StrmTrckrMiami... The Surge analysis for your area has not been run as of Advisory number 25.

The Surge/ Slosh/ MEOW... whatever you wish to call it is run ahead of the Storm about 36 to 48 hours. Right now it only extends to the Lower Bay,NY on the SW end of Long Island,NY.

This will progress over the day to a point where your area is in the data run and plotted.

Dougyd. You are correct with your observations and analysis. This storm is a bit different than what we are accustomed to in the SE US. The path is parallel to the Coast and Irene has a huge wind field.
Long hours, possibly 24 hours of high winds blowing water into bay, sounds and estuaries will pile up the water. In addition Astronomical High Tides will add to the water pile up.
The water/ surge should slowly recede after Irene's Center passes by.

I have not seen mention of the Jet Streak that is forecast to develop on the NW Quad of Irene in the next few days. This is forecast to aid Irene in maintaining a lower barometric pressure. Which will keep the storm at a steady state longer.
This Jet Streak was analyzed by a NWS office in Pennsylvania yesterday according to the Weather Channel.

Here's a continuously updating Hurricane Local Statement link to your Local NWS Office. Just click on the Office nearest your location.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/index_hls4.shtml