danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Wed Aug 31 2011 01:21 AM
Re: Watching Katia and an Area in the Northwestern Caribbean

The area in the NW Caribbean is moving into the Yucatan Channel area.
Current radar from Cuba indicates a low level spin. Only four frames, or so, but the spin is evident.



Buoy pressure dropped to around 29.78 at it's lowest. Or about 1008.5 mb at Buoy 42056.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056&unit=E&tz=STN

This system will need to be watched closely over the next week as the current GFS indicates it may become 'cutoff' from the steering flow and drift in the Northern and Northeastern GOM. Extreme rainfall is forecast at the current time, over the Coasts of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and the FL Panhandle and into the Western Florida counties in the next 5 to 7 days.

There are several models taking several different tracks. With the GFS being the most extreme at this point. I'm using the 18Z GFS model for Tuesday August 30th.



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