Random Chaos
(Weather Analyst)
Wed Aug 31 2011 04:13 AM
Re: Watching Katia and an Area in the Northwestern Caribbean

RE: Gulf area - That 18Z GFS run is...interesting. While it is technically possible, I don't see that specific track as likely. Even if it does happen, storms that track back over their own path tend to weaken due to the earlier reduction of the SSTs. It's really too far out for guestimates still needs watching since anything could really happen given the temperatures in the Gulf right now.

For Katia, the GFS has been consistently showing Katia as a fish spinner, heading north and possibly affecting the Newfoundland. Also too far out for more than guestimates.

Long range GFS from NCEP - http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appco...=MODEL+GUIDANCE


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