Eye has become clearly visible on Katia in the last hour of IR passes. ADT raw T number is up to 5.4 with the eye now visible, which would be consistent with 95-100kt winds. Given original speeds of 85kt at 11am NHC update, in 2.5 hours that increase is plausible. AdjustedT numbers are still 4.8 by ADT, only because they require consistent higher raw T numbers to increase, which would be 85-90kt, or consistent with the 11am guidance.

I want to note that the 0Z NOGAPS has joined the UKMET is showing a non-recurving westward track. Still waiting on the 12Z NOGAPS and ECMWF. 12Z GFS is continuing to show recurvature, while 0Z ECMWF is showing a slower recurvature. Everyone needs to continue watching this storm.