Update 4:30 AM EDT 21 August 2012
Invest 94L has acquired sufficient convective organization to be classified as a tropical depression, and advisories will begin shortly on Tropical Depression Nine.
TD9 has a solid structure with which to build on, and is now efficiently fending off dry air entrainment. Consequently, further development is likely, and Nine will probably become Isaac later this morning, or afternoon.
Invests 95L & 96L continue slowly organizing. With 95L just south of Texas, and at least a 30% chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm within the next 48 hours, this is the most concerning of the two. 96L is following on the heels of Nine, but is several days away from becoming any potential threat to land masses.
Discussion on (now) TD 9 has been lively in the Forecast Lounge .
12:30 PM EDT 20 August 2012
Gordon passed through the Azores early this morning still a hurricane. Few weather stations exist far out in the eastern Atlantic, but the airport on Santa Maria island recorded a 1-min. averaged ("sustained") wind of about 65-70 MPH, with a peak gust of 80.
Gordon continues winding down today, and should be pretty well sheared out within the next 48 hours.
South of Texas, Invest 95L has become a little more convectively active today, and provided it remains offshore, further development is possible. This trough has about a 30% chance of becoming a tropical depression within 48 hours, per NHC.
Invest 94L has weakened out in the Central Atlantic, which increases the odds of it traveling more west, than north. As such, interests in the eastern Caribbean may want to begin paying close attention to it.
Now in the statistical heart of the season, and it has already been a very active year so far, waves are rolling off western Africa one after another, as we are now in the "Cape Verde Season." Invest 96L is the next wave up, located south of the Cape Verde islands, and movement is to the west at around 15-20 MPH.
5:00 PM EDT 19 August 2012
Hurricane Gordon is en route to pass through the eastern Azores Monday in the far eastern Atlantic before becoming extratropical by Tuesday afternoon, and likely shearing out soon thereafter, before whatever is left of it nears Portugal and Spain.
Gordon will likely be a minimal hurricane or very strong tropical storm as it crosses the Azores early Monday, and interests in and near the islands should take necessary precautions for very strong winds and high waves.
Some of the remains of former Helene have coupled with a developing surface trough over far eastern Mexico, and have pulled offshore today, now being tracked as Invest 95L. 95L is showing a few signs of gradual organization, and it has a chance, about 20% per NHC, of becoming a tropical depression within the next 48 hours.
Invest 94L in the central Atlantic is becoming much better organized, and it appears that a tropical cyclone is very close to forming. NHC now gives 94L a 70% chance of becoming a tropical depression within the next 48 hours, and this could be conservative. Movement is to the west or west-northwest at around 20-25 MPH.
Discussions on the future of 94L are heating up over in the Invest 94L Forecast Lounge.
8:00 PM EDT 18 August 2012
Hurricane Gordon is nearing Cat 3 status as of the 8 PM Advisory. Winds now estimated at 110 mph. Gordon is located 525 miles WSW of the Azores.
5:15 PM EDT 18 August 2012
Helene has moved inland over eastern Mexico, and has weakened considerably, now barely a Tropical Depression. The remnants of Helene will be watched over the next few for the potential of getting back out over the western Gulf of Mexico.
Gordon is now a powerful Category 2 hurricane with maximum sustained winds estimated at 105 MPH. Gordon will probably maintain as a hurricane throughout its passage near or over the Azores in about 30-40 hours, and then is expected to begin decoupling and transition into a weaker extratropical cyclone before it reaches western Europe.
Invest 94L is the next potential named system we are following, now located near 13.5N 32W, and is moving slightly north of due west at around 20 MPH. Odds are favoring 94L becoming a tropical depression by Monday night.
5:24 PM EDT 17 August 2012
TD 7 has regenerated into Tropical Storm Helene. Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect from Barra de Nautla to La Cruz,MX
4 PM EDT 17 August 2012
It appears that the remains of Tropical Depression 7 may have regenerated back into a tropical cyclone; watches and warnings may be initiated shortly.
Seven is now approaching the Mexican coastline, presently centered near 20.5N 96W, and is moving generally west-northwestward. Recon is en route to the center of the incipient cyclone, and NHC should have good, useable data within the hour.
3 AM EDT 17 August 2012
Closest to the states, former TD-7 is back over water, now in the extreme southwestern Gulf of Mexico, and is slowly starting to reorganize. It is possible that 7, in whatever state it finds itself back in, will actually be around for several days along or just offshore of eastern Mexico and/or extreme south Texas. As such, even if it does not become a tropical cyclone again, it will bring the potential for flooding rains should it linger.
Tropical Storm Gordon is now very nearly a hurricane, and is expected to cross the Azores as a strong tropical storm late Sunday or early Monday.
Invest 94L is now being tracked in the far eastern Atlantic. This very broad, elongated wave has an abundance of moisture to work with, and we will have lots of time to keep an eye on it.
7 AM EDT 16 August 2012
Tropical Depression 8 was upgraded to Tropical Storm Gordon this morning, and continues to move away from most land areas, only the Azores may have to worry about it as an extra tropical system early next week.
Outside of Gordon, it is still very quiet for mid August.
Tropical Depression Eight has formed in the Central Atalntic, and is moving north and out to sea already. It is expected to become a Tropical Storm, and may near the Azores later as it heads back eastward.
Elsewhere it is very quiet for mid August.