| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Oct 03 2013 04:43 PM |
Re: Tropical Karen forms in Southern Gulf, Hurricane & Tropical Storm Watches Issued
|
Quote:
Yes, I can definitely make out the lower level vorticity (RGB Sat) to the west of the main convection, which convection appears to be waning at the moment. However, at the same time, the overall outflow is definitely improving. An amateur question, but . . . Could the emerging outflow make it more likely that convection will re-fire closer to the center and/or contribute to some stacking near the prospective eye? (assuming sheer remains constant)
We have to be careful with our assumptions on the outflow.
TPC overlays: Low, Mid, and High levels, but there are many intervening layers that can impose shear. The fact that the center has moved out W and convection and new/on-going convection did not collocate, "might" be an indication for an intervening layer of shear already impacting the vertical depths of the cyclone.
I am not totally certain of that either, but I have noticed a few times in the past where the overlays did not present shear, but TPC points out shear during their updates. I would not be surprised if they mention some rip off taking place in their next discussion.
Edit: Actually upon discretely analyzing the hi resolution visible imagery, I can see towers on the NE side of the low-level circulation, moving SE. That would be consistent with an unfavorable mid level vector impacting from the NW.