berrywr
(Weather Analyst)
Thu Oct 03 2013 09:26 PM
Re: Tropical Karen forms in Southern Gulf, Hurricane & Tropical Storm Watches Issued

Let me add...those of us in this line of work are always careful as to what type of analysis we're doing. There's NOWCASTING which is exactly what the name implies...right now which is perfect for severe weather because that's happening in real time so every little aspect of a given weather situ is poured over with fine tooth brush. We'd do the same thing as we get within a day of landfall of any of these systems...now, we don't care what's going on on these extreme microscale analysis of vortices, what these clouds look like...none of that matters. What does are these large processes that are on a synoptic scale...big stuff. Tropical Storms/Hurricanes and Upper level Longwaves/Shortwaves are like magnets repelling each other but at the end of the day Longwaves and Shortwaves win out...that's the shear we see on these analysis way up in the atmosphere where these winds will shear the tops off any developing thunderstorms and these systems cannot deepen. These little structural changes undergoing are of so little significance given the overall synoptic pattern. If this was a major storm, oh you bet it would matter and this gov't shutdown would take on a whole new meaning if one of those were out there but it's October. At this point we can't rule out it becoming a hybrid or subtropical as we towards the weekend. Right now it's a sheared system as evident on visible satellite imagery. Check our Facebook page out... its FLHurricane.com there.


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