6AM 2 July 2014 Update
Arthur has begun a more northerly motion overnight, and has strengthened a bit to a 60mph tropical storm.

The official forecast takes it close to the coasts of South and North Carolina, so new watches have been issued, ad the tropical storm watch for Florida was dropped south of Sebastian (But remains north of Sebastian to Flagler)

The new tropical storm watches are from the s. Santee River in South Carolina to Bogue inlet in North Carolina.

A Hurricane Watch is up for Bogue Inlet North Carolina to Oregon Inlet in North Carolina.

Another Tropical storm watch goes from Oregon Inlet to the Virginia Border.

Arthur still is rather dry on the west side, which means it won't be felt much here in Florida except for right along the east coast, it should move away from Florida later today. Arthur likely will hold around the current strength today.

The official track is going to be a very close call for the Outer Banks of NC in the hurricane watch area, which would have its closest approach on July 4th.

1AM 2 July 2014 Update
About two hours ago at 02/03Z Arthur developed an eye. This suggests that Arthur may have become a small compact hurricane but on rare occasions a strong tropical storm can develop an eye. Recon is currently enroute to examine the cyclone. Movement is now to the northwest at about 7 knots.
ED

10:30PM EDIT 1 July 2014 Update

Arthur's convection is mostly on the south and east tonight, but it is beginning to fill out on the north It looks like the NHC track is very good. The strong band coming in from Florida is a unique part of the satellite image right now.

It still has dry areas on parts of the north and west.

6:30PM EDIT 1 July 2014 Update

Tropical Storm Arthur continues to be quasi stationary east of Florida about 85 miles ESE of Cape Canaveral. Recent recon reports has found it to be stronger, and the center a bit south of the 5PM position. No changes with the tropical storm watches, but those in the Cone ahead of Arthur may want to watch it closely, especially with the current strengthening trend.

6:45AM EDIT 1 July 2014 Update
The second month of the Atlantic Hurricane season begins will a slow moving tropical depression east of Florida, about 95 miles off the coast from Cape Canaveral.

This system is forecast to stay offshore of Florida, but it will be breezy along the coast, with some rain bands coming in over the next day or two. The moisture is lacking in the northern part of the system, so until the storm wraps around more the rain will likely be only in short bursts over the peninsula. News is relatively good for Florida impacts, other than poor beach/marine conditions along the east coast. The northwestern Bahama islands are getting the heaviest of rains today.

There is a slight risk for smaller, short-lived tornadoes from the bands if the heavier rain manages to wrap around later.

Strength wise it's held the same overnight, but likely will become Tropical Storm Arthur later today. The official forecast takes it to Hurricane strength in 72 hours, when it nears the coastal area of North Carolina. Which could mean that hurricane watches may be up along the southeast coast of North Carolina July 3rd/4th around the Independence holiday, although anyone in the cone should keep very up to date with the system over the next few days. It may pass by closest to NC overnight Thursday into Friday, as once it gets picked up, it's likely to move out quickly.

The system is a relative small storm, so the worst impacts will only be felt very close to the center, and if manages to stay just east of the coast passing toward North Carolina, it won't be bad. That's a big if, since there is still some uncertainty in the short term movement, but anyone in the cone needs to pay attention to it regardless.

There may be a point, likely tomorrow or Thursday, where the storm strengthens somewhat rapidly, so be aware, especially those along the coast in South and North Carolina. It should move out to sea after that.

Original Update
The system being tracked had a impressive burst of convection late tonight that was enough to seal the deal to becoming the first tracked tropical system of the year in the Atlantic, Tropical Depression One.

Tropical Storm watches are up along the east coast of Florida from Ft. Pierce north to Flagler Beach.

The official forecast keeps much of the southeast coast and east coast of Florida in the Cone, but the main track is mostly east.

Event Links:

Dare County, NC Emergency Management

Eastern Carolinas Power Outage Map (Duke Energy)

Carolina Webcams (roughly south to north)
Myrtle Beach Earthcam
Holden Beach, NC Cam
Wrightsville Beach, NC Cam
Emerald Isle, NC Cam
Surf City, NC Pier Cam
Morehead City, NC Harbour Live Cam
Oriental, NC Harbor Cam
Cape Hatteras Lighthouse Cam
Multiple Outer Banks Traffic Cameras
Mutiple other Outer Banks Cams
Twiddy's Beach Cam OBX
Kill Devil Hills Pier Cam
Nags Head Cameras

East Florida Webcams
Daytona Beach Cam
Daytona Beach Cam 2
Satellite Beach Cam
Melbourne Beach Cam
Orlando near Universal Cam
Port Canaveral Webcam
New Smyrna Beach Cam
Ponce Inlet Cam

Long term florida radar recording (started 3:15PM 6/30/2014)

Mark Sudduth and Jessie Bass from HurricanteTrack will be venturing around the Outer Banks during Arthur

Flowing Wind Map

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