| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Mon Aug 07 2017 03:49 PM |
|
Re: Franklin in the W Caribbean and 99L Problems
|
Interesting debate going on among knowledgeable people, and I come down on the side of the lowest minimum pressure being found inside an incipient eye (which is also confirmed by Recon). Recon has also found winds that support a maximum intensity at or above 55 MPH, which operationally is reasonable to round to 60, as it is likely the strongest winds inside Franklin have not been sampled.
As per the first Vortex message
Quote:
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 48kts (~ 55.2mph)
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles)
The time of this, the first (inbound) center fix, was 17:20:10Z and located the surface center at 17.9833N 85.2W. Rounding the center location to 18N 85.2W plots the verified lowest surface pressure center at the time of the fix well within the south side of the alleged developing eye.
It does look like some dry air has been entrained, and that may limit Franklin's initial attempts at a more robust period of intensification, but based on recon data it seems plausible that the suspected developing eye is mostly exactly that, and not a 'sucker hole.'