(Weather Master)
Mon Sep 04 2017 11:44 AM
Re: Irma Recon Begins in Earnest. Also Watching SW Gulf Low and E Atl Wave

Irma will most likely move into the GOM as the trend continues... we will have a decent idea by the 00z runs tonight with the additional data (but that usually doesn't change things to much). Couple questions in the near term is who gets a direct hit in the Lessar Antilles... St Maarten, Tortola, Antigua and St Thomas look to have a direct path impact.. and NE PR near San Juan and to its east.. then Turks. Question by Thurs will this hit Cuba on Friday or stay just north of it. Too early to speculate that far even with the models since today is Monday.. but again each day will give us a better idea. GOM chance seem realistic.. we have seen this many times where the models shift west on a more westward moving system before a turn to the north in days 5-7. I know we don't guess here,(especially after 5 days) but I would give the GOM a 50% Florida 30% and east of Florida 20% out of 100% as of right now.

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