Thu Oct 05 2017 10:07 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Nate Forms near Nicaragua

For Nate, This type of setup usually translates to a very weak western side and a really strong eastern side, especially factoring in the additive for the east and negative on the west impact of the fast forward movement toward windspeed. Water vapor satellite is probably the best shear indicator in the short term.

Tomorrow is the day to watch to see how organized it gets, while over the waters of the West Caribbean north of Honduras, if it manages to take advantage of the warm water there and get organized, you could see it rapidly intensify at times, and then possibly get sheared up a bit in the north Gulf, but not quickly enough to lessen impacts. Since it'll be moving quickly north in the Gulf, the east side will likely see the worst (by far). How strong depends on how much it evades shear and tomorrow.

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