I don't have time to go into all of my reasoning right now - but a readers digest of some of it - very juicy air, very warm and some fairly deeply warm ssts, reduced shear to under 25 knots over a very large area and under 15 in a considerable area, a little difluence, a noticeable perturbation if not gentle cyclonic turning in and around 850mb.. and maybe lower, generally supportive sea level pressures, etc. This bubbling-up has many potential makings of a new Invest on the way, should current trends continue for a while longer, and frankly, I find the couple of model runs turning this into a tropical cyclone or near-tropical cyclone entirely plausible.