Possibly a somewhat fortuitous development this afternoon, with Alex now showing signs of veering west sooner than expected. Obviously if this continues, Alex would make landfall south of Texas. However, it is critical to remember that a tropical cyclone is not a precise point, and flash flooding is already underway in central Texas in advance of Alex, mostly due to related moisture surges in advance of Alex interacting with an upper level low and daytime heating.

Should Alex indeed make landfall south of Texas, much of south/central/eastern Texas would still likely remain in the dirty side of the cyclone, with copious rainfalls occurring over relatively widespread areas -- very possibly through the entire rest of the week and into the weekend. Flash flooding could easily become prolific. Finally, it is not yet certain that the bulk of Alex will push into Mexico.