| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Oct 29 2010 03:10 AM |
|
Re: Perky Late Season Atlantic: 90L, 91L, 92L
|
Quote:
am really starting to worry about the potential of a major hurricane in the central Caribbean in just a few days
I'm right there with you on that. I would probably break down 91L's prospects roughly along these lines:
Top max sustained winds within 91L during the next 7 days (personal best guess odds):
Less than 39MPH: 5%
39 - 50 MPH: 10%
55 - 70 MPH: 25%
75 - 90 MPH: 15%
95 - 110 MPH: 25%
Over 110 MPH: 20%
Or put another way, 95% odds of becoming a named storm, 35% odds of then maxing out as a TS, 60% odds of actually becoming a hurricane, and even 20% odds of becoming a major hurricane, within the next 7 days.