Wed Jul 05 2017 10:04 PM
Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season?

Tropical Meteorology Project (Colorado State's Philip J. Klotzbach, Michael M. Bell and, in memoriam, William M. Gray) released their July update today, and while only a step up from their June release, it is a jump from their April issue.

Incidentally, if you are not already following Philip Klotzbach on Twitter, you really need to do so. Much of the information I share here comes directly from his shares, and by following him, I guarantee you will glean invaluable information and insight into this and many a season, spanning oceans and decades.

The Colorado State team now anticipates a total of 15 named storms (NS), 8 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes in the Atlantic basin this year. That would include the three named storms we have seen already. Their justification for the increase is as follows

We now anticipate an above-average Atlantic basin hurricane season.The odds of a significant El Niño in 2017 have continued to diminish, and most of the tropical and subtropical Atlantic remains anomalously warm.The lack of El Niño conditions typically leads to a lower shear environment in the tropical Atlantic, while a warmer than normal tropical Atlantic provides more fuel for developing tropical cyclones. In addition, a warmer than normal tropical Atlantic is generally associated with lower surface pressures, increased mid-level moisture and weaker trade winds, creating a more conducive dynamic and thermodynamic environment for hurricane formation and intensification.

With the July update came their best analog years, which are as follows: 1953, 1969, 1979, 2004, 2006 and 2012. The average season totals of these years is 14.2 Named Storms, 8.2 Hurricanes and 3.3 Major Hurricanes, with an ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy) value of 133, which also implies an above-average season.

The complete July update is available here (PDF).

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