Mon Jul 10 2017 01:40 AM
Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season?

As of July 10, 2017, the Atlantic basin continues running well ahead of climatology, with three named storms to date.

As a forecasting tool for the season as a whole, pre-season named storms, such as Arlene, tend to mean little. But the wide view of the year-to-date, with already three names before August, is inescapable. 2017 has the 'look and feel' of an active season, with the Tropical Atlantic especially supportive of development. As noted above, case-in-point, Tropical Storm Bret being the earliest storm formation on record in the MDR (Main Development Region).

Image below: Progress of the average Atlantic season (1966-2009). Date upon which the following number of events would normally have occurred. (Credit: NHC).

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