Tue Aug 22 2017 03:32 PM
Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season?


Aside from the relatively active season, the storms have all been fairly weak. The most recent invests failed to develop. Rather than a late August/early September peak, will this season peak more in the September/October period? I haven't looked at the satellites recently (little time these days), but are there more waves progressing across Africa that may be potential areas of development?

We've had a number of names, but most have been weak sauce, keeping ACE low so far for the season. But why? It appears that the greatest single culprit has been anomalously low instability. However, this could be trending back to average now in several parts of the basin - and just in time for the mid Aug - mid Oct "peak."

Waves keep coming (and this has actually been a busy year overall for African Easterly Waves).

There are some large scale features that could quiet the basin down - at least in terms of intensity - during the second and third week of Sept (absolute climo peak!), but then ramp right back up later in Sept and into October, as considered above.

As of Aug 22, we still have over 3/4 of the season ahead, climatologically speaking .. and much more than that if just considering Hurricanes and Majors.

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