(Storm Tracker)
Thu Sep 21 2017 08:56 AM

What's interesting about this year is what it portends for the 2018 season.The ENSO neutral condition's we're experiencing now have contributed to the lower shear environment across the basin. With this knowledge it's worth mentioning the La Nina forecast for this winter and potentially what could carry over into next season. I have linked the latest La Nina forecast:

If this forecast pans out we could see this hyperactivity for the duration of this event. La Nina cycles can last up to two years. For readers who are not aware of the effect of La Nina on Hurricane activity in the Atlantic I offer this:

'Dr. William Gray at the Colorado State University pioneered research efforts leading to the discovery of La Niña impacts on Atlantic hurricane activity, and to the first operational long-range forecasts of Atlantic basin hurricane activity. According to this research, the chances for the continental U.S. and the Caribbean Islands to experience hurricane activity increases substantially during La Niña.'

As to the rapid intensification of these storms this year I will have to let someone more knowledgeable speculate on that.

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