BullitNutz
(Weather Watcher)
Thu Jul 14 2005 04:47 AM
Re: Could Emily go the same way as Charley?

Ok, from those maps, it seems that unless a storm comes in North of the Antilles on a rather oblique angle, or is sufficiently strong enough, Florida (at the time of these maps) is shielded. Emily's current strength predisposes her to the control of the 850mb map, which seems to sling her right towards the Yucatan, and if she deepens in a hurry (+30mph winds in a day, like today) she'll head more towards Central America, but in her current position, the streams could present a shearing effect, placing a damper on her strength development.

If I'm reading these correctly, and I think I am, the Isotachs are like Isobars, read a bit like a topo map. The closer the lines are together, the "steeper" the differential is. If she doesn't pick up strength, she'll accelerate towards the Yucatan, and by force of inertia, most likely end up crossing it and end up impacting Texas as a TS or low Cat 1.

Like you said, the question requires a Met to be answered authoritatively, but those maps have definitely given me an insight as to the atmospheric "powers that be."
Thanks.



Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center