If it plays out that way perhaps the states get off lucky and watch as the cape verde storms run into all kinds of pain before they ever get this far - that might be nifty, for a change of pace

Speaking of ENSO, if anyone hasn't already had a chance to read it, Stu Ostro & Dr. Lyons took a good look over the history of La Ninas as they related to any increase in hurricane activity, and in their estimation it wasn't necessarily the presence of the La Nina that was favorable for active Atlantic basin seasons, as much as it was just the lack of an El Nino. Stu Ostro blogged about it a while back if anyone wants to give it a read. (Link)