MikeC
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(Admin)
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Mon Aug 20 2007 09:29 AM
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92L Forecast Lounge
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Here's a place for the speculation and gut feelings on what will occur with 92L.
Florida? Carolinas? Further North? Out to sea?
Where do you think it will go?
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dsawyer78
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(Registered User)
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Mon Aug 20 2007 09:41 AM
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Re: 92L Forecast Lounge
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My guess is that it will come ashore around Charleston, SC and then continue through the Piedmont region of NC and move right up the east coast.
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Unregistered User
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(Unregistered)
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Mon Aug 20 2007 09:41 AM
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Re: 92L Forecast Lounge
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I'm curious, the image at http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/archive/model/AL922007mlts.gif?159569788 indicate the invest is coming out of the north WEST of the Caribbean, but the SSD image (which looks to be the mainpage image) has it out off the north EAST. I'm assuming what I can see is correct, but in case I'm missing something...
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MikeC
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(Admin)
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Mon Aug 20 2007 09:45 AM
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Re: 92L Forecast Lounge
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Skeetobite image is lagging updating right now it'll fix itself within an hour or so, but right now it's showing an "older" 92L and not the new one at all.
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Re: 92L Forecast Lounge
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I am so not an educated weather person here, but I think it all depends on the steering and strength of the high. I live in West Palm Beach, and am traveling to New York this week, so I will be watching behind me to see if I need to rush back.......
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flnelson
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(Registered User)
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Mon Aug 20 2007 11:10 AM
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Re: 92L Forecast Lounge
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I think we have to wait until the GFDL and UKMET runs are available before any suppositions can be intelligently made.
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saluki
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(Weather Hobbyist)
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Mon Aug 20 2007 11:19 AM
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Re: 92L Forecast Lounge
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Mike's preliminary "cone of error" (Miami to Cape Hatteras) looks good to me right now. Will this develop, and will the ridging be strong and persistent? If the answers are yes, my gut feeling says we'll especially need to watch this from my neck of the woods (Broward County) up through the Space Coast and Daytona Beach. Way too early to tell for sure, though.
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Re: 92L Forecast Lounge
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So this is the forming system that everyone was talking about yesterday that has nothing to do with Dean but is going to affect Florida?? I live in Miami right now, and the weather is at 83 degrees which is cool and the wind effect definatly adds to this. We are shown to have thunderstorms all of this week, so what do you think 92L will do? Are you expecting this to be a TS? Hurricane? What? because I just want to be prepared.
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Ed in Va
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(Weather Master)
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Mon Aug 20 2007 11:50 AM
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Re: 92L Forecast Lounge
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A bit more early reads on track and intensity of 92L:
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/
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craigm
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(Storm Tracker)
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Mon Aug 20 2007 12:04 PM
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Re: 92L Forecast Lounge
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Strmtckr, Intensity is difficult to forecast with young systems. One parameter Mets use is shear which keeps storms from developing vertically. This link shows shear tendency decreasing ahead of 92L. Just how much this one factor will allow this (potential) storm to develop remains to be seen.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.html
I think I am seeing some vorticity around 24N 59W on the RGB loop.
Hard to believe things have gotten this active in a matter of a couple of weeks. Could that be a function of the MJO?
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Re: 92L Forecast Lounge
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Well at last - CMC have been whittering on about potential Felix since 1200z 08/16/07, and now there is beginning to be a hint that they weren't on crack after all!
I have been watching it with interest for days and so I have to stick with the CMC route through into the GOM, although that would be a very unfortunate direction given the SSIs in there - and it would be tracking through a different, and still hot, area to Dean.
Hopefully it will zing off into the Atlantic to spin some fish.
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Brian B
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(Registered User)
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Mon Aug 20 2007 12:36 PM
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Re: 92L Forecast Lounge
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I would like to see some of the model runs later today before we can really get a good estimate of the track forecast. Looking at some of the models this morning and the satellite images, I'm very interested in how the deep layer ridge is going to be progressing over the next day or two. There doesn't seem to be much upstream that will kick it out of the southeast anytime soon. The upper low north of Montana has a few vort maxes coming around but it looks like everything is going to ride around the high to the north. Looking at the upper level vorticity, the ridge seems like it will either break down and reform a little further westward, or just continue on its westward track, allowing what should be named Felix at the time to move westward towards the coast. My biggest concern is timing. Timing of the ridge movement, and timing of the shear relaxing are going to be vital to the track of this storm.
I have a particular interest in this storm as my sister just got married this past weekend and they went on a cruise for their honeymoon. they were supposed to go to belize, jamaica and the rest of the western caribbean, but thanks to dean, they're going to key west and the bahamas. I'd really hate for this one to mess up the rest of the cruise for them.
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MikeC
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(Admin)
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Mon Aug 20 2007 04:01 PM
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Re: 92L Forecast Lounge
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This is in the lounge because I can't find too much to back it up with, but here's my crazy "not enough information yet to sound right" thinking:
From the very early model runs and trends, looks like highest probability is Central Florida, followed by south Florida, then Georgia, and also a "stall out" if something takes too long, most likely it'll shoot across the peninsula around Central Florida and end up in the Gulf.
Skeeto's down this afternoon, too, not sure why.
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LisaC
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(Weather Watcher)
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Mon Aug 20 2007 04:30 PM
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Re: 92L Forecast Lounge
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my uninformed guess would be close you Mike's with west palm to daytona as "landfall" my question is what are we really watching though. This afternoon it doesn't look as good as it looked this morning.
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jcvitte
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(Registered User)
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Mon Aug 20 2007 04:54 PM
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Re: 92L Forecast Lounge
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If it did enter mid-state Fl. and exit into the GOM, that would be a scary prospect for the folks in Texas or La. I would think. We could use more rain for the water table here in Pasco Co. What is your thought about where it may go after that, or is it just too early to tell? I thought I noticed more circulation yesterday afternoon. Seems more disorganized today, but as I have observed, that is no indicator. Can't even begin to tell you, how much I have learned by watching this site, you guys do a great job.
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Lee-Delray
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(Weather Master)
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Mon Aug 20 2007 05:23 PM
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Re: 92L Forecast Lounge
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Looking at the models it seems they are tracking 92L from its southern side. From what I am reading the best chance for development is on the northern side.
???????????
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Re: 92L Forecast Lounge
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Yo Mike, in your mines eye, if this system was to impact us in central Florida, what would be the time line. ( this question goes out to the other Mets also).......Weatherchef.
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Brian B
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(Registered User)
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Mon Aug 20 2007 06:02 PM
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Re: 92L Forecast Lounge
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If it stayed at its current speed, probably about 3-4 days. More than likely, it would be closer to 4. It doesn't look impressive at all this afternoon. There is not much, if any, circulation and it is getting sheared apart pretty well right now.
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Re: 92L Forecast Lounge
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Wife is flying out of Sanford early Thursday, and coming back on Sunday. What's the thought on how it will affect her? Very new at this, but I think we in Northern Florida are past due for some nasty stuff. Thanks all, appreciate the info you provide here.
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Unregistered User
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(Unregistered)
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Mon Aug 20 2007 08:51 PM
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Re: 92L Forecast Lounge
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I presently live in the western upstate part of SC and own a home in Orlando as well, which I was planning on going to this weekend. I just looked at the map of 92L and I am having Charley flashbacks. I know tropical is nothing compared to a category 5 but after going through 10 days without power or water one feels compelled to panic. If this storm does hit the spacecoast think it will already be advanced to a hurricane by then?
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Re: 92L Forecast Lounge
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10N 40W looks more interesting than 92L. Water Vapor
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Wxwatcher2
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(Storm Tracker)
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Mon Aug 20 2007 09:12 PM
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Re: 92L Forecast Lounge
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Quote:
I presently live in the western upstate part of SC and own a home in Orlando as well, which I was planning on going to this weekend. I just looked at the map of 92L and I am having Charley flashbacks. I know tropical is nothing compared to a category 5 but after going through 10 days without power or water one feels compelled to panic. If this storm does hit the spacecoast think it will already be advanced to a hurricane by then?
I don't think 92L is going to be a "Charley" event. As a matter of fact, most Floridians if they are honest would tell you that we will lay out the welcome mat for a tropical low to come visit us. We are so hot and dry here and desperately need something to give us some relief.
Come on down to Florida, the weather is Hot / Humid and the AC is on !!
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Storm Hunter
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(Veteran Storm Chaser)
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Mon Aug 20 2007 09:40 PM
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Re: 92L Forecast Lounge
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just an early forecast guess.. with the data i have and looked at, i'm inclined to think this is a east coast system IF IT DEVELOPES.... to where, i am not quite sure yet... South Florida would be first choice... I'm still thinking the wave coming through the Islands to south of 92L is what some models were picking up on the last few days...
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gsand
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(Verified CFHC User)
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Tue Aug 21 2007 08:35 AM
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Re: 92L Forecast Lounge
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I'm curious about the following loop: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-wv.html
Last frame it appears to me that there is a center around 19N 72W, not farther N. Anyone else see this and am I right? I admit to having a lot to learn.
If true, and if it develops, then I'd say this might be a Keys or S Florida event.
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JAH
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(Registered User)
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Tue Aug 21 2007 08:53 AM
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Re: 92L Forecast Lounge
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gsand,
Welcome!!!
What you are looking at is an upper level low. Tropical systems are lower level low pressure systems.
The circulation in a lower level low is near the surface of the ocean. That's what feeds a tropical system.
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allan
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(Weather Master)
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Tue Aug 21 2007 10:22 AM
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Re: 92L Forecast Lounge
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Actually the only reason why 92L is not going anywhere (development wise) is becasue the wake of Dean is hindering it. Shear is only 5-10 knots and it's in a very favorable environment.. once Dean is out of it's way, i'm 99.5% positive that this will develop given to the current conditions it is in.. so don't write it off yet, just wait and see what will happen in a few days.
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Unregistered User
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(Unregistered)
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Tue Aug 21 2007 10:31 AM
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Re: 92L Forecast Lounge
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92l is now history as of NRL unless something happens to spin up on something left behind by the ULL that has according to the wv loop has made a mess out of that whole area. Other area's of question is this mass S of 15n around 49w. Does anyone have data on whether this area has any low associated with it because it has not been mentioned by NHC as of yet. Also, there seems to be a blob of moisture being left behind Dean to the E-SE of his location. I only bring this up as a question to whether it is possible for something to develop in Deans wake, becasue the way I see the wv loop, if the ULL to its N clears it would seem to want to move poleward. Any thoughts? I1
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