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craigm
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(Storm Tracker)
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Wed Aug 20 2008 12:08 PM
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Gustav Lounge
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Fay was certainly an interesting warmup for the rest of the season. Although as I am writing this I know some of you are still feeling her effects or are about to in the next couple days. Turning our attention back on the basin there was a great discussion this morning out of NWS PR regarding how ripe the environment is across the basin and into the caribbean:
http://www.weathercarib.com/080820-discussion1.txt
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mmellc
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(Registered User)
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Wed Aug 20 2008 08:20 PM
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Re: 94L and beyond
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I have been watching the disturbance to the east of 94L. It appears to have begun some circulation and organization. It will be interesting to watch.
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Re: Fay Loves Central Florida
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well, 94l is moving slowly but i can spot a little bit of circulation. here we go again florida 
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MichaelA
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(Weather Analyst)
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Fri Aug 22 2008 11:22 AM
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Re: Fay Loves Central Florida
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94L's convection has decreased this morning. The two areas to the SE of 94L seem to be holding up fairly well, though. 95L (40W; 18N) is moving along at quite a good clip. Lots of moisture south of 15N btwn 35W and the windward islands. Plenty of "soup" there to boil and bubble.
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Re: Fay Loves Central Florida
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it just has the makings of fay. looks like it atleast. now its tropical storm bumper cars.
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MichaelA
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(Weather Analyst)
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Fri Aug 22 2008 04:05 PM
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Re: Fay Loves Central Florida
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The area near 53W; 11N looks better this afternoon. NHC has the entire region circled as having pretty good potential for development.
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Unregistered User
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(Unregistered)
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Fri Aug 22 2008 04:17 PM
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Re: Fay Loves Central Florida
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South Florida water management shows 94L is being tracked with models. It looks to be aimed at South Florida.Jus wondering why our local mets haven't mentioned this?
https://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page?_pageid=2854,19644915,2854_19644936:2854_19645022:2854_19645029&_dad=portal&_schema=PORTAL
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Ed in Va
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(Weather Master)
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Fri Aug 22 2008 04:20 PM
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Re: Fay Loves Central Florida
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Most of the models are currently showing it going into the Gulf
http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/picservice.asp?t=m&m=94
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Unregistered User
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(Unregistered)
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Fri Aug 22 2008 05:19 PM
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Re: Fay Loves Central Florida
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Thanks Ed! Sorry, I guess I was looking at 95L. Total novice here. Either way though, both of them aren't being mentioned. Usually we hear about them for days. Just wondering why.
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B_from_NC
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(Verified CFHC User)
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Fri Aug 22 2008 05:32 PM
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Re: Fay Loves Central Florida
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That area will most likely be marked red this evening. With the upper level windflow diminishing and the area beginning to ramp up what appears to be a circluation, we very well may have a new TD tomorrow AM and Gustav shortly thereafter...
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Re: Fay Loves Central Florida
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yeah it is starting to look like so sadly. im following this area of low preassure closely. it looks like it is starting to tighten up. and all the computer models point to bad luck for florida. starting to look like 04 for us all over again. i think b from nc might be accurate. although, our news channel weathermen are playing this down. whether it is because of fay or not, i recall back when we got hit with the trio, the ones that came after they were quiet about. i suppose they dont wanna throw any red flags up considering the atlantic basin is highly unpredictable this season.
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Lee-Delray
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(Weather Master)
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Fri Aug 22 2008 08:14 PM
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Re: Fay Loves Central Florida
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It is too early to say where 94l is going. It's already 160 miles further east then the models have it (Dr. Masters on Wunderground). If that is correct, it will most likely go into the Gulf. Sadly, in that bath tub the storm may really ramp up.
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Re: Fay Loves Central Florida
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right, however it goes into that gulf, all it takes is one of the many fronts moving through to spike the ENE movement thus looping west to east as well. either that or louisiana it is. either way i dont like the looks of it.
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weathernet
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(Storm Tracker)
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Fri Aug 22 2008 09:58 PM
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Might Gustav like Jerk Chicken?
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94L has really taken on a nice tight appearant turning in the last few satellite frames. Rather hard to see unless one look at a Rainbow, JSL, or perhaps IR ( without color enchancement ) due to the bursting convection taking place as of this post. At the seemingly low latitude of approx. 10N-12N, the 18Z model consensus seems to very much favor a "close call" with Jamaica in 96-120 hr's. No doubt a great many Club Med'er's, vacationing Hedonists, and island folk might want to keep a watch to the southeast for this one. Interestingly, from a Climotology Model link ( http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~acevans/models/al942008_climo.png ), it is even more interesting to see that of 7 Climotology applicable tracks, 5 continue on thereafter, to visit the Sunshine State ( that is, before Fay arrived ).
That said, I took a gander at the available 96hr. - 160 hr.'s -18Z GFS ( 500mb ), and from looking at the forecasted steering, one could not help but think tthat the closest that "Baby Gustav" could come to the U.S., would be by maybe sneaking up on S. California, via crossing Central America. At the moment, sure looks like a nice big 'ol ridge over the southeastern U.S..
It is curious how once again, the typically reliable EURO has been consistantly ( over several runs ) trying to bring a significant TC into or threatening the Greater Antilles. Conversly, the GFDL has been very unimpressed with 94L, until the 18Z run. Now it has also jumped on the bandwagon, and will wait to see some 0Z model consistancy here - as well as perhaps the WRF model.
I believe that 94L might just really "ramp up" fairly quickly. I say this because of the fact that it is late August, upper air seems conducive, and the fact that current satellite presentation is fairly impressive. The fact that a big majority consensus of models happen to bring 94L right up to a Tropical Storm in 6-12 hours, is fairly compelling too.
95L does not impress me, by appearance of satellite. I am concerned however given the fact that Fay formed at a slightly high latitude, and although the limited convection with 95L is presently around 18N, it would not surprise me at all for altogether new convection were to start blowing up by tomm. a.m., along the wave axis - but forther south perhaps closer to 15N. Seems like a strong surge of moisture with a lot of vorticity coming with this wave. 
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MichaelA
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(Weather Analyst)
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Sat Aug 23 2008 12:34 PM
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Re: Might Gustav like Jerk Chicken?
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94L has a lot of convection firing today, but still no discernible organization. It is a bit South to be getting organized very quickly. Convection has fired up with the wave in the Eastern Caribbean to the West of 94L so far today and 95L looks a bit more organized today as well. Lots of potential areas to keep an eye on out there.
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Ed in Va
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(Weather Master)
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Sat Aug 23 2008 12:43 PM
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Re: Might Gustav like Jerk Chicken?
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Anyone else notice this on the Canadian model...is has 94L, I guess, crossing Cuba, with another storm at the same time moving towards the SE. I haven't seen it anywhere else.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cg...;hour=Animation
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MichaelA
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(Weather Analyst)
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Sat Aug 23 2008 12:54 PM
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Re: Might Gustav like Jerk Chicken?
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It is the only model that is developing both 94L and 95L (more for 95L). It doesn't look like any of the other models have gotten a good grip on either of them. However, there is a consensus that 94L would end up over Hispaniola/Cuba/Bahamas.
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scottsvb
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(Weather Master)
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Sat Aug 23 2008 01:06 PM
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Re: Might Gustav like Jerk Chicken?
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To be honest I'm not thrilled about 94L, it may have a chance in the western carribean but its no threat really right now to the Gulf. Its weak, has no NW winds and if anything models are begining to come inline with the GFS on a weak system. Vis imagry suggests the LLC is near 61.5W way west of the T-Storm complex. Now that's not saying a new LLC might form later tonight. The newer CMC 12z run shows little if anything until Jamaica but I dont like the CMC anyways.
95L does have a better chance to develop, although with that said, there is no threat to anywhere as of right now.
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weathernet
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(Storm Tracker)
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Sat Aug 23 2008 02:12 PM
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94L vs. 95L race
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95L may indeed form quicker, at least with regards to area of "open real estate". Its only problem may be forward movement and outrunning itself. 94L could be having issues with convergence, given proximity to S. America. Latest Quickscat shows what might appear as an alongated fully closed low, but perhaps over Trinidad. Models that do want to develop it, or forecast motion, insist on a WNW to NW motion, but for now would assume maintaining a overall westward march with the low level flow ( at least until it gets its act together ).
As for the Canadian model..............., I saw how the 12Z run really ramps this baby up and heads it to just south of Central Cuba. When I see the majority of other models not pick up on development, especially the most relable ones, I simply choose to not even look at the CMC model. I have developed the opinion of this model that, if a lone person on a sailboat in the middle of the Atlantic were to spray an aresol can......, that the CMC model would likley pick up on it and evenually develop THAT into a hurricane as well. I just do not know what the over all value of this model is, with regards to tropical cyclogenisis ( unless perhaps usefull for future motion, once developed....). Would certainly be interested in any MET's insights with regards to this model's current beneficial use. 
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LoisCane
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(Veteran Storm Chaser)
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Sat Aug 23 2008 10:48 PM
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Re: Fay & Future Features
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Like to hear a little bit about the future features.
94 and 95 are interesting in models.
CMC has them almost colliding to the east of Florida and the GFDL and HWRF duke out different scenarios.
Meanwhile, 94 is way too low and 95 seems high though with the big, strong high I think 95 will get further west than we think as most systems have this summer.
They are both 2 question marks hanging over our future as Fay rains herself out finally, we could have trouble of the same kind in a week or so.
(Post moved to the appropriate Forum.)
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MikeC
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(Admin)
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Mon Aug 25 2008 09:54 AM
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TD#7 Lounge
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TD#7 has formed, so this topic has been renamed to reflect that.
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Re: Development in Central Caribbean Likely Today
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well im not sure. with the blue track on the spaghetti models, looks like fay #2. too early to tell though, i guess we will have to keep an eye on it, florida. :/
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LoisCane
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(Veteran Storm Chaser)
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Mon Aug 25 2008 10:18 AM
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Re: Development in Central Caribbean Likely Today
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Most the tracks have him moving slow which would say to me he is going to be very strong by the time he gets wherever he is going. And, climo would favor an Allen sort of track though not saying he will be like Allen but more like Allen then Fay unless he suddenly climbs poleward.
Really could use some model's to pull together.
Rare to see a storm down there so well put together.. nothing like Fay in that. At this rate it could.. I said COULD have an eye in 12 to 18 hours tops.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/tropical/rain/allen1980.html
What bothers me with the tracks is the forecasted slow movement, he has been going at a pretty good clip.
A lot to think on this storm.. like some feedback.
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ftlaudbob
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(Storm Chaser)
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Mon Aug 25 2008 10:27 AM
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Re: Development in Central Caribbean Likely Today
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Another thing to remember is,if it does get to be a powerful storm we could get the polar affect.This looks like a busy week.The conditions out in front of it look ideal for intensification.
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Re: TD7
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The NHC forcecast track has TD 7 going NW while the storm seems pretty doggedly heading more due west.
It looks to me like the last 2 GFDL model runs may not have initialized TD7. The 082418Z model run (the major hurricane in the Yucatan Channel run) seems to be the only recent run that depicted what seems to be working out in reality.
This could be a scary storm. Another example of a 2008 system challenging the NHC experts?
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JAH
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(Registered User)
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Mon Aug 25 2008 11:32 AM
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Re: TD7
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Quote:
This could be a scary storm. Another example of a 2008 system challenging the NHC experts?
At least the NHC noted that the day 4 and 5 forcast is not held in high confidence.
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sososleepy
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(Registered User)
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Mon Aug 25 2008 11:47 AM
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Re: TD7
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To my untrained eye, that last sattelite image sure looks like it has an eye....
The weather folks on TV used to talk a lot more about surrounding weather features and how they move the storm, but all the speculation quieted down in the last couple of years. Where do you folks think this thing will go over the next week and some, and why? Thanks.
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ftlaudbob
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(Storm Chaser)
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Mon Aug 25 2008 01:33 PM
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Re: TD7
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Looks like we have Gustuv,recon should confirm this.I for one am hoping the forecast track changes,but that High should keep it on a general track towards S. Florida.I am not liking this storm,for many reasons,mainly for what appears to be rapid intensification and the potential track also the low wind shear around the system.I am in full storm mode now.
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RevUp
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(Weather Guru)
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Mon Aug 25 2008 05:57 PM
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Re: TD7
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The only thing we know for sure is this is going to bring a lot of rain to Haiti and D.R. in the short term. I believe NHC track is too far north. After looking at satellite trends and model data - long term - I think it's more likely for Gustav to take a more westerly track south of Cuba toward Yucatan channel and then into the Gulf. Short term, I think the TUTT to the NW will be a big player, limiting further development and organization in the upper levels. Gustav won't strengthen much for a few days yet, and may weaken some, especially as it interacts with TUTT and land to the north. This is going to be another one of those storms to keep our attention through Labor Day.
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JMII
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(Weather Master)
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Mon Aug 25 2008 07:08 PM
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Re: TD7
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Quote:
I believe NHC track is too far north. After looking at satellite trends and model data - long term - I think it's more likely for Gustav to take a more westerly track south of Cuba toward Yucatan channel and then into the Gulf.
I agree. The NHC has shifted its track west twice already, currently Gus looks to follow in Fay's footsteps.
The Water Vapor loop shows how its being compressed by the High to the north so until that moves out of the way its going to limit development and cause the storm to slide west. Early on Gus looked to blow up with great circulation and an "eye like feature" but now it looks more like a typical tropical storm (bit ragged, not symmetrical)
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pcola
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(Storm Tracker)
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Mon Aug 25 2008 08:38 PM
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Re: Development in Central Caribbean Likely Today
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wow..the latest gfdl and hwrf models are consensous, with a cat 3-4 hurricane just northwest of the western tip of Cuba next sunday...both looking at under 935mb....the gfs is still not getting a grip in the system...it also looks like a weakness in the ridge on the gfdl steers the storm towards the central gulf coast....no more little tropical storms..for the first time this year we may be looking at a big storm
(Post moved from the Main Page - model discussion belongs in the Forecast Lounge. See the 'Clarification' post in the Site Updates, Suggestions and Questions Forum.)
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Old Sailor
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(Storm Tracker)
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Mon Aug 25 2008 10:03 PM
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Re: Development in Central Caribbean Likely Today
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It seems to me that over the years( 80) or so with me, That Labor day weekend can bring trouble at someone's Door step. Looking at the Models my gut feel is that Gustav will end up in middle of the gulf ..
Tx,La, MS AL and Florida panhandle. lets not forget west costal FL..
(Post moved from the Main Page - model discussions belong in the Forecast Lounge. See the 'Clarification' post in the Site Updates, Suggestions and Questions Forum for guidance.)
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Robert
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(Weather Analyst)
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Mon Aug 25 2008 10:42 PM
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Gustav
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its possible its heading is a bit to the left. not due west wnw but i have to see a bit more if she is getting strong jogs could happen. Espessially when down around hati those mountains are so high sometime systems will go right around them. Fay for example seemed to just pin wheel all around them and cuba till she found a flatt spot. Plus We cant rule out the fact some models are forcasting a west turn soon so that the first thing to look for if no west turn start looking at models that didnt forcast it. I like the NHC track right now so im not going to budge unles some real consolidation of the models happen, or its just obvious one has a better handle then the rest. It is interesting how 95L and the remenents of Fay are going to play into this. Im Waiting for fay to move i belive that fay and gustave should create a weakness in the ridge over florida and gustav should head are way short term. After that there are 2 scenarios that a anticlyclone over florida pushes gustav west as fay gets pulled out of the picture, and 95L follows. or the anticyclone is not as strong as thought evrything gets pulled out, Fay,gustav, 95l goes northwest and then out. then maby breather for a few days till something else pops.
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scottsvb
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(Weather Master)
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Tue Aug 26 2008 01:34 AM
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Re: Gustav
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I'm going to make a very early and quick forecast for Gustav. I dont see any reason why this wont head to the western gulf of mexico. The trough coming thru later this week into the weekend is just going to be too weak as most of its energy will be going thru the great lakes and new england.
With that said, This system is a threat from Lake Charles, LA - northern Mexico. A strong ridge is forecasted to remain over the eastern U.S. thru early next week and this pattern has been consistant.
The only slim chance this will affect S Florida is for this to move far enough north in the next 24-36hrs to be at least 100 miles north of Cuba, This is highly unlikely due to the ridging over the central bahamas.
scottsvb
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JMII
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(Weather Master)
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Tue Aug 26 2008 08:24 AM
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Re: Gustav
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Another big shift to the west in the models/track (as predicted), looks like a GOM storm is more likely. Alot of dry air to the north, Gus will avoid that by continuing to slide to the west. I know nobody wants this, but things are pointing to a major storm in the Gulf by the weekend.
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ftlaudbob
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(Storm Chaser)
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Tue Aug 26 2008 08:39 AM
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Re: Gustav
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Still heading NW not WNW,it needs to start moving more westward if it is to take the NHC forecast track.If it does not start a more westward shift soon,than the forecast track will shift back to the right.
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pcola
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(Storm Tracker)
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Tue Aug 26 2008 08:54 AM
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Re: Gustav
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the latest gfdl and hwrf models have Gustave as a major hurricane by Sunday...with the GFDL on Monday having it south of Mississippi/LA.......both models seem to be fixed on the central Gulf Coast , with NO right in the middle...looks like a long weekend of college football and Gustav watching
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Rob Moser
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(Verified CFHC User)
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Tue Aug 26 2008 09:21 AM
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Re: Hurricane Gustav, Strengthening, Approaches Hati
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Fox News has it going to a cat 5 in days.....
Just what we need.... early panic.
Rob
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MikeC
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(Admin)
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Tue Aug 26 2008 09:29 AM
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Re: Hurricane Gustav, Strengthening, Approaches Hati
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Quote:
Fox News has it going to a cat 5 in days.....
Just what we need.... early panic.
Rob
It's possible given the setup, some of the models indeed do show a stronger hurricane than is forecast by the NHC (see here).
To hype it up is a different thing altogether (and we aren't going to here), but the potential is there to be something very nasty when it gets into the Gulf. However, I have no clue where it will eventually end up or what shape it will be. But has a good shot at it around 84 hours out if the track verifies, Probably around a 40% chance.
Once it clears Cuba, it should be watched extremely closely and it has the potential to be a dangerous storm. Check model trends, and pay attention to the NHC forecast closely through the week.
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ftlaudbob
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(Storm Chaser)
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Tue Aug 26 2008 09:47 AM
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Re: Hurricane Gustav, Strengthening, Approaches Hati
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A couple of the models have shifted to the right,the longer it moves NW and not WNW,the better chance we will see a shift back to the east and north in future NHC forecast tracks.
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scottsvb
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(Weather Master)
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Tue Aug 26 2008 09:58 AM
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Re: Hurricane Gustav, Strengthening, Approaches Hati
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what models and post links please. For this to affect Florida it has to get north of Haiti-Cuba over the next 24hrs or so.
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pcola
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(Storm Tracker)
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Tue Aug 26 2008 10:10 AM
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Re: Hurricane Gustav, Strengthening, Approaches Hati
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Have seen no models shifting right of Cuba...some of the BAMS have come east from a central america landfall to be in line with the gfdl and NHC track....this is a gulf storm, and very possibly a western gulf storm.
(Off-topic comment removed.)
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ftlaudbob
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(Storm Chaser)
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Tue Aug 26 2008 10:17 AM
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Re: Hurricane Gustav, Strengthening, Approaches Hati *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*
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This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard
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Re: Hurricane Gustav, Strengthening, Approaches Hati
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agh, i think it will shift east. keep in mind how rash and quickly these tracks change. this isnt 1990 anymore where they were more dead on with the spaghetti models. the atmosphere is highly unstable so its making things more hard of a read. and plus we have like 3 other disturbances out there and it looks like gustav is playing bumper cars with 95l. :X
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JMII
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(Weather Master)
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Tue Aug 26 2008 10:21 AM
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Re: Hurricane Gustav, Strengthening, Approaches Hati
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The models all show a general NW motion till Weds, then a run of nearly 24 hours DUE west, moving Gus thru the gap between Cuba and Jamacia. The models (and NHC) are very good within a 3 day window especially when all of them agree. Once again the water vapor loop shows a good push coming from the north of Gus's current position, so that will limits its northern movement. Basically it will hit a wall at about 20 N, then have no choice but to go more west. There is a weakness to the east of FL (in the Bahamas) that provides a window for northern motion but that window does not open till Gus gets to atleast 80 W which will take till Thursday at his current speed.
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ftlaudbob
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(Storm Chaser)
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Tue Aug 26 2008 10:28 AM
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Re: Hurricane Gustav, Strengthening, Approaches Hati *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*
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This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard
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scottsvb
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(Weather Master)
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Tue Aug 26 2008 10:34 AM
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Re: Hurricane Gustav, Strengthening, Approaches Hati
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BOB you said the models shifted east, you have to support it with links. There are no models that shift it east at this time. Just cause its moving NW and might say it @11am doesnt mean it will stay that way. Models have been showing it moving NW until later tonight. Again the only chance this has to make it to south florida is for this to make it far enough NW to be north of Cuba by tomorrow morning. I highly doubt that, but a very strong system might make that happen (30%)
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Re: Hurricane Gustav, Strengthening, Approaches Hati
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Mike,
I live in Baton Rouge, La. and have become very nervous by the looks of the track this morning. I know it is a long way off, but I was wondering if you see anything that could happen to make this storm move away from Louisiana?
We are still recovering from Katrina and the thought of another major hurricane is quite frightning.
(For all new users to the site - use the Private Message capability whenever you wish to correspond with another site user.)
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LoisCane
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(Veteran Storm Chaser)
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Tue Aug 26 2008 10:40 AM
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Re: Hurricane Gustav, Strengthening, Approaches Hati
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Models will shift back and forth a bit even though they seem consistent now.
It's better to watch the movement of the storm and compare it to the short term part of the models
to see how they are playing out.
One always breaks from the pact.
Some of these models refuse to develop it just 24 hours ago when it was not yet classified. To me that's a red light I worry on.
Watch 3 day, keep your eye on 5 day range and keep watching the storm itself!
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Re: Hurricane Gustav, Strengthening, Approaches Hati
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Looks like the latest GFDL is forecasting Katrina Part II. It has Gustav with 145 mph winds, 150 miles southeast of New Orleans, LA at 12Z Sunday...ironically, the day after the three-year anniversary of Katrina. I would say the entire Gulf Coast is under the gun at this time and we could be looking at a major U.S. landfall next week.
(Post moved from the Main Page - model discussions belong in the Forecast Lounge. See the 'Clarification' post in the Site Updates, Suggestions and Questions Forum for guidance.)
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ftlaudbob
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(Storm Chaser)
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Tue Aug 26 2008 11:19 AM
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Re: Hurricane Gustav, Strengthening, Approaches Hati
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If this thing,and it is a big IF,makes it into the GOM than it could become a monster cane.But if it stays on it's current track than South Florida could see a cat 2 or cat 3 cane.
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Unregistered User
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(Unregistered)
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Tue Aug 26 2008 11:25 AM
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Re: Hurricane Gustav, Strengthening, Approaches Hati *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*
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This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard
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Re: Hurricane Gustav, Strengthening, Approaches Hati
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CanWatcher, the 11am advisory and forecast path has the easternmost part of the 5 day cone touching florida. while it isnt a direct hit it still has it in the cone.
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ftlaudbob
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(Storm Chaser)
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Tue Aug 26 2008 11:38 AM
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Re: Hurricane Gustav, Strengthening, Approaches Hati
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Yup,still heading NW,we may see a shift to the east on some of the next model runs. If it does not turn more west very shortly than they will have to shift the track a little further east.Remember models change a lot with these stormsIt is important to note that conditions are always changing,what we have now is just a snap shot.
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Ed Dunham
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(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
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Tue Aug 26 2008 11:42 AM
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Admin Note
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While this Forum is not as strictly moderated as the Main Page thread and the Storm Forum, some of the basic posting rules still apply. If you wish to thank someone or respond to a specific individual, use the Private Message capability - CFHC is not a Chat Room.
The one line post rule still applies, i.e., don't make them - there are very few exceptions to this. Don't simply state the obvious. One-line posts consume bandwidth and that can become a problem when the site gets busy - and the site is starting to get busy.
Don't get into an argumentative discussion with someone - take it off thread via the PM capability.
Your help on these items will allow the site to manage the processing burden and prevent it from crashing.
ED
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Ed in Va
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(Weather Master)
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Tue Aug 26 2008 11:51 AM
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Re: Admin Note
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Need a little clarification on the possible interaction betwee G and other systems. From the 11 NHC, there are actually two other potential systems...95L and the one east of it. Actually, the NHC gives the east one a higher chance of development.
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Unregistered User
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(Unregistered)
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Tue Aug 26 2008 12:06 PM
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Re:
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Looks like this could be "Katrina Two" in the making. I'm a structural engineer that moved to Biloxi from Tampa after Katrina and have been to all of the areas hit by hurricanes since Charlie except for those in Texas. While the speeds posted by the NHC is one thing, another possibly more important consideration, is the "size" of the storm. I observed far more "wind" damage from Charlie than Katrina even though Katrina had ten to a hundred times the devastation and size. While watching where this storm goes and the intensity of the wind, I wish there were a way to more accurately predict the size and swath of the storm's surge. Cat 3's are not supposed to have 30 foot surges but it happened. With the potential path of Gustav having plenty of time and distance to push the water towards the coast, my bet is that the storm surge from this hurricane may unfortunately be the story again.
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Re:
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Quote:
Looks like this could be "Katrina Two" in the making.
Please be very careful about making these kind of alarmimg posts. To this point there are very few similarities to Katrina and it is VERY far away from Louisiana. I usually wait until the moderators here (who are mostly what I would call experts) make that kind of comparison before 'going there'. Otherwise, it just freaks some people out and people get freaky enough about these storms. Gustav is a nicely formed little storm that will shake up Haiti and the south coast of Cuba the next couple days. Beyond that there nothing that is for sure. Anything is possible, from a cat 5 to it blowing itself out and disappearing.
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Unregistered User
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(Unregistered)
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Tue Aug 26 2008 01:51 PM
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Re:
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I apologize if the post seemed alarmist. The point of the post was to pay attention to the storm surge and not focus on the wind speed only.
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Robert
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(Weather Analyst)
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Tue Aug 26 2008 01:56 PM
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Cat3 30' storm surge
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(Off topic 'Katrina' post was deleted.)
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scottsvb
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(Weather Master)
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Tue Aug 26 2008 02:04 PM
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Re: Cat3 30' storm surge
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Bob I still dont see any model change that you said in the 12z runs. Nogaps did but thats been off this year. Still a path towards the west then across the western tip of Cuba towards the western gulf seems likely and not florida,although they keys will probably gets some feeder bands.
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pcola
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(Storm Tracker)
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Tue Aug 26 2008 02:05 PM
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Re: Cat3 30' storm surge
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the new gfdl has Gustav heading toward the central LA coast as a cat 4.....one of the keys is how far west the storn tracks in the next 48 hours before heading northwest again.....the GFDL takes the storm to near Gitmo then due west for a day or so.....with the ridge bulding to the north, one would say a farther west track pushes the storm toward Texas...more east towards Mobile....it is all going to depend on how strong the ridges are
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ftlaudbob
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(Storm Chaser)
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Tue Aug 26 2008 02:18 PM
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Re: Cat3 30' storm surge
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Quote:
the new gfdl has Gustav heading toward the central LA coast as a cat 4.....one of the keys is how far west the storn tracks in the next 48 hours before heading northwest again.....the GFDL takes the storm to near Gitmo then due west for a day or so.....with the ridge bulding to the north, one would say a farther west track pushes the storm toward Texas...more east towards Mobile....it is all going to depend on how strong the ridges are
Can anyone explain why it has not turned more west yet?It is already off the earlier NHC forecast track.I would think that if it does not make the turn tonight,all bets are off.Wonder if it is going to ride the outer ridge of the High.This could start to get a bit tricky later tonight and tomorrow.
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pcola
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(Storm Tracker)
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Tue Aug 26 2008 02:24 PM
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Re: Cat3 30' storm surge
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the ridge is not expected to build until later today..the Gfdl track has Gustav continuing northwest to Cuba before turning west....it is not far off the NHC track either, but the models due take it west in the next 12-24 hours
Looking at the latest sat imagery, Gustave is moving west northwest
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Re: Cat3 30' storm surge
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Gustav has the potential to eventually become a major hurricane, but currently only rhe GFDL is forecasting that sort of intensity. The 12Z HWRF has backed way off from its previous runs, apparently because of increased land interaction along the forecast path compared to previous runs. SHIPS has yet to forecast Gustav to reach major hurricane status and actually suggests weakening by around 4-5 days. None of the global models do much with Gustav and seem to be more interested in the other disturbances currently out there in the Atlantic.
Right now, it is mainly climatology (past history) and the GFDL that argue for Gustav becoming a major hurricane (assuming of course it does not get hung up over land). Both are compelling reasons to be concerned, but it should be noted that the forecast guidance as a whole is sending mixed signals about Gustav's ultimate fate.
Calling Gustav a "potential Katrina" is extremely premature. There have been literally hundreds of "potential Katrinas" in the last 50 years, but only one real deal.
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WeatherNut
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(Weather Master)
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Tue Aug 26 2008 04:30 PM
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Re: Cat3 30' storm surge
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I believe the west turn has already begun over Haiti. If fact, following the center as best I can on vis sat...there is now almost a wsw direction. The center looks to be hugging the south coast right now and if this motion continues, it might be over water south of Haiti which does not bode well for Jamaica.
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JMII
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(Weather Master)
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Tue Aug 26 2008 04:45 PM
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Re: Cat3 30' storm surge
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The 2PM models have tweaked slight and now have the storm closer to the southern Cuban coastline. Overall it looks like the high is digging further SE which might open the window to turn N sooner then forecast. However for now the models are all still in agreement up until Friday AM, then things start to spread out. As time moves on the real question is if the flow over FL now will help reinforce the high and keep Gus down south as it moves west. The NHC seems to think so... and they are the experts so I tend to agree with them. Further down the road even the models can't figure out what will be happening out in the Gulf, thus everyone in the from west FL to east TX needs to pay attention. Should have much better picture of things come early Friday AM.
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ftlaudbob
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(Storm Chaser)
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Tue Aug 26 2008 04:53 PM
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Re: Cat3 30' storm surge
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Quote:
I believe the west turn has already begun over Haiti. If fact, following the center as best I can on vis sat...there is now almost a wsw direction. The center looks to be hugging the south coast right now and if this motion continues, it might be over water south of Haiti which does not bode well for Jamaica.
GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH
The 5:00 update is out and it is STILL moving NW.We will have to see what happens tonight,as far as the movement goes.She still looks very healthy and SHOULD be back over water tonight.I think most people thought she would have made that westerly movement by now.If she is still moving NW on the 11:00 update,I would imagine we will have a track change.
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pcola
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(Storm Tracker)
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Tue Aug 26 2008 04:59 PM
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Re: Cat3 30' storm surge
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Gustav is going in a more wnw direction..it still says northwest because of the position over the last 4 hours. not what is actually happening now....and it is heading very close to forcast track
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ftlaudbob
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(Storm Chaser)
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Tue Aug 26 2008 05:04 PM
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Re: Cat3 30' storm surge
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Quote:
Gustav is going in a more wnw direction..it still says northwest because of the position over the last 4 hours. not what is actually happening now....and it is heading very close to forcast track
The info came from recon as far as what direction she is moving.When there closer to land recon will spend a lot of time in the system.So the wind speed,pressure and direction is pretty accurate.So as of 5pm she is still heading NW.
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pcola
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(Storm Tracker)
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Tue Aug 26 2008 05:18 PM
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Re: Cat3 30' storm surge
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Gus is turning to the west though..the heading at 5 was 305 degrees, vs 315 degrees yesterday and 310 this am.....when its heading is 300 degrees or less, it will officially be wnw, and over the last hour that is evident..also, the last to position plots show movement .2 degrees north, .4 degrees west...........
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Hugh
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(Senior Storm Chaser)
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Tue Aug 26 2008 07:06 PM
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Re: Cat3 30' storm surge
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Quote:
Gus is turning to the west though..the heading at 5 was 305 degrees, vs 315 degrees yesterday and 310 this am.....when its heading is 300 degrees or less, it will officially be wnw, and over the last hour that is evident..also, the last to position plots show movement .2 degrees north, .4 degrees west...........
If I didn't know better, looking at the AVN satellite loop, I'd say Gustav's LLC was trying to reform southwest of Haiti, back in the Caribbean. It's a very odd looking storm right now. Convection does not appear to have weakened overall, but only over the land areas (not surprising)... so it will be very interesting to see what the overall impact is to the core.
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pcola
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(Storm Tracker)
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Tue Aug 26 2008 07:17 PM
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Re: Cat3 30' storm surge
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the latest gfs still does not show an intense storm, but it does show Gus heading into the gulf, but farther east than the gfdl....that should be available shortly
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Hugh
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(Senior Storm Chaser)
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Tue Aug 26 2008 07:31 PM
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Re: Cat3 30' storm surge
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As long as the models continue to flip flop back and forth, there's no telling where it is going to go.
The GFS is interesting, but too weak I believe.
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DonaldT
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(Registered User)
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Tue Aug 26 2008 08:00 PM
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Re:
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Quote:
Looks like this could be "Katrina Two" in the making.
God, I hope not....
I don't think Louisiana could deal with that a second time.
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pcola
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(Storm Tracker)
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Tue Aug 26 2008 08:06 PM
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Re:
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just because a hurricane gets in the gulf, it is not katrina..it happens every year...Katrina was a very sprcific set of circumstances
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Hugh
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(Senior Storm Chaser)
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Tue Aug 26 2008 10:24 PM
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Re:
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It appears that Haiti is currently winning the battle versus Gustav, but how long that will last remains to be seen. What's that big blowup of convection over Puerto Rico? And, is it just me, or is Gustav not really moving at all right now?
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Unregistered User
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(Unregistered)
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Tue Aug 26 2008 11:02 PM
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Storm structure
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I have been lurking for a few years reading the info on this site and have always wondered something, which may be coming into play with Gustav. Gustav has been a fairly small and compact storm from it's birth, yet I believe it is starting to grow in size even though it is getting weaker over land. Was wondering if any mets could chime in and comment on whethere land interaction could aid in the growth of a storm's size at times. My theory is that the compact storm gets disrupted, thus causing the wind field to expand. Once back over water it may take a bit more time to consolidate again, but could make the storm grow in size?
Point I am trying to make is..if Haiti or Cuba does not kill the storm, it may actually make it bigger. A bigger storm could cause the models to change.
I may be way off track, but we are all trying to learn here.
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New Orleans again?!
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The 11PM forecast has Gustav as a Cat 4 hurricane within 72 hours. As for the projected track, it now aims almost directly at New Orleans.
I sure hope that New Orleans has rebuilt and that this time the city and the state will begin immediate preparations for a major hurricane possibly making landfall on or near New Orleans.
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LoisCane
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(Veteran Storm Chaser)
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Tue Aug 26 2008 11:14 PM
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gustav looking strange on loops
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Often when a storm like Gustav hits the mountains of Haiti and land mass they tend to bounce off "funny" and not always where you expect them to. There is something about the interaction with land and especially in an area like this where the land mass isn't big and suddenly it's in the water again. The path of a storm has to be smoothed out over time.
Radar from Cuba looks like it has started moving wnw however it's a hard radar to read and he is still dealing with the effect the sudden interaction with land had to his center.
Both in strength and size and we need to wait it out a few hours, six or so to see just what Gus is all about.
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Re: New Orleans again?!
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I was looking at ths same thing with New Orleans. Since I have been living in Florida, I would never wish a Hurricane on anyone else but neither do I want it.
I was wondering does anyone have any information on the other 2 medium potential storms that the NHC is showing. I was wondering what you all thought the probability of them forming into more of a Hurricane status would be.
Starting to remind me of 2004 when we had so many storms come up.
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Unregistered User
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(Unregistered)
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Tue Aug 26 2008 11:56 PM
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Re: Storm structure
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THE AVERAGE MOTION OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS IS 290/07...ALTHOUGH THE
MOTION OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS HAS BEEN ALMOST DUE WEST. THE PRIMARY
STEERING MECHANISM FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS WILL BE THE LARGE MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS...WHICH
IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY NORTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF IS ALSO EXPECTED TO
BE A PLAYER AND ACT TO SLOW DOWN GUSTAV BY DAY 5. THE EXCEPTIONS
ARE THE GFDL AND ECMWF MODELS...WHICH BLAST GUSTAV NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH THE UPPER-TROUGH TO THE TEXAS COAST. THIS SEEMS PHYSICALLY
UNLIKELY AT THIS JUNCTURE.
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Unregistered User
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(Unregistered)
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Wed Aug 27 2008 12:07 AM
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Re: gustav looking strange on loops
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Posted from Bob Brecks blog, NOLA weather forecaster
""However, tonight's run of our VIPIR model (yes we pay Baron's Services to use it) indicates Gustav will make a northward turn on Friday across Cuba and head up the west coast of Florida. To me. our key day will be Friday. By then Gustav will either be heading where NHC puts it (still not in Gulf) and by then we'll need to start making decisions. IF VIPIR is correct, then the danger will be more to our east. The 3rd scenario could take Gustav farther to the south into the Yucatan.""
http://bobbreck.blogspot.com/
personnally not a big fan of viper but like some models every now and then it gets one right...
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ftlaudbob
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(Storm Chaser)
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Wed Aug 27 2008 12:23 AM
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Re: gustav looking strange on loops
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OK,i'll say it.Going by the NHC forecast this COULD be worse than Katrina for New Orleans.I know the mods will jump down my throat for this,but most of us are thinking the same thing.I am going by the NHC forecast.God help them there.
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MichaelA
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(Weather Analyst)
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Wed Aug 27 2008 12:23 AM
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Re: Storm structure
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Re: hwood
Gustav is a small, compact system. The central core may expand a little due to the interaction with Haiti, but once clear of that influence, should tighten up and intensify rapidly again. Small storms like this seem to be more sensitive to nuances in the steering currents than larger storms (re: Charley) and tend to be more variable in intensity - they "pulse." Gustav is going to be very interesting to watch over the next few days and will, I believe, be a very dangerous storm.
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MikeC
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(Admin)
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Wed Aug 27 2008 12:23 AM
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Re: gustav looking strange on loops
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Just a note, I"m not trusting any of the models until it gets past Cuba. I truly do not think New Orleans will happen this time, maybe much further west/south than currently suggested by the models based on trends (maybe closer to the Yucatan).
However that's all lounge. Again, I'm waiting until it passes Cuba a bit before I would bet on it.
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MichaelA
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(Weather Analyst)
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Wed Aug 27 2008 12:29 AM
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Re: gustav looking strange on loops
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I'm just watching to see how the high plays out over time and where that trough is going over Texas/western GOM goes. That SWesterly flow over the GOM still concerns me. Gustav's small size will make it more susceptible to larger scale patterns than it would if it were a much larger system.
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scottsvb
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(Weather Master)
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Wed Aug 27 2008 12:32 AM
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Re: gustav looking strange on loops
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GFS now consistant on a eastern gulf-florida thing, interesting but like Mike has said, lets not trust 1 model. I feel the next 24hrs will be important for a few reasons. 1, the direction Gustav is going. Will it be W, WSW, or even WNW still like the GFS says.2, over the next 24 hrs which model stays consistant and how much do the rest change? 3, how much land interaction with then Cuba comes into play. Lets all just watch it for the next 24hrs. There is no reason to guess who in the gulf will be affected and how strong it gets.
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Unregistered User
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(Unregistered)
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Wed Aug 27 2008 12:34 AM
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Re: gustav looking strange on loops
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The 0Z GFS has the upper system centered up at 40/62 (the big one at 500MB ) getting south enough...erroding the backside of the 588 high over Florida.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_000m.gif
This pops down the mid/upper high enough to release Gustav into the eastern Bahamas....then the ridge builds back to the east...trapping Gustav on a WNW track through the keys and into the SE Gulf.
I think...think this is a result of the GFS finally getting a handle on the initial intensity of Gustav (way too shallow before). I would initially write it off as a "bad run"...but if the other models start calling for an erosion of the EASTERN part of the high almost right away...then we could see some of the largest forecast errors in the last decade.
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Re: gustav looking strange on loops
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Yes, anything is possible and many people are thinking along the lines you are but keep in mind...it really is way too early to attempt to place a landfall in any one area along the Gulf Coast. The forecast track and the "cone" will most likely change back and forth.....this is not set in stone yet...not even to mention modeling...
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Storm Hunter
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(Veteran Storm Chaser)
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Wed Aug 27 2008 02:14 AM
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Re: gustav looking strange on loops
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whats the deal with the GFDL... does it have a thing for New Orleans?? like stewart posted... think it and a few others are too fast on there movement in the GOM.. noticed how the bams suite slowed down... the were the first to pick up the on fays eventual turn.... but way far off on location that it would happen... the trough coming through the central gulf coast seems to be the factor that will turn Gustav towards the coast... but timing and evloution on this.... is luck casting this far out... I do not like the look at the latest data on the loop current... where gustav is headed 
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bjm519209
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(Registered User)
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Wed Aug 27 2008 02:28 AM
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Re: gustav looking strange on loops
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Quote:
whats the deal with the GFDL... does it have a thing for New Orleans?? like stewart posted... think it and a few others are too fast on there movement in the GOM.. noticed how the bams suite slowed down... the were the first to pick up the on fays eventual turn.... but way far off on location that it would happen... the trough coming through the central gulf coast seems to be the factor that will turn Gustav towards the coast... but timing and evloution on this.... is luck casting this far out... I do not like the look at the latest data on the loop current... where gustav is headed
I'm sorry i just like to read these things bu i was just wondering what coast are you mentioning here ? And is everyone starting to think this storm could come further to the east now. ? that seems to be what i am reading. Sorry i don't have alot of knowledge about this. like i said i just like to read and pick up what i can.
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Unregistered User
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(Unregistered)
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Wed Aug 27 2008 08:20 AM
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Re: gustav looking strange on loops
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Mike- Im so glad that you feel like New Orleans landfall is not going to happen! I live in Baton Rouge, La.
The cone of uncertainy will drive us all crazy over the next few days!
I do have a question- Our local mets here are saying that this is one of the smallest hurricanes they have seen so is there a chance that the storm could grow in size? if so what makes the storm grow?
Thanks and have a nice day!
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ftlaudbob
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(Storm Chaser)
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Wed Aug 27 2008 08:52 AM
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Re: gustav looking strange on loops
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Seems Gus is giving the NHC fits.Here we are at almost 9am.and he is still heading NW.Gus did not do what the NHC thought it would do,proving once again that these storms have a mind of their own.Given that it is STILL heading NW,all bets are off.
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JMII
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(Weather Master)
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Wed Aug 27 2008 08:54 AM
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Re: gustav looking strange on loops
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Quote:
I'm just watching to see how the high plays out over time and where that trough is going over Texas/western GOM goes. That SWesterly flow over the GOM still concerns me.
Me too! The flow over the Gulf sure makes it looks like any storm that tried to move north now would just be swept back to the EAST and wind up on the west coast of FL. However the models all seemed to point to LA (not good!!!) and have shifted back south to the gap between Cuba and Jamaica like before. Thus the current thinking is the high will fill-in over FL and block Gus, keeping him below Cuba till Saturday.
Gus slowed and weakened overnight... it looks like instead of pushing west he just hit the wall (at 20N) and stopped. Outflow is good on the southern half so if he gets away from the "wall" he should rebuild. Now as we saw with Fay stalling systems are bad news: lots of rain and the models have trouble coming to grips with systems that aren't moving along, the timing can be really thrown off making the future track very much in doubt. I still believe Gus has no choice but to move W, maybe even a little WSW like the UKMET shows, but he has to un-stick himself from the wall first.
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MikeC
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(Admin)
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Wed Aug 27 2008 09:01 AM
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Re: gustav looking strange on loops
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Quote:
Seems Gus is giving the NHC fits.Here we are at almost 9am.and he is still heading NW.Gus did not do what the NHC thought it would do,proving once again that these storms have a mind of their own.Given that it is STILL heading NW,all bets are off.
It's not all that off really, probably the biggest thing will be how slowly or quickly the storm starts moving again. If it starts moving quickly the westward scenario is more likely, if it continues to be slow, more uncertainty and probably further east. The entire gulf needs to watch it right now, I'm not sold on the models at all right now.
Like Fay, wait until Saturday to get a better picture and avoid getting hyped up.
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ftlaudbob
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(Storm Chaser)
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Wed Aug 27 2008 09:09 AM
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Re: gustav looking strange on loops
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Quote:
Quote:
Seems Gus is giving the NHC fits.Here we are at almost 9am.and he is still heading NW.Gus did not do what the NHC thought it would do,proving once again that these storms have a mind of their own.Given that it is STILL heading NW,all bets are off.
It's not all that off really, probably the biggest thing will be how slowly or quickly the storm starts moving again. If it starts moving quickly the westward scenario is more likely, if it continues to be slow, more uncertainty and probably further east. The entire gulf needs to watch it right now, I'm not sold on the models at all right now.
Like Fay, wait until Saturday to get a better picture and avoid getting hyped up.
According to the NHC Gus was suppose to be south of Cuba by now.I am not completely sold on this being a GOM storm,although that is still the most likely scenario.Until and if it moves more west,all of Florida needs to keep an eye on him.This thing is STILL east of SE Florida.
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MikeC
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(Admin)
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Wed Aug 27 2008 09:17 AM
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Re: gustav looking strange on loops
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Quote:
According to the NHC Gus was suppose to be south of Cuba by now.I am not completely sold on this being a GOM storm,although that is still the most likely scenario.Until and if it moves more west,all of Florida needs to keep an eye on him.This thing is STILL east of SE Florida.
It's a gulf storm, just where in the Gulf, too much keeping it to the south, it'll trudge westward maybe, but I don't see how it could affect South Florida with the current setup, or even get north of Cuba.
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ftlaudbob
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(Storm Chaser)
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Wed Aug 27 2008 09:33 AM
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Re: gustav looking strange on loops
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Quote:
Quote:
According to the NHC Gus was suppose to be south of Cuba by now.I am not completely sold on this being a GOM storm,although that is still the most likely scenario.Until and if it moves more west,all of Florida needs to keep an eye on him.This thing is STILL east of SE Florida.
It's a gulf storm, just where in the Gulf, too much keeping it to the south, it'll trudge westward maybe, but I don't see how it could affect South Florida with the current setup, or even get north of Cuba.
It is most likely a GOM storm,but I am not going to bet the farm on that yet.Simple for the fact that it has not turned west yet and is still well to the se of Florida.Look at the NHC's track yesterday,it should not be where it is now,and it should not still be heading NW.That ridge is not going to hold indefinitely.
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ftlaudbob
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(Storm Chaser)
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Wed Aug 27 2008 09:43 AM
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Re: gustav looking strange on loops
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2 of the models now bring it over the Florida keys:
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Re: gustav looking strange on loops
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in agreement with bob, i agree on easternmost track becoming more possible. i have goes up 24-7 im watching this thing, it is getting torn up right now and is looking very unorganized, but, as of 4:15 am, to 8:45 am, there is still a preety clear NW movement. keep in mind also, if this thing continues to slow up, and shear apart, it will give it more time to change its mind on direction. I think friday into saturday will be the deciding vote.
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craigm
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(Storm Tracker)
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Wed Aug 27 2008 10:18 AM
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Re: gustav looking strange on loops
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The center was exposed earlier this morning and is now filling in. Clearly looks to me like Gustav has started his westward trek although forward speed will certainly add a variable on how the enviornment will evolve over time in front of him. There seems to be enough uncertainty with the models and NWS analysis that I would say anywhere from the lower keys to along the entire gulf coast needs to watch this. Somewhat less of a threat to SE Florida due to the consensus that it will make it to the SE GOM by day 4 or 5 coupled with the fact that the 3 day cone usually verifies. After that any kind of solution that would turn it hard to the right is doubtful because I don't think the models would miss a long wave pattern that would cause such a shift, subtle changes yes but not a deep trough.
Link to start of westward movement:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rgb.html
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scottsvb
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(Weather Master)
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Wed Aug 27 2008 10:18 AM
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Re: gustav looking strange on loops
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Fay is just wobbling over the last 18hrs. Its movement NW is really just a jog. There is no strong cold front to push Gustav N, he will go W around the ridge and then NW towards the GOM. I'm not sold on the FL thing, except the Keys getting rainbands and probably TS watches or warnings. We will know today with the 12z model runs and especially later tonight with the 0z runs and what movement during the day took place.
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doug
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(Weather Analyst)
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Wed Aug 27 2008 10:19 AM
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Re: gustav looking strange on loops
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I am interested in that trough which is now pushing into NW Colorado/ Nebraska. It looks pretty vigorous, but it may not penetrate to a low enough latitude. There still seems to be weak high pressure over eastern Texas extending eastward over coastal LA.
If that persists or strengthens that should favor a westward track. It looks like all that will set up tomorrow more clearly. So that puts me in agreement with those who say Gus will have to show his hand today and tomorrow at least before the GOM dynamic is clear enough to make a reasonably accurate assessment. I have no reason to know if the high now influencing the projected track will or won't hold. It looks as if it may have shifted SW since yesterday a bit, which may also push Gus further south and west than first thought. Gus is moving mostly west very slowly. The influence of the peninsula is hindering re-structuring, but signs of the process beginning are there, with convection south and west toward Jamaica developing. I think today will be a long day in the life of Gus, with very little new happenning.
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metwannabe
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(Weather Hobbyist)
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Wed Aug 27 2008 10:45 AM
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Re: gustav looking strange on loops
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Hard to locate the center, and although Cuban radar not as high resolution as what we are usded to, looking at right now it does look as if the center is still either very close to N coast of Haiti or even maybe drifting back over land.
Do not under estimate the disrupting power of the mountainous terrain of the "rock". I agree with the kinda wait and see mode right now, not too early to be prepared but too early too panic, it is still only a TS now and the more it gets torn apart the more this will affect not only future intensitiy but future track. Once he clears land and starts to become better defined then we may be able to put some confidence in model trends.
(media wasting no time in hyping this up, already effecting oil prices)
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madmumbler
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(Storm Tracker)
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Wed Aug 27 2008 11:05 AM
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Re: gustav looking strange on loops
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I don't like seeing the 11am NHC forecast swing a little back to the east, but it's too soon to tell if this is a temporary trend or not. I nearly got whiplash from Fay's track forecasts. But if I was living in NOLO, I do believe there'd be some gut-tightening going on. This is going to be one of those storms they're going to be bouncing back and forth in terms of long-term for a day or so, at least.
As always, it just goes to show that when you do have a storm like this, NOW is the time to prepare, not waiting until they do know better where it's going to go. There's a good four to six days at least before a severe impact (hopefully) and it bears paying close attention to.
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MikeC
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(Admin)
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Wed Aug 27 2008 11:17 AM
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Re: gustav looking strange on loops
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The largest threat area remains Northwest Texas through the states to the East into the Florida Panhandle.
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Re: gustav looking strange on loops
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yeah mike, i keep hearing about the pan handle becoming a threat now. i personally am going to wait for that 8pm advisory tonight, that will tell us all a lot of what we really want to know im sure of it.
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CDMOrlando
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(Weather Hobbyist)
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Wed Aug 27 2008 11:44 AM
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Re: gustav looking strange on loops
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MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
147 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2008
VALID AUG 27/0000 UTC THRU AUG 30/1200 UTC
MODEL INITIALIZATION...
...SEE NOUS42 KWNO ADMNFD FOR STATUS OF UPPER AIR INGEST...
...TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV...
THE 00Z NAM SHOWS THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF GUSTAV APPROXIMATELY 16 MB HIGHER AND ITS POSITION APPROXIMATELY 55 NM NORTHEAST OF OBSERVED AT 00Z. THE 00Z GFS SHOWS THE CENTRAL PRESSURE APPROXIMATELY 14 MB HIGHER THAN OBSERVED AT 00Z.
SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD
1115 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2008
12Z NCEP MODEL PRODUCTION IS ON TIME...7 DROPSONDES AND 5 FLIGHT LEVEL REPORTS WERE AVAILABLE FOR 12Z GFS INGEST IN SUPPORT OF TS GUSTAV...
I would like to see the models initialize the data properly before making any plans or lack of plans.
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pcola
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(Storm Tracker)
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Wed Aug 27 2008 11:44 AM
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Re: gustav looking strange on loops
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anything from no east is a threat to the panhandle, ...worst case for us here in pensacola is a storm like Ivan that comes due north to the al state line, like Ivan did....even Dennis hit here with the eye and the worst surge damage was in the big bend....best scenario for us is west of the mouth of the mississippi...
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scottsvb
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(Weather Master)
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Wed Aug 27 2008 12:13 PM
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Re: gustav looking strange on loops
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Gustav is still on my early forecasted path (page 2).. This is a straight forward movement to the west then wnw towards the western GOM. From Northern Mx-Central Lousiana needs to keep a eye on this system. I dont see this getting any stronger than a Cat 3, probably a high end 2 near landfall as it will encounter some shear.
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Re: gustav looking strange on loops
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I agree that Florida is NOT out of danger just because the 5-day shows it well west of here. It bothers me when people at work look at that 5-day, see it west of us and go, "Nothing to worry about, it won't hit us". Amazes me how short memories are of how storms wobble and swerve. I am trying to teach them to look at how wide the cone is when it reaches our latitude. The wider it is, the less certain the track and the more potential danger to our area. That 5-day cone is about 800 miles wide at Tampa's latitude and I will NOT let my guard down, no matter what the local TV mets say. Just seeing it shift so we are on the very edge of the cone shows this. It DOES seem pretty clear that it is headed into the Gulf SOMEWHERE. The more it slows, the less certain things will get. If you live along the GOM, your motto ought to be, "keep your eyes on the cone".
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Re: gustav looking strange on loops
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originally predicted was a WEST then a WNW movement. currently it shifted NW to WNW. between the 8 am and 11am advisory today. it has made no clear forward movement to the west scott. it has shifted just a LITTLE bit to the west. giving us the WNW movement. and right now for me its incredibly difficult to see movement. tracking the coc has been rough for me even with 2 days of time loops. its incredibly difficult to make those calls, hence why our weather guys are holding off till thurs or friday for their predictions. we just dont know.
9A 08/27 8:00 AM 18.8N 73.7W 60MPH 997mb Northwest near 5 MPH TS Gustav 08/27 7:49 AM Pasch/rhome
10 08/27 11:00 AM 18.8N 74.0W 60MPH 997mb West-northwest near 5 MPH TS Gustav 08/27 10:34 AM Pasch
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scottsvb
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(Weather Master)
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Wed Aug 27 2008 12:36 PM
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Re: gustav looking strange on loops
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Sorry , but its on its forecasted (not only by me) movement. Its moving slowly west or just north of due west. There is no strong cold front to push out the Bahama-Florida ridge. There never is this time of year (July-Aug) unless a cold front or a midlevel trough digs down into the central or eastern gulf (and there isnt) to cause any tropical storms near Cuba or in the GOM to move towards Florida (east of 85W). It's simple Meteorology001 classwork. The Panhandle-N.O. isnt out of the woods.
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Re: gustav looking strange on loops
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im going based upon the advisorys that are data logged by numerous weather stations around the united states. so if there was a movement to the west. it had to have happened between 8 am and 11am but it isnt happening now. and im preety sure the 2pm advisory will state the same. and you should really know, metorology 101 states "follow the advisorys from the NWS".
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scottsvb
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(Weather Master)
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Wed Aug 27 2008 12:50 PM
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Re: gustav looking strange on loops
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2pm adv might just still say WNW cause its moving @ 285dg-290dg right now, and it should continue to bend more towards a 270dg motion with wobble of 280dg over the next day or so, then a more WNW movement towards the western tip of Cuba.
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Re: gustav looking strange on loops
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"Gustav is still on my early forecasted path (page 2).. This is a straight forward movement to the west then wnw"
im just trying to clerify what you mean that is all. i dont want anybody to get confused around here. its just i trust the advisorys from the NWS as they are preety accurate. if it does make a straight forward west movement it wont be for some time, if any straight west movement at all.
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scottsvb
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(Weather Master)
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Wed Aug 27 2008 12:57 PM
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Re: gustav looking strange on loops
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The NWS is accurate, but they also coordinate with the NHC and TPC. The NWS ADJUSTS their forecasts with the info they give them. Follow the NHC for all movement and predictions over me or anyone else.
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Re: gustav looking strange on loops
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http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/stormspotlight.php?year=2008&storm=7 , at the bottom is the advisorys from the NHC. they say the same thing.
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javlin
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(Weather Master)
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Wed Aug 27 2008 01:21 PM
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Re: gustav looking strange on loops
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I think the NHC when doing movements do an average of the last 6hrs or 9hrs for movement.But,he did move .3w only between 8-11am,is that a trend?we will have to wait and see.
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Re: gustav looking strange on loops
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The front in the Midwest will eventually bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms from the Red River Valley through the Tennessee Valley on Saturday.
Sunday and Monday, the Gulf Coast could be dealing with current Tropical Storm Gustav. http://www.weather.com/newscenter/nationalforecast/index.html?from=secondarynav
In my case if this storm is still near cuba by saturday it will start to feel that front coming from the midwest. But it will also depend on how strong this front is. Its going to be a intresting one this week !
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pcola
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(Storm Tracker)
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Wed Aug 27 2008 01:46 PM
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Re: gustav looking strange on loops
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new models runs offer little change with both gfdl and gfs looking at the central gulf, with both bouncing back and forth.....i really feel until we see the sytem in the gulf or at least turning that way, anywhere in the gom is in play
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scottsvb
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(Weather Master)
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Wed Aug 27 2008 01:49 PM
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Re: gustav looking strange on loops
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West movement confirmed with the NHC @ 2pm and has been moving almost due west @ 270-275dg for the past 4-6hrs actually. I have it located around 18.9N and 74.4W so its about right on. A general W movement with some wobbles can be expect until later Thursday with a bend WNW by then.
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JMII
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(Weather Master)
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Wed Aug 27 2008 01:57 PM
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Re: gustav looking strange on loops
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Someone posted this link before but I found it very helpful is visualizing what Gus is up against (aka the wall I've referred to):
http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/nws1.gif
The chart is kind of hard to read because its rotated but you can clearly see the ridge running thru Cuba and into the GOM. This high pressure bubble is currently protecting FL - Gus can't go thru it, he must go around. Right now he is kind of stuck and got ripped apart so the motion is very hard to judge. I assume this stalling motion has caused some of the models to show the track thru the Keys, but not sure. At this point it almost looks like the center is trying to reform off the western tip of Haiti, so it possible in the next update we could see a big jump indicating a western movement.
There are a couple of ways for Gus to reach S FL, but they all involved him moving much faster or much slower, neither of which are forecast. I personally think the NHC 5-day is too far west but the range of error at that time frame is so wide its anyones guess... thus I tend to just monitor the 3-day cone.
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ftlaudbob
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(Storm Chaser)
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Wed Aug 27 2008 01:58 PM
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Re: gustav looking strange on loops
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It's about time!We have had several model runs that bring it near the central GOM sometime Monday.Seems the NHC is fairly confident in it's forecast track.We will have to see what the shear will be when he gets into the GOM,that could be the only thing that COULD hold it back from becoming a major cane.Let's hope and pray the shear is high.
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scottsvb
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(Weather Master)
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Wed Aug 27 2008 02:11 PM
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Re: gustav looking strange on loops
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Bob the west movement was only about 6hrs late.,,,, it stalled for a few hours right when it went back over water very early this morning,, then it started to move just north of west. This movement by most models wasnt expected until this morning.
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WeatherNut
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(Weather Master)
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Wed Aug 27 2008 02:16 PM
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Re: gustav looking strange on loops
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Once the storm makes the turn into the gulf, I think it will be clearer as to eventual landfall. Its looking like a LA landfall to me or possibly west of there. Other than maybe extreme western FL panhandle, I think FL misses this one (right now...of course this could/will change)
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javlin
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(Weather Master)
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Wed Aug 27 2008 02:36 PM
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Re: gustav looking strange on loops
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Quote:
West movement confirmed with the NHC @ 2pm and has been moving almost due west @ 270-275dg for the past 4-6hrs actually. I have it located around 18.9N and 74.4W so its about right on. A general W movement with some wobbles can be expect until later Thursday with a bend WNW by then.
I guess the 6hr rule comes into play here sure does look disorganized at the moment though.A definite pattern of weak steering currents in the Carib for the last 2wks.I personally hate it for the most part.
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Re: gustav looking strange on loops
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Regarding that Surface graphic image sent earlier, I see the 1012 isobar line which I am assuming shows the general shape of the boundary of high pressure area that is mentioned as "blocking" Gustav (stated like a true non-Met!)
The question I have has to do with where that "12" isobar was yesterday. It appears to be retreating east at a fair clip when you compare today's position with yesterdays position (see the attached JPG from yesterday at 21UTC).
If it continues that retreat east at the same rate, it seems like it wouldn't take long to be mostly out of the Gulf; and if so, would that not start to move the forcast direction more northerly and eventually northeasterly?
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Re: gustav looking strange on loops
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RE: The graphic I mentioned in my post before, I think I maxed out the allowable size. Here is a smaller one.
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pcola
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(Storm Tracker)
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Wed Aug 27 2008 03:04 PM
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Re: gustav looking strange on loops
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i am really surprised that the NHC track and the gfdl ae in so much agreement..may just be coincidence, but the gfdl did a poor job with fay if i recall...but it continues to move slowly east...i wonder if this is a direct result to the slow movement with Gus, or the ridge just not being strong enough.....
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Re: gustav looking strange on loops
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it is still going at 5mph i think it will speed up within the next day, but fay slowed up too and does anyone remember when it slowed it the different track they had? wjere they moved it more east? where is this frontal boundry anyway? i cant see it on the sat pics.
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Patrick99
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(Registered User)
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Wed Aug 27 2008 04:05 PM
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Re: gustav looking strange on loops
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By my eye, west movement has clearly started.
Please read the site rules. No one line posts.
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pcola
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(Storm Tracker)
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Wed Aug 27 2008 04:43 PM
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Re: gustav looking strange on loops
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Gus has weakened but should fire back up..the gfs shows Gus slowing as it nears the Gulf Coast, that is not a good thing, especially if it is a cat 3 as forecast
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DonaldT
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(Registered User)
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Wed Aug 27 2008 05:15 PM
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Re: gustav looking strange on loops
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Quote:
Gus has weakened but should fire back up..the gfs shows Gus slowing as it nears the Gulf Coast, that is not a good thing, especially if it is a cat 3 as forecast
...and we all know what that means...it could get even stronger than that....but hopefully not.
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DonaldT
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(Registered User)
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Wed Aug 27 2008 05:19 PM
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Re: gustav looking strange on loops
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Quote:
It's about time!We have had several model runs that bring it near the central GOM sometime Monday.Seems the NHC is fairly confident in it's forecast track.We will have to see what the shear will be when he gets into the GOM,that could be the only thing that COULD hold it back from becoming a major cane.Let's hope and pray the shear is high.
Well, according to current forecasts, there's little that would prevent Gustav from re-strenghthening once the storm enters the Gulf...especially with the very warm water temperatures there.
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MichaelA
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(Weather Analyst)
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Wed Aug 27 2008 05:40 PM
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Re: gustav looking strange on loops
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The last couple of vis sat pics are showing a convective burst very near the center which indicates to me that re-intensification may be already underway. Gustav remains a rather small, compact system and, as he moves farther West away from land and over some very warm and deep water, I'd expect some pretty good ramp up in strength. Fay didn't churn up the waters there much with SSTs still 30 - 31 degrees Celsius. I also would not be surprised at a slightly south of west track for a time later tonight or early tomorrow.
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Hugh
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(Senior Storm Chaser)
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Wed Aug 27 2008 06:39 PM
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Re: gustav looking strange on loops
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The strongest convection... really the only strong convection that exists.... in Gustav is due south of Jamaica, FAR away from the LLC. Convection has at times tried to develop over the apparent LLC but it's been sheared off quickly.
All of the models in the world are useless in tracking a tropical cyclone if the cyclone ceases to exist, and while I expect Gustav to restrengthen over time, right now, it's barely alive in my judgement.
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pcola
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(Storm Tracker)
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Wed Aug 27 2008 06:54 PM
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Re: gustav looking strange on loops
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the coc is definately south of the nhc forcast point....almost looks over land on the very tip of Haiti....if it does not move more west ..models will shift
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B_from_NC
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(Verified CFHC User)
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Wed Aug 27 2008 06:59 PM
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Re: gustav looking strange on loops
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I completely agree with you Hugh... The "storm" is completely exposed. There is no convection whatsoever around the center and it is all displaced to the south and east. It will take a bit of time for it to ramp up again and given all of the shear that is seemingly pushing all the convection off center, I think the NHC will most definitely push out the timeline as to when this thing possibly becomes a hurricane again.
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Hugh
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(Senior Storm Chaser)
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Wed Aug 27 2008 07:02 PM
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Re: gustav looking strange on loops
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Models keep bouncing all over the place. Of course, given Gustav's slow motion, that's to be expected right now. IF it ever gets free of Haiti, the models might come into some sort of consistent agreement, but that may be Tuesday at this rate.
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Re: gustav looking strange on loops
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pcola, in which direction do you think it will shift? more nne? its moving 3mph as of the latest advisory, its chuggin along very slowly.
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Re: gustav looking strange on loops
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This is the Forecast Lounge, however it is not a chat room or a place for one line posts. Use the PM feature to ask a question of another user regarding their post. This has been said more than once in this Forum as well as the others so from here on in there will be some deleted/moved posts. Keep this in mind before you ask what happened to my post. Review the site rules regarding posting.
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WeatherNut
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(Weather Master)
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Wed Aug 27 2008 07:28 PM
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Re: gustav looking strange on loops
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It looks as though convection is starting to fire near the center. It also looks like the shear is starting to relax as I dont see these tops being blow off like the last several hours. It will need to move farther from Haiti before it can do very much
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Hugh
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(Senior Storm Chaser)
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Wed Aug 27 2008 07:38 PM
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Re: gustav looking strange on loops
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The shear might be relaxing a little, but I still do not think convection is building over the LLC just yet. It's trying to build, clearly, but still getting blown off, which indicates to me that there is still some degree of shear. It's also still creeping along at a snail's pace.
Edit: 8pm is out, weaker still (down to 45mph).. now moving due west at 7...
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Re: New Orleans again?!
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Well I have predictions as of the 5:00PM Advisory. The high is what's making it's projection pend for me. I have ether going out into the Gulf and making landfall slightly east of New Orleans or going over the northern tip of Cuba and making another north of Cedar Key. Again depends on the that's out there.
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pcola
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(Storm Tracker)
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Wed Aug 27 2008 07:54 PM
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Re: New Orleans again?!
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GFDL 18z run has not changed much..looking at ms/la border, but the gfs stalls the system in the northern gulf..2 more days before we have a better grip on this
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metwannabe
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(Weather Hobbyist)
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Wed Aug 27 2008 09:42 PM
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Re: New Orleans again?!
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I agree at least 48 hours before the models and NHC can get a better handle on Gus. I do not recall anywhere in the forecast in the last 48 hours calling for Gus to be a minimal TS now still hugging the sw coastline of Haiti.
Still some shear impeding re-intensification but I still think that the mountainous terrain of Haiti did a real number on Gus. The longer it takes for him to re-organize (assuming he does) will have huge implications with regard to intensity and track.
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scottsvb
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(Weather Master)
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Wed Aug 27 2008 10:34 PM
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Re: New Orleans again?!
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Gustav heading SW currently, NHC though might just say WSW. Gustav weaker going with the flow from the midlevel high over the florida straits and maybe alittle help from the upper low. Gustav will bring torrential rains to Jamaica and unless he passes directly over the island, he will strengthen to a hurricane again by Thursday sometime.
95L really needs to wait for that upper low to its west todo something. It may become a TD or a TS in the next 12-24hrs but it needs the upper low to move NW or SW and get out of the way to get a better flow aloft.
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danielw
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(Moderator)
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Wed Aug 27 2008 10:55 PM
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Re: New Orleans again?!
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WTNT22 KNHC 280242
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
0300 UTC THU AUG 28 2008
AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR HAITI NORTH
OF PORT AU PRINCE IS DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI WEST OF
THE BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND PORT AU PRINCE.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 26.0N 87.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 29.0N 89.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
There's that 89.5W again. 0.1degree E of Katrina's landfall point. That should be near Downtown Venice, Louisiana.
Mapped out that would be 18nm SSW of Venice,LA and 6nm NNW of the Southwest Pass of the MS River.
These are the 120 hour forecast points are errors exceed 250nm at this time~danielw
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Unregistered User
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(Unregistered)
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Wed Aug 27 2008 11:09 PM
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Re: New Orleans again?!
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The latest IR imagery shows a good deal of convection starting to build near where the NHC has the center located. By morning I would expect to see the strength on the upside instead of weakening. Also to note, most of the model tracks that have been recently updated, including the NHC model track, have shifted slightly to the west of where they previously were.
In the forecast discussion from the NHC they bring up the point that there is a greater expectation of some shear once Gus hits the GOM and there is also a greater chance that an upper level ridge will be entering the western gulf because of the delay in track and intensification that Gus has taken over the past day. Personally I think that the warm waters that Gus is entering will still allow it to reach Cat 3 strength even if only for a while before shear takes it back down to a Cat 2.
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gatorman
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(Verified CFHC User)
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Wed Aug 27 2008 11:50 PM
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Re: New Orleans again?!
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ok, sorry if this is a little bit of over kill for basicly the same question, but ive been verbally spanked for one liners.. anyways wouldnt sheer from the southwest push the hurricane(gustav) more to the east?? also as someone on here, much more knowledgeable than I, said that the path a hurricane follows is like is like moutains and valleys, moutains are like highs and valleys are low. the hurricane is going to follow the lows(valley) and try to wind around the highs, with this in mind, wouldnt the hurricane(gustav) be more proned to shift eastward with a dome of high pressure building in from the west?? alot of these post are very insightful and a great learning tool, i know it has helped me,, thanks all
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pcola
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(Storm Tracker)
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Thu Aug 28 2008 07:30 AM
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Re: New Orleans again?!
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for hurricanes to grow, they need convection to fie, which means very high cloud tops....shear will blow the tops off the clouds and prevent it from growing, but no effect the loe level center..........also, the high pressure north has clockwise winds, thus a movement around the high clockwise, until a break is found, usually between a high and a low, which has counterclockwise winds, thus the path of least resistance
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pcola
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(Storm Tracker)
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Thu Aug 28 2008 08:19 AM
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Re: New Orleans again?!
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OK....I quit......just when the nhc shifts its track west, some of the globals, including the gfdl shift to the east, with the gfdl no pointing at the mouth of mobile bay, and the gfs stalling the system in the northern gulf.....for me the solution is simple, i will leave the shutters up until the xmas lights go up....this is nerveracking
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Unregistered User
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(Unregistered)
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Thu Aug 28 2008 08:42 AM
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Re: New Orleans again?!
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To my untrained eye, Gus seems to be moving to the west. This appears to be following the GFDL model in both tracking and intensity for now. The GFDL hasn't been shifting too much...been pretty much just east of New Orleans for over a day and certainly has our attention. We're waiting until Saturday to make the call on implenting our evacuation from the Mississippi Gulf Coast because a lot can happen between now and then. We almost saw this thing completely dessipate less tha 24 hours ago so who knows what's in store....
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SeaMule
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(Weather Hobbyist)
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Thu Aug 28 2008 09:32 AM
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Where will Fay GO?
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I like the post a met wrote yesterday, where he indicated that it is actually IMPOSSIBLE to know where Fay is eventually going to go. They don't have the tools yet....
Interestingly, the GFDL rips through north Jamaica...then intensifies to a strong hurricane directly through Mobile Bay.......and yesterday it was over in Mississippi.
the models will change...and the ONLY thing to do is think about what you will do IF the storm heads your way. I would venture to say from Panama City Florida all the way to Texas is in the bullseye...and as it gets closer....it will get less. Typical errors are on average 200 miles this way or that, when the storm is that far out....
Hanna looks like an Andrew track to me...and possibly a major hurricane too.....
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Unregistered User
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(Unregistered)
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Thu Aug 28 2008 09:34 AM
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Re: New Orleans again?!
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Actually the most accurate track thus far for Gus has been the UKMET model. It is the only model that originally had Gus going south of Jamaica before sling shotting around back to the WNW. The GFDL model hasn't been updated since fairly early this morning, so I would wait to see it's 11am EDT update before I see where it's trying to take Gus.
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Unregistered User
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(Unregistered)
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Thu Aug 28 2008 09:43 AM
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Re: New Orleans again?!
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I'm watching the BAMM and BAMD models which are showing the winds above 10,000 and 24,000 feet respectively for some long term guidance. The GFDL is a good fluiddynamic model but seems slow to respond to other changes. The BAM models seem to trace a high pressure ridge around FL. This is nerveracking.
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Unregistered User
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(Unregistered)
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Thu Aug 28 2008 09:49 AM
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Re: New Orleans again?!
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Quote:
OK....I quit......just when the nhc shifts its track west, some of the globals, including the gfdl shift to the east, with the gfdl no pointing at the mouth of mobile bay, and the gfs stalling the system in the northern gulf.....for me the solution is simple, i will leave the shutters up until the xmas lights go up....this is nerveracking
I know we are supposed to not put too much faith into the 5 day cone or the models that far out, but this gets so nerve racking when the track wobbles away from you and then back in a constant loop of back and forth. On one note they are saying that the high over florida will move off to the east and keep 95L (Hanna) from spinning out to sea. Yet the models hold it in place enough to keep Gustav from recurving more North to the panhandle of Florida. What gives? Which is it?
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RevUp
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(Weather Guru)
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Thu Aug 28 2008 09:58 AM
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Re: New Orleans again?!
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The GFS model data I've been looking at the last few days has been quite consistent in showing "full" development of Gustav from this point forward, with a minimal cat 3 storm impacting the region from New Orleans to Panama City as early as Labor Day. To narrow it down any further this far out seems pointless. It bears repeating that the biggest difficulty and degrees of error come with intensity forecasts and structure of the storms as they impact coastlines. One things for sure, people cannot say they didn't have enough warning with this storm!
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JMII
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(Weather Master)
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Thu Aug 28 2008 10:08 AM
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Re: New Orleans again?!
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Good call by Hugh a few posts back.
Gus got really pounded by the High to the north, he bounced off the "wall" and went SOUTH just like UKMET said. I had feeling this might happen, but he didn't so much as jump but got sheared and completely reformed off Jamaica!
Looking at the water vapor loop I'd say the UKMET still has the right solution, Gus still has to steer WSW over Jamaica. If that motion continues this thing could hit Mexico! I still don't see how Gus could reach the northern Gulf coast given the flow over the GOM, but the models (and NHC) keep holding onto that (scary) solution.
Now back home in S FL we might have to worry about TD#8 (Hanna?)
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Unregistered User
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(Unregistered)
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Thu Aug 28 2008 10:12 AM
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Re: New Orleans again?!
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Quote:
Quote:
OK....I quit......just when the nhc shifts its track west, some of the globals, including the gfdl shift to the east, with the gfdl no pointing at the mouth of mobile bay, and the gfs stalling the system in the northern gulf.....for me the solution is simple, i will leave the shutters up until the xmas lights go up....this is nerveracking
I know we are supposed to not put too much faith into the 5 day cone or the models that far out, but this gets so nerve racking when the track wobbles away from you and then back in a constant loop of back and forth. On one note they are saying that the high over florida will move off to the east and keep 95L (Hanna) from spinning out to sea. Yet the models hold it in place enough to keep Gustav from recurving more North to the panhandle of Florida. What gives? Which is it?
The key ot this quandry is the timing of it all. 95L (hanna) is currently 8-10 days from impacting florida or the bahamas if it follows the current models, whereas Gus is only 5-6 days away from making landfall on the gulf coast. This gives Gus time to follow the ridge along the west side of the high pressure center and make landfall before the high moves at all, and then 3-4 days for the high to start moving east and impact 95L's path.
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scottsvb
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(Weather Master)
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Thu Aug 28 2008 10:27 AM
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Re: New Orleans again?!
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I dont know about 8-10, maybe 5-7days. Gustav is really getting better organized, like I said last night,should be a hurricane by this afternoon.
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Re: New Orleans again?!
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Looking at the recent satellite images, I would have to say that it looks like Gustav has formed well north of the forecasted points and is moving W, not SW. It seems to appear like it will be impacting the Northeast corner of Jamaica. This is well north or the forecasted track of moving to the south side of Jamaica.
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metwannabe
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(Weather Hobbyist)
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Thu Aug 28 2008 10:41 AM
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Re: New Orleans again?!
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I'd say Gustav is very close if not already a hurricane again. Vis sat seems to show an eye trying to form again and would appear to be decent intensification going on. If winds have caught up to the pressure falls, would not be surprised to see hurricane at 11:00 update.
(I tracked recon through tropicalatlantic.com in google earth, it has crashed, any other sites like that availalbe, pm me if you know thanks)
still tropical storm at 1100, will probably be there this afternoon
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Unregistered User
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(Unregistered)
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Thu Aug 28 2008 10:53 AM
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Re: New Orleans again?!
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11AM update is out. Still not a hurricane according to the winds, but the direction has indeed shifted to due west. Even though the winds are still at 70mph like the earlier update, the pressure has dropped from 988 to 983mb so it is definitely still strenthening. Also, new high level convection can be seen on the most recent visible satellite imagery just over the eastern Jamaica coast. So now the question is, will Gus stay over Jamaica long enough to weaken again? Or will it turn NW or speed up (as is forecasted) in time to prevent any weakening?
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javlin
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(Weather Master)
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Thu Aug 28 2008 12:43 PM
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Re: New Orleans again?!
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Gustav seems to elude the forcasters once again he looks like he is about to skirt the coast N and any further intensification for day will cease till much later.At least he is finally moving some
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pcola
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(Storm Tracker)
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Thu Aug 28 2008 12:48 PM
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Re: New Orleans again?!
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models still all over the place..ukmet has come slightly toward the ease, more near nhc track....this storm is giving everyone fits, but i must say the photo of hanna, gus, and the flare up in the bay of campeche is intersting.....and gas went up 12 cents this morning here
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pcola
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(Storm Tracker)
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Thu Aug 28 2008 01:43 PM
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Re: New Orleans again?!
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12z gfs model in..takes Gus to central gulf below LA, stalls it, then moves it southwest to near Brownsvile Texas....pftttttttttttt.
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Re: New Orleans again?!
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Quote:
12z gfs model in..takes Gus to central gulf below LA, stalls it, then moves it southwest to near Brownsvile Texas....pftttttttttttt.
But why does it not intensify the storm at all on that model run? I basically shows a TS all the way through the gulf. With the amount of warm water, low sheer, etc... I just don't see how it could not strengthen as it moves over the gulf. For yours and my sake here in Pensacola, I always welcome model runs that shift west.
The CMC takes it and stalls it right along the east cost of Florida. WOW didn't see anything like that coming out of a model. 
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MichaelA
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(Weather Analyst)
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Thu Aug 28 2008 02:17 PM
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Re: New Orleans again?!
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I don't have a lot of faith in the GFS lately. That said, it looks like Gustav is going to run the length of Jamaica and won't intensify (maybe weaken) while there. Once he moves west of Jamaica, there is little to impede intensification. I still have my doubts of the 4 and 5 day positions and strength forecasts. I would think that we will be seeing a cat 3 storm in the Gulf come Sunday. Where it goes from there is still highly uncertain. There is still a persistent SW high level flow over the GOM, but I can make out a somewhat counter flow at the mid-levels below that on the WV loops. The patterns are very complex and anything beyond late Saturday/early Sunday is suspect. It's still very much a wait and see scenario.
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RevUp
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(Weather Guru)
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Thu Aug 28 2008 03:51 PM
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Re: New Orleans again?!
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Quote:
The patterns are very complex and anything beyond late Saturday/early Sunday is suspect. It's still very much a wait and see scenario.
Agree. The shift in the latest GFS is proof of that! It's a significant shift and shows how the atmosphere is changing in ways that we don't fully understand - at least not well enough to make a very accurate projection beyond 48 hrs. I think there are some significant changes coming in the next 24 hours with regards to model predictions and NHC track forecasts. (Those poor folks have got to be pulling their hair out.) Again, the GFS is not all that strong on intensity prediction - you have to look at the trends from run to run. Right now, the trends don't look very good if you're anywhere between Jamaica and the U.S. Gulf coast. Very interesting!
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JMII
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(Weather Master)
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Thu Aug 28 2008 04:12 PM
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Re: New Orleans again?!
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Outflow around Gus is looking really good, he should start gaining strength as forecast, the high to his north has backed up (or weaken) slightly which will allow the predicted WNW motion near the Caymans. Everything in front of him points to intensification: weak winds aloft, very warm waters & no land masses. He just has to wrap up and avoid any disruption from the mountains of Jamaica.
In the meantime, the low in front of Hanna seems to be shearing her apart, hard to tell whats going to happen out there. There is an "alley" of sorts around 25N that she might be able to squeeze thru... but it appears to be too narrow, maybe this is why the NHC keeps her at TS levels till Sunday.
Plus we've got that huge blowup in the southern GOM and several waves coming off Africa!
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pcola
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(Storm Tracker)
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Thu Aug 28 2008 06:02 PM
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Re: New Orleans again?!
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ok..question time...it seems to me Gustav is moving at a slower pace than expected...with the ridge expected to break down, would a slower movement mean a turn farther east, and thus a further west track? makes sense,, but then again, nothing makes sense with this storm
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Unregistered User
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(Unregistered)
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Thu Aug 28 2008 06:49 PM
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Re: New Orleans again?!
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maybe I'm just being dunce....but can you explain your question a little better? A turn east means a western track?
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RU12
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(Registered User)
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Thu Aug 28 2008 08:04 PM
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Re: New Orleans again?!
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Any thoughts on Gus turning more to the east if rapid intensification occurs? Seems to be what usually happens as storms get more powerful...they start tracking to the east of the forecasted track(s). With the models in realative agreement for 3 to 4 days, I'm beginning to think that the cone will start to narrow tomorrow morning. My gut is that it will be between nawlins and p'cola. The GFDL's 1800 run is still holding steady to the east of nawlins but I wouldn't be surprised if it shifts a little further east by this time tomorrow. Just my $0.02.
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saltysenior
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(Verified CFHC User)
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Thu Aug 28 2008 09:38 PM
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Re: gustav looking strange on loops
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i'm new but,,,, looking at the 7;30 edt 8/28 hyperactive tropics display, it looks like central fl. is getting alot of something??... from coast to coast ++ ...when i go to melbourne radar , it shows just some local heavy t/s in the ocala area...nothing like the hyper.site. .....is this ''sensationalism'' ?????
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Unregistered User
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(Unregistered)
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Thu Aug 28 2008 10:17 PM
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Re: gustav looking strange on loops
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It looks like Gus is still taking a mostly southern route along Jamaica, actually looks like part of the eye is still over water, so I don't think Jamaica will rip it up as much as some people think. We may have a hurricane by the 8 am update, and almost certainly will by the 11am update. The most recent spaghetti models only have about 3-5 models going into NOLA or a little east of there, with about 10-15 going west of NOLA.
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Unregistered User
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(Unregistered)
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Thu Aug 28 2008 10:21 PM
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Re: gustav looking strange on loops
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Quote:
i'm new but,,,, looking at the 7;30 edt 8/28 hyperactive tropics display, it looks like central fl. is getting alot of something??... from coast to coast ++ ...when i go to melbourne radar , it shows just some local heavy t/s in the ocala area...nothing like the hyper.site. .....is this ''sensationalism'' ?????
The Hyperactive map that is shown is the Infrared picture, so it picks up on the temperature of the clouds and things, but the bright colors don't necessarily mean heavy rain like a normal radar would.
Nasa IR Radar
You can see from the legend on that page the meanings of the different colors.
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Re: gustav looking strange on loops
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If the forecast for Gustav would play out as forecast, the angular approach to the coast may reduce storm surge somewhat, very important for the Louisiana coast. This is why Andrew, a category three hurricane when it hit Louisiana, only produced a eight-foot storm surge; however, Vermilion Bay (on the south Louisiana coast) would act as a funnel for areas very near where the eye made landfall (as of now Intracoastal City), again assuming the forecast plays out (which is why I am posting in the lounge).
On a different note, it looks like the GFDL is forecasting a Katrina-repeat (mouth of Mississippi River then Mississippi Sound), the HWRF is forecast a Rita-repeat (southwest Louisiana), and the GFS is forecasting a Lili repeat (Vermilion Bay)! I would say we could probably narrow it down to upper Texas, Louisiana, or Mississippi at this point.
I am watching this one very closely as Lafayette, Louisiana is my hometown (in Baton Rouge for now).
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Re: gustav looking strange on loops
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Hi saltysenior! I live in Lakeland..we were only supposed to get a 20% chance of rain today...so to say the least, I was shocked by the intensity of the storms we got tonight. My pool overflowed, some people lost power..and although the rain stopped after after a good 1-2" drenching, the lightning kept on until almost 9pm. No ''sensationalism'' ..believe me.
Needless to say, weather is DEFINITELY not an absolute! 
Just goes to show you...
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Unregistered User
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(Unregistered)
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Fri Aug 29 2008 01:23 AM
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Re: gustav looking strange on loops
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THE SHIPS MODEL CALLS FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 99
KT...THE LGEM MODEL 94 KT...THE GFDL 111 KT...AND THE HWRF 137 KT.
THE LATTER IS DEFINITELY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS INCREASED OVER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN BEST AGREEMENT
WITH THE GFDL. HOWEVER...IT WOULD BE NO SURPRISE IF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION OCCURRED AND GUSTAV BECAME A CATEGORY 4 OR 5
HURRICANE BY 72 HR.
Just a clip from the discussion of the NHC from that 11pm EDT update.
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RU12
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(Registered User)
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Fri Aug 29 2008 07:01 AM
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Re: gustav looking strange on loops
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Noticed that the BAMs have shifted back to the east .Looks like the the UKMET was furtherest west and they've already got a 0600 UKMET run. The new run only goes out 48 hours unlike the 0000 run. Any where to get the longer version of the UKMET? Looks like the GFDL has shifted a little further east as well. Still in a "wait and see" mode but not liking what I see.
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metwannabe
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(Weather Hobbyist)
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Fri Aug 29 2008 07:13 AM
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Re: gustav looking strange on loops
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One of our local station's mets along with NC State have developed their own weather forecast model, primarily for weather features other than TC. However, it has done remarkably well with TC paths in the past few years. I only mention this because, and again this is not official and not to worry anyone, but this morning their model has Gustav turning nnw to n and coming inland in panhandle of Fl. One thing I have noticed with this model is although it may not always be exact in its projections it does usually hint at the trend and I am thinking that the trend may be now for Gustav to turn more NNW. Still to early and this would be a major shift in track but could be something to watch.
again this is just one scenario, always follow NHC forecast.
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pcola
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(Storm Tracker)
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Fri Aug 29 2008 07:47 AM
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Re: gustav looking strange on loops
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well the 06z gfs sure is a peach...it does have Gustav hitting somewhere over the central gulf coast and stalling inland, but has Hanna moving through the florida straits toward, you guessed it, the Gulf.......models are in less agreement this am than they have been for the last day, but the possibility of a system stalling in the northern Gulf and meandering until something picks it up seems more likely.....similar to Elena, which all over hte northern Gulf
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jf
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(Verified CFHC User)
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Fri Aug 29 2008 09:16 AM
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Re: gustav looking strange on loops
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It seems as though the most recent few radar clips are showing GUSTAV moving in a more NW motion. If that persists all the models will shift to the east. Does anyone see similar findings from your own observations observations.
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Unregistered User
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(Unregistered)
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Fri Aug 29 2008 09:47 AM
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Re: gustav looking strange on loops
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Yes it is moving at approx. 285 degrees at 7 knots according to the latest forecast discussion...however, even though a temporarily more NNW direction is forecast as Gus crosses Cuba...the high pressure center moving down from the Ohio Valley in the US is supposed to take Gus in a Westerly direction in the last day or two before landfall putting it in west LA/East TX. This is still very dependent on timing of everything.
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Geoff
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(Weather Hobbyist)
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Fri Aug 29 2008 10:04 AM
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Re: gustav looking strange on loops
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That NW jog in the movement is easier to see on the last three hours of the MIMIC imagery:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/marti/2008_07L/webManager/displayGifsBy12hr_05.html
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Todd
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(Weather Watcher)
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Fri Aug 29 2008 10:33 AM
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Re: gustav looking strange on loops
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Metwannabe... Interesting note. Could you share a link or contact to these models from NC State.
We could all use a new / good set of models to compare.
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cmiller73
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(Registered User)
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Fri Aug 29 2008 11:32 AM
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Re: gustav looking strange on loops
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I don't claim to be any expert but can someone enlighten me on what kinds of impact on Gus does that trough in the middle of the Gulf would have in the next day or two? That trough seems to be going further south and may block Gus for going west.
Am I seeing this correctly?
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Unregistered User
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(Unregistered)
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Fri Aug 29 2008 11:37 AM
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Re: gustav looking strange on loops
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Quote:
I don't claim to be any expert but can someone enlighten me on what kinds of impact on Gus does that trough in the middle of the Gulf would have in the next day or two? That trough seems to be going further sought and may block Gus for going west.
Am I seeing this correctly?
Well it can go one of two ways really. The trough is going to create a weakspot between the high pressure that's currently over Florida and the High pressure that is moving south from the US. Depending on the timing of how everything comes together, Gus can follow that weakspot slightly and turn north or possibly slightly NE, but if the High pressure from up in the middle of the US gets into place in time before Gus can latch onto the trough, it will most likely cause Gus to stall a little, and turn more west than the tracks are showing right now.
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MichaelA
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(Weather Analyst)
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Fri Aug 29 2008 11:39 AM
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Re: gustav looking strange on loops
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Nothing is out of the question once Gustav enters the GOM. Now that Gustav has grown nearly 3x in coverage, he will begin having more influence over the surrounding environment rather than responding to that environment as would be the case if he had remained small and compact. The current forecast track at the 4 and 5 day range is simply a split down the middle of the model guidance. Gustav could end up anywhere within the cone of error.
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RU12
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(Registered User)
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Fri Aug 29 2008 12:11 PM
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Re: gustav looking to the right of the latest runs
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From what I can tell, the COC appears to be headed to the right of the current forcast track. I'm using the water vapor loop and then turning the forcast points "on". Am I seeing things or is the forcast points not correct? If this is truly sliding to the right, the GFDL may be the more credible model. Like already mentioned by others, the later runs will be what tells the story when more accurate data has been obtained from recon.
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RevUp
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(Weather Guru)
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Fri Aug 29 2008 02:11 PM
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Re: gustav looking to the right of the latest runs
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At this point, there are going to be minor shifts to the right or left of the forecast track in the short term as Gustav strengthens. I've had many professors/mentors tell me that these hurricane centers aren't simply static features you move on a playing board - they're constantly interacting with their environment, strengthening, weakening, and "re-forming" in response to convection, steering currents, and topography.
There is great certainty on Gustav impacting W. Cuba, but exactly how it will impact the northern Gulf coast remains to be seen. If I were an Emergency Manager anywhere along the Gulf coast, I'd be prepared for lots of rain if indeed Gustav slows its forward motion just as it approaches landfall (Mon-Wed). Florida already knows what these "soakers" can do.
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Unregistered User
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(Unregistered)
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Fri Aug 29 2008 03:39 PM
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Re: gustav looking to the right of the latest runs
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As said stated in the previous post, now Gus is taking a more WNW track than he was prior to the 2pm EDT update and is back on the original projected path to go just west of the smaller of the Cayman Islands....
Oh, and he is a hurricane again now as well!
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cmiller73
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(Registered User)
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Fri Aug 29 2008 03:43 PM
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Re: gustav looking to the right of the latest runs
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Quote:
Oh, and he is a hurricane again now as well!
And it looks like a visible eye is forming in the visible sats.
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Unregistered User
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(Unregistered)
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Fri Aug 29 2008 03:45 PM
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Re: gustav looking to the right of the latest runs
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Yes the storm is starting to look quite impressive at this point, the visible eye forming as well as some very good convection is building on the E and NE side of the storm.
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jf
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(Verified CFHC User)
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Fri Aug 29 2008 04:45 PM
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Re: gustav looking to the right of the latest runs
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With Gustav building on the N and NE it appears as though Gustav wants to track a little more N of NW , slightly E of the track forecast. Gustav is growing very fast and soon will have a mind of his own and will not be as affected by minor steering events. The high to the north looks as though it will not drop down as far south as previously thought. After Gustav gets into the Gulf everyone needs to be aware of where its going. This is going to be a very bad Labor Day for some area of the Gulf
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WeatherNut
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(Weather Master)
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Fri Aug 29 2008 05:10 PM
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Re: gustav looking to the right of the latest runs
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5pm is out with confirmed movement to the NW. Side note on Jeff Masters blog he is urging NO residents to get out now. It does not seem like a bad idea to me. Better safe than sorry
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JMII
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(Weather Master)
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Fri Aug 29 2008 05:58 PM
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Re: gustav looking to the right of the latest runs
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Yep Gus is getting his act together. The most recent model runs have him pushing a bit more west. The UKMET has been doing a good job with Gus's and that shows the most SW landfall of all the models. I'm really worried with all the focus on the Big Easy (for obvious reasons) that those living to the W and E don't realize how wide the cone is - AL thru TX are still within the realm of possibility for landfall!
Looking at the various loops and other data there seems to be a weakness over TX and 'canes tend to take the path of least resistance. Before I thought the NHC was trending too far west, now it seems like the opposite is occurring due to how slowly Gus moved over the last two days. Gus missed his chance to ride the flow E into FL... and now all the upper level steering winds are swing around to the west as the ridge slides up and out. I've been using the CCIMS products for analysis as the data goes back 4 days.
As for Hanna I think she is drunk  tropical systems rarely move SOUTH unless its a loop, a stall or a relocation of the center... so I will not even comment on her future track at this point in time.
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gatorman
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(Verified CFHC User)
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Fri Aug 29 2008 09:28 PM
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Re: gustav looking to the right of the latest runs
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ok kinda new to this forum, but enjoyed it alot,, anyways does anyone find it funny that the track of gustav is so straight? its being pushed to the NW by a high over florida, that is supposed to be weaker than earlier thought, wouldnt the steering currents have a northerly jog toward the north of the GOM? is the NHC just throwing that out till it gets past cuba?? land interaction almost always throws a little curve one way or another?,, if in doubt look at the past track of gustav, he looks like a pin ball machine, ive been watching hurricanes for as long time and this year is odd to say the least?? anyways i'd enjoy anyones input, thanks
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Unregistered User
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(Unregistered)
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Fri Aug 29 2008 10:10 PM
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Re: gustav looking to the right of the latest runs
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I think there are two things the NHC are looking at with their NW track as opposed to a N track. There is another high pressure center coming down through the US towards the gulf coast. Since high pressure centers have a clockwise motion...this could catch Gus in it's steering current just like the one is right now that is positioned over Florida. Also, there is a trough area over TX that is also attractive to tropical cyclones, the question is, will the HPC move south fast enough to catch Gus in it's current before Gus makes landfall?
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Re: Gustav Lounge
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Was Googling and found a live video stream from Grand Cayman.
"A live view from the offices of Cayman Net News in Grand Cayman. If the image stalls or freezes and fails to restart automatically, please refresh the page by clicking the appropriate toolbar icon"
http://www.caymannetnews.com/flash/
Winds are whipping things pretty good in Grand Cayman but the Sister Islands are getting the worst of Gustav so far and have lost power the last I heard. Just the beginning of what will more than likely be a much more serious situation down the road .
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Terra
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(Storm Tracker)
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Fri Aug 29 2008 11:23 PM
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Re: Gustav Lounge
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I do find the direct northwestern forecast to be pretty strange. I'm not used to storms who travel a straight line path, especially when there are so many steering currents at work. My gut is that it will go west of the NHC forecast, because of the ridge, since NHC says they are going more with the eastern outliers of the model guidance. For that reason, I had planned to stay home and ride this one out. However, it kind of stung when my friends reminded me that three years ago, I was also resistant to evacuate, but decided at the last minute to make the drive (thank God). Couple that with the start of manditory evacuations in St. Bernard, Terrebonne, and LaForche parishes this evening, and a pretty reliable rumor that my area will also be asked to leave. Anyway, barring any great change at 4am, I will be headed to Shreveport with the cat and kid. It's better to be safe than sorry, and it's definitely worth a tank of gas to protect your family.
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adriane
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(Registered User)
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Sat Aug 30 2008 12:16 AM
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Re: Gustav Lounge
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I have been watching Gustav from the beginning. And living 24 miles North of Cocodrie, LA as of right now I'm not super stressing about this storm yet. I see in my opinion the track being too straight still. With as said before here, Gustav still has to pass Cuba and I would really think that this will cause the storm to "wobble" or possibly even have a break down to the right side of the storm from the land interaction. The GOM waters are super warm right now, but the shear in the Northern GOM is expected to be there as Gus approaches our coast. I'm still leaning more to a Morgan City/Lake Charles hit from everything that the models are implying right now. But still Big things can happen quick, so Good Luck to ALL.
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omg
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(Registered User)
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Sat Aug 30 2008 12:30 AM
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Re: Gustav Lounge
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I have enjoyed this web site for many years. This is my go to for the facts. I have lived in Florida since 1959. Retired from FPL. Went through many storms. Thank you for this great site to give the lay person an insite to the amazing natural force of hurricanes. My question is. Is Herburts Box a player in this case or is that a myth.
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danielw
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(Moderator)
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Sat Aug 30 2008 01:53 AM
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Re: Gustav Lounge
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I looks as if Gustav may pass throught the NE Corner of Hebert's Box # 2.
This box is normally used with Fall Hurricanes, October and November. So I personally don't think the rule will be applicable to Gustav. It is something to keep an eye on.
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mcgowanmc
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(Weather Hobbyist)
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Sat Aug 30 2008 08:25 AM
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Re: Gustav Lounge
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Shreveport will get alot of rain.
I still think it stalls North of Houma.
Someone here can enlighten me, but I've never seen a CAT 4 stalled 50 miles inland,
the pushed SW to the Coast.
Note with Model Track 06Z, Gustav hits the coast faster.
A faster, stronger storm tends to curl to the NE.
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JMII
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(Weather Master)
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Sat Aug 30 2008 10:32 AM
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Re: Gustav Lounge
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The model data for Gus shows a tight cluster that is right on the NHC forecast track (straight as an arrow!), there is almost no variation in the models until right before landfall. Then all the models show a turn to the west at the end of their runs, so the real question involves Gus's speed and timing, it very well could make that turn BEFORE landfall and wind up in the middle of TX! I'm just worried with the focus on LA that people elsewhere are not preparing for this storm. Keep in mind the front moving thru the central US could out run Gus and draw him north putting those on the east side of the cone more at risk. However I'm sticking with more the west solution for now.
Currently Gus is NE of his forecast position, is this a wobble or a trend? Judging the overall picture I'd say its a wobble, the storm is not symmetrical right now - most of weather is to the SW, so once that wraps around we should find Gus's eye back on track by the time it crosses Cuba.
The low in the front of Hanna is all but gone now, her outflow is looking better, but her center is displaced so she's got some work to do... but that's a topic for another thread.
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Unregistered User
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(Unregistered)
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Sat Aug 30 2008 10:52 AM
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Re: Gustav Lounge
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I am in Houston, and although the track is still to my East, I am definitely preparing the worst. I know that Gus is supposed to weaken some before landfall, but at the rate he is strengthening now, he could be cat 5 after he leaves Cuba and enters the Gulf. This would still put him at a strong cat 3 or cat 4 at landfall after some slight weakening.
Even though I am inland a little in Houston, if it really is a strong cat 3 or cat 4 I will be boarding up, and I plan on working on getting the wood and stuff together today. I hope others in Houston haven't been deceived by the track if it does turn this way. The mainstream media has done a good job though of expressing the uncertainty of the situation as Gus approaches shore, but they are also playing into the whole Katrina anniversary and focusing on NOLA instead of the locations that it is currently forecast to hit ie...Lake Charles and Lafayette and even Beaumont. It seems they have forgotten how much havoc and even weaker and smaller Rita played on Beamont in 2005 as well.
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Unregistered User
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(Unregistered)
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Sat Aug 30 2008 11:05 AM
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Re: Gustav Lounge
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The 11am EDT is out...a little stronger, and the track moved just slightly East. The forecast calls for a cat 4 by tomorrow morning after it crosses Cuba tonight. Monday morning at 7 am the forecast max wind speed is 120 KT, or 138 mph. This is supposed to be it's strongest point, so we'll see if Gus meets or exceeds that. All the forecasts are still calling for the left turn just after landfall, so we'll see if Gus holds up the 14mph speed he's got after he crosses Cuba. If he slows down earlier than thought, say within the next 12-18 hours instead of the forecast slow down in 24-36 hours, this could be trouble for Texas.
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EBinTX
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(Weather Watcher)
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Sat Aug 30 2008 11:56 AM
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Re: Gustav Lounge
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I'm new as a poster here, but have been following the comments on this site for a few years. It's simply great.
hogrunr, I'm south of you about 50 miles in Lake Jackson. We are watching VERY closely and may be leaving as early as tomorrow. I've had my eyes glued on Cuban radar (Punta del Estes) most of the morning. The northward movement that happened over the past six hours helps our case in TX. I believe the key will be the exact path over Cuba and how it emerges in to the GOM. If the current forecast track holds, my best estimate right now is that the 72 hour "cone" will be on the eastern edge of Galveston Bay at 08:00 EDT tomorrow. If it remains that way we will likely stay put.
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Unregistered User
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(Unregistered)
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Sat Aug 30 2008 01:03 PM
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Re: Gustav Lounge
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good call by JMII earlier, the latest sat picture, besides looking extremely impressive in the eye wall building, shows that the convection on the SW side is starting shift around to the S, then SE and back around to the E side of the storm and with this, the eye is taking a shift W even though the overall trend is still NW. So by the 2pm EDT update, Gus should be close to being back on the previously projected path and not slightly East as it was...now to wait and see what happens as he comes off of Cuba.
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ShanaTX
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(Storm Tracker)
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Sat Aug 30 2008 01:27 PM
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Re: Gustav Lounge
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New notice
Quote:
Statement as of 1:20 PM EDT on August 30, 2008
Data from an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft indicate that
Gustav has continued to strengthen and now has maximum winds
near 145 mph...230 km/hr with higher gusts. This makes Gustav an
extremely dangerous category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
hurricane scale. A special advisory will be issued at about 200 PM
EDT to modify the initial and forecast intensities. The special
public advisory will take the place of the intermediate public
advisory previously scheduled for that time.
$$
Forecaster Knabb
I thought Gustav wouldn't be a 4 till *after* Cuba
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Re: Gustav Lounge
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This is just a simple lesson on how we can still only make an educated guess at the massive power of the Hurricane phenomenon. These storms are unique forces of nature and are as unpredictable as they come.
In almost 30 years of watching and tracking I am still amazed at the awsome power of these heat engines.
All I can say is ...... WOW !!
I sure hope this thing loses some steam after it wrecks Cuba.... Or the U.S. will be in a very serious delimma !
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Unregistered User
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(Unregistered)
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Sat Aug 30 2008 02:12 PM
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Re: Gustav Lounge
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As far as Gus was from Cuba this morning when it's pressure dropped 32mb over night and went from barely cat 1 to almost cat 3, I thought the cat 4 after Cuba forecast was a little on the conservative side. Cuba is in for something horrible with this storm, especially the Isle of Youth that Gus is raking over right now. They have a confirmed wind speed reading from the Isle of 140mph.
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jf
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(Verified CFHC User)
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Sat Aug 30 2008 02:32 PM
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Re: Gustav Lounge
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With GUS within a hundred miles of the coast of Cuba the forces of wind (140MPH) against land will turn the storm more toward the north as it passes over Cuba. As previously noted GUS has a mind of its own. If after passing over Cuba we don't get a fast move back toward the NW I would expect the NHC to give great thought to shifting the track to the east and settting out warnings for the possible areas of their concern. The Fl Keys are already preparing from reports broadcast from local media.
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Unregistered User
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(Unregistered)
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Sat Aug 30 2008 02:46 PM
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Re: Gustav Lounge
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As much as Gus may have a mind of his own now, he still can't just plow into the High pressure center that is centered over Florida, as much as the models are in consensus right now, I would say that the path would still be west-central LA or East TX. HWRF, one of the more accurate models this season still shows Gus to stall as it reaches the coast and drift west into TX.
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jf
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(Verified CFHC User)
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Sat Aug 30 2008 02:54 PM
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Re: Gustav Lounge
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I suppose we'll find out in the upcoming hours as to how strong the High is. It appears as though it is retreating a little from its previous forecasted location and shifting East.
I wonder what the NHC looks for when they decide to alter forecasts. Is it a concensus of Models or due they rely only upon their own data and skilled opinions.
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Unregistered User
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(Unregistered)
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Sat Aug 30 2008 04:06 PM
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Re: Gustav Lounge
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They have the Forecast Discussions that they publish along with each public advisory and they detail what their reasonings were for whatever changes they did or didn't make. For a while with Gus they were going with the middle of the road out of the models since they were going both east and west, then they went with their own data some and stayed a little east of the consensus and now the only question out of the models that isn't in consensus is when the turn west will happen...I think the High pressure center that is moving south from the mid-US is forecast to sink faster on the Eastern Gulf side and thus kind of trapping Gus into the central to West gulf. Again, the only question with this is if the High will sink fast enough to turn Gus before he hits land. I think that's the only thing that could keep him from hitting central LA at this point.
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docrod
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(Weather Watcher)
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Sat Aug 30 2008 04:26 PM
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Re: Gustav Lounge
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Hi all - Gustav has enveloped the Keys finally a few hours ago after a few teases yesterday. Power is still up, winds have not been bad and best of all, no leaks in my roof that "Fay" found!! We are in a bit of a rain break right now.
Gustav seems (from the vis sat view) to continue just to the right of NHC guidance.
- greetings from Key Colony Beach - Rod
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RU12
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(Registered User)
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Sat Aug 30 2008 04:32 PM
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Re: Gustav Lounge
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The latest model runs on Skeetobite have the skinny line back on New Orleans except for the GFDL. However, the GFDL is 6 hours older than the other models. Based on the later model runs and what I'm seeing on the loops, I would expect the track to be shifted back to the east to New Orleans or even to the MS-LA line at 5pm. This storm is large enough that the skinny line isn't going to matter too terribly much when this thing comes ashore.
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gatorman
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(Verified CFHC User)
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Sat Aug 30 2008 04:51 PM
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Re: Gustav Lounge
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last night, there was a more of a NNW movement, the track didnt change? now as of 342 CDT it seems to have another NNW track again, maybe a wobble? but if the "wobble" continues for more than say an hour, when does it not become a wobble and become a shift? seems like all the tracking has a fettish for LA? im becoming less confident with all the models. on the IR i just dont see the high over the eastern GOM ? maybe its there, but its not affecting the feeder bands? im starting to think gustav could take a 90 degree turn to the east and NHC and all the other tracks would go into LA. not saying it is just a metaphore. anyone...... input??? 
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docrod
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(Weather Watcher)
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Sat Aug 30 2008 05:08 PM
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Re: Gustav Lounge
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Quote:
last night, there was a more of a NNW movement, the track didnt change? now as of 342 CDT it seems to have another NNW track again, maybe a wobble? but if the "wobble" continues for more than say an hour, when does it not become a wobble and become a shift? seems like all the tracking has a fettish for LA? im becoming less confident with all the models. on the IR i just dont see the high over the eastern GOM ? maybe its there, but its not affecting the feeder bands? im starting to think gustav could take a 90 degree turn to the east and NHC and all the other tracks would go into LA. not saying it is just a metaphore. anyone...... input???
While there has definitely been a bias in the track a little to the right, imho, a major turn is unlikely in a system moving this fast. The NHC really seems to do well once these systems get above 20 north and over 10knots forward speed. The ones that stall are the real nightmares. I think I know what you may be feeling. I tend to see a bulleye on my house when a system is to my south. Perhaps you feel a bulleye on your back as well. Again, imho, I think that is a healthy way to deal with these major hurricanes. - best wishes to all on the Gulf coast. - get prepared.
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cjzydeco
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(Weather Guru)
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Sat Aug 30 2008 06:48 PM
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Re: Gustav Lounge
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On a different weather board, I read the following comments about reduced intensity of gulf storms being steered by a trough at landfall. Could some of the well-respected mets here comment on this discussion?
Quote:
I have a feeling we aren't going to see significant weakening [of Gustav] like we do with most Gulf landfalls. My reasoning (and there's no real science behind it) is this....Typically we see these storms recurving and heading east right before or during landfall. The mechanism that causes this would be a trough picking it up and dragging it out. A trough usually associates shear, drier air, cooler air. Thus weakening the storm.
In this scenario the steering current are dictated from a ridge at landfall, not a trough. Just from logic I'd think the shear, drier air that is normally associated with the landfall will not be there. Thus I don't really feel significant weakening at landfall. The only saving grace might be its forward speed. If it does come to a crawl before landfall, it would weaken from land interaction. But it the stall doesn't occur until its 30-50 miles inland we could be looking at one of the most impressive landfalls we have seen in a long long time.
I would assume that this person was ignoring differences in SSTs or the luck of timing of ERCs, (both of which seem to have been culprits in reducing the strength of big storms in recent memory). But I wanted to ask for a more informed opinion.
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JMII
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(Weather Master)
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Sat Aug 30 2008 09:28 PM
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Re: Gustav Lounge
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Gus has been running just east of the NHC line, this might be a result of his impressive spin up or a weakness in the high to the north... or most likely a combination of both. Looking over the water vapor loop I see the front in the eastern US is sliding out of the way which would allow Gus to continue this NNW motion, but the next front coming across the central US doesn't seem very strong (or very deep) so he can curve back west easily. This would explain the NHC straight-as-an-arrow forecast... there is nothing major that would greatly influence Gustav's movement in the GOM so its steady on the course for the next few days.
I still feel the storm will make landfall closer to the LA/TX border late Monday/early Tues AM, as the only weakness in the atmosphere seems to be over TX right now. Unfortunately this turn to the west will only make the surge worst as more of Gustavs's winds push up against LA. This puts New Orleans on the "dirty" side of the storm which would be very bad for them, even worst then last time I fear However based on all the news reports it looks like everyone learned their lesson and are getting out of harms way.
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Unregistered User
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(Unregistered)
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Sat Aug 30 2008 11:42 PM
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Re: Gustav Lounge
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In the last 21 hours Hurricane Gustav has been going 3.4 degrees North compared to 3.1 degrees West (I took the last 7 reporting periods, which equals 21 hours). For example: 11:00 p.m. coordinates were: 23.1 North & 83.8 West and subtracting the 8 p.m. coordinates of 22.7 N and 83.4 W which equals to .4 change for the North and West direction--but I did this for 21 hours and came up with the slight more Northerly direction--3.4 degrees North compared to 3.1 degrees West, which would account for the North 'Jog'--I think.
The 1995 Storm, Opal, was my wake-up call to a storm heading to New Orleans and then changed directions before landfall in my area (Navarre/Destin/Niceville FL).
I always try to follow "Hughes" postings since he lives in my town.
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docrod
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(Weather Watcher)
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Sun Aug 31 2008 12:37 AM
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Re: Gustav Lounge
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Quote:
In the last 21 hours Hurricane Gustav has been going 3.4 degrees North compared to 3.1 degrees West (I took the last 7 reporting periods, which equals 21 hours). For example: 11:00 p.m. coordinates were: 23.1 North & 83.8 West and subtracting the 8 p.m. coordinates of 22.7 N and 83.4 W which equals to .4 change for the North and West direction--but I did this for 21 hours and came up with the slight more Northerly direction--3.4 degrees North compared to 3.1 degrees West, which would account for the North 'Jog'--I think.
The 1995 Storm, Opal, was my wake-up call to a storm heading to New Orleans and then changed directions before landfall in my area (Navarre/Destin/Niceville FL).
I always try to follow "Hughes" postings since he lives in my town.
Yes - I agree - Gustav is moving slightly north of NW and has been just to the right of guidance for some time now. Gustav did some major wobbles prior to it's Cuban landfall but overall the track is still holding. Forward speed is also slowly picking up as well.
So far here in the middle Keys, Gustav has been rather wet. I have a street flooded with fresh water (far better than salt water I assure you). Sombrero light is reporting winds approaching 50 knots sustained. Power is still on throughout the Keys as far as I know (I'm in contact with someone on Little Torch- Lower Keys).
I am in between rain bands right now and saw a few stars in the star recently amongst lightening flashes.
- take care - Rod
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MoodyChem
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(Registered User)
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Sun Aug 31 2008 01:37 AM
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Re: Gustav Lounge
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I've been following storms for years, but after the last few storms I wonder about posting these tracks for the general public. They only see the "line", but don't understand the error inherent. Especially 24-48 hours out, like we are now - Gustav could go anywhere from the Florabama Lounge to halfway down Texas - but on the news I see NOLA getting ready, AL to evacuate Fort Morgan in the morning, but not much else. I think people trust the HPC so much that they believe the current line is exactly where he will go. Should the public see this or should we broadcast cones only - big, wide cones ?
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EBinTX
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(Weather Watcher)
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Sun Aug 31 2008 09:39 AM
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Re: Gustav Lounge
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Plotting coordinates from the images this morning against the expected track coordinates, it appears that Gus is still tracking more northerly than than forecast. If this trend continues it would not be surprising to see the 11 am EDT update come with another nudge of the track to the east. It wouldn't take much to put it between Grand Isle and the MRGO -- which would be about as bad for NOLA as it could get.
The forecast track from its present position towards landfall is very similar to Betsy in 1965, which led to the Corps of Engineers Hurricane Protection Program.
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Re: Gustav Lounge
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Maybe a met can confirm this but it looks as though Gustav is undergoing his first and maybe last opportunity at intenstification since leaving Cuba, according to the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential map.
He looks to be going through the warmest waters since being in the Gulf and is looking a little more healthy on the most recent sat image.
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ftlaudbob
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(Storm Chaser)
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Sun Aug 31 2008 01:50 PM
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Re: Gustav Lounge
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It looks like it maybe doing so now.There is a flare up right at the center.Overnight will be critical.The path looks like a worse case scenario,as the center looks to be headed just to the west of NO.
2PM Update has winds down to 115mph,but more importantly pressure is down 2MB.
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RevUp
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(Weather Guru)
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Sun Aug 31 2008 02:49 PM
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Re: Gustav Lounge
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Shortwave IR and VIS sat shows Gustav continuing to maintain organization, although obviously lacking convection to the NE. I believe this will persist as Gustav moves toward LA, and high pressure holds over eastern US. As time goes on, chances of Gustav recovering to cat 4 strength seem to lessen, although next 12-18 hours will tell the tale. Apart from winds, heavy rainfall is the bigger long-term threat over much of LA and vicinity (see link). 5-day precip forecast
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JMII
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(Weather Master)
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Sun Aug 31 2008 03:23 PM
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Re: Gustav Lounge
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Gus has really picked up the pace, he is out running the stronger storms and leaving them behind (to the south), thus they are not wrapping around the core/eye. This quicker motion is keeping him on more northerly path as the high above him has weaken and moved off to the east. It now appears that this high is not filling in fast enough to slow him down until well after landfall. The NHC line looks to be right on target and his current forward speed points to midday Monday landfall as a Cat 3. I believe he is simply moving too fast to gain strength regardless of sea temps. I'm just glad to see the streets of New Orleans are mostly empty, since the city will be on the "dirty" side of the storm this is shaping up to be a real mess
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Hugh
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(Senior Storm Chaser)
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Sun Aug 31 2008 03:28 PM
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Re: Gustav Lounge
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I don't see many signs on the AVN or visible loops that Gustav is intensifying. In fact, it appears that the weakening trend is continuing at a slow pace, and dry air is filtering in along the NE side. The track does look accurate, although at times my eyes trick me into thinking it is moving east of the track.
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EBinTX
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(Weather Watcher)
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Sun Aug 31 2008 04:12 PM
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Re: Gustav Lounge
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The vis sat images also show Gus regaining organization, and the IR appears as though convection is becoming more uniform than it has been over the past twelve hours. It looks like a nice eye will reform over the next 3-6 hours. Might the better and more uniform convection be an indication of diminishing shear, and point to likely intensity increase over the next six+ hours?
The westerly component of the track sees to have caught up with the northerly, and I agree it looks like it will join and move right on the forecast track beginning at about 01/00 hrs UTC.
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Unregistered User
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(Unregistered)
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Sun Aug 31 2008 05:42 PM
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Re: Gustav Lounge
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The forecast discussion states that the models and the current track have been shifted to the West some, but still remain on the East side of the prediction envelope so more western shift could happen in the next 12-24 hours as needed. Severall more models are starting to shift that direction too.
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Unregistered User
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(Unregistered)
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Mon Sep 01 2008 09:17 AM
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Re: Gustav Lounge
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It looks like Beaumont was smart for evacuating...Gustav has moved west of the projected landfall, since it made it past the lowest point of coastline for LA, it is hugging the coast, but not coming on shore...looks like it's going to be near the LA/TX border now.
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JMII
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(Weather Master)
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Mon Sep 01 2008 05:27 PM
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Re: Gustav Lounge
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Got to give the NHC an "A" on the Gustav, they had the landfall & strength pinned down almost five days in advance. It went a touch west and lost alot of energy right before coming onshore. I'd say it was a Cat 2 a good 6 hours before the NHC called it, but I'm sure they didn't want anyone to take it lightly, so kept the Cat 3 status up.
Glad to see only minor over topping of the levees (so far) as the surge is already starting to pull back. The damage will be most to the barrier islands and the outer marshes where the population is fairly low anyway. Still watching the news for major damage/flooding reports, but so far it looks like the typical hurricane type stuff: power out, some roofs damaged, minor flooding, etc.
Now we've got Hanna, Ike and few other swirls out there to watch 
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