weathernet
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Aug 28 2008 07:11 AM
Hanna Lounge

As of this morning, T.D. 8 has officially formed. Am preparing a preliminary forecast with regards to future course and impact. Will wait for visible satellite to assess current appearance, however given "T"'s of 2.0 and 2.5, anticipate an improving upper air as dipicted by 6Z upper air charts to have NHC conclude "Hannah" to be named by mid-day ( if not earlier ).

European model once again has been the most consistant, and along with other basic dynamic models now coming into agreement with even marginal support by GFS, believe the U.S. southeastern seaboard will really have to pay attention to this one.


ftlaudbob
(Storm Chaser)
Thu Aug 28 2008 07:30 AM
Re: T.D. 8

All the models so far have it going NW,then W and then SW.Kinda strange.And they have it as a major cane in just a few days.Any input?This looks to be a real concern for east coast Florida.

craigm
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Aug 28 2008 08:15 AM
Re: T.D. 8

Wondering how much of a limiting effect the ULL in front of td-8 will have (shear) and which direction the ULL is forecast to move. Haven't had a chance to research yet.

Evan Johnson
(Weather Guru)
Thu Aug 28 2008 08:48 AM
Re: T.D. 8

seeing as i am almost east coast, i am following this. checking weather.com's report they state it wont be a threat to land but needs to be monitored. seeing as it really has no where else to go other than west i think this is a threat. that frontal boundry that pushes storms to the the hurricane graveyard that usually is hovering over florida isnt there. i think we should bang our heads together and research more into this.

Weather.com's quote

"Meanwhile, a low pressure located several hundred miles east-northeast of the Leeward Islands has become Tropical Depression Eight as of early this morning. Continued strengthening is forecast, with it likely becoming Tropical Storm Hanna today.

It is forecast to track northwest into the weekend, and become a hurricane by late this weekend. For now, it does not appear to be of any threat to land, but will need to be closely monitored beyond this weekend."


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Thu Aug 28 2008 08:54 AM
Re: T.D. 8

The weather.com report is accurate, any speculation beyond 5 days or so is just that, and the chances are low right now, but gaining. However, I'm not convinced things will maintain long enough for it to reach the coast, but I'm not convinced enough it won't either!

doug
(Weather Analyst)
Thu Aug 28 2008 09:24 AM
Re: T.D. 8 (Hanna)

The ULL ahead of this storm is pretty strong and is why the track is NW and then back west and even SW as depicted in the model composite. It will definitel be the feature influencing the track in the short term. It will also enhance ventilation possibly if the two features can maintain polite distances from each other. Otherwise it could be a shear machine that kills the system. So ar the distance is healthy and it is ventilating the west side of this deveoping storm.

craigm
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Aug 28 2008 11:35 AM
Re: T.D. 8 (Hanna)

Hanna is being tilted to the east by the ULL. You can see the surface circulation.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rgb.html

The ULL llooks to be sliding to the S or SW as it separates Hanna should be able to strenghten even more. Strong ridge over mid Atlantic states forecast to build in will help models verify. Only question mark is the gap in the ridge that the GFS is picking up on. This is reminding me of 04/05 when the Atlantic basin actually was ahead of the pacific in named systems which typically does not happen. Were not there yet but the next couple weeks could change things.


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Thu Aug 28 2008 12:01 PM
Re: T.D. 8 (Hanna)

Hi

I am travelling from UK on Tuesday September 2nd - driving from Sanford Airport to Chiefland for a couple of days then scheduled to drive down to St Petersburg 6-11th September - then up to Orlando until 16th September. I am absolutely terrified of making this journey given the current storm forecasts - any advice/reassurance? Obviously we would appreciate the benefit of advice before we travel folk !

thanks in anticipation

Tina


Evan Johnson
(Weather Guru)
Thu Aug 28 2008 12:19 PM
Re: T.D. 8 (Hanna)

it is too soon to tell. i certainly would wait a couple days to make travel plans reguarding florida. even though gustav is going into the gulf. things can change. same with tropical storm hannah. i would wait, and follow the reports here for a couple days before making travel plans.

Ed in Va
(Weather Master)
Thu Aug 28 2008 12:29 PM
Re: T.D. 8 (Hanna)

History is interesting. The good news is that all but two storms at the same location have recurved to sea, but one of the two exceptions is Andrew:

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200808_climo.html?MR=1


metwannabe
(Weather Hobbyist)
Thu Aug 28 2008 12:34 PM
Re: T.D. 8 (Hanna)

Center of Hanna is now completely exposed, ULL causing quite a bit of shear. Hanna has a lot to overcome. If she can survive the next 24-48 hrs she should find herself in much better enviroment and all models will have a better handle then or could get sheared apart!!

StormHound
(Weather Guru)
Thu Aug 28 2008 12:51 PM
Re: T.D. 8 (Hanna)

So is there any chance the ULL "takes over" and turns into a tropical system itself? It appears to me that it is starting to suck in the moisture from TD8.

scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Thu Aug 28 2008 01:51 PM
Re: T.D. 8 (Hanna)

That's a Negative on that stormhound, the upper low wont become a TS. The ULL will migrate W and SW and Hanna will move NW and get above it in better upper level flow and strengthen some. Hannah is going to have to deal with ALOT of shear in her future from the ULL now, to the trough moving by to her north later this weekend and then the moderate N shear from the ridging building in early next week. But the movement of Hannah should be SW so she will move partly in tandam with the shear. I do think she has a good chance to become a hurricane early next week.

MichaelA
(Weather Analyst)
Thu Aug 28 2008 02:37 PM
Re: T.D. 8 (Hanna)

I'm wondering if NHC pulled the trigger early on Hannah. Right now, it doesn't look like much with the LL circulation exposed. I'm thinking it could be downgraded to depression at 5PM unless there is a flair up of convection nearer the center.

Crusadier95
(Registered User)
Thu Aug 28 2008 04:32 PM
Re: Hanna Lounge

Hanna to me seems like it will make land fall at Cape Canaviral, where it exits is TBD.

Lee-Delray
(Weather Master)
Thu Aug 28 2008 05:12 PM
Re: Hanna Lounge

It looks like Hanna may pull a 2004 Jeanne and do some loops before it decides where to go. Its interesting that Gustav's northern outflow could have an effect on her.

craigm
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Aug 28 2008 06:05 PM
Re: Hanna Lounge

C95- That is impossible to determine in an evolving environment. Computer models are dealing with a fluid within a fluid. Watch the 3 day cone and beyond that watch for consensus. Right now we are starting to see what is called a squashed spider output with the future track of Hanna which means the models are losing a grip on what will happen near the end of the runs. You are better off paying attention to the immediate synoptics and beyond 3 days solutions will vary.

craigm
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Aug 28 2008 06:09 PM
Re: Hanna Lounge

Hanna is showing persistence in light of the shear from the ULL in front of her. Convection is really blowing up east of the center which looks very healthy. Once she clears that influence I'm thinking the official intensity is too conservative. We will see though won't we?

metwannabe
(Weather Hobbyist)
Thu Aug 28 2008 08:42 PM
Re: Hanna Lounge

Convection blowing up much closer to the LLC, actually may be directly over the center. Also on WV loop looks as if ULL is starting to migrate westward. As long as ULL continues to move, as projected, and convetion continues to fire (even though it may be more pulse in nature in short term) Hanna will most likely survive. Plenty of time to watch her.

Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Thu Aug 28 2008 09:13 PM
Re: Hanna Lounge

Quote:

Convection blowing up much closer to the LLC, actually may be directly over the center. Also on WV loop looks as if ULL is starting to migrate westward. As long as ULL continues to move, as projected, and convetion continues to fire (even though it may be more pulse in nature in short term) Hanna will most likely survive. Plenty of time to watch her.





agree here that the ULL is finally starting to move to the west... maybe just south of west.... this latest blow-up of convextion on Hanna is really impressive to me... while fighting the shear on the west side.. it threw up a nice CDO this evening (in about 2hrs)... which is looking like the coc is trying to get back underneath... after watching the CMC last few runs... its intersting to see this model deepening some of the systems so fast.. but its track record is in question on the paths of the systems. i'm starting to think we could have to major canes this weekend... Hanna just seems like she's going to be in a really nice environment after this ULL moves away in the next 24 hrs


scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Thu Aug 28 2008 10:56 PM
Re: Hanna Lounge

Gustav is a pretty easy forecast in the long range- Lake Charles LA- Galveston Tx but Hanna is a different story....too many varibles go into effect here with her. We wont have a good idea on Hanna until the trough passes her by... probably by Sundays 12z runs we can start locating a impact area or none at all for next week.

metwannabe
(Weather Hobbyist)
Thu Aug 28 2008 11:18 PM
Re: Hanna Lounge

Obviously anything pass 3-5 days is nothing short of guess work but it would seem that the high that might force Hanna to the sw late in the track were to continue to migrate eastward than H would eventually turn back w or wnw or nw around the back side of that high. Assuming the high maitained its strength.

Does the GFS hint at this?


saluki
(Weather Hobbyist)
Fri Aug 29 2008 01:10 AM
Re: Hanna Lounge

The Hanna scenario is looking a little too much like 2004's Hurricane Jeanne for my liking. I suspect this one will keep the entire Florida east coast on edge next week, but it's early in the game and much can (and probably will) change. Best thing about the NHC's track (which certainly will shift over the next few days) is that it really slows Hanna down in five days, still keeping it 500 or so miles due east of my location. Perhaps the slow motion, if it plays out, would provide enough time for something to come in and sweep Hanna out to sea (although this far out, it isn't apparent to my untrained eye if there's anything coming along in the middle or latter part of next week that would accomplish that).

Evan Johnson
(Weather Guru)
Fri Aug 29 2008 10:35 AM
Re: Hanna Lounge

i see the current models point to the extended SW movement of hanna. but what about the system moving gustav to the NW does the "what goes down, must come up" rule apply to this? this is extremely confusing to me.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Aug 29 2008 09:21 PM
Re: Hanna Lounge

Anyone see the similarities with Katrina with this hurricane? A little further east to start, but the same predicted motion...

http://www.weather.com/newscenter/hurricanecentral/2005/katrina.html?from=hp_news


JMII
(Weather Master)
Sat Aug 30 2008 10:54 AM
Re: Hanna Lounge

Hanna's outflow looks good this AM but with the center displaced it hard to tell what's going on. Even harder to figure out the future track given the range of models. As I said in the Gustav lounge storms rarely move south so its hard to believe the NHC solution at this time... but they are the experts.

After a stall or loop Hanna looks to head NNW and more towards the Treasure Coast of FL similar to Jeanne. Now Dr. Masters mentioned that Hurricane Besty had a similar swing to the south all way thru the FL Keys before moving on to LA! However the historical data suggests the northerly path is more common.


craigm
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Aug 30 2008 12:43 PM
Re: Hanna Lounge

Excuse the one line post. As far as Hanna's track you might as well throw a dart.

scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Sat Aug 30 2008 02:15 PM
Re: Hanna Lounge

Hanna is up in the air right now. Models shifted eastward except the Ukmet.Further west it gets in the short term might be what will get this to florida or not.

Evan Johnson
(Weather Guru)
Sat Aug 30 2008 05:17 PM
Re: Hanna Lounge

5pm advisory hints at a possible wnw then NW track putting florida back on the hot spot. something tells me this is because gustav is moving further away from hanna.

saluki
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Aug 30 2008 05:43 PM
Re: Hanna Lounge

Quote:

Excuse the one line post. As far as Hanna's track you might as well throw a dart.




It almost looks like the NHC did exactly that with its 5 p.m. track forecast, which doesn't seem to bear much resemblance to any of the models. I said a few days ago that Hanna would keep those of us on the east coast of Florida (and maybe points north based on a few of the models) guessing, and there's no reason to change that assessment. In the long term, how much impact will shear have, and will it relax (as indicated in the NHC discussion) toward the latter part of the week?


native
(Weather Guru)
Sat Aug 30 2008 05:53 PM
Re: Hanna Lounge

You know there's got to be all kinds of explatives being muttered over at NHC with Hanna.

They've basically just split the differences with the models right down the middle. And I can't blame them...what else are they supposed to do. The models are all over the place.

The 5pm Disco (which contain alot of the same thoughts as the 11am disco, both produced by Forecaster Brown) clearly states that they have very little confidence in the track. Not only are the model tracks all over the board but so are the future intensity estimates.

I'm just doing what any sane/smart Floridian should be doing with this one. I am fully prepared and I'm just staying informed and up to date.

Personally, I'm far more concerned for those on the Gulf Coast than I am for anyone down here. Just keeping it in perspective.


cjzydeco
(Weather Guru)
Sat Aug 30 2008 05:56 PM
Re: Hanna Lounge

The 12z ECMWF takes Hannah towards the SW to just north of Hispaniola by Tuesday. It then bounces her up the east coast of Florida on Thursday with an apparent landfall in the the Cape vicinity on Firday. She then runs up and into Georgia, which would appreciate a significant rain event.

The ECMWF then bring a new storm into south Florida by Tuesday, Sept 9!

ECMWF 12Z


insight
(Registered User)
Sat Aug 30 2008 09:16 PM
Re: T.D. 8 (Hanna)

Hi..I'm new here, but I have a quick question. In this loop, what is causing the "boiling" effect that comes off to the right?


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rgb.html


cjzydeco
(Weather Guru)
Sun Aug 31 2008 11:36 AM
Re: T.D. 8 (Hanna)

I'm no expert, but I think the "boiling" appearance usually indicates rising cloud tops and new storms fire up. It this case, they appear to be accentuated by the rising sun illuminating the cloud tops from a low angle.

Evan Johnson
(Weather Guru)
Sun Aug 31 2008 11:50 AM
Re: T.D. 8 (Hanna)

as of the 11am update, everyone is still very confused. there is still a fork in the models and none of them can come into agreement. the projected N then NE past shifted further west from the 8am to the 11am. we will have to wait for the 2pm and the 5pm to form some sort of consensus. this is one of the most unpredictable storms i have tracked in quite a while.

native
(Weather Guru)
Sun Aug 31 2008 12:32 PM
Re: T.D. 8 (Hanna)

I think we would have to consider ourselves extremely lucky if NHC were able to get a handle on her by 2 or 5 today.

I'm thinking it'll be more like late tomorrow night. I'm not putting too much stock into anything about her right now because, in my own very unmet opinion...I don't think the 11am update has her coordinates quite right. I think she's about .6 degrees further north and about .5 or .6 degrees further west. I'm also not completely convinced on the WNW movement either.

Who knows though...could just be that my eyes have had enough already with being up half the night looking at all the data I could get my hands on.

I just hope the UKMET doesn't pan out....especially if she's a little further west like my eyes see she is. We don't need another storm...tropical or otherwise to even sniff anywhere near the Gulf.


Evan Johnson
(Weather Guru)
Sun Aug 31 2008 01:12 PM
Re: T.D. 8 (Hanna)

also, in my opinion the fact gustav has sped up considerably (went from landfall tomorrow night to tomorrow early morning) might come into play for the forecast future for hanna, as the eastern most part of gustav has been helping shear the storm a bit. a lot of factors come into play just because gustav and hanna are a couple hundred miles apart.

RevUp
(Weather Guru)
Sun Aug 31 2008 02:22 PM
Re: Hanna Lounge

Problems inherent with defining a center of circulation in tropical systems are well-documented in the case of Hanna here. As several users have noted, the COC has seemingly been farther north than the official fixes. This all has a bearing on the short term forecast accuracy. I do agree, though, that Hanna will hang around the central/SE Bahamas until Thursday (waiting for Gustav to do it's thing first?). Look for Hanna to get stronger and more organized by then as well.

JMII
(Weather Master)
Sun Aug 31 2008 03:32 PM
Re: Hanna Lounge

Hanna is a real mess right now, I wonder if she'll survive at all as the shear from the outflow of Gus is limiting her ability to get spun up. Heck at this point she looks more like a Tropical Wave then a TS! The eastern tip of Cuba is in for a lot of rain but the Bahamas are nice and dry.

Brent K.
(Registered User)
Sun Aug 31 2008 05:49 PM
Re: Hanna Lounge

I wanna ask, How much weight does the UKMET have to the others? It seems like that one and the LBAR are the biggest outlier from the others.

I am in South Florida and with the tracks from the NHC it kinda worries me that the UKMET has it swinging that far west.

Why does all of the models show a loop and the NHC shows a straight WNW to NW turn. Is this a dart throwing from the NHC or are they on to something about the track?

Sorry I am a novice at forecasting and I find it fascinating on the different tracks from run to run.


Storm Cooper
(User)
Sun Aug 31 2008 06:10 PM
Attachment
Re: Hanna Lounge

Not really sure where you are getting your data from but there is no "loop" in the modeling. As for the "dart throwing" by the NHC... the forecast track is pretty stable the last few runs. Model data can be found on the Main Page (if you did not know) and here is the a few more and it really reflects the NHC track. These are the latest model runs. That may have been the issue.

Brent K.
(Registered User)
Sun Aug 31 2008 06:23 PM
Re: Hanna Lounge

Well i am looking at the skeetobite runs and most of them seems to make a loop down towards Cuba then goes to the nw. Is this the models way of showing and erratic movement? (here is what i am looking at) http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/picservice.asp?t=m&m=08&av=200883116

I look at a few other websites as well as this one. Just wondering is we here in So. Fla have anything to worry about


Storm Cooper
(User)
Sun Aug 31 2008 06:31 PM
Re: Hanna Lounge

Just a few doing that. You should look at the majority and you will see a fairly tight group. I do certainly hope you have an idea of what the models are and how to use them. Go with the NHC forecast track in the end and don't focus so much on the models.

JulieTampa
(Verified CFHC User)
Sun Aug 31 2008 07:07 PM
Re: Hanna Lounge

Brent, I see what you mean about the loops. It looks like many of them have loop, which the NHC is disregarding. I'm no expert, but as a several year lurker, I notice the LBAR is always an outlier. The GFDL seems to be more reliable, and the BAM ones kindof out there, but not as much as LBAR. Would everyone agree with that? I think that since the NHC knows the strengths and weaknesses of each model, they know which ones to account for given certain situations.

Storm Cooper
(User)
Sun Aug 31 2008 07:31 PM
Re: Hanna Lounge

You made a great point and this may help as I failed to bring this up before. Read the Forecast Discussions issued from the NHC. They often mention the models they use to factor into the forecast... and the best performers most of the time.

Here is a part of the 5PM Discussion....not too much model talk but you will get the idea...

THE EYE HAS MOVED NORTHWEST OF THE DEEP WARM WATER
OF THE LOOP CURRENT...AND THAT COMBINED WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF
CONTINUED SHEAR REDUCES THE CHANCES OF SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION.
THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS NO STRENGTHENING BEFORE LANDFALL...WHILE
THE GFDL AND HWRF FORECAST ABOUT 10 KT OF STRENGTHENING. GIVEN THE
FALLING PRESSURES AND THE COLD CONVECTION...


craigm
(Storm Tracker)
Sun Aug 31 2008 10:09 PM
Re: Hanna Lounge

Time to put the dart board away. The most reliable models IMO are the GFDL, UKMET, NOGAPS and HWRF the NHC forecast usually is influenced by these the most. Environment seems to be evolving enough to clear up the range of solutions we have seen in the past couple days. UKMET has been persistent in sending Hanna west while most other models started sending her towards the Carolinas. Waiting on the 18Z UKMET to see if there is any change in the way they are dealing with the data. Last run of NOGAPS has moved significantly west so for the time being the recurving senario is not holding. Studying surface maps I am not seeing any feature that will pick Hanna up --yet. You can see the bulge in the ridge that wants to stall/loop her.

http://www.weathermatrix.net/weather/incoming/tropics.png

Going to be a couple interesting days coming up especially with Hanna's sudden burst of intense convection tonight. Regarding Gustav-- we need to keep everyone in that area in our thoughts tonight as it looks like they are going to take a pretty good hit.


scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Sun Aug 31 2008 10:36 PM
Re: Concern

Actually Hanna is quite disorganized... her center is on the NW edge of the T.Storms. Hard to pinpoint exactly where unless we had recon in there now. If Hanna stays weak thru tonight and makes it more WSW past 75dg by tomorrow afternoon, Florida will have a very good chance of getting a hurricane by Thurs or Friday. If Hanna finds its way into the T-Storm complex and it gets stronger tonight into the morning, then she may go along with the GFDL-HRW models. Tonight into tomorrow could tell us Floridas fate,and which model had the best handle on this.

(Post moved to the appropriate Forum - no models currently bring a hurricane into Florida. They may eventually or they may not, but right now this is the better place to discuss any possibilities.)


saluki
(Weather Hobbyist)
Mon Sep 01 2008 01:21 AM
Re: Concern

The first few 00z models to come out seem to be narrowing the spread. GFS has shifted a bit west and shows Hanna hugging the Florida coast but staying maybe 100 miles offshore on its way to an eventual landfall in South Carolina. The UKMet has moved east and now shows a landfall near the Broward-Palm Beach county line and heading northwest over Lake O through Central Florida and then north. Still awaiting NOGAPS, GFDL and HWRF.

And repeating what many others have posted, my thoughts and prayers are with those who will be affected by Gustav on the Gulf Coast.


cieldumort
(Moderator)
Mon Sep 01 2008 07:29 AM
Attachment
Re: Concern

Hanna is looking remarkably healthy in Infrared channels early this morning.. and it does now appear that her LLC has probably nestled under some of the coldest tops. While some shear is still being imparted over the cyclone from Gustav's outflow, this should be easing little by little today and tomorrow.

Recon is slated to be out in Hanna by midday. Chances are that they will find she may have been a stronger cyclone overnight.. possibly still so this afternoon.

Image from 1045 UTC uploaded as an attachment.


Evan Johnson
(Weather Guru)
Mon Sep 01 2008 10:50 AM
Re: Concern

as i have GOES-E up i see that flare. it has become a fairly organized storm from almost being sheared apart. florida needs to keep a eye on things today and tomorrow, as all the forecast models keep moving this storm west. although some of the models come into agreement, dont let it fool you. as every update goes by and a west movement is still being upheld, this is a red flag for florida. when the forecast models tighten up like gustav did thats when you have a sure fire bet of a projected path. meanwhile lets bang our heads together and keep on top of these updates today.

craigm
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Sep 01 2008 11:06 AM
Re: Concern

Recon is getting close to the center of Hanna. This is about 10mins. old:

Time:
14:56:00Z
Coordinates:
23.6167N 73.6833W
Acft. Static Air Press:
843.2 mb (~ 24.90 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt:
1,518 meters (~ 4,980 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press:
1003.3 mb (~ 29.63 inHg)
D-value:
-
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s):
From 65° at 53 knots (From the ENE at ~ 60.9 mph)
Air Temp:
18.4°C (~ 65.1°F)
Dew Pt:
17.0°C (~ 62.6°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind:
55 knots (~ 63.2 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind:
38 knots (~ 43.7 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate:
4 mm/hr (~ 0.16 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data


Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Mon Sep 01 2008 01:15 PM
Re: Concern

recon is about to pass through the center from the NE... i'm seeing higher flight level winds, and SFMR is seeing some strong winds too

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_vis_float1_0.html

being so small i expect the system will move around a but... can see nw shear from Gustav dropping by....


Ed in Va
(Weather Master)
Mon Sep 01 2008 01:39 PM
Re: Concern

TWC says Hannah now a hurricane. I've got to believe this unexpected quick development is going to pull her northward sooner than predicted. The officiall forecast doesn't call for her to be a cane until Wed am.

ftlaudbob
(Storm Chaser)
Mon Sep 01 2008 01:42 PM
Re: Concern

00
WTNT43 KNHC 011732
TCDAT3
HURRICANE HANNA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
130 PM EDT MON SEP 01 2008

THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS TO UPDATE THE INTENSITY OF HANNA. DATA
FROM THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT HANNA IS
NOW A HURRICANE WITH 65 KT WINDS. THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
UPWARD AT ALL FORECAST TIMES. THE TRACK HAS ALSO BEEN SLIGHTLY
ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST FIX. THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY SUPERSEDES
THE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY.


hurricane_run
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Sep 01 2008 01:42 PM
Re: Concern

Yes the NHC posted a 130 Advisory on Hanna as a minimal Hurricane. This is going to be something to watch for the east coast.

Evan Johnson
(Weather Guru)
Mon Sep 01 2008 02:22 PM
Re: Concern

the 2pm has hanna as a minimal category 1 hurricane with sustained winds of 75mph. the wsw track is still occuring and the storm looks very organized on the infared sat pics. the forecasted future has not changed as far as the path of hanna, and the computer models are now more tight together. narrowing the opinion of a closer hit to the florida east coast. we will have to watch it closely but it is starting to look like we might get lucky.

scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Mon Sep 01 2008 02:29 PM
Re: Concern

Only the Ukmet has a florida hit with the GFS and Nogaps close to Jacksonville. The NHC said they will adjust the path @ 5pm. Probably a slight eastward start then following the 11am track after 48hrs. Nothing really has changed on future track reasoning except its strength. Hanna last night went into the deep convection, if she hadn't she would be further WNW closer to 74dg by now, but still she is where she is. Right now I have Hanna closer to 73W and probably 73.2W by 5pm but the NHC might be conservative and locate her @ 5pm near 72.8. Hanna is moving WSW about 5-6mph. She should sag more SW or SSW later this evening. The question then becomes does she meander or then drift W just north of Cuba on Tuesday. This along with the speed of the ridge building back in with the exiting axis trough to her north will determine how far west she gets from Weds-Sat.

ftlaudbob
(Storm Chaser)
Mon Sep 01 2008 02:30 PM
Re: Concern

Quote:

the 2pm has hanna as a minimal category 1 hurricane with sustained winds of 75mph. the wsw track is still occuring and the storm looks very organized on the infared sat pics. the forecasted future has not changed as far as the path of hanna, and the computer models are now more tight together. narrowing the opinion of a closer hit to the florida east coast. we will have to watch it closely but it is starting to look like we might get lucky.





All the models I have seen have not been updated,they are from 8am this morning.Hanna is still heading WSW,so don't be surprised if the models and the official forecast track move west later today or tonight.Need to really watch this one.

Then we need to watch TD9,that one is forecast to be Ike shortly,and is on a track towards Florida.


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Mon Sep 01 2008 05:05 PM
Re: Concern

If this gets anywhere near Savannah, I think this song will become infamous Hard Hearted Hannah, the Vamp of Savannah.

However, I think Hanna still is baffling, generally heading toward the south and west and doing a "loop" now, the NHC discussion continues to mention South Florida all the way to North Carolina needing to watch, this system is more unsure by far than even Ike.


Evan Johnson
(Weather Guru)
Mon Sep 01 2008 05:14 PM
Re: Concern

well the 5pm doesnt tell us a whole lot more other than the fact it will intensify to a cat 2. and its moving SSW. and all the other nonsense brewing in the atlantic is mind boggling. this is a amazingly active season so far.

JMII
(Weather Master)
Mon Sep 01 2008 05:39 PM
Re: Concern

I still can't a read on Hanna yet... heck I can't believe its even classified as a 'cane. Its still under a ton of shear and basically been blown all the way to Cuba. The further south it goes the more S FL is in the cone once it finally gets its act together. It looks to get really close before heading north but alot still has to happen. Currently there appears to be an upper level low forming off Tampa, I assume this is a spin off from Gustav's outflow... and until this clears out the environment around Hanna will be confusing and messy to say the least!

Ike worries me: lots of open water, due west path for several days just amazing that the atmosphere can support this many systems but we've seen this situation occur in other busy seasons.


Evan Johnson
(Weather Guru)
Mon Sep 01 2008 08:04 PM
Re: Concern

wow hanna is now stationary as of the 8pm advisory, and it looks to be gaining strength. on the infrared it looks massive. the forecast path from the 5pm to the 8pm nudged just a tad to the west. everyone should note the current rapid intensification of the storm.

Hugh
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Mon Sep 01 2008 08:37 PM
Re: Concern

Uh, the 8pm advisory says little change in strength - or movement - is expected over the next few days.
The forecast was not changed - as it hardly ever is - in the intermediate package, either.
Overall looking at the satellite, the size of the hurricane does appear to be growing, but I wouldn't say it's becoming better organized.


scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Mon Sep 01 2008 08:43 PM
Re: Concern

Hanna is a threat to northeastern S.C and southeastern N.C., I'm not sold though that it will only brush them. Hanna never got away from the upperlow that is impeded in the mid-layers. She is rotating around it in a weak flow environment. Eventually a ridge will slide in to her east and lift her NNW towards South Carolina. This is supported by almost all the models and I'm close to the GFDL on this. Hanna should be eventually pulled NE across the Outerbanks (or close to it).

Although Ill adjust my forecast later on Tuesday afternoon,I dont see any reason for this to impact Florida outside of swells,rip currents, and possibly a few squalls near the coast. NHC changes their forecast whenever models change. I usually keep a forecast unless I see a good reason to change it. I'm not again sold this will move inland at all though but I would say from near Mrytle Beach-Cape Lookout looks about right. Also again there is a chance it may stay offshore and brush the Outerbanks.


Evan Johnson
(Weather Guru)
Mon Sep 01 2008 08:53 PM
Re: Concern

in reference to hugh's post. the forecasted projected path was changed. is you look at the 5pm and the 8pm next to eachother you will see it was. unless the guy who makes these models had a jittery hand. and the storm went from ssw to stationary. and when i say better organized, i mean the storm is tighter, which it is from almost being torn apart yesterday.

metwannabe
(Weather Hobbyist)
Mon Sep 01 2008 09:22 PM
Re: Concern

The link below is very interesting, it shows all September Cat 1 or 2 hurricanes that have been within 300 miles of Hanna's location. How many actually hit Fl? Of course every TC path is different and due to the differences in the enviroment during each time, my only point is that, just because a TC comes "close" to Florida certainly does not mean landfall in Fl. In fact one could argue that we here in NC have just a much chance of landfall from a storm in that area as anywhere, climatologically speaken.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200808_climo.html#a_topad

With that said, looks as if Hanna has stalled or even attempting a kinda loop, she may be on verge of starting that northward motion.


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Mon Sep 01 2008 09:30 PM
Re: Concern

Quote:

The link below is very interesting, it shows all September Cat 1 or 2 hurricanes that have been within 300 miles of Hanna's location. How many actually hit Fl? Of course every TC path is different and due to the differences in the enviroment during each time, my only point is that, just because a TC comes "close" to Florida certainly does not mean landfall in Fl. In fact one could argue that we here in NC have just a much chance of landfall from a storm in that area as anywhere, climatologically speaken.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200808_climo.html#a_topad

With that said, looks as if Hanna has stalled or even attempting a kinda loop, she may be on verge of starting that northward motion.


and your point is? did someone say theres no chance of a carolina landfall? did we all miss that?

metwannabe
(Weather Hobbyist)
Mon Sep 01 2008 09:34 PM
Re: Concern

No. In fact, scottsvb clearly pointed out the possible threat to NC. The point is as has been noted, that all from Fl to NC still have to watch it and I thought the historical info was interesting.

My apologies to the Moderators I would have sent a PM but that option not available with this post, if need to move, I understand.


JulieTampa
(Verified CFHC User)
Mon Sep 01 2008 11:01 PM
Re: Concern

That graphic about "missing" Florida is fascinating! I would never have predicted that outcome. I'd be interested to see the August storms near that location, too, since it is "almost" August still.

Evan Johnson
(Weather Guru)
Tue Sep 02 2008 08:22 AM
Re: Concern

florida should keep a close eye on this. in my opinion, florida can forget this storm when it stops moving west. already it has defied earlier NHC projections as far as the northernly turn. they projected hanna to make that northernly turn about 2 or 3 days ago and it was projected to already make that turn. this is a crucial time for a no florida impact. lets continue to watch the updates today and hope that it makes that turn already. any more west movement and it might be too late and we might get more then a "graze".

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Tue Sep 02 2008 08:43 AM
Re: Concern

What do you think about IKE pushing Hanna more west as Hannat climbs north? Could be a player the models are not seeing yet.

John


metwannabe
(Weather Hobbyist)
Tue Sep 02 2008 08:54 AM
Re: Concern

I agree, the UKM 06Z model run (although only goes out 48hrs) shows Ike going a little north of Hanna and virtually no movement from Hanna. I'm no expert but seems this could be a real possibility.

JMII
(Weather Master)
Tue Sep 02 2008 09:02 AM
Re: Concern

Hanna continues to get sheared to death, I'm starting to doubt she'll even survive at this rate. Pretty soon she'll be pushed into Haiti! Once the shear lets up there is a bunch of dry air moving in from the north to block her.

LoisCane
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Tue Sep 02 2008 10:16 AM
Re: Concern

I think she'll survive. The Space Center I heard is already preparing for contingency plans and imagine there is no reason to doubt the NHC track. They have been great all year with slowly developing storms. Fay was progged to
intensify down the road and she did... same with others. So, if they feel she will find her groove I trust them.

Upper level shear only lasts so long and Hanna is over some very warm water and will ride the Gulf Stream once she makes her move which needs to be remembered.

It's a year for late bloomers it seems.

Remember 3 people have died from high surf already this weekend as rip currents are mean and fast off of Florida
from Hanna (attributed to Hanna on the local news) and that surf will pick up no matter where she goes so between
boaters and swimmers and beach erosion this storm has the potential for problems even if she doesn't become more than a Cat 1 or 2.


scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Tue Sep 02 2008 10:30 AM
Re: Concern

Evan, Florida should defidently still keep a eye on Hanna. Hanna will move very close to Florida. Any deviation to the left today by only 2dg will bring her over eastern florida.I stated that before Hanna became a hurricane, she had to get to around 74-75W before her turn back NW. This is a good example why I dont like to give out predictions more than 3 days out. The NHC makes predictions every 6hrs. My path yesterday had Hanna doing a loop and moving NW thru the Bahamas then throwing squalls in close to the coast of Florida then making landfall probably from Myrtle beach-Cape lookout or skiming the Outer Banks, and I'll adjust it this afternoon since its about 3 days or so from Florida and 4 from the Carolinas.

Evan Johnson
(Weather Guru)
Tue Sep 02 2008 10:41 AM
Re: Concern

absolutely scott you are right, it is extremely hard to go so far out. all of us here can only go by speculation and form a general opinion or consensus. i maybe go as far as 24 - 48 hours out because my main tracking tool is that goes-e sattelite. today is a very important day in the track, that west movement really worries me. however, it is having a lot of shear and it looks weaker than last night. it was almost the size of texas last night and yesterday afternoon. so lets watch it today and see where we can all go from there.

metwannabe
(Weather Hobbyist)
Tue Sep 02 2008 10:41 AM
Attachment
Re: Concern

I have attached a map of model outputs and, if correct, it appears the models have shifted slightly west and are tightly clustered. With the exception of the UKMet which has actually shifted east and has gone from the westen outlier to the eastern. I realize not a lot of confidence in model projections, but it may be a trend and would definately put NE Fl/ SE Ga firmly in the picture.

weathernet
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Sep 02 2008 11:05 AM
Re: Concern

Rodney~ Your right on the tendancy for some of the models to be leaning more "westward", or towards the left. I have been anticipating a greater impact on Hanna's structure, as caused by upper shear. Though it did not quite occur yesterday, the mid levels nontheless have been pushing Hanna southward slowly. I had actually strongly considered the possibility of Hanna weakening to a Tropical depression, which may yet occur, and to either continue to be pushed slightly farther to the south. Then, as the lower level BAMS model would more likely indicate, a farther westward motion could ensue due to the motion being more controlled by the lower level flow.

If this were to play out, then we might see a weak, yet still broad structure of a tropical cyclone move more westward to WNW perhaps even close to the N. Cuban coastlne, and "if", and when upper level shear conditions improve by tomm. sometime, then we might see a more NW motion. By this time however, the cone would need be shifted much farther to the south. Remains to be seen, but I see this as a real possiblility. Good news is that this scenario would allow less time for restrengthening before impacting land.

Ike has a good size envolope as well, but I believe that by the 5th day of current forecasts, it will just be nearing the longitude of Hispanola or E. Cuba, and Hanna might just have scooted out and be north of 30N by then. This is when we will have to see how steering will have changed or evolved, as far as whether or not there will be a weakness off the Eastern U.S. coast or not.


mcgowanmc
(Weather Hobbyist)
Tue Sep 02 2008 11:10 AM
Re: Concern

Quote:

Hanna continues to get sheared to death, I'm starting to doubt she'll even survive at this rate. Pretty soon she'll be pushed into Haiti! Once the shear lets up there is a bunch of dry air moving in from the north to block her.




Just to get this out there. I'm seeing just as much convection S of Haiti as North of the Island.

Any thought to what it would take to get Hanna going South of Haiti?

Is there a zero chance of this?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/rb-l.jpg


Evan Johnson
(Weather Guru)
Tue Sep 02 2008 11:13 AM
Re: Concern

the 11am advisory shifts the projected path once again to the west putting us more in the cone. however the cone has narrowed itself and the computer models are in more agreement. i am feeling preety comfortable now with the projected path. it will take a couple more updates for me to be sure of it though.

Lamar-Plant City
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Sep 02 2008 11:43 AM
Re: Concern

Quote:

the 11am advisory shifts the projected path once again to the west putting us more in the cone. however the cone has narrowed itself and the computer models are in more agreement. i am feeling preety comfortable now with the projected path . it will take a couple more updates for me to be sure of it though.




I must say that I am NOT feeling that comfortable even here on the west coast of FL which is on the extreme westerly edge of the current cone. Hanna has YET to do what the major (I.E. 'favored') models have been predicting of her. She is still moving wsw well after the time they have predicted her to begin moving nw. It just seems that SOMETHING is not being weighted properly in these equations (after all, that is what all of these models are at the core....mathematical equations using certain conditions as x, y, etc) to correctly predict Hanna's path. The narrowing of the cone is mostly because the UKMET has gone from the far west of the cone back toward the eastern part. If you are ANYWHERE in the Florida peninsula, now if not yet the time to relax with this storm....IF it holds together. Keep an eye on this cone.....the longer it takes Hanna to stop moving west and southwest, the worse those projections as looking....


LoisCane
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Tue Sep 02 2008 12:51 PM
Re: Concern

Thank you for that update, somehow reading all the discussion and advisories and looking at the models I had failed to see whole of Florida was in the cone.

I was going to say... she has a bright ball of convection going on back near her center.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh.html


weathernet
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Sep 02 2008 02:10 PM
Re: Concern

uh oh...., speaking of models, am curious to see if in light of the GFS now swinging more to the left with its 12Z run, if in fact the GFDL runs today will follow suit.

For the moment however, the latest NOGAPS ( as of 12Z today ) now shows Hanna closer and just off shore ( approx. 79W ? ) the greater Miami/Ft. Lauderdale area, and basically making landfall somewhere around W. Palm Beach, moving WNW'ward and sitting over Lake 'O in 66 hr's. This as well, is a swing to the left from both the 0Z and 6Z run. Of course, next run could be entirely the opposite.................. or greater confirmation of a possible trend to the left. More importantly, will wait and see if other models trend more westward or not.

My guess would have involved a more westward track in the short term, due to steering being controlled more by the lower levels. In fact, what "may" occur, might be this. NHC has duly been predicting a NW motion primarily caused by Hanna being at a point, where a large and strong 594mb mid level Atlantic ridge would be practically forcing a motion towards the NW. This high has been migrating westward across the Altantic, and will continue to do so, especially as a trough off Nova Scotia eventually pulls up and out of the picture. I believe that as such, the orientation of this mid level high would have already started impacting Hanna by now. However, perhaps either by northerly 200-300mb winds aloft ( which impact shear, and much less motion ), or simply because Hanna is simply somewhat more of a shallow system due to the very shear it is fighting, this very delay in the projected NW motion, even if by 12 or 24 hours, might just cause enough of a delay so that the orientation of the building W. Atlantic ridge, might just start filling over and north of Hanna enough, then rather than an outright NW motion to ensue, we might eventually start seeing a similar but more WNW motion instead. Almost as if a storm were rather "indented" into the lower left quadrant of a westward migrating ridge, rather than simply rounding the corner of it. If this theory were correct, than I would presume that once such a motion were to start, it might be fairly slow steady motion until once again, Hanna were to round the perifiery of the high, only then.....to turn more poleward.

This scenario, whether if exact or just causing the official forecast to be tweaked more westward, would seem to place Hanna too close to the lower Florida southeast coast than exact forecasting error would allow for error. Therefore, and purely assuming that model guidance does shift more westward, and more importantly, assuming that Hanna does track a little bit more west or WNW'ward......., I cannot help but imagine that Tropical Storm Watches would have to go up perhaps as early as late tonight for at least the Palm Beach coastline, and possibly even south from there. Naturally the longer any delay in Hanna's motion were to continue, than the the less likely Watches would be necessary until perhaps tommorrow.


metwannabe
(Weather Hobbyist)
Tue Sep 02 2008 02:29 PM
Re: Concern

Last couple of frames of vis sat loop almost appears that the convection tops are able to expand northward ever so slightly, indication that the shear may be starting to relax, I'm not sure. Any thoughts?

Also the wv imagery looks as if the outflow from "Gustav" has more of a northwestward or even westard component directly over Hanna as opposed to the more northerly component it had before. Not sure what implications this would have on intensity or track.

One last thought, IF Hanna were to have significant blow up of convection (as we have seen her do) and develop a little faster, would she still have time to feel the effects of the high and turn more northward sooner?


LoisCane
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Tue Sep 02 2008 02:51 PM
Re: Concern

I think you are right on this:

"or simply because Hanna is simply somewhat more of a shallow system due to the very shear it is fighting, this very delay in the projected NW motion, even if by 12 or 24 hours, might just cause enough of a delay so that the orientation of the building W. Atlantic ridge,"

Seriously, I have friends who are calling me bugging out why there are no watches up anywhere as she seems so close to south florida.

Not only does the cone show a westward bias it goes inland all the way towards Atlanta yet I have heard Savannah talking on evacuating in the media.

I think the next batch of models may tell the story even if we don't like them very much across most of Florida.


redlevel
(Registered User)
Tue Sep 02 2008 03:08 PM
Re: Concern

the latest advisory states Hannah has been drifting southeast today. So my question is how will this affect the track at 5:00pm?

weathernet
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Sep 02 2008 03:36 PM
Re: Concern

Quote:

the latest advisory states Hannah has been drifting southeast today. So my question is how will this affect the track at 5:00pm?




Well, I think it may have a small impact on the new NHC forecast track as of 5:00pm. I believe that on one hand, given a slightly greater eastward componant, this could allow slightly more room for Hanna to ultimately slide just that much more east of the South Florida coastline. HOWEVER...........................
the latest 12Z EURO model guidance is now approx. 100 miles left ( west ) the 0Z run, and now places Hanna on the Florida coast ( around Vero Beach perhaps ), as opposed to keeping the storm offshore Florida altogether. This westward shift, along with a westward shift of the 12Z GFS and NOGAPS, suggests to me that the new update might suggest slow erratic motion to continue through tonight, with a slow WNW to NW motion to commence tommorrow. I would be surprised if the cone is not at least slightly adjusted west and southward. More telling due to remaining uncertainties of motion, would be a slight adjustment of the wording of the advisory. Meaning, the recent and current forecast calls for motion towards the NW, however will be curious to see if enough uncertaintly has entered the picture where NHC might just starting discussing motion being more WNW instead. This would be a little telling of a possibly increasing concern regarding impact to somewhere on the Central or S. Florida coastline.

To me, even more intriguing would be if NHC remains insistant on a NW motion to commence soon, or if they were to now indicate that little or no motion might continue, and for how long. There is no doubt to me that Hanna may well traverse well east of Florida, however models are trending more westward and I am confident that the longer Hanna remains to the southeast of Florida, the greater the risk of Hanna directly impacting somewhere on the Florida coastline due to the approaching and building W. Atlantic ridge.


JMII
(Weather Master)
Tue Sep 02 2008 03:47 PM
Re: Concern

She just will not die! I've never seen a storm fight thru such shear. As noted before her path to the north is blocked, thus I assume the cone will keep shifting west. However at this rate Ike will run into Hanna and we'll be back to square one with both outflows tearing each other apart. This is getting rather silly.

bahamaweather
(Verified CFHC User)
Tue Sep 02 2008 04:09 PM
Re: Concern

What do you guys think this continued stall or drift to the WSW, SW will have on the potential impacts in the northern Bahamas? The 2PM advisory had Hanna to the Southwest of Abaco as a minimal Cat 1 on Thursday morning. Do you think that intensity and location is realistic given the steady shear and continued stall?

Joe
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Sep 02 2008 04:19 PM
Re: Concern

Well yet another day with Hanna not moving much from where it was yesterday in any even its a bit southeast of its location yesterday and is really just drifting about. Dont see much change over the next 24 hours with it likely moving little from where it is now.Hanna continue to me steered more southerly thanks to upper low in eastern Gulf combined with low in northwest Atlantic funneling southerly steering winds over Hanna. Shear remains on the high side around 20 knots or so. Expect slow and somewhat erratic movement through Wednesday before finally moving northwest. Right now my feeling is for Hanna to move northwest towards likely east central florida with possible landfall there. Not sure about a more north movement from there or a more continued northwest movement, leaning towards the first as right now I feel high will hold strong enough to drive it inland. Lean towards the NOGAPS solution right now. Strength wise I expect it to regain hurricane intensity as it moves up through the Bahamas and FL coast likely no more then maybe Cat 1 or low 2 at very most as I think shear may become issue again. All in all I feel low confidence in my reasoning but will see..

Patrick99
(Registered User)
Tue Sep 02 2008 04:28 PM
Re: Concern

Is it possible that all the models several days ago showing a dive south were right all along?

metwannabe
(Weather Hobbyist)
Tue Sep 02 2008 05:21 PM
Re: Concern

OK Weathernet I am officially confused. Your post was excellent and I agree with your statement below

"I would be surprised if the cone is not at least slightly adjusted west and southward. More telling due to remaining uncertainties of motion, would be a slight adjustment of the wording of the advisory."

HOWEVER, are my eyes playing tricks on me or did the NHC track shift slightly east? Not sure of the reasoning behind that shift.


Ed in Va
(Weather Master)
Tue Sep 02 2008 06:16 PM
Re: Concern

I think it has moved a bit to the east, pretty close to the UKMET. I wonder what implications this has for the future track predictions of Ike, where Uthe KMET is is a definitely an outlier and quite a bit to the north of the current track.

OrlandoDan
(Weather Master)
Tue Sep 02 2008 06:20 PM
Re: Concern

I am totoally lost on this one. Does the delay with Hanaa moving north or west mean that the ridge will deepen and move west and Hanna's track should be adjusted more west? I thought I considered that a viable position and outlook on this storm.

weathernet
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Sep 02 2008 06:23 PM
Re: Concern

[quote.....HOWEVER, are my eyes playing tricks on me or did the NHC track shift slightly east? Not sure of the reasoning behind that shift.




Rodney~ Your probably right and although I have yet to check out the late afternoon dynamic model run, I can only assume that those at NHC certainly know more than I do. I will also say this....., the 18Z GFS ( as well as NAM ) now is nudged back to the east, keeping Hanna off the Florida coast. One thing for sure, I did not get any impression from reading the cyclone discussion, that there was much indecision on their forecast. Pretty impressive to say the least. That said..........., am sticking to my guns and believe Hanna will make landfall on the Florida central or east coast, or at least close enough to spread sustained T.S. conditions at some point from Vero southward. Until I actually see a northwest motion, I am anticipating at least a short term W to WNW motion first. ( Perhaps i'll at least go out to the store and buy the "crow" now, so to save myself the trip in about 3 days - LOL ).


craigm
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Sep 02 2008 07:48 PM
Re: Concern

Metw--The GFDL is one of the major players and it has shifted east with subsequent NHC shift. Focus on the track error not each individual run.

saltysenior
(Verified CFHC User)
Tue Sep 02 2008 07:52 PM
Re: Concern



you are right....i must make sure the kentucky gentle man has a safe place .........one thing bad,.with all this action, the insurance co.s have plenty of ammo. for next years rates...


metwannabe
(Weather Hobbyist)
Tue Sep 02 2008 08:07 PM
Re: Concern

I understand the models tend to shift back and forward, always have, that is why I do have tons of confidence in the experts at NHC and not so much in each and every model run. With that said the GFS shows a loop and I would guess if Hanna continues to have an eastward drift that once she does turn north she will pass back over her previous points - loop. It may have been the GFS or another model that showed this loop several days ago. So while models do flop back and forward at times their overall long term forecast is still amazingly accurate to me.

If Hanna continues to drift east and completes the loop as she is steered nw then I would think the path of the GFS is more likely and would put SC back in the "bullseye".


scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Tue Sep 02 2008 08:52 PM
Re: Concern

Hanna has Stalled. She is waiting for the weak upper low that is to her north near 25N and 75W to move SW, Hanna should then move north then NW as she slides around the upper low. She then should continue NW then north as the ridge builds in to her east. Question mark is when will she actually start her move north and how much of a turn NW or WNW will take place, then when will she turn back north. These are the questions with Hanna. Right now models dont expect her to start moving for another 6-10hrs.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Tue Sep 02 2008 10:08 PM
Re: Concern

whats with that massive upper level low around the north east coast? bastardi? hmm

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Tue Sep 02 2008 10:10 PM
Re: Concern

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/satellite/Bermuda/WV/atl_wv1_loop.gif

metwannabe
(Weather Hobbyist)
Tue Sep 02 2008 11:14 PM
Re: Concern

THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO CUT-OFF TO
THE NORTHWEST OF HANNA VERY SOON...AND THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THAT THIS IS BEGINNING TO OCCUR.

This appears to be happening at the very southern most point of the digging trough, if you look closely you can see (on wv loop) hint at cyclonic turning in upper levels over the central Bahamas. Only thing I do not see yet is the large ULL in the n'east moving out, in fact it seems to be moving slightly to the west. This should be temporary but not sure how soon it will start to move out.

If the developing ULL does cut-off and drift south and Hanna can hang on for another 24 hrs tomorrow night at this time I would think things would, finally, for better or worse, look much different.


scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Wed Sep 03 2008 12:09 AM
Re: Concern

Well I been getting alot of PMS about my forecast for Hanna and I really cant see much to change my projection of a brush with squalls and strong rip currents on floridas east coast and a probable hit from north of Charleston S.C.-Cape Lookout N.C. There is even a chance it only hits the southern outbanks and stays off the mainland. The slight east movement today is noted by the Strong upper low in the NW Atlantic with a piece of energy diving down into Cuba. A weak upper low is in the bahamas around 24N and 76W and moving SW. Hanna is stationairy and will move north and northwest as the weak upper level low moves towards the Fla Straits by later Thursday-Friday. As the ridge builds in to Hannas east with the Stronger ULL in the NW Atlantic moving out, she will move N along the edge of the ridge and make that possible landfall. The ridge will become slanted in a NE-SW angle, so Hanna may move more NE if the landfall is further up near Cape Lookout.
Florida chances of a direct hit are slim but not out of the woods cause of 1 main thing. She weakens tonight,and if so, may go with the LLF more WNW. We will see if her pressure rises tonight to over 993mb, and winds come down to 50mph or so. Remember the models are expecting her to be stronger and get pulled north faster cause of it, but if she remains weak, she will move WNW.


JMII
(Weather Master)
Wed Sep 03 2008 08:17 AM
Re: Concern

What's left of Hanna is about to get a big scoop of dry air, she is a fighter so I'll guess she'll survive another day and slowly wobble north. I think she missed her chance to swing west and get close to FL, now she is cut off and must move more north-ish first. At this point I'm shocked to see she is still out there... twice yesterday all the cloud tops were blown off by the shear only to reform further south and start the whole process over again. Any normal storm would have been reduced to a depression by now after taking such a beat down.

LoisCane
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Wed Sep 03 2008 08:27 AM
Re: Concern

scary words..any normal storm, that's what makes her a concern

however she has been dancing with this ULL since she was an invest, it always inhibited her and imagine she has found a way to work around it or with it..

a local tv weather person in miami pointed out that when storms loop like this down there they often sling shot fast north once they move so.. keep watching

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/sloop-wv.html

don't see how she gets west enough for South Florida to feel much though... Carolinas and north should worry

I mean how long can she hang down there.. unless Ike is the item that blows the ULL off the map and then... well, that would be some scenario i suppose

this loop from ortt really shows it all well

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/satellite/Bermuda/WV/atl_wv1_loop.gif

amazingly


Evan Johnson
(Weather Guru)
Wed Sep 03 2008 09:29 AM
Re: Concern

at this point ike and josephine might get into a atlantic turf gang beatdown with hanna. im just boggled its moving east though i never would have pegged that. models earlier on this week did, but it comes to a bit of a surprise. where this thing will go yet is still uncertin, even the weathermen on tv here are still very confused about this situation. i know there is a lot of factors but in my opinion, 1) if it drifts back west for a little while longer, florida will be in play. 2) if it makes that turn now, the eastern most part of florida (myself included) will see like 30 or 40 mph winds and some heavy rain squalls. from being comfortable yesterday now im uncertain.

Lamar-Plant City
(Storm Tracker)
Wed Sep 03 2008 12:26 PM
Re: Concern

I am feeling much better about Hanna today. with that whole turn around thing she did yesterday, I was worried about her moving too far west and Florida getting much more. But now with her looping around and beginning her northward move WITHOUT a lot of westward motion, it looks like Hanna is going to stay safely east of us here. Will get some beach erosion on the east coast, and a couple of squalls, but not much else.

LoisCane
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Wed Sep 03 2008 01:23 PM
Re: Concern

Agreed. Feels better to see the cone nudged to the right. Worried though on Ike, trying not to as there is a long way to go but he is getting closer fast.

Realized from this loop that not only did Hanna move but I think the ULL has moved a bit too.

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/satellite/Bermuda/WV/atl_wv1_loop.gif

Our fears go north towards Cape Fear and the Carolinas.

Ike really is moving into our side of the Atlantic fast. Think the Keys are in the highest part of concern
right now.

http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/stormspotlight.php?year=2008&storm=9


JMII
(Weather Master)
Wed Sep 03 2008 01:42 PM
Re: Concern

I don't like Ike either. When Hanna finally moves on Ike will have a path (or wake) to follow. So if you take Ike's current cone then add Hanna's current cone the two overlap right on South FL's doorstep. And he has that classic "buzzsaw" look, very symmetrical and moving at a good clip. Still way too early to judge but I'm not a fan of these long tracking storms that skirt the islands... no mountains to get in the way with plenty of warm water and at some point you just know a turn to the NW around the Bermuda High is coming.

Bev
(Weather Guru)
Wed Sep 03 2008 02:17 PM
Re: Concern

Excellent site, can zoom in on path of any storm, see each forecast point and location by hovering over, and enable GOES while viewing. The windfield yellow stuff gets in the way, but click storms at top, unclick a storm and re-select it and leave windfield blank and it removes it. Shows Hanna's loop very well, as well as the forecast points for Ike following in her wake.

http://www.ibiseye.com/


LoisCane
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Wed Sep 03 2008 02:41 PM
Re: Concern

but how far will the high extend at that point? therein lies the big question..

i think you just described a cape verde sort of storm

"ong tracking storms that skirt the islands... no mountains to get in the way with plenty of warm water and at some point you just know a turn to the NW around the Bermuda High"

and sometimes they turn wnw... depends on the bermuda high...

hate to see that cone at 5...

and Hanna is sailing along at 10mph nnW that's like Nascar speed for Hanna


ftlaudbob
(Storm Chaser)
Wed Sep 03 2008 05:13 PM
Re: Concern

I do not like the latest track for Ike at all.I really hope this changes.It would not hit any land mases until S.Florida.I will be watching Ike like a hawk from here on out.

metwannabe
(Weather Hobbyist)
Wed Sep 03 2008 08:38 PM
Re: Concern

OK I know this is the Central Fl Hur Cen and primary focus is there. But for the handfull of us from the Tarheel state that really trust this site, any comments on Hanna as far as possible impact to NC? Last couple frames of sat loop appears to have convection firing near the center, could she still get her act together and will she make a westward move? I notice she is currently moving due north. I think scottsvb posted earlier today that her convection at that time was driven by the ULL to her sw is the convetion now being driven by her on pressure falls or still influenced by the ULL? One last thing, I notice that the huge upper level trough in the n'east is finally moving out, I that would allow the high to build in and possibly push her northwestward.

MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Thu Sep 04 2008 08:03 AM
Re: Concern

Quote:

OK I know this is the Central Fl Hur Cen and primary focus is there. But for the handfull of us from the Tarheel state that really trust this site, any comments on Hanna as far as possible impact to NC? Last couple frames of sat loop appears to have convection firing near the center, could she still get her act together and will she make a westward move? I notice she is currently moving due north. I think scottsvb posted earlier today that her convection at that time was driven by the ULL to her sw is the convetion now being driven by her on pressure falls or still influenced by the ULL? One last thing, I notice that the huge upper level trough in the n'east is finally moving out, I that would allow the high to build in and possibly push her northwestward.




It'll probably be a category 1 hurricane at landfall. Hanna lost the inner core, and as sheared as it is it would take a long time to regenerate it. If it does, then strengthening could happen quicker. The rule of thumb is to prepare for 1 category above what is projected, so I'd prepare for a Category 2 hurricane impacting your area and hoping for less.

But this is the time where local media and officials are going to be way better than anything on the internet.

One thing is to check the local hurricane statements Wilmington NC Local Hurricane Statement


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Thu Sep 04 2008 09:58 AM
Re: Concern

I still believe that IKE will push HANNA more west then predicted. But I could be wrong.

doug
(Weather Analyst)
Thu Sep 04 2008 10:21 AM
Re: Concern

Still moving NNW, but the Satellite appearance has most of the trouble loaded on the west side, and I think it gives an appearance of going more west than it is.
The implications of Hanna going more west are much more ominous to Central Florida because of the questions that will raise about IKE. To me that would mean that high is pretty strong, and it will likely push IKE further west too.
UGH!


LoisCane
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Thu Sep 04 2008 11:28 AM
Re: Concern

Not sure if it's movement or realignment or shape. Hanna looks very subtropical to me. I am sure there is a center in there somewhere but we'll see.

Just read the discussion and they confirm what I am seeing so glad I am not losing my mind.

"very dry air associated with the upper-level low over the
northwestern Bahamas is choking off convection near the core of
Hanna...and the cyclone has a very subtropical appearance."

so... there is more moisture and less of a concentrated wind field ... a lot of hurricane history scenarios go through my mind here..

Was this forecast? Hanna going subtropical faster than expected and if so imagine she may get more to the west of track and that eastern seaboard track may ..note I said *may* be not so far fetched a scenario.

Also... good comment, very possible. Hanna is getting the squeeze play between Ike shoving at her and from the north...

"I still believe that IKE will push HANNA more west then predicted. But I could be wrong. "

Might be a problem, watch the wv carefully for this.. watch the right side of a high being pushed at Hanna from Ike?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-wv.html



Ed in Va
(Weather Master)
Thu Sep 04 2008 11:33 AM
Re: Concern

I think Hanna is much ado about nothing. One of the local mets in Norfolk likened it to a winter northeaster, which I think is an apt comparison. Nonetheless, the Governor has just declared a State of Emergency....ridiculous. If you cry wolf too many times, what will happen if a major hurricane like Ike comes our way...will anyone pay attention?

doug
(Weather Analyst)
Thu Sep 04 2008 11:40 AM
Re: Concern

Yeah, as time goes on Hanna's effect on the IKE solution is less and less. Also Hanna IS NOT strong enough to really penetrate that ridge to her north.
That ridge is already pretty strong it seems.
Very interesting twist in the dynamic potentially


Ed in Va
(Weather Master)
Thu Sep 04 2008 03:43 PM
Re: Concern

Looks like Hanna hasn't quite given up the ghost yet. Quite a bit of flare-up and getting closer to having a closed center. We saw the same thing yesterday, so this may only be a temporary situation.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html


Bev
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 04 2008 05:32 PM
Re: Concern

Ed,
One excellent reason for posting an early state of emergency is to prevent price gouging for those purchasing supplies and fuel. If for no other reason, that's a positive result that saves significant amounts of money for people just beginning to prepare for the hurricane season. Without that preventive measure your gas might shoot up a couple $ per gallon as people try to profit from those preparing for a possible storm.

In addition, strength forecasting is one of the most difficult and error-prone areas of hurricane studies. It's difficult for the models and the mets. Better safe than sorry would the motto of the officials.

Although I can agree that any hint of a storm leads to near hysteria these days, when in past years we simply prepared our properties and got out of the way. (or some of us, right in the way I attribute this change to the non-stop Katrina sensationalism that continues to this day.

In some ways it's good, it was a strong wake-up call for government agencies, local, state and national. In other ways it isn't so good as it seems to reduce the populace to a panicked mess. When Gustav was clearly headed for NO and not the west coast of FL, we still received 103 phone calls from elderly people who wanted their homes boarded up now, this instant, hurry! We only received 4 calls prior to Charley, many barrier island folks didn't evacuate and we were ground zero until that last minute dash into Port Charlotte. The contrast is stark.

So as lessons are learned, the pendulum will swing from hyper-alertness back into complacency if we aren't hit again by a major storm any time soon. But yes, there is the "cry wolf" syndrome to consider. That will usher in the complacency. I imagine fewer will leave NO next time, as their experience with the Gustav evacuation was unpleasant and costly when they weren't allowed to return home for many days. Unfortunate but inevitable.


metwannabe
(Weather Hobbyist)
Thu Sep 04 2008 06:32 PM
Re: Concern

I do not want to write off Hanna just yet. Let's face it, in most years TC's would have dissapated by now in this hostile enviroment and yet she continues to be able to fire off convection. And this statement in the NHC discusion catches my attention...

THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING HANNA IS FINDING THE
CIRCULATION CENTER AT 850 MB DISPLACED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE MEAN
CENTER OF ROTATION APPARENT IN THE LOW CLOUD LINES. THERE ARE ALSO
MULTIPLE SWIRLS...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS
JUMPED A LITTLE BIT TO THE WEST IN RESPONSE TO THE CONVECTIVE
ASYMMETRY.

Does this mean that the LLC is trying one last time to re-locate under the deep convection? And if so this would mean a slight westward shift in track and I would guess that if convection could maintain there is the warm waters of the gulf stream ahead, there could be a small window of possible strenghtening.

Also something not being mentioned much by NHC or local mets is that the speed of Hanna would bring strong tropical storm force winds well inland and far up the coast line. Projections are for 60 mph winds around NC/VA border several hundred miles from landfall, some cat 2 or 3 hurricanes do not bring much more wind then this inland because they are not moving as fast. Just some thoughts and some things for NC/VA, and others in her path, to keep an eye on.


TPuppy
(Registered User)
Fri Sep 05 2008 12:26 AM
Re: Concern

State of Emergency

Hum, sounds bad, panicky, cry wolfish. Not so, the way this USA disaster system works is exactly like what Bev said, the sooner the better in the federal/state situation. A lot of ‘good things’ for residence happen once that ‘state of emergency’ declaration goes out. There is a long list of positives and not many negatives especially for the working class residents, so if you didn’t vote for your current governor this time around you may want to next time, because he must know the ropes. You may feel that it is alarmist, but in reality all kinds of safe guards and insurance benchmarks go into effect once a state of emergency is declared (and accepted). States cannot just declare without federal approval, so if a state of emergency has been declared and approved, you as a resident of the state can only benefit, as a business owner, you have to decide. But in most cases, if your county is declared a ‘state of emergency’, and things go wrong you will win the governmental struggle. If you have a bad situation, and your county is not in the ‘state of emergency’ envelope and something unexpected/bad happens : Re-elect, take an aspirin, change insurance companies, and bad mouth everyone else.


syfr
(Verified CFHC User)
Fri Sep 05 2008 07:39 PM
Beginnings

Some occasional heavy rain bands beginning here (SE of Raleigh ~30 miles). Going to be a soggy night for sure. Dead calm outside now, however.


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