watchinout
(Verified CFHC User)
Sun Aug 31 2008 10:54 PM
Ike Lounge

I know we been talking about Gus alot and Hanna is looking alot better. But far out to the east I don't think 97L is 97L anymore it looks like a depression or tropical storm to me what do yall think ?

(Started a 97L Lounge with this post.)


hurricane expert
(Really Not an Expert)
Mon Sep 01 2008 12:51 AM
Re: 97L Lounge

Yea I agree it looks like we might have tropical depression or tropical storm ike out there already .

cieldumort
(Moderator)
Mon Sep 01 2008 05:57 AM
Re: 97L Lounge

Highly likely that 97L is already a TD. NHC has had their hands a little full overnight, but with a little more daylight and perhaps a microwave and a better scatt pass or two on the way, it seems reasonable to presume that it gets declared 09L today (Monday) and given how it has been improving so far, with nothing looking terribly problematic for it in the near-term, perhaps also becomes Ike by tonight or tomorrow morning.

MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Wed Sep 03 2008 02:38 PM
Re: Ike Lounge

More models seem to be picking up on a Recurve around the time Ike nears the Bahamas, and so far I think this is the most likely scenario. If hanna moves more North than west, then both would be out to sea before any significant land impacts.

I'm hoping for the model trends to continue to place Ike with a more hard right turn to the north and east away from land.


JMII
(Weather Guru)
Wed Sep 03 2008 05:39 PM
Re: Ike Lounge

Not really happy with 5PM Ike update, but not surprised by it either.

A couple of things to look at for clues as to where Ike will go: 1) what Hanna does since Ike should follow in her footsteps somewhat, 2) how big and/or strong the high pressure ridge to his north come Sunday/Monday , 3) the location of the edge of said high pressure. Forecast is for intensification up to Cat 2, followed by some weaken due to shear (and a slightly SW slide), followed by strengthening up to Cat 3 and then that infamous NW curve. Got a week to go to so alot can change but like I said in the Hanna lounge I don't like Ike already!

Currently Ike is starting to run into some shear from Hanna's outflow but he's got a strong core and just another day of dry air to overcome.


saluki
(Weather Hobbyist)
Wed Sep 03 2008 06:03 PM
Re: Ike Lounge

Well, I like Mike (who points out that several models show recurvature scenarios) much better than Ike! I'll be very interested to see how the NHC's 5 p.m. forecast holds up and if the high is strong enough to cause the predicted west-southwest movement Friday and into Saturday.

Ben F.
(Registered User)
Wed Sep 03 2008 08:36 PM
Re: Ike Lounge

Ike is now a Category 3. This is what I have feared, a major hurricane headed to South Florida. This could be worse thna Francis, Jean or Wilma. I don't wish a hurricane on anyone else, but I really hope this dissipates or goes into the Atlantic and breaks up.

ftlaudbob
(Storm Chaser)
Wed Sep 03 2008 08:42 PM
Re: Ike Lounge

Wow!If this forcast track is anywhere near what it is now,come Friday,than SE Florida really needs to prepare for a major cane.Ike is fast becoming a monster.

MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Wed Sep 03 2008 08:55 PM
Re: Ike Lounge

Stronger hurricanes tend to move poleward sooner,I'd be more worried if it stayed weaker. I'm in wait and see mode. Check back this weekend.

The other possibility (less likely, but possible) is that it enhances the ridge and moves more westward. Either way I'm not too concerned yet.


ltpat228
(Storm Tracker)
Wed Sep 03 2008 09:03 PM
Re: Ike Lounge

I find the below visual from stormpulse.com very intricate and easy to read.

I realize on the Main Page near the bottom, CFHC provides many links to various other sites, so I especially wanted to bring this particual link to the forefront as it's quite basic for me to read and understand as I'm a simple woman seeking simple answers.

http://www.stormpulse.com/hurricane-ike-2008


OrlandoDan
(Storm Tracker)
Wed Sep 03 2008 09:29 PM
Re: Ike Lounge

Question: Does anyone know a site that has long term satellite loops with the most recent image being fairly current? I have been looking for quite some time but cannot find a good site that shows multiple days of image loops of wide or even focused views of storms.

ftlaudbob
(Storm Chaser)
Thu Sep 04 2008 01:50 AM
Re: Ike Lounge

Where are the mets?We need some input as far as the track of Ike.Please chime in.

SeaMule
(Weather Hobbyist)
Thu Sep 04 2008 07:37 AM
intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot

What is interesting in the sudden ramping up of Ike, is that the SST's he is encountering didn't seem strong enough to support a strong cat 4....yet, here we are. It just goes to show you what they admit....that intensity forecasts are not easy, and the current knowledge is limited. I do admire their ability to track the paths however...and with Ike, we have a major player on our hands. I have one question however.....with the intensity of Ike...now a cat 4....doesn't the upper ridge he is carrying along, and his cat 4 intensity...change somewhat the effect the steering currents will have? I would think that major swings in direction would be minimized....sorta plow through....instead of large changes in direction?

My thinking is because when looking back at major hurricanes... Andrew....Katrina....Gilbert.....they all seem to kinda be less effected by weaker steering currents....

Do you think the models are able to adjust the forecasts....when they plug the fact their is a cat 4 on their hands now? I would think their would be some deviation in the track...

That being said...I think it will get on a more westerly track...and not deviate much....

putting, in my mind....so Florida...and specifically....

Miami.....

in the bullseye...imho......lol


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Thu Sep 04 2008 07:49 AM
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot *DELETED*

Post deleted by MikeC

MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Thu Sep 04 2008 07:50 AM
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot

I moved mule's post to the Lounge since it was taking a lounge type guess on the main page. Personally I don't think that will happen.

What we do have is a category 4 storm, which won't hold that for 5 days, shear will weaken it a bit, it may go stronger for a bit, it may go down to a category 1. If it maintains the core it will be a problem, but it likely won't.

Ike Turning north depends on a developing trough to its north, and how much riding Ike may help generate as a major. It's likely to be a close call, but I don't think it's worth trying to take a guess an exact landfall point now (or the lack of landfall).

The Latest GFDL is interesting, it takes it south, stays north of Cuba then heads generally toward Florida, but at a curve that still has out to sea a possibility. If Ike is still showing this over the weekend, then there will be more to be concerned with. Anyone getting Anxious about it now is jumping the gun.

But still we'd like to hear, what do you think will happen?



ftlaudbob
(Storm Chaser)
Thu Sep 04 2008 08:01 AM
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot

Quote:



What we do have is a category 4 storm, which won't hold that for 5 days, shear will weaken it a bit, it may go stronger for a bit, it may go down to a category 1. If it maintains the core it will be a problem, but it likely won't.





Down to a cat 1?The NHC says it will go down to a cat 3,then back up to a cat 4.This looks to be a very close call for SE Florida.


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Thu Sep 04 2008 08:34 AM
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot

Quote:

If Ike is still showing this over the weekend, then there will be more to be concerned with. Anyone getting Anxious about it now is jumping the gun.





there is a fine line between anxious and concerned. as a 50-yr resident of east central florida, i'm very concerned about the good possibility of a W/NW moving catagory 4 hurricane in the Bahamas on the september 10th peak of the season.


Evan Johnson
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 04 2008 09:28 AM
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot

well we all know how inaccurate a 5 day projected path can be at times. however, this worries me a bit. fl hasnt had this nasty of a storm since andrew. and as long as that thing stays south of the bahamas we got a real large problem on our hand. this is something we all need to glue our eyes on. for what its worth, it looks like when it gets to the bahamas, it will make a northernly turn but we know how that goes. its a crapshot.

MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Thu Sep 04 2008 09:47 AM
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot

Quote:

Quote:

If Ike is still showing this over the weekend, then there will be more to be concerned with. Anyone getting Anxious about it now is jumping the gun.





there is a fine line between anxious and concerned. as a 50-yr resident of east central florida, i'm very concerned about the good possibility of a W/NW moving catagory 4 hurricane in the Bahamas on the september 10th peak of the season.




Yep this is a wake up call for some, and the cone is concerning, but I'm not really anxious yet. If it can maintain the core itself through the shear (Which is what the NHC thinks) then it will maintain major. But I think the discussion says it best about intensity forecasts, near term they aren't that good, 3-5 days out they are educated guesses.


okihabu
(Verified CFHC User)
Thu Sep 04 2008 10:27 AM
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot

I agree with Mike on this issue. But a 5 day forecast? Correct me if I am wrong on this, but dont most Cat 4/5's stay on the same general course they are heading? I dont think Ike will be that level, cat 3 maybe. I think a general nnw when it gets to the bahamas. The trough will pull it that way. Now if it does as NHC says and gains back to a cat 4 then S. Florida should watch Ike closely.

Bev
(Weather Hobbyist)
Thu Sep 04 2008 10:34 AM
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot

My understanding is that a hurricane or tropical storm leaves a path of cooler water temperatures in her wake. Considering Ike is predicted to travel for some time directly in Hanna's wake, is this likely to have an inhibiting effect on strength in addition to the increased shear?

note:
overlapping paths can be easily seen here: http://www.ibiseye.com

Edited: Never mind, the 11am NHC advisory answered my question. Ask and ye shall receive. lol


JMII
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 04 2008 10:37 AM
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot

Ike looks very Andrew like to me: small but powerful. Hurricane force winds only extend out 35 miles according the NHC, this is downright tiny in general storm terms. These little storms tend to track more linear due to their compact shape and high spin rates, just a top spinning stays put till is slows and begins to wobble like crazy (like Fay & Hanna did)

Ike over came a slot of dry air very quickly by keeping his core isolated and just plowing straight forward. Ahead of him is the same shear that is ripping Hanna apart, but she never had any core for defense. Still Ike will lose some punch, but considering he was forecast to be only a Cat 2 and made it to Cat 4 this weakening will be as dramatic (down to Cat 2 maybe). The effects of the Hanna's outflow (no matter how sloppy) is already effected Ike's west side and pushing him NW as predicted so the current track is verifying nicely.

Thus the NHC's future track looks reasonable to me, the longer Ike stays below 25N the more worried I get here in South FL since a late NW turns puts us in the strike zone of a major 'cane. Now Hanna keeps trending east so when Ike turns he too should be on the east side of the cone as clearly the models don't have a handle on pressure to the north. I would image the NHC will be flooding the area NW of Hanna/Ike with recon missions so data should improve. Down the road there is a front coming that could also kick-the-baby (South Park reference) more east. Like I said before keep an eye on Hanna's track and wait for that NW turn on Monday, that will be when the real nail biting in South FL will start. Also for what is worth historical data supports Ike missing S FL (Isabel 2003 for example).


LoisCane
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Thu Sep 04 2008 10:46 AM
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot

Great discussion. Went back and looked at the interaction between the storms or more so Hanna's wetting up the atmosphere. As said by the NHC she is big.. huge in size though not in strength. Much like an early wave by Africa moistens up the environment so is Hanna. Will that weaken the high... not sure how that works. High is strongly in place.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_vis_ls_0.html

Hanna is really pulling it together, again her convective mass if not her wind speed.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_wv_ls_0.html

The story will have new chapters soon, soon...

Being played out on real time here before our eyes!


Evan Johnson
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 04 2008 10:52 AM
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot

the 11am update hasnt changed too much with the projected path. it put the soutern most part of florida more in the cone thats about it. simple as this we all just got to watch it for a couple more days. its south movement once it gets to the bahamas, worries me a bit but what can we do.

LoisCane
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Thu Sep 04 2008 11:24 AM
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot

A wise man worries when it is necessary. When he does make that forecasted dip I think a lot of people in South Florida are going to hold their breaths collectively.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_wv_ls_0.html

Looks stronger than it is and yes I know it's strong.

Hanna looks more subtropical than anything else and though her moisture is all over the place.

The trough is beginning to push away the feature that's been carving away at Hanna (look how it just dipped down and flattened the top or the moisture) and then what? Not a great scenario and need to get better at the timing issue. Ike is relentlessly moving steady west north west. Normally his lat would give me some breathing space but with the projected dip WSW... we have to wait and see.

Recon goes in tomorrow I believe.


Evan Johnson
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 04 2008 11:52 AM
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot

well according to the recent track, the point where they have it on 8am on monday will be the tell all, atleast as of now. it looks at that point it will progessivly make the north turn. but just out of curiousity, through the storms i have witnessed, dont the stronger, quicker ones have the harder time making that northern turn? storms like fay and hanna dont have that issue it stalls, gets strong, gets weak, goes stationary and picks a direction. but this son of a gun is moving quickly and its strong. what does everyone think?

ftlaudbob
(Storm Chaser)
Thu Sep 04 2008 12:45 PM
IKE

Three of the most reliable models(GFDL,NGFDL &NOGAPS) have Ike coming into S. Florida via the north east coast of Cuba.Let's hope they are wrong and the other models don't follow suit.

weathernet
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Sep 04 2008 01:17 PM
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot

Generally, larger tropical cyclones are less likely to be affected by more transient influences on steering, especially if they are deep systems and well developed. On the other hand, it is typically more common to see smaller tropical cyclones jog, dip, or simply be steered by similar blocking ridges or even weak troughs. Actually, I have not found any greater significance to a hurricane being very strong or not, with regards to how it is steered by weaker influences. Simply that smaller storms in general seems to more easily alter course. Perhaps also stands to reason, how in some cases if a hurricane is a very deep system, but quite large, that it is itself impacting the environment ( i.e. warming the upper layers by means of extensive outflow ). Though powerful, I do not believe that a small hurricane would tend to alter the larger overall environment.

Well, looking at the overnight runs of GFS into this morning, I cannot help but believe that Ike will in fact gain a little more latitude than NHC has presently forecasted. This could of course be a good thing - if enough poleward motion is attained in the short term. What I mean by this is such: The building 594 high pressure ridge is actually forecast to form close to the point where Ike is to be today, into tommorrow. I have a hard time seeing how the heights are not rising first to the hurricanes north and northeast, however the GFS models seems to suddenly have such high mid level heights to the storms NW in the near term. At minimum, I believe that Ike will gain more latitude than NHC believes, and will cross north of 25N latitude. If in fact the height rises are distincly more to the NE of Ike, along with the existing weakness off the U.S. seaboard, than the possibility might really exist for Ike to perhaps slow down, but continue more NW'ward that forecast. If such occured for 36hr.'s or more, than I can see an issue of where Ike could be caught in a COL and have minimal steering for a while. I am less sure of the ultimate result then, if left with the prospect of Ike possibly affecting the Carolinas or mid Atlantic states, or eventually just swinging up ahead of some possible eventual weakness.

On the other hand, and assume greater short term accuracy by NHC, and perhaps Ike remains south of 25N. Then, I do not see a real WSW motion, because of the close proximity of Ike to the center of this strong mid level high, but more of a general westward motion. Worse yet, timing would now be possibly changed because again, Ike might not be situated far enough to the south of the center of this ridge, but more "indented" into it. I would imagine a slower motion than we've seen - and perhaps an agonizingly slow westward crawl at about 8-10mph. Now, without such a southward bend to its course, it on one hand would be seemingly unlikely for a hurricane this far east at such a latitude to be able to simply continue to travel westward for too long, yet I do not see nearly enough of a reason for significant poleward motion throughout, because I do not see any obvious troughing to break down the W. Atlantic ridge. What appears to me to occur, is that the 594 W. Atlantic high maintains its integrity, but simply slides more eastward. One would then assume that Ike would follow the coutour of the more eastward strong high, thus creating a more NW motion. I however only see where a small temporary WNW motion would ensue, more or less just as Ike rounds the larger W. Atlantic high, until the next primary steering influence takes over. As far as I can see, that would be another, though weaker high centered over the Gulf Of Mexico and extending over eastward from there. If given any significant dip in the westerlies or short wave off the U.S. east coast, one could easily make the argument that this will degrade this weak ridge - and such would likely happen. Looking at the available 6Z GFS data ( and previous run as well ), I see what appears a a large dip of the westerlies, almost like a weak but broad trough, entirely over the central CONUS, with the 500mb 582mb line not coming much south of Kansas. This trough does not appear to be digging, nor dropping a short wave down the U.S. east coast. Therefore, by my interpretation, there would seem to be significant ridging from the W. Atlantic well west into the Gulf of Mexico ( at least around 25N latitude ). Steering could be weak and perhaps even maintain only a slow 5kt. forwad motion, but I cannot see how Ike would not be forced more or less West to WNW at most, at the very end of the forecast time frame. This all said, I would tend to think an area from w. Palm Beach, Florida, north to Fort Pierce, Florida - perhaps to be of greatest risk of a possible Cat. 3/4 ( ASSUMING the many possible changes in long range steering which certainly is realisitic to realize given projections based on data so far out in time ).

As a disclaimer, please keep in mind, that the 12z GFS ( as well as a myriad of additional model data ) will update shortly, and this hypothesis could be just as easily be "thrown out the window" in a matter of hours. Simply my take on circumstances "of the moment".


TheElNino1
(Registered User)
Thu Sep 04 2008 03:31 PM
12Z European shows big westward shift..

I was surprised by the latest European 12Z forecast for Ike. Instead of side swiping Florida it now takes the storm into Louisiana! Let see what the future model runs look like to see if a trend is developing.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/...s!2008090412!!/


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Thu Sep 04 2008 03:51 PM
Re: 12Z European shows big westward shift..

A lot of the model runs this afternoon shifted west, which is still concerning. still a lot could happen between today and next week.

Evan Johnson
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 04 2008 04:16 PM
Re: 12Z European shows big westward shift..

as far as the models being run, shifting west, west meaning the track will move further west then north then northeast like GFDL's current track? im confused on this.

craigm
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Sep 04 2008 04:32 PM
Re: 12Z European shows big westward shift..

Does anyone know why they have taken the tropical forecast points off the overlay at SSD?

LoisCane
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Thu Sep 04 2008 04:57 PM
Re: 12Z European shows big westward shift..

That's a very sharp right turn. David like I suppose more than Floyd.

Have to see what it shows at 11pm but the new models are making people nervous and with good reason.

Wish I was confused.... not liking what I am seeing but there is plenty of time for things to change so keep watching.

Rarely do you get to see a storm this beautiful out in the ocean spin, hope he spins down before land.


SeaMule
(Weather Hobbyist)
Thu Sep 04 2008 04:58 PM
eye wall EXPANDING

Well, we've been thinking this might be a little buzz-saw like Andrew. However, the eyewall in the last few hours has really gotten much larger...probably 10-12 miles....and in addition...it's a perfect circle. I think Ike is merely getting larger...and it's expanding eyewall might be the reason for a somewhat slower wind speed.

I don't like the looks of this at all......Look for additional strengthening....a cat 5 is down the road...imho


Evan Johnson
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 04 2008 05:10 PM
Re: 12Z European shows big westward shift..

the 5pm update of ike offers no assurance to south florida residents. the computer models are tight and its moved west, as projected by users on here. all i can say is i had a bad hunch. we should start to feel effects sunday night as the local weathermen said.

MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Thu Sep 04 2008 05:35 PM
Re: 12Z European shows big westward shift..

Eric Blake wrote a pretty good discussion in the 5PM update, noticing the shift westward too, some even going as far south as into Cuba. This is all possible still. I don't envy this forecast, though, it's really difficult to start throwing the cone of a major hurricane toward land.

Eric was one of the first people to get Hurricane advisories up on the internet (ATWC.org) -- or at least an organized way-- so I'm probably a little biased in his favor. He's also a very good forecaster, and one of the younger ones there.


Lee-Delray
(Weather Master)
Thu Sep 04 2008 05:40 PM
Re: 12Z European shows big westward shift..

Miami across Florida into the Gulf or south to Cuba and into the Gulf; both bad scenerios but looking more probable. Since the models are trending more that way we'll have to see.

What are the chances of Ike getting bigger? Right now the hurricane winds only go out 45 miles?


JMII
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 04 2008 06:07 PM
Re: 12Z European shows big westward shift..

Quote:

we should start to feel effects sunday night as the local weathermen said.




When the storm is forecast to be SE of the Bahamas? I don't think so... other then ocean swells and rip currents Ike's effects on South FL will not arrive until late Mon/early Tues based on the current forecast. Check any of various wind field products to confirm this. Given Ike's small nature it might be well into Tues before we feel TS level winds. Once again this is based on the current forecast, storm size & intensity which we all know could change.

The grouping of the models towards S FL is not good, however I noticed in addition to shifting west a few shifted to the south putting Ike down into Cuba. The front moving thru the central US doesn't look like its digging very deep so I'm not buying the southerly track or a recurve out to sea solutions just yet. The good news is that Hanna left some cooler water behind that Ike must go thru, thus some weaken before landfall should occur.


Bev
(Weather Hobbyist)
Thu Sep 04 2008 06:17 PM
Historical note about Ike

I just looked at all historical tracks from 1920 to the present for all Cat 4&5 hurricanes in the Atlantic that eventually made on the southeast US coast (not necessarily at those strengths).

The good news is that according to the historical data at the ibis site, no Cat 4/5 hurricane has ever been as far north as Ike is at this point and managed to make landfall in Fla, GA, SC, or NC. The bad news is that hurricanes will continue to make history, so there's always a first.

Isabel came very close to being as far north as Ike. And both Dora and Andrew, were both as far north as Ike, where he is predicted to be tomorrow. They both swung up from the south toward the north and continued further north while Ike is predicted to be pushed well south of their tracks. But Ike will be the farthest north at this longitude if he makes landfall. Interesting!


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Thu Sep 04 2008 07:01 PM
Re: 12Z European shows big westward shift..

Quote:

The good news is that Hanna left some cooler water behind that Ike must go thru, thus some weaken before landfall should occur.




over 2F drop in a little over 12 hours on the east Bahamas buoy that Hannah passed by within 125 miles:
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41046


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Thu Sep 04 2008 07:05 PM
Re: 12Z European shows big westward shift..

Locally (just north of the Cape up to New Smyrna Beach) in the first 4 days of September I've measured surf wt's from 80-83F (Today was 83).

MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Thu Sep 04 2008 07:33 PM
Re: 12Z European shows big westward shift..

Another model trend I'm noticing is that Ike may slow down a lot as it approaches Florida. The thought of a major slowing down near or on the coast of Florida after Fay is not one I want to see, so we'll forget that for now. It's not all likely,


Either it could slam into Cuba (Like the GFDL and HRWF show tonight) or head just north and enter the Gulf, Get near or over florida (If it gets near the "ooh it may turn" Floyd-esque event may happen, better for Florida, worse for points North. Or it could just flat out slow down and slowly crawl over Florida into the Gulf (If the trough gets weaker, this is possible), but unlike Fay, as a much stronger storm.

And what I hope happens, it could go out to sea, but with the trends today, that looks less likely right now unfortunately.

Still the probabilities for any of the above actually happening are pretty low, and I'm not going to guess outside of tossing these up. It may wind up doing something crazy like diving south too.

There's the model round up tonight.


OrlandoDan
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Sep 04 2008 07:33 PM
Re: 12Z European shows big westward shift..

Looks to me, with the latest satelite image and loop, that Ike has started to make his turn to the southwest.


LoisCane
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Thu Sep 04 2008 07:38 PM
Re: 12Z European shows big westward shift..

looks west to me... don't see any southern component personally

but moving back and forth so fast between links I'm getting dizzy

models aren't making me happy

i'll check again when i get back from the store.. if there is any food left


OrlandoDan
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Sep 04 2008 07:51 PM
Re: 12Z European shows big westward shift..

Notice the flattening that is ocurring on the Water Vapor loop on the northeast quadrant. My eyes may be tricking me, but I see a turn with a southerly component is happening or just about to happen. I may be wrong and I will stand corrected if so.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Thu Sep 04 2008 08:13 PM
Re: 12Z European shows big westward shift..

I agree with Dan...I don't quite see the southern component yet, but I do see the Northerly component is gone and the flattening on the NE side of the storm.

The other thing is, if the SW turn does start this soon, it is before the forecast to do so and will keep Ike from going over Hanna's waters for a couple of extra days and I think by then that the waters won't be nearly as cool as they could be.


jessiej
(Weather Watcher)
Thu Sep 04 2008 08:30 PM
Re: 12Z European shows big westward shift..

Here's a link to the European model. It is showing Ike going thru Western Cuba and making landfall in the Central Gulf.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/...8090412!!!step/


Wxwatcher2
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Sep 04 2008 08:38 PM
Re: 12Z European shows big westward shift..

How has that european model performed in the past? Ike is the first storm of the season that has caused me any real concern. Ike looks to be trouble for Florida. Anyone guessing how the models are going to tend on this one in a day or so? Right now, it looks like Florida better take notice.

Storm Cooper
(Moderator)
Thu Sep 04 2008 08:51 PM
Re: 12Z European shows big westward shift..

The ECMWF has preformed rather well this season. I have myself favored it for the past 3 years or so and this season it has pretty much run the FSU Super off the road (what I am told), I don't see the FSU stuff... Read the NHC products and just be prepared. The NHC is the very best at what they do, and the Official ones to do it.

craigm
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Sep 04 2008 08:52 PM
Re: 12Z European shows big westward shift..

I'm starting to get that deer in the headlights feeling. Every site I vist has the same tone. We need to collectively stay calm. This is why I would rather live in a hurricane prone area than a tornado active area. We still have time to watch and prepare. The cone of possible center locations at 120 hrs is huge. The problem I am having is the improvement in track accuracy over the years. We have already started having conversations about moving critical documents from our construction trailer, if the current senario pans out it certainly won't survive. Looking at synoptics right now the pattern seems to me to be far less complicated compared with Hanna's movement. The main influence on IKE is the strength of the ridge building (which the models seem to have a handle on) as compared with the variety of issues Hanna has faced - outflow from Gustav, strong shear from ULL to the North, weak steering currents.
We are looking at a strong storm projected to be in our back yard in a few days and everyone needs to stay prepared. From Cuba to the Carolinas and the Gulf coast down the road if IKE decides on that route.


OrlandoDan
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Sep 04 2008 09:05 PM
Re: 12Z European shows big westward shift..

My prediction is that Ike will be just south of the projected path at 0600 UTC.

Evan Johnson
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 04 2008 09:23 PM
Re: 12Z European shows big westward shift..

i couldnt agree more. im starting to get the opinion that if ike hits florida isnt as important as where in florida will ike make landfall. for us floridians thats what we should be working on at this moment. a general opinion that it is going to hit has been formed. lets try to figure out where now, it will make landfall within the next couple of days and help everyone prepare.

ltpat228
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Sep 04 2008 09:36 PM
Re: 12Z European shows big westward shift..

For the heck of it, even realizing it's a bit too early, I looked at my County's EOC page and below is what I saw!

It's called Hurrtrak Advanced and shows the probabilities of Ike hitting my area. It's in .pdf format and am not sure if it will show on my post an an attachment.
Well I am sorry as I'm trying to include it as .pdf and apparently that won't work on this site.

I live in Saint Lucie County, Florida with major towns of Port Saint Lucie and Fort Pierce; and am about 40 minutes north of West Palm Beach.

Okay, I was at least able to provide the link for my EOC's probability map. And on my end when I click on to the highlighted "Ike" word, it then takes me to the .pdf graph of which days will have what kind of wind in my area. Hopefully you can view this, too.

http://www.stlucieco.gov/eoc/storm_map.htm


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Thu Sep 04 2008 09:53 PM
Re: 12Z European shows big westward shift..

And as everyone can see from that last post....Ike has just as much a chance of going south and hitting cuba as it does of hitting Florida! Keep watching, but don't freak out yet....

JMII
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 04 2008 10:01 PM
Re: 12Z European shows big westward shift..

Ike has been moving due west from what I can tell, he looks to be just south of the NHC's next forecast point by about the width of his inner core (eye wall diameter). As noted by others the NE quad is feeling the push already, so a WSW motion should begin as forecast, just slightly eariler. It will be interesting to see if the NHC shifts the cone slightly south to compensate. And if that's the case then UKMET & GFS are both wrong already, however this far out such a small tweaks means very little. The only good thing about such a well formed hurricane is the eye is clearly defined thus tracking any movement is much easier.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Thu Sep 04 2008 10:09 PM
Re: 12Z European shows big westward shift..

what is sctsvb saying about all of this with ike? does he have a special website that we can get on his consensus? any input is greatly appreciated.. thanks all

Register then PM him your questions.


St_Petersburg_Layman
(Registered User)
Thu Sep 04 2008 10:31 PM
Re: 12Z European shows big westward shift..

I have lurked on this website for a few years and really appreciate all the information from the laymen to the mets. First time I have ever felt the need to post so here it goes. A couple of days ago the trend in the models started showing the southerly component with a northwesterly movement into FL. My fear at that time was that the trend would continue and actually move further west. The recent GFDL has Ike slamming Cuba then turning north and then northeasterly towards the FL gulf coast. The recent HWRF has Ike running through the striaghts and then making the same northern and then northeastern turn. I hope this does not turn out to be another trend but I fear it may be. St. Pete/Clearwater/Tampa would be destroyed by a storm on that path and strength.

Once again, thanks for all the information and I look forward to learning more.


LoisCane
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Thu Sep 04 2008 10:38 PM
Re: 12Z European shows big westward shift..

Very good point, the eye is so wide open currently he is easy to follow.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200809_model.html

and yeah.. just a drop perhaps of the forecast point..which is no big deal but they have been hitting the points perfectly, not happy its to the south of it... or close to south of it. See how the next few frames come in.

ships model brings it way too close to miami/fll

yeah, when the little kids are tracking, watching and everyone is talking there is a fatalistic feel about this, especially because the NHC was sooo good with Gustav's track from far out


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Thu Sep 04 2008 10:42 PM
Re: 12Z European shows big westward shift..

my children's babysitter, a 3rd generation resident of east central florida, always mentions the july 1926 hurricane (came up the east coast from south florida, nearly wiped the then thriving town of scottsmoor in north brevard county off the map) when talking about hurricanes. some of the tracks so far this year look similar to that busy year for florida:
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/82/1926_Atlantic_hurricane_season_map.png


LoisCane
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Thu Sep 04 2008 10:52 PM
Re: 12Z European shows big westward shift..

Yup. Good observation.

Cat 4s everywhere. Cuba, Florida and the Bahamas slammed. Not many years like 26.. thankfully.

Strong high that year and this year.

right now the 11pm has the hurricane over Miami Tuesday night..


vineyardsaker
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 04 2008 11:15 PM
Re: 12Z European shows big westward shift..

I can't believe that after spending three days under Faye, and dodging the Hanna bullet Florida is now smack in the middle of the 5 day cone for a major hurricane. With the exception of the LBAR which has Ike going southwest, all the other models seem to agree that this time Florida is going to get it.

I guess that there still is a chance we might be spared. The NHC 11PM advisory says: THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN TWO DISTINCT BRANCHES...THE GFS...NOGAPS...AND UKMET SHOW THE TURN OCCURRING OVER THE BAHAMAS....WHILE THE HWRF...GFDL...AND ECMWF TAKE IKE OVER CUBA OR THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. UNTIL IT BECOME CLEAR AS TO WHICH ONE OF THESE SOLUTIONS WILL PREVAIL... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS BETWEEN THEM. But I still have a bad feeling about this one....


Lamar-Plant City
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Sep 05 2008 12:30 AM
Re: 12Z European shows big westward shift..

All in Florida need to be on the watch for this one....it is giving me a sinking feeling (don't know how to quantify that....a tropical depression). this is one case where I hope the models are NOT as accurate as they were with Gustav. They pegged him hitting central Gulf Coast quite a distance out. As a side note, has anyone noticed the new satellite enhancements that the NHC has included on it's satellite page. We now get Funktop, RGB, rainbow....just a couple of things they never had on that page before. nice of them. OH and that 1926 comparison is scary. My dad always recounted he stories HIS dad told of that hurricane (I am 3rd gen floridian) and how he was part of gangs of men who had to bury the drowned out in what they call "the Glades' around Lake Okeechobee......That whole plot map looks eerily like many of this year's storms. One going across the south end from southeast like Fay, one into Louisiana, couple curling to the east and one that looks suspiciously like what Ike is projected to do. OK...time to test the generator!! Buckle up everyone.....going to be an interesting weekend....and I am NOT talking about football!

LoisCane
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Fri Sep 05 2008 01:02 AM
Re: 12Z European shows big westward shift..

Yeah, oh what stories that generation had to tell on the 26 Cane. Yet, they didn't understand hurricanes and always referred to it as the First Storm and the Second Storm in articles. Except real old timers. My great-great-grandparents lived in the Keys, KW... my grandmother was only afraid of Cape Verde storms.. for a good reason. Though they were in Miami by 26 and 35.

Ike has spikes on all sides, bands.. long ones more visible tonight than last night. And, its raining lightly in Miami tonight from Hanna.

See what the models show next... good luck. Heard Jim Cantore talking tonight about the GOM scenario, caught my attention...


hurricane expert
(Really Not an Expert)
Fri Sep 05 2008 01:20 AM
Re: 12Z European shows big westward shift..

This storm is still five days out but i was also comparing a possibility track that ike might take similar to what hurricane donna once did in 1960. The possibility is there

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Donna_1960_track.png


Bev
(Weather Hobbyist)
Fri Sep 05 2008 01:42 AM
Re: 12Z European shows big westward shift..

The great Okeechobee Hurricane hit in 1928, killing 2500+ when the dike around the lake failed. The "new" dike is now 70 years old and local news reports from the area are that the army corps of engineers started releasing water from the lake today despite a two year record level drought to "relieve the stress on the 70 year old structure". Faye replenished the lake to normal levels, but apparently they are preparing for a "just in case" scenario.

I too, have heard the stories first hand about that disaster. My grandmother worked for a doctor in Clewiston when it struck. They tagged for a few days, but finally gave up and had large funeral pyres. Incredible to think that wasn't so long ago. She's still living to tell about it.

Okeechobee to Begin Pulse Releases
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/local/palmbeach/sfl-0903lakeo,0,6765361.story

1928 Okeechobee Hurricane track (it was quite a bit further south at this point than Ike is now)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:1928_Okeechobee_hurricane_track.png


berrywr
(Weather Analyst)
Fri Sep 05 2008 01:48 AM
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot

Very good points! And you're right; major hurricanes tend to create and/or modify the environments which they're in. For the moment Ike is a small hurricane, and is likely to be weakened by the shear which is now inhibiting outflow on it's north and west sides. As I mentioned a couple of days ago, Hanna spent a vacation down in the Turks and cooler SSTs should be a given, and God knows after this season why anybody in their right mind would live down there to start with; talk about a few islands with bullseyes painted on them! There are 3 models in the Florida Straits camp and 3 models in the Bahamas camp, and with each successive run the official forecast has been nudged west. Recent satellite loops show Ike now moving just south of due west. There simply isn't enough data at Day 4 plus to know where Ike is going other than there will be a COL between the mid continental ridge and bermuda ridge and Florida and the Florida panhandle in the middle and a shortwave/longwave trough axis to the north. Ike is no doubt certainly to slow down given this type of an environment and time and time again NHC has their track guidance down and I see no reason to question otherwise. Once again, good points! Y'all take care!

Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Fri Sep 05 2008 01:56 AM
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot

agree with ya Bill... from what i am seeing in the model data... by the time Ike gets to the south Florida/Cuba area... steering currents will be weak AGAIN... i'm kinda curious how far west ike will get before he begins his turn north. was thinking it was going to be around the east coast of Florida, but now with the next ridge to set up middle next week may have other plans.... and with a weak trough dropping down to the SE US and swinging by.... GOING to be an interesting weakend for sure! Interesting 00Z GFS tonight

scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Fri Sep 05 2008 02:59 AM
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot

Its too early to know forsure, but right now its looking like a good threat to the Florida Keys. This is just south of the GFS but north of the GFDL. The eastern cone looks like Paradise island Bahamas-Freeport Bahamas-Just off the east coast along 80W. The center cone takes it to near or just west of Andros Island-Central and Northern Keys and up the Florida Peninsula. The western outline is now interacting with Cuba-west of Key West- off the west coast of Florida- Towards Biloxi and east to the Florida Panhandle.
This isnt a forecast, just speculation and Ill make my first offical forecast later on Saturday since then it will be 3 days away from a possible landfall. We have plenty of time. We need to see more Data go into the models, which model is running best (GFDL or GFS or Compromise them), also the pattern over the continental U.S. for early next week. If this interacts with Cuba, it will be much weaker and may move more west into the extreme NW carribean (ala GFDL) or the ridge may not be as orientated in the NE-SW and be more E-W and keep IKE more westerly towards Andros Island by late Sunday.


native
(Weather Guru)
Fri Sep 05 2008 06:26 AM
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot

Great, just great. I woke up at 5am on the money to sound of dripping.

I have a small leak in my roof apparently. It has filled the cooler I've placed underneath it up one inch since that time. And it's only coming down in two places one drop at a time...although one right after the other. BOO!

I hope this rain lets up later today so that I can make a run to Home Depot for a few gallons of tar.

Just an FYI....my neighbor came home last night all excited that Home Depot had the metal shutter panels on sale for 60% off. I think maybe I'll get some shutters. Hopefully I won't need them for Ike but atleast I'll have them. Those shutters are the only thing missing from my hurricane preparedness "kit".


OrlandoDan
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Sep 05 2008 06:35 AM
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot

My short term prediction: Like last night, Ike will again be south of the next forecast point, which is 18UTC, This will cause another adjustment to the longer term forecast track to the south. As for the longer term track, it is still up in the air. There are not as many variables in play as was with Hanna and Fay, but it is still to early to tell. All eyes on both coasts of Florida should be watching this guy over the weekend.

Patrick99
(Registered User)
Fri Sep 05 2008 07:38 AM
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot

Wow, this is going to be a close call here in Miami. It would seem that no matter what happens, we are going to get *something*; it's just a question of degrees. The possibility of a 3-4 on a 1926 type track isn't something I really want to contemplate, with my family in the Gables.

craigm
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Sep 05 2008 08:33 AM
Attachment
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot

To all FYI an excerpt from the HPC this morning also attached latest micro pass from around 8:27 AM EDT. IKE is actually showing very strong stucture at the surface on the North side. You can clearly make out the eye below the dense overcast.
PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
441 AM EDT FRI SEP 05 2008

VALID 12Z TUE SEP 09 2008 - 12Z FRI SEP 12 2008

MAJOR HURRICANE IKE IS THE MAIN WEATHER STORY DURING THE MEDIUM
RANGE WEATHER FORECAST PERIOD...WITH AN EXPECTED TRACK THROUGH THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE SOUTHEAST AS IT MOVES THROUGH AN
ANTICIPATED BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE TRACK USED WAS
MODIFIED TO THE SOUTHWEST FROM CONTINUITY DUE TO DISCREPANCIES
BETWEEN THE ONGOING TPC TRACK AND ONGOING MEDIUM RANGE CONTINUITY.
THIS WILL BE DISCUSSED AGAIN WITH NHC AGAIN AT 16Z...IN TIME FOR
THE AFTERNOON PRESSURES ISSUANCE.


doug
(Weather Analyst)
Fri Sep 05 2008 08:37 AM
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot

Current trend on IKE is that it is actually south of the forecast track right now.
That will tend toward a general south and west shift in the cone, but the east side of the cone will still be off shore, IMO. That is because the weakness in between the two high pressure systems steering the system may be relativly more pronounced, especially if Hanna gains strenght today and goes into Cat 1 status for a while. Hanna is performing beyond expectations from yesterday's appearance and the LLC has tucked in beneath the convection, and it looks decidedly tropical rather than extra tropiclal as it was described yesterday, so there is a chance the weakness will be pronounced enough to keep IKE off any land. However, if IKE does not slow down and stays south of the current track the odds on an off. shore solution go down. I ageree with Scott that it will be Saturday p.m. to get any confidence.
One more thing on the confidence...NHC uses all the models and has consensus models...once they lock into the concensus that track is usually pretty tight, especially for 72 hours. I have also noted NHC track is not ever too far from the HRWF or GFS in reaching the concensus.


JMII
(Weather Guru)
Fri Sep 05 2008 09:24 AM
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot

Agree with the others, Ike is further south of his forecast position so we should see another shift of the cone, the models are trending south as well.

Now once he reaches the islands he'll be in an area of weak steering currents and as we've seen with Fay and Hanna this could cause problems. However if he continues to track south he might hit Cuba sparing us in FL from hurricane force winds. The only thing that worries me is a NW turn will occur at some point... so we're back to the timing issue: a sooner turn brings him into Palm Beach, a later turn puts him into the middle Keys, an even later turn and this becomes a GOM storm! Just keep in mind since he is small storm there would major differences in the effects your local city would feel depending on the local of final landfall.

Currently Ike is an area of some NNW shear so figure on drop down to Cat 2 status and more southerly track today. And as stated before: Monday seems to be the key day to figure out if Ike will effect Florida or not.


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Sep 05 2008 09:37 AM
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot

Hannah a little over 100 miles due east of my location this morning:
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=MLB&loop=yes
I'm observing intermittent moderate to occassionally heavy rain with a steady NNW wind of 18 mph, gusting to 30 in the heavier "squalls". Measured nearly 1" of rain since 5 am this morning, not good for the ongoing flooding in the St. Johns River basin near SR 46/Lake Harney area.


LoisCane
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Fri Sep 05 2008 09:38 AM
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot

Messy models all in all. Tampa isn't out of it.. no can't say that, neither is the whole Gulf. Really does seem a Florida storm one way or the other.. either a direct hit or we get caught in the northern part of the storm and get a lot of wind and rain.

By the way, Collins Avenue in Miami was flooded driving to work today from non-stop rain from Hanna. This isn't a location comment on my weather as much as a concern that Miami and parts of Florida may not have time to dry out before the rains from Ike hit this region. A real 1 2 3 punch round here it seems.

So... beginning to buy into the bigger dip and the slow sharp NW movement later. Rather not be directly hit by a Cat 3 or 4 but a real possibilty.

Hanna seems to be taking the west side of her cone I think from watching radar imagery not just sat and Ike is a drop south I think which portends a more SW movement I think earlier rather than later but for how long? Maybe her weather mass is more to the left but either way her weather is what's going to cause a mess up and down the Eastern Seaboard.

Where is the trough? It's weak now.. I don't see the real steering mechanism that can lift Ike before landfall or crawl down through the Straits.

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_us_loop-12.html

Show me the front that is going to take Ike away before Florida.. I don't see it.

Watching NHC and waiting for their 11 AM ..


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Sep 05 2008 09:44 AM
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot

sorry for my last post in this lounge- it should've been in the Hannah conditions section. (got caught up in the moment with heavy rain falling)

PensacolaWX
(Registered User)
Fri Sep 05 2008 10:00 AM
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot

Well it looks like Ike is already on a WSW track ahead of schedule while looking at the latest satellite passes and will pass well south of the forecasted track. For us gulf coast residents, I don't like that fuzzy feeling I get when it looks like a storm will make it into the Gulf. I hate to wish another beating on the people of Cuba, but it should rip the storm apart if it interacts with Cuba from East to West.

But the latest GFDL model keeps Ike a Cat 2 all the way over a long trek over Cuba. How is that possible???


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Sep 05 2008 10:00 AM
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot

Hi Folks,
I've been watching this forum for two days now. Hurricane Ike is starting to cause some stress for me and my wife. We live in Tampa FL and are also scheduled to go on a Cruise to the Bahamas on Thursday the 11th. At this point I am hoping this storm misses FL all together but obviously its too early to know for sure. I'd like to pose a question to the experts here. If Ike does come to FL would the thought be more that it's an eastern or western coast threat ?

Thanks


LoisCane
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Fri Sep 05 2008 10:08 AM
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot

Ike is way south of the tropical forecasted points right now.. can't wait to see the 11 am.

Check out the wv loop, really about to be pushed sw i think... or wsw


Evan Johnson
(Weather Guru)
Fri Sep 05 2008 10:31 AM
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot

they projected a wsw movement in the forecast path then projected it to level out to the west then turn a bit. i have had goes e infared running for the past 24 hours. i see the slightest south movement. i dont see anything remarkable though. the 11am will help us.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Sep 05 2008 10:54 AM
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot

The 11 am is out...as suggested, Ike is moving south of the projected path at about 260 degrees. Also to be noted, although sheer is supposed to affect Ike for the next 24 hours, it should taper off after that. Also, on the path Ike is projected to take now, the Forecast Discussion from the NHC has stated specifically that the waters are warm and they do not see remnants of cooler water from Hanna being in the area previously.

I'm starting to think the ECMWF model that takes Ike into the same area as Gus is going to be the more accurate model.


Evan Johnson
(Weather Guru)
Fri Sep 05 2008 10:55 AM
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot

the 11am came out, it is further south. this is a bit comforting. however models are kinda still all over the place. so for a breif moment, south east florida can breathe a bit until we further updates.

mcgowanmc
(Weather Hobbyist)
Fri Sep 05 2008 01:43 PM
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot

Quote:

the 11am came out, it is further south. this is a bit comforting. however models are kinda still all over the place. so for a breif moment, south east florida can breathe a bit until we further updates.




Less for you, more for the GOM.

A CAT 3 hitting Mobile to Panama would pull every power truck out of Louisiana.

And don't expect any help from anywhere else because of Hanna.

And Florida gets it's gas from NOLA.


MichaelA
(Weather Analyst)
Fri Sep 05 2008 01:44 PM
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot

I'm not relaxing a bit. Given the high degree of accuracy of the NHC's track forecasts over the last few years, everyone in FL should be watching Ike and be in pre-prep mode. The next few days will tell more definitely where and how strong Ike will be. Personally? I don't like what my gut is telling me on this one.

okihabu
(Verified CFHC User)
Fri Sep 05 2008 02:00 PM
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot

I hope you are right Mike, I am hoping for the best for our area. I have a poultry farm I own and movin all these animals wont be easy. I just would like to knoe the odds of Ike hittin the west coast of Fl. and the Tampa area? I can see what NHC says about the path. But my concern is how fast he moves west before going north. I dont see anything slowing him down.besides this year is starting to remind me of 2004. My sister-in-law is still po'd at me for charley. Same name and on my birhtday, went to orlando and and well you know the rest. So I would like to know some odds on him.

native
(Weather Guru)
Fri Sep 05 2008 02:05 PM
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot

Well...we've got a 2:00 update to the advisory:

000
WTNT64 KNHC 051748
TCUAT4
HURRICANE IKE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
200 PM AST FRI SEP 05 2008


AT 2 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE
ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED
ISLANDS...AS WELL AS FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.


NO OTHER CHANGES ARE REQUIRED FROM THE 1100 AM ADVISORY.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BEVEN


We should now start getting 3 hourly fixes soon.


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Sep 05 2008 02:15 PM
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot

looking at the updated model runs from skeetobiteweather, there is only one model that has Ike hitting the East side of Florida now...the consensus model is moving much more towards the Western GOM. I think there will be a fairly significant change in the NHC model at the 5pm EDT advisory.

hurricane expert
(Really Not an Expert)
Fri Sep 05 2008 02:20 PM
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot

I just dont see how this storm would even get to the middle of the gulf of mexico starting on the early parts of next week as a trough of low pressure is going to come from the west and ike is going to start to feel the weakening in the high pressure at about maybe 80 west or so ??? maybe it well make it into the gulf at about 83 west is the farthest i say but most of the models have a turn going on. i live in orlando wftv channel 9 meteorologist said its going to have to make a turn at some point but wasnt sure where it would happened I hate to say it but it definitely looks like a florida storm !

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Sep 05 2008 02:27 PM
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot

Someone posted this link back on page 2 of this thread...

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/...s!2008090500!!/

That is the best way I have seen Ike's track explained so far. It really gives you a birds eye view of all of the different pressure centers and other activity that will be affecting Ike's track and why he will make it into the GOM.


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Sep 05 2008 02:50 PM
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot

check out the latest gfdl model it has it more of a bend to the state of florida and as for the hwrf model its doing the same i'm not surprise to see this at all either like i said earlier.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/


Evan Johnson
(Weather Guru)
Fri Sep 05 2008 03:07 PM
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot

i still can not believe its still going west. they projected the south movement so much sooner then today. to be honest im not sure anymore on the path. i think the 5pm will help us out alot. i think we are having a hard time working with this storm simply because of the update schedule. shortly they should throw warnings up and which case that will help us as far as getting that update every 3 hours. right now its hard to tell though because we dont have much to work with. the storms moving so quickly and we dont have updates till every 6 hours on the clock. i just find it incredible that yesterday at 11am they had it nailing broward county and now they got it plowing over the keys.

hurricane expert
(Really Not an Expert)
Fri Sep 05 2008 03:10 PM
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot

The latest gfs model also recurves the storm into florida by the time it gets into the gulf pretty scary stuff there !!!

Evan Johnson
(Weather Guru)
Fri Sep 05 2008 03:53 PM
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot

has anyone else happen to notice the SFWMD has updated their plots and a lot of them have now made changes to the north? just earlier they were all agreeing for the most part on that southward track.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Sep 05 2008 04:53 PM
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot

5pm is out....first recon info in, basically confirmed the projected strength, track is now at 255 degrees. NHC again shifted their track south and suggested further shifting south or west may be needed in the next day or so. There is still a clear split between those models who see a weakening in the ridge that would allow for the NNW turn just West of Florida, and those models that see the ridge holding stronger and forcing Ike to the West/Central GOM. We probably wont' know if the weakness will be there until Late Saturday or Early Sunday as Ike approaches the Turks and Caicos.

Chris Bryant
(Verified CFHC User)
Fri Sep 05 2008 05:16 PM
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot

A question about the ridge steering Ike- when it turns to the North, is it likely to turn North *and* East, or simply trend NWish?
I really don't want to wishcast, but.... I really don't want to see the NOLA/S La. folks get another, worse hit (I have family in Baton Rouge).


tracerrx
(Registered User)
Fri Sep 05 2008 05:20 PM
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot

This maybe a newbie question, so please forgive.

How long until the Recon that was collected today from the hurricane hunter aircraft, is incorporated into the models? From my understanding, historically, the accuracy of the models is greatly improved after this information has been obtained.


docrod
(Weather Watcher)
Fri Sep 05 2008 05:32 PM
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot

Question please - does any out there have a link for storm surge models for the Florida Keys? Right now it looks like a right front quad hit for me. My house (oceanside - Key Colony Beach mm 51) survived Donna (1960 - three feet underwater) and slightly flooded in Georges. I'm taking a break from prep which I will finish tomorrow.

I know I can't do much about a flooding surge but more or less curiosity. - thanks in advance.


native
(Weather Guru)
Fri Sep 05 2008 05:37 PM
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot

Very frustrating. I'm still not sold on the more southerly track yet. I usually do not get sold one way or the other until MOST ALL the models come into some semblance of harmony. Right now, as it stands, we've got two different camps...so for right now, I'll split the difference between the two.

I still think that unfortunately, we'll have to wait until late tomorrow to really start "feelin' the love" with the models and forecasted track.

I'm going to wishcast here and go to bed tonight and wish/pray like heck that I'll wake up and somehow the shear will have eaten him alive and he's all gone! (I know, not likely but, a girl's gotta have a dream!)

Man, I hope the Keys start evacuating post haste. Like say 4am for visitors/tourists and Sunday A.M. for residents. I know it took us 7 hours just to get from Key West to Key Largo during Fay. We left at 9am on Sunday. Brutal.


Tazmanian93
(Weather Master)
Fri Sep 05 2008 05:39 PM
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot

Not sure if this is what you are looking for or not;

http://www.floridadisaster.org/publicmapping/index.htm


docrod
(Weather Watcher)
Fri Sep 05 2008 05:41 PM
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot

Quote:

Very frustrating. I'm still not sold on the more southerly track yet. I usually do not get sold one way or the other until MOST ALL the models come into some semblance of harmony. Right now, as it stands, we've got two different camps...so for right now, I'll split the difference between the two.

I still think that unfortunately, we'll have to wait until late tomorrow to really start "feelin' the love" with the models and forecasted track.

I'm going to wishcast here and go to bed tonight and wish/pray like heck that I'll wake up and somehow the shear will have eaten him alive and he's all gone! (I know, not likely but, a girl's gotta have a dream!)

Man, I hope the Keys start evacuating post haste. Like say 4am for visitors/tourists and Sunday A.M. for residents. I know it took us 7 hours just to get from Key West to Key Largo during Fay. We left at 9am on Sunday. Brutal.




Mandatory evac for visitors 9am Sat; for us conchs staged evac starting at 8am Sun; please don't clogged up the road for me please ... - take care.


KimKeyWest
(Registered User)
Fri Sep 05 2008 05:54 PM
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot

I think this is what you're looking for: http://redcross.tallytown.com/map/Surge-MonroeCounty.pdf

docrod
(Weather Watcher)
Fri Sep 05 2008 06:02 PM
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot

Quote:

Not sure if this is what you are looking for or not;

http://www.floridadisaster.org/publicmapping/index.htm




Hi - thanks - I've seen this page - I should have been clearer - sorry. There is a slosh model I believe that will forecast storm surge for specific storm events; there was something under development on a "tides" website (Fed gov site) about two years but I cannot find that link or if it has morphed into something else. At that time the link had experimental storm surge information on hypothetical storms. The link would be active then inactive.

Lacking this site and web page that I did see about two years ago; are there storm surge estimates well ahead of time or are they only available hours before the strike?

The second storm surge we had from Wilma was amazing and caught many of us in the Keys by surprise.

- thanks again - Rod


MichaelA
(Weather Analyst)
Fri Sep 05 2008 06:08 PM
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot

Most of the models end up with, at least, Ike paralleling the Gulf coast of FL. If that plays out, then a very large area of FL will be impacted. I still don't like what my gut is telling me. At any rate, if Ike enters the GOM, someone is going to suffer a major to severe hurricane. The models do cluster along the NHC forecast with a couple of outliers to the East and West. The GFDL, which has been fairly accurate, shows the course going south over Cuba and then up the FL Gulf coast which would lead to a weaker storm in the Gulf. The GFS shows Ike crossing South FL and then recurving to the NE into Tampa Bay. I have to keep pointing out that everyone in the cone needs to be on alert. This is an evolving situation and things could change radically on short notice. I'm going in to work tomorrow morning to unload an emergency truck load of hurricane supplies - my day off.

JMII
(Weather Guru)
Fri Sep 05 2008 06:25 PM
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot

Looking at the various water vapor loops you can see how the cone make prefect sense: ahead of Ike is a flow from the NE pushing him SW, then there is the flow (or wake) behind Hanna coming from up the SE over Cuba. You can clearly see the ridge building using the Eastern US view here: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/loop-wv.html Also visible is the front that squeezing Hanna and accelerating her N currently and will push her NE rapidly after landfall. This front doesn't look to be deep enough to push Ike back E if (or when) he reaches the Gulf unless he move much further N. In other words if he reaches the Gulf the track would be more towards the Panhandle then Ft. Myers/Tampa, but that is WAY too far down the road to determine at this time.

The current flow over FL is still SE but it seems the ridge is building in quicker thus the reason for Ike moving SW. My worry is the weakness over the southern Bahamas/NE Cuba that will give Ike a chance to sneak NW a bit sooner. The models favor the ridge building in strongly behind Hanna and thus keeping Ike south while he continues to marches west. This solution seems very likely to me so I'd say the NHC track looks good for now, just watch for Ike's position relative to the forecast solution come Monday - if he is N of his forecast position then South FL should be on alert. Regardless of his position the Keys have to be in full on prep mode by Monday since Ike will come close enough regardless of any track errors.

The good news is (like Andrew) so far Ike has a small hurricane force wind field (45 miles presently) so a track thru the lower Keys will only produce Cat 1/2 effects on the upper Keys, Dade county might only see sustained TS level winds and Broward would feel only TS gusts. Keep in mind these are just my uneducated quick estimates, PLEASE check the various wind field products issued by the NHC to see what to except once we are under a watch/warning situation.


ltpat228
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Sep 05 2008 06:27 PM
Re: Saint Lucie County EOC

Below is the link for Saint Lucie County, Florida's Emergency Operations Center.

I check it frequently and just noticed on their Situation Report link on their Quick Links menu that they are activating the EOC's Hurricane Information Hotline beginning 0800 Saturday, August 6th.


http://www.stlucieco.gov/eoc/situation_report.htm


doug
(Weather Analyst)
Fri Sep 05 2008 06:32 PM
Re: Current motion

IKE may have begun a more westerly motion, now that it is regaining structure. The eye is reappearing more centraly located in the midst of the dense overcast. The key is if that flow over the Bahamas becomes more zonal, E to W.

MichaelA
(Weather Analyst)
Fri Sep 05 2008 07:11 PM
Re: Current motion

It appears that the shear over Ike has begun to relax since the outflow on the north side is improving and the storm's overall structure is becoming symmetrical again. We should begin to see an eye redevelop soon. It still looks to me that the motion is slightly South of due West.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Sep 05 2008 07:21 PM
Re: Current motion

first time poster here. Love the site. Rookie wannabe weather chaser. Live on the coast of Pinellas county. Is this one I have to worry about or are we out of the woods with this thing?

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Sep 05 2008 07:25 PM
Re: Current motion

Hey Guys i live in miami....I just began to notice a west track from ike.....how will this affect the path and will the path more south or north

ps can u send me the link to the computermodels page.....cause i wanna see that too:)


MichaelA
(Weather Analyst)
Fri Sep 05 2008 07:27 PM
Re: Current motion

Re: Coastal Worried and finz

Be ready to get ready or evacuate. Hopefuly, Ike will stay away, but it is way too early to tell. Sunday and Monday will be the time that things will become more definite. I'd be making your plans now and be ready to execute them on relatively short notice.


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Sep 05 2008 07:29 PM
Re: Current motion

yea and to make it worse...I live on the beach(miami beach)....so yea.....Since ike is moving more west than wsw,will the path change?

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Sep 05 2008 07:33 PM
Re: Current motion

I've been in Pinellas county 20 years and the storms always seem to turn. Is Pinellas situated in such a manner that storms just don't come here for some geographic reason? Like it's hard for them to make the turn around the keys and then hit Pinellas???

MichaelA
(Weather Analyst)
Fri Sep 05 2008 07:42 PM
Re: Current motion

Nothing special, just lucky, Charley was supposed to come to the Tampa Bay region before he made that hard right turn. There have been much weaker systems which have come very close to the Tampa Bay area, though in recent times. If I'm correct, Hurricane Easy in 1950 was the last major hurricane to affect Tampa Bay. It came ashore just North of the region (worst case scenario for storm surge in Tampa Bay). In direct answer to your question, yes they can come here.

docrod
(Weather Watcher)
Fri Sep 05 2008 07:51 PM
Re: Current motion

Ike still has a south component to it's motion but yes - it's mostly west. Ike is about to enter those waters that Hanna stirred up for a few days. I'm beginning to think that the Keys are not going to get a "shield" from Cuba. We will soon know if Hanna has any effect. - take care

pcola
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Sep 05 2008 07:52 PM
Re: Current motion

looks like the 18Z gfdl takes Ike farther west into the Gulf with its eyes in the panhandle/mobile region...the gfs takes it in the same general direction but stalls it in the gulf and the heads it northeast, but the gfs seems to stall systems often after 4 days..did it with Gustav and fay, and the stalls never happened, the storms continued on the track

MichaelA
(Weather Analyst)
Fri Sep 05 2008 08:01 PM
Re: Current motion

Both seem to be trending farther south over or even south of Cuba. Still a major to extreme storm in the eastern Gulf is not good. The HWRF has also chimed in with a track over Cuba.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Sep 05 2008 08:10 PM
Re: Current motion

The advisory is late.....I have bad mojo about this storm

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Sep 05 2008 08:21 PM
Re: Current motion

It's out now...basically a carbon copy of the previous advisory...literally almost no change in anything.

watchinout
(Verified CFHC User)
Fri Sep 05 2008 08:51 PM
Re: Current motion

Been looking at models, tracks, and graphs and adding it together with what some of yall are saying and it looks like theres a possibility of Ike passing through the Florida Straits into the Gulf and making a curve into or near the Cedar Key area . Wondering what the rest of you think?

native
(Weather Guru)
Fri Sep 05 2008 08:53 PM
Re: Current motion

Just tuned in to TWC and met on duty now...said he would not be at all surprised to see in the 11pm udate the S component removed from Ike's current WSW movement. I also heard Dr. Steve Lyons on a little bit earlier...I really like him, no fuss no muss, just lays it out.

He kept mentioning the more westerly component and the whole timing thing...

All in all, what I personally took away from watching them both was that they don't seem completely sold (yet) on the models that forecast the extreme south track, south of cuba senario.

Far more worrisome for the Keys and South Fla. east and west and --d forbid the Gulg.

I'm still on the fence about putting up the shutters I just purchased in the pouring rain this morning....I"m really leaning towards....just put em' up. What's the worst that can happen? I (we) in SoEFla get spared and I get practice...I'll take it!


docrod
(Weather Watcher)
Fri Sep 05 2008 09:10 PM
Re: Current motion

Quote:

Been looking at models, tracks, and graphs and adding it together with what some of yall are saying and it looks like theres a possibility of Ike passing through the Florida Straits into the Gulf and making a curve into or near the Cedar Key area . Wondering what the rest of you think?




Way to early to say yet for you - you have time - just have materials in line and be ready. My final prep day is tomorrow morning but I'm in the FL Keys. But I have everything I need - for water, food, evac, gas, generator check, home concacts, .. etc .... just get prepared.


docrod
(Weather Watcher)
Fri Sep 05 2008 09:22 PM
Re: Current motion

Hi - haven't seen that one yet (updated HWRF) - we (I) depend so much on Cuba this time of year. - thanks

docrod
(Weather Watcher)
Fri Sep 05 2008 09:29 PM
Re: Current motion

Quote:

Hi - haven't seen that one yet (updated HWRF) - we (I) depend so much on Cuba this time of year. - thanks




Good grief, that is a HUGE change for me. I expect a long night and long Saturday. - again - thanks for pointing that out - Rod


GlenJohnson
(Weather Hobbyist)
Fri Sep 05 2008 10:40 PM
Re: Current motion

Cone is huge. What do you think the odds of it swinging North to Jacksonville are? I know it sounds silly, but everyone said Fay was heading out into the Gulf. Practically went over the top of my house. Luckily, it wasn't that strong, which is why I like living inland.

Lamar-Plant City
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Sep 05 2008 10:49 PM
Re: Current motion

Quote:

I'm still on the fence about putting up the shutters I just purchased in the pouring rain this morning....I"m really leaning towards....just put em' up. What's the worst that can happen? I (we) in SoEFla get spared and I get practice...I'll take it!




I put up the shutters for Charlie and he swung inland missing me....after I hacked my way to my parents partially destroyed house, it didn't bother me a bit that I had put up the shutters for nothing!! I think you have the right idea.....just put them up...time yourself so you know your window in the future and count your blessings if it was a complete waste of time!! If this thing gets to the key and still aimed at us in the cone...and is level 3/4, I will put mine up guaranteed. (I can do it in 2 hours!!!)


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Sep 05 2008 11:05 PM
Re: Current motion

Well things are looking much improved for all of you folks in Florida (not the keys, they are probably still going to get atleast some of Ike), but the latest advisory shifts the track south and west again. The forecast discussion says most of the reliable models take Ike down near or over the north coast of Cuba. The 4-5 day track has also shifted more westward to point more towards the central gulf, and the discussion says it could be moved more west again as we progress over the next day or two. The next recon flight is scheduled to get to Ike near 1 am CDT (2am EDT) , so that data will give us some more information.

scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Fri Sep 05 2008 11:45 PM
Re: Current motion

IKE's impact of anything north of Palm beach looks pretty slim to none right now, but things can change.The ridge is forecasted to be stronger and thats been the assumption by the ECMWF and GFDL, but now the GFS has come along with the UKmet. If this trend continues until Sats 12z run then its impact on Floridas east coast will be gone except the Keys.

Never underestimate the GFDL when a system is developed. Its accuracy rate is very high and was the only model just 24hrs ago that predicted a path near Cuba or into the NW Carribean. I wont make a projected landfall until Saturday. Right now my guess is that there is none in S Florida, except maybe the Keys. I Dont think the west coast of Florida will get much at all except down near Naples. Anyways things can change, but they are changing for a more and more west movement.


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Sep 05 2008 11:53 PM
Re: Current motion

local Tampa weatherguy had the following concern: IKE passes the Keys and then slows down and basically loses it's steering currents. At this point, speculation on his part, it could possibly get pulled by a trough to the North East, impacting the West Coast of Florida.....anybody see this playing out....

www.spaghettimodels.com

seems to show a lot of models making a sharp turn Northeast across west central florida???

Comments? Thoughts??


scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Fri Sep 05 2008 11:57 PM
Re: Current motion

right now that is speculation. There is a 10% chance it will do that and the same chance it will head towards Texas.He must of been looking at old models data from todays 12z earlier.

hurricane expert
(Really Not an Expert)
Sat Sep 06 2008 02:48 AM
Re: Current motion

These model have been moving all over the place from west then shifting back to east. By tomorrow night into sunday we will have a better handle on these models. This track is all going to depend on that trough of low pressure coming from the west. Will it weaken the ridge enough for ike to make a nw turn and then possible ne turn ? thats my first scenario for this storm. Or would the high stay in place and drive ike to the west all the way into the gulf ? thats my second scenario. Here the trough postion where it suppose to be by at least monday http://www.accuweather.com/maps-surface....c&fday=48hr So in a way i do think ike is going to feel a weakening in the high pressure and some one from the panhandle to the west coast of florida is going to get this storm. These are my early predictions. Land fall point still to early to tell

Evan Johnson
(Weather Guru)
Sat Sep 06 2008 07:59 AM
Re: Current motion

as of now, like the front page of the CFHC says. dont concentrate on that center line. when we are out of that cone i can worry less. and everyone who is talking about the two high preassure systems are correct. there is a slight moment of oppourtunity for ike to make a north turn early. however it is a race against the clock. if the 2 highs meet it will form a wall and the storm will continue west. if ike beats it before the 2 systems meet it will give ike all the chance it needs to make a right turn. lets just watch it today. warnings have been issued so we got our 3 hour updates

doug
(Weather Analyst)
Sat Sep 06 2008 08:05 AM
Re: Current motion

It looks as if good ole Hanna is actually effecting the depth of the high as it digs SW on its east side and how quickly the short wave coming from the west will erode the west side and how deep that will be. I guess the faster Hanna pulls NE will impact how deep the ridge will dig by tending to flatten it out the further north it goes. IKE is located just east of the apex of a very sharp point on that ridge, and the steering just west of that point is definitely wnw. As Hanna pulls out that should make the whole area a little more east to west. That could happen today before IKE actually impacts Cuba. My unskillful observations also suggest that the west side of the high will erode into the middle GOM as the trough approaches from the west. This poses a definite issue for recurvature as it increasingly seems IKE will bypass south Florida. But I am not comforted by that. I don't see IKE as a middle Gulf coast storm but more likely something east of the Mississippi River. This definitely has my attention in west central Florida as there is nothing more ominous than a strong storm being SW of our area with a probability of a future NE track.

ftlaudbob
(Storm Chaser)
Sat Sep 06 2008 08:06 AM
Re: Current motion

From the 8am update:
ALL INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE BAHAMAS...CUBA...SOUTH
FLORIDA...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE.



South Florida is still very much in the cone.Looks BETTER for us this morning,but as we all know there will be changes to the track and the models.He is still well to the south east of Florida.Given the wide cone,the NHC is not all that confident in it's forecast.


Ronn
(User)
Sat Sep 06 2008 08:09 AM
Re: Current motion

It is simply too early to tell where Ike may end up along the US Gulf Coast. Needless to say, ANY location from Florida to Texas is a possibility. The current NHC track brings Ike into the eastern GOM in four to five days. The margin of error for this time range is significant.

The forecast over the next few days will be complicated by Ike's interaction with Cuba. If Ike traverses the spine of Cuba for two days--as some models predict--then I can't imagine much of it surviving that journey. In this case, a severely weakened Ike would probably make it farther west than currently forecast. If Ike remains mostly over open water to the north or south of Cuba, then everything depends on the strength and orientation of the high pressure system to Ike's north. I'm inclined to believe that Ike will pass over, or to the south, of Cuba. The high pressure system over the western Atlantic really seems to be nudging Ike to the SW this morning.


Evan Johnson
(Weather Guru)
Sat Sep 06 2008 08:10 AM
Re: Current motion

look at the current GFS animated model. it has ike going into the gulf, then a pressure system moving in from the NW pushing ike back ene towards florida... interesting stuff here.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2008090606&field=850mb+Theta-E&hour=Animation


scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Sat Sep 06 2008 08:30 AM
Re: Current motion

As a Tampa resident, I dont think its coming to Tampa until it actually Does.! Tampa hasnt been hit directly since 1938 I think? I have to double check on that.I'm not saying this wont but like alot of people in the Tampa-Sarasota area, tooooo many times has the path a of hurricane suppose to track over you (within 24hrs) and the last minute it moves east of you or up to the panahandle. Of course everyone should prepare, but optimisum reigns supreme in this area.

The models shifted back some on the 6z run to the east and has a potential Florida impact on the west coast or the panhandle. Still thats 4-5days out. We need consistant runs. 12z are next and the question is, what will they do.

I'll give my 3 day forecast later today and sunday I'll make my landfall prediction unless its more than 3 days out.


Evan Johnson
(Weather Guru)
Sat Sep 06 2008 08:52 AM
Re: Current motion

exactly, models, and projected paths right now are sloppy at best. as others have said the nhc isnt entirely sure what the heck is going on at this moment. that is displayed by their cone of error. too many people put their trust in that line. and i dont blame you its the national hurricane center. but you know when they are unsure, and you should be as well.

as all of us here (or most of us here) all know being florida residents we must rely on the dreaded "multiple possibility scenario". following weather here is stressful and tenious at best. but we have all been through this drill with long range storms. 3 or 4 factors always come into play and the long range storms are never surefire. we have a frontal boundry here, we have a pressure system there, the cone can be highly unstable, so can the projected path. we should all be used to this by now.

due to the fact the nhc has clearly stated they are not sure of this path. i will continue to worry as if this storm will hit impact anywhere in the cone. too many factors come into play to be making hot shot projections and panicing people more than they already are.

i feel bad for the bahamas, but their hurricane warnings gives us a better idea for storm prep due to 3 hour updates.


jf
(Verified CFHC User)
Sat Sep 06 2008 08:52 AM
Re: Current motion

Ikes decent to the south south west is slowing and even though its speed has not slowed IKE will not reach the NHC plotted points at the 11AM update. If this trend continues the models will have a slight move to the east and maybe north. Every degree LON/LAT is critical to Florida. From the readings coming from the high pressure system to the north of IKE it seems as though there is a 50/50 chance of the high weakening just a little and allowing IKE to move more westerly before it decides whether to go into the Gulf to Cuba or Florida.

pcola
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Sep 06 2008 09:02 AM
Re: Current motion

west florida coast is absolutely in play, along with the whole gulf....again, imo, the nhc has done a good job withn the bigger storms, they stuck with their projection for 3 days with Gustav, while others said west towards the tex border and east towards mobile...their track record on the larger storms has been very good...the gfdl and gfs are keeping very close to the west coast of FL, but again, 4 days out....nobody knows

mcgowanmc
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Sep 06 2008 09:02 AM
Re: Current motion

Quote:

It looks as if good ole Hanna is actually effecting the depth of the high




Ike will slide along Cuba's coastline. If the eye is given a choice.

Gulfport to the Florabama Border as a Large Cat 3.
Hurricanes tend to avoid each other's "Ghost" track. Again, if given a choice. and West of NO won't be an option.

IMHO.
James


ftlaudbob
(Storm Chaser)
Sat Sep 06 2008 09:23 AM
Re: Current motion

24 hours ago many of the models had Ike coming into SF,24 hours later they have shifted south.24 hours from now who knows.He is still 3 1/2 to 4 days away.

Evan Johnson
(Weather Guru)
Sat Sep 06 2008 09:25 AM
Re: Current motion

if everyone will notice, the SFWMD models are loose again, and some of them are shifting north again. surprisignly the GFDL which is always preety reliable has it making a sharp northern turn grazing the west coast. is this northern trend something that everybody will follow as the day goes on? what do they know that we dont?

JMII
(Weather Guru)
Sat Sep 06 2008 09:30 AM
Re: Current motion

The models have under estimated the strength & position of the high to the north from the get go... thus with every update Ike moves south. As Hanna pulls out the ridge is filling in behind her very quickly, thus Ike's chance of reaching South FL becomes less and less with each passing hour. With such a small core a brush with Cuba would weaken him, but if his eye can stay just off the coast that will not occur. In addition tracking as far south as the NHC projects now the Keys might only get TS level winds due to the small wind field. Dade & Broward will feel almost the same effects we got from Hanna. The front sliding across the US from the west has gotten a bit deeper and pretty soon its going to be over FL which will close the door on Ike's window to turn NW over the state forcing him into the GOM. Once again just keep an eye of forecast position versus the NHC's projected path, it should very easy to see when (and if) Ike makes any unpredicted movement during the Monday time frame that changes the situation.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sat Sep 06 2008 10:03 AM
Re: Current motion

I have to agree completely with you JMII, every single forecast discussion has talked about how the track continues to shift west and south and may need to shift more that way in future tracks as well. NHC has been taking the northern and eastern side of the track consensus to be on the safe side for Florida and with Ike moving as far south as he has this morning and is continuing that way, I doubt that he will be able to pick up on the ridge weakness since Hanna is moving so quickly now. Hanna is pulling the ridge out with her and she will be gone before the weekend is over and Ike won't be near Cuba until Monday.

The other thing is, if you look at the models they all expect Ike's size to gain considerably over the next 2-3 days, so don't count the keys out of the stronger winds even if Ike does dip down right along Cuba.


weathernet
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Sep 06 2008 10:24 AM
Re: Current motion

Curiously, looking at the 12Z newer runs of the BAMD, am slightly confused as to the odd shift to the north from previous runs??? Am looking at steering flow levels, and although the overall strong mid-Atlantic ridge may be slowly retreating eastward with time, cannot see any reason for Ike to not basically travel west ( or perhaps slightly north of west ) while grazing the Cuban coast. Any thoughts on what the BAMD might be seeing with regards to any weakness? Will be curious to see if later 12Z runs of the EURO and UK equally adjust there tracks slightly more northward too, or simply maintain a steadfast westward motion well into the Gulf and well south of the lower Keys, as their previous model runs have indicated.

EBinTX
(Weather Watcher)
Sat Sep 06 2008 10:26 AM
Re: Current motion

I also agree - the sat tracks over the last three hours appear to be showing the center south of the forecast track. At 13:15 UTC the eye already looks to be south of the 18:00 forecast position. I would expect the next update to include another shift south of the near-term track guidance and possibly moving the track over Cuba out through near 72 hours. I can even see how this could end up on the south side of Cuba and then follow in Gus' recent path.

It's early but we northern GOM folks need to be watching this over the next few days.


Evan Johnson
(Weather Guru)
Sat Sep 06 2008 10:38 AM
Re: Current motion

actually, looking at the past 24 hours of GOES-E sat loops, it looks to be going WAY south of the forecast projections. this is odd i dont even think any the models called for this strong southward movement. heck, i wouldnt be surprised if next update they have this thing moving SW it almost looks like it on the IR.

EMS
(Verified CFHC User)
Sat Sep 06 2008 10:57 AM
Re: Current motion

Hard to see the center with the eye clouded over, but the last couple of frames on the visible satellite seem to indicate a due west movement. Could be just a wobble. If it's not, the threat to South Florida is potentially higher.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sat Sep 06 2008 10:58 AM
Re: Current motion

the 11am EDT is out...

...AND IKE IS NOW FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH OF THE COOLER WATERS
UPWELLED BY HANNA.

Along with this more southern track though comes more weakening from being either over, or near, Cuba. Although the gulf is expected to strengthen Ike back up quickly because of the warmth of the water. The track is set at 255 degrees still, so still WSW. The discussion again specifies how the models are distinctly split into two camps right now, one that believes the ridge over the SE will stay far enough north to keep Ike moving WNW, and the other that predicts Ike will turn north into the ridge...


Evan Johnson
(Weather Guru)
Sat Sep 06 2008 11:02 AM
Re: Current motion

well lets all review the current wind steering flow currents that are layered. this should help give us some sort of idea. if everyone will notice, the GFS that had ike going into the gulf and recurving, probably got it off of the futures of the wind currents, it shows a enviroment to produce that.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm1.GIF

everybody check it and lets discuss it.


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sat Sep 06 2008 11:18 AM
Re: Current motion

that's actually one of the things that makes the models so hard to get accurate...they are basically creating a model using model data, and if the model data is inaccurate, then the resulting model will be inaccurate also.

So basically the GFS is using the future model that was just posted, and that model is assuming that the ridge that Hanna is part of will be creating a northerly flow weakness in the high pressure over Florida. So this still fits into one of the two camps of scenarios that are possibilities at this point. Over the next 24 hours, as we see how quickly Hanna moves out and pulls the ridge with it, we will see if Ikes south movement takes it to far to follow this or not.


Ronn
(User)
Sat Sep 06 2008 11:32 AM
Re: Current motion

The BAMD is based on the upper level wind information provided by the GFS. So the northward shift of the 12z BAMD gives us a hint at the GFS's latest prediction for the upper level steering flow. The GFS, HWRF, GFDL, and NOGAPS now predict that the ridge north of Ike will be sufficiently weakened by the shortwave that will move through the eastern US to induce a more northwest to northward turn in a couple days. We'll have to wait and see if the models persist with this scenario, and if the others come aboard. If Ike is severely weakened by a long trip over Cuba, then the future path will still likely be farther west. Let's wait and see...

pcola
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Sep 06 2008 11:56 AM
Re: Current motion

exactly..both the gfdl and gfs were off by large margins 2 days out on Gustav, with the gfdl off by about 200 miles....

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sat Sep 06 2008 12:53 PM
Re: Current motion

it looks like to me that the high pressure is weakening and ike will possible make a more west north turn over florida.....Right now it looks like its moving about due west which will make it off course of the projected path....And the models have it going more north then the previous models.....what do you guys think

Bev
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Sep 06 2008 01:10 PM
Re: Current motion

Quote:

...
The forecast over the next few days will be complicated by Ike's interaction with Cuba. If Ike traverses the spine of Cuba for two days--as some models predict--then I can't imagine much of it surviving that journey. ...




There has been quite a bit of talk about relying on Cuba to weaken the storm. Common sense would lead us to believe this, the Mets like to talk of this, and to a minute degree it is true, Cuba can have some disruptive effects on a TS or Hurricane.

But all available data show the effect is transitory at best and non-existent at worst.. A storm's interaction with Cuba his little to no long term effect on its' strength at an eventual mainland strike.

If you study the historical data of every storm that ever traversed cuba, either along the spine, across the mountains, on a diagonal path, or just a glancing blow, only two in 90 years of historical data were actually weakened enough to be considered "shredded" and both of these were able to regain their pre-cuba strength.

1. Inez who bounced along Cuba's southern coast before making a diagonal crossing for four days at approx. 5mph. She was reduced from a Cat 3 to a Cat 1 after four days of interaction over Cuba's land mass. And even she managed to eventually strengthen to a Cat 4, although slowly.

2. Dennis was reduced from a Cat 4 to a Cat 1 within 24 hours of crossing Cuba. However, after exiting Cuba, within 24 hours his windspeed recovered to 145mph and Cat 4 status.

Many have managed to INCREASE intensity while crossing Cuba, see Frederick, Charley, Georges, Elena, King, Baker, Alma, Isbell, Hilda, #741 1948, #723 1946.

Most have managed to MAINTAIN intensity while crossing Cuba, see Lili, Cleo, Easy, #740 1948, #707 1944, #604 1933, #547 1926, #622 1935,

A few were weakened, but this was a temporary effect. ALL but Inez were able to regain their former strength within just 24 hours, most within 12 hours.

So the "Cuba Effect" while interesting, has had little to no ability to permanently reduce a hurricane's strength below it's pre-cuba status.

It is possible that Cuba has "saved" the mainland USA from a few strikes that might have been slightly stronger had they not interacted with Cuba, but that's conjecture. Historical data shows Cuba is a road bump, not a show stopper.

Note: I only studied storms that were Cat 3 and higher at any point during their development, not necessarily while near Cuba or at landfall. Their intensities near Cuba ranged from TD to Cat 4.


Bev
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Sep 06 2008 01:26 PM
Re: Current motion

The 12Z GFS trends toward a panhandle scenario.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cg...;hour=Animation


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sat Sep 06 2008 01:43 PM
Re: Current motion

Quote:

Quote:

...
The forecast over the next few days will be complicated by Ike's interaction with Cuba. If Ike traverses the spine of Cuba for two days--as some models predict--then I can't imagine much of it surviving that journey. ...




There has been quite a bit of talk about relying on Cuba to weaken the storm. Common sense would lead us to believe this, the Mets like to talk of this, and to a minute degree it is true, Cuba can have some disruptive effects on a TS or Hurricane.

But all available data show the effect is transitory at best and non-existent at worst.. A storm's interaction with Cuba his little to no long term effect on its' strength at an eventual mainland strike.

If you study the historical data of every storm that ever traversed cuba, either along the spine, across the mountains, on a diagonal path, or just a glancing blow, only two in 90 years of historical data were actually weakened enough to be considered "shredded" and both of these were able to regain their pre-cuba strength.

1. Inez who bounced along Cuba's southern coast before making a diagonal crossing for four days at approx. 5mph. She was reduced from a Cat 3 to a Cat 1 after four days of interaction over Cuba's land mass. And even she managed to eventually strengthen to a Cat 4, although slowly.

2. Dennis was reduced from a Cat 4 to a Cat 1 within 24 hours of crossing Cuba. However, after exiting Cuba, within 24 hours his windspeed recovered to 145mph and Cat 4 status.

Many have managed to INCREASE intensity while crossing Cuba, see Frederick, Charley, Georges, Elena, King, Baker, Alma, Isbell, Hilda, #741 1948, #723 1946.

Most have managed to MAINTAIN intensity while crossing Cuba, see Lili, Cleo, Easy, #740 1948, #707 1944, #604 1933, #547 1926, #622 1935,

A few were weakened, but this was a temporary effect. ALL but Inez were able to regain their former strength within just 24 hours, most within 12 hours.

So the "Cuba Effect" while interesting, has had little to no ability to permanently reduce a hurricane's strength below it's pre-cuba status.

It is possible that Cuba has "saved" the mainland USA from a few strikes that might have been slightly stronger had they not interacted with Cuba, but that's conjecture. Historical data shows Cuba is a road bump, not a show stopper.

Note: I only studied storms that were Cat 3 and higher at any point during their development, not necessarily while near Cuba or at landfall. Their intensities near Cuba ranged from TD to Cat 4.




As can be easily seen from this plot of Ikes projected path.

http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/picservice.asp?t=t&m=09&av=20089613

He comes off cuba as a cat 1 and very quickly regains strength to cat 3 atleast.

Also, I still believe that Hanna is going to pull the impending ridge too quickly to the East for Ike to latch onto it. If you look at the time lines of Hanna and Ike, Hanna will be way back out to the Atlantic by Tues. at 8 am, and Ike will just then be reaching the point where the northward turn is supposed to occur


Bev
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Sep 06 2008 02:03 PM
Re: Current motion

Quote:


As can be easily seen from this plot of Ikes projected path.

http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/picservice.asp?t=t&m=09&av=20089613

He comes off cuba as a cat 1 and very quickly regains strength to cat 3 atleast.

Also, I still believe that Hanna is going to pull the impending ridge too quickly to the East for Ike to latch onto it. If you look at the time lines of Hanna and Ike, Hanna will be way back out to the Atlantic by Tues. at 8 am, and Ike will just then be reaching the point where the northward turn is supposed to occur




Statistics support Ike at Cat 3 at 96 hours rather than Cat 2. Only Inez took more than 24 hours to restrengthen, and she was busy doing an about face and heading back the way she came, obviously dealing with less than ideal conditions. Ike doesn't appear to be facing the the same unfavorable conditions.


Evan Johnson
(Weather Guru)
Sat Sep 06 2008 02:50 PM
Re: Current motion

anybody happen to notice on GOES-E the slight jog northward? is it me staring at this thing all morning after and night or do i see that? check out 12:15 UTC - 17:45 UTC. could that pressure system be pulling it slightly?

jf
(Verified CFHC User)
Sat Sep 06 2008 02:58 PM
Re: Current motion

IKe has expended its wind field to the north as well as begin to move more west than west south west. The high to the north has pressures in the southern portion that are lower than earlier today . I'm not sure how that will affect IKE in the short term. Anyone care to guess ???

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sat Sep 06 2008 03:04 PM
Re: Current motion

I am watching the 1700 UTC - 1845 UTC and I still see WSW for me...

Also something to note, three more models on the skeetobite model plot here have Ike taking a direct west turn now on their 18Z track. They may be picking up the ridge that Hanna is pulling East now instead of leaving it where Ike can pick it up


Evan Johnson
(Weather Guru)
Sat Sep 06 2008 03:49 PM
Re: Current motion

Latest wind steering current has come out. check it out

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm1.GIF

looks like that gap for ike to flow north has closed.


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sat Sep 06 2008 04:01 PM
Re: Current motion

I agree and I think we will see that reflected in a pretty good westerly shift in the tracks. It may take until the 11pm EDT update tonight before we see this propogated to all the different models, but I think it will occur.

Evan Johnson
(Weather Guru)
Sat Sep 06 2008 04:04 PM
Re: Current motion

slowly, i think they might be getting a handle on what this storm might be doing. all of the models are in agreement up until it gets into the gulf. then they are uncertain. im sure that cone will shift westward with further updates. while not completely satisfied (i dont think anyone is) nothing short of some sort of crazy scenario, do i think that this storm will impact the east coast of florida.

...but then again this is the atlantic basin


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sat Sep 06 2008 04:10 PM
Re: Current motion

is the west coast of Florida (Tampa) in particular off the hook yet? This thing looks like New Orleans all over it!!

pcola
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Sep 06 2008 04:18 PM
Re: Current motion

nothing from tx to fl is off the hook...not by a longshot

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sat Sep 06 2008 04:20 PM
Re: Current motion

while I wouldn't say that any point is particularly out of the woods with this yet, I would say that if Ike does follow fairly closely to the path that is laid out at this point (getting to the mid-GOM in other words) I think he will be turned west becuase of the high pressure center that will be in place over the northern GOM, this would take NOLA out of the question, but extreme western LA to anywhere on the Texas Coast would then be in the path.

Again, this is just conjecture on my part.


ftlaudbob
(Storm Chaser)
Sat Sep 06 2008 04:48 PM
Re: Current motion

IF Ike does turn into a high cat 4 or 5,before it gets into Cuba,won't that posssible change the track.There is the polar effect,and could change the conditions around it.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sat Sep 06 2008 04:58 PM
Re: Current motion

well the 5pm is out and he is cat 4 again...all of the models except one now show the ridge passing Ike to the north, thus keeping Ike on a west or WNW path across the GOM. There was a slight southern shift in the path, but other than that, not much change right now.

vineyardsaker
(Weather Guru)
Sat Sep 06 2008 06:26 PM
Re: Current motion

The NHC track has Ike pointed almost exactly at New Orleans for the last 24 hours or so. Does that not reflect a strong probability that Ike will end up somewhere near New Orleans?

What are the reasons for hoping that Ike might change course (and, if there are any such reasons, why is the NHC not taking them into account?)?


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sat Sep 06 2008 06:39 PM
Re: Current motion

Well because it is the 5 day forecast that is pointed right at it, it is still very inaccurate pass the "white" part of the forecast track, it could very easily go either East or West of that. However, the NHC likes to err on the side of caution and wait until they can know for sure before making any definite path changes. It does seem though that the opportunity for Ike to take the more north or WNW direction the NHC currently has in place has passed due to the weakness in the high pressure center over the gulf staying to far north. This will probably make the high pressure center push the path further to the west. I suspect the NHC is waiting until the last of their main models to update more to the western path before adjusting their official forecast.

vineyardsaker
(Weather Guru)
Sat Sep 06 2008 07:24 PM
Re: Current motion

What's your guess on the current threat level for New Orleans? Do you know if they are already planning for yet another evacuation? Has Nagin made any statements?

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sat Sep 06 2008 07:33 PM
Re: Current motion

I think it's still too early for them to have said anything about that. It's still about 6-7 days away from hitting in NOLA if that's the direction it chooses. We should get some more good information in about 30 minutes with their next update.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sat Sep 06 2008 07:44 PM
Re: Current motion

live on the coast of Pinellas County. Looks like this thing is going to blow by to my west. What do I need to be looking for to say "uh oh" looks like this thing might have a chance to come my way? Slow speed? Front from the midwest? What will make this thing turn and possibly come my way...otherwise...I'm checking out the NFL for the next two days and putting this thing to bed on it's current path!!

Taz16
(Registered User)
Sat Sep 06 2008 07:56 PM
Re: Current motion

Right now the trend with the models is west. The data from the Gulfstream jet will give us a better idea. If the front is strong it could have a role if ike turns n or nne or ne. Time will tell.

docrod
(Weather Watcher)
Sat Sep 06 2008 08:14 PM
Re: Current motion

Hi - I found the link regarding storm surge predictions if anyone is interested

http://www.weather.gov/mdl/psurge/

It's experimental and the storm needs to be within 24hours of a predicted landfall.

- take care


hurricane expert
(Really Not an Expert)
Sat Sep 06 2008 08:35 PM
Re: Current motion

Everybody in the gulf coast really needs to keep an eye on this catagory 4 monster i should say. The latest computer models have this going as far west as new orleans. I dont see in anyway how this is going to turn out as a trough of low pressure is going to come from central plains. Here what one meteorologist thinks about the storms path !!!


I personally have a hard time believing a storm that is at this latitude (already at 23 north) will go west through the Gulf in September. And with the trough already into the central Plains, I have to believe Ike will be tugged on to steer it more and more toward the north over time.

Of course, there's the complicating factor that suggests the trough will lift enough so that it never really can grab Ike. But that suggests to me more of a stall tactic, rather than an aggressive move to the west. Still, it is an option and, until we get more agreement in the modeling, or the atmosphere shows its hand, so to speak, all options have to be left open, my leanings notwithstanding!


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sat Sep 06 2008 08:42 PM
Re: Current motion

The problem with that quote from that Met is that it is from yesterday or the day before...The storm is now at 21 N, not 23, and with Ike being this far south, he will not be affected by the ridge coming across the US. Ever single model now, including the GFDL (was the lone dissenter at the last update) has Ike taking a left run as he approaches the mid GOM and heading due West, the NHC should have their track updated to follow suit as of the 11pm update.

pcola
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Sep 06 2008 09:19 PM
Re: Current motion

last night gfs was heading to ls..today at Tampa..tonight to central LA then a sharpo NE turn..4-5 day models are not in agreement..whole gulf is involved

hurricane expert
(Really Not an Expert)
Sat Sep 06 2008 09:25 PM
Re: Current motion

We should have a better handle on the situation later tonight into tomorrow as the NOAA G-IV plane flies its mission to sample the atmosphere well out ahead of Ike. This data would be fed in to the 00 UTC computer models it will be intresting

danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sat Sep 06 2008 09:52 PM
Re: Current motion

Big question tonight is ...
Will the extra data ingest from all of the RECON and Research aircraft give a better idea on the future track of Ike.

Cone of Certainty is currently from Vermillion Bay, LA to Key West, FL. That's a lot of beach frontage and more than four times the last Evacuation out of Louisiana.
I hope that everyone in the current Cone has things ready to make the trip to a safe haven, shelter or the like for the coming week. House and home repair can be accomplished after a Storm. But they still haven't mastered Human repair after a Storm. When you have to go... GO !


jeangfl
(Verified CFHC User)
Sat Sep 06 2008 10:08 PM
Re: Current motion

Probably a "newbie" question - why are the Bahamas under a hurricane warning and NOT in the cone?

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sat Sep 06 2008 10:38 PM
Re: Current motion

Quote:

Big question tonight is ...
Will the extra data ingest from all of the RECON and Research aircraft give a better idea on the future track of Ike.

Cone of Certainty is currently from Vermillion Bay, LA to Key West, FL. That's a lot of beach frontage and more than four times the last Evacuation out of Louisiana.
I hope that everyone in the current Cone has things ready to make the trip to a safe haven, shelter or the like for the coming week. House and home repair can be accomplished after a Storm. But they still haven't mastered Human repair after a Storm. When you have to go... GO !




More like the cone of Uncertainty

I think at the 11pm EDT update Ike is going to have strengthened a good deal more than at the 8pm EDT update. His eye is much more defined than it was and he is looking more and more impressive.

Also, looking at the water vapor imagery from the GOES satellite, the ridge that is supposed to create the weakness for Ike to turn north with is already almost over Florida, and Ike is still almost 2 days away from turning back to the NW over Cuba...this feeds into the accuracy of the latest models at Skeetobite, I don't think you can get much more of a consensus than this. A little difference in latitude, but all the same general "western-GOM" motion.


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sat Sep 06 2008 10:40 PM
Re: Current motion

Quote:

Probably a "newbie" question - why are the Bahamas under a hurricane warning and NOT in the cone?




The Bahamas are going to get lashed by what we call the "upper right quadrant" of the storm. This is where the strongest winds are located in a hurricane. The cone only points to where the "center" of the storm will pass over, but doesn't dictate what locations will be affected by the outer parts of the storm.


ftlaudbob
(Storm Chaser)
Sat Sep 06 2008 10:44 PM
Re: Current motion

Quote:

Probably a "newbie" question - why are the Bahamas under a hurricane warning and NOT in the cone?




That is a great question.This situation is flud.Sunday we should know more about Florida.Good observation.


conschscooter
(Registered User)
Sat Sep 06 2008 10:47 PM
Re: Current motion

I wish hurricanes were named after something other than humans. I find the use of personal pronouns weird (Ike is a he? When did a storm generate gonads?) and pronouns have the tendency to personalise what is already a crappy situation. 150 people weren't murdered in Haiti, they were killed by the weather. Perhaps we could name storms after say trees (acacia, buttonwood, cedar...etc...) That would depersonalise it/him. Besides, I don't much like Ike.

Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Sat Sep 06 2008 10:50 PM
Re: Current motion

The extra data should help the model forecasts in the short term. It will also help the hand analysis of the human forecasters at NHC, which is a big part of the short-term official forecasts.

Long term, the extra data probably won't help much, since the features that will eventually be affecting (or passing by) Ike are still a long ways away.


hurricane expert
(Really Not an Expert)
Sat Sep 06 2008 10:55 PM
Re: Current motion

This is going to be intresting if it really holds true http://www.accuweather.com/news-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&article=6 does ?

ftlaudbob
(Storm Chaser)
Sat Sep 06 2008 11:15 PM
Re: Current motion

Very interesting stat from local tv met.17 tropical systems have been where Ike is now,and all have hit south Florida directly or went to our east.

scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Sat Sep 06 2008 11:34 PM
Re: Current motion

Bob... Ike is not coming to your area. There is no model that shows it coming there and its almost impossible for it to move NW into a ridge. IKE is a GOM event with the Keys having a 40% chance.
The Gulfstream flight really doesnt matter much cause All the models agree on a west path across or near Cuba and into the SE Gulf somewhere. Its not like 1 or 2 models dont show this and the NHC wants that data to see which model is right. Also like Thunderbird said, its only for a short term (24-36hr) movement cause condtions change, thats why another flight is the next day.


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sat Sep 06 2008 11:45 PM
Re: Current motion

Yeah you can't get much more straightforward than this from the latest forecast discussion;

HOWEVER...I AM A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENT THAT IN FIVE DAYS...THERE
WILL BE A LARGE HURRICANE IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS SINCE MOST
OF THE TIMES...THIS IS A VERY GOOD OPTION. UNANIMOUSLY...TRACK
MODELS HAVE SHIFTED WESTWARD TONIGHT AND I HAVE DONE THE SAME WITH
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST.

The "central" line of the track now points almost directly at Houston, we'll see how this plays out. We should have additional recon data at 1am CDT that will tell us the more accurate strength and atmospheric conditions.


scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Sun Sep 07 2008 12:16 AM
Re: Current motion

That dont tell us more about its future path. Also a path to Houston is 7-9 days out.
Anyways like I said above about the Gulfstream Data going into the GFS, nothing changed..

I am shocked though on how far north Ike has been 24N and 59W and can make it sooo far west with
no trough affecting it to move N thru 10 days. ( Last Thursday-Next Sunday) at this time of year in Mid Sept almost!


Bev
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sun Sep 07 2008 12:35 AM
Re: Current motion

Quote:

Very interesting stat from local tv met.17 tropical systems have been where Ike is now,and all have hit south Florida directly or went to our east.




Your local met should do a little more research. Kate's path was directly over where Ike is now and she hit the panhandle. Baker was almost exactly on Ike's current point and made landfall in Alabama. Storm #597 (1933) was directly over Ike's location and made landfall in S. Texas. Frederic was within about 40 miles of Ike's position and made landfall in Mobile. Eloise was close to Ike's position and hit the panhandle.

Most near Ike's location do affect south Florida, but by no means all.


ftlaudbob
(Storm Chaser)
Sun Sep 07 2008 01:05 AM
Re: Current motion

Quote:

Bob... Ike is not coming to your area. There is no model that shows it coming there and its almost impossible for it to move NW into a ridge. IKE is a GOM event with the Keys having a 40% chance.
The Gulfstream flight really doesnt matter much cause All the models agree on a west path across or near Cuba and into the SE Gulf somewhere. Its not like 1 or 2 models dont show this and the NHC wants that data to see which model is right. Also like Thunderbird said, its only for a short term (24-36hr) movement cause condtions change, thats why another flight is the next day.




LOL,I hope your right,you could be a rich man if you could say that 100%.Sunday afternoon is when we will know.


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sun Sep 07 2008 01:12 AM
Re: Current motion

the 0000UTC for the GFS is out now, shows the same thing as all the other models now, cutting across the gulf moving WNW and Turning N at the last second and hitting near Houston area. We'll see what the 1 am EDT update has to offer as well.

LoisCane
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sun Sep 07 2008 01:51 AM
Re: Current motion

listen old timers look at this storm and see Donna... a similar path and point and same time of september

so hard to laugh it off... very hard to laugh this off

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200809_climo.html#a_topad

ill try.. hahaha

listen we are all a bit punchy and tired of loops and models are good... nhc has been good

then again they never had models or forecasts for jamaica getting hit did they? like 2 days before he went way far south

so we all watch, wait.. watch..


berrywr
(Weather Analyst)
Sun Sep 07 2008 04:30 AM
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot

http://weather.noaa.gov/fax/nwsfax.html

This is the link for the NWS's Fax Page. If you have Image Viewer, Office 2007 you shouldn't have any problems opening these files which are TIFF and PNG. I cannot say enough about the detail on these charts and if you can open the 850, 700, 500 mb charts, I want everybody to pay attention to all those numbers and letters off the coast of FL. That's NOAA and the Hurricane Hunters sampling the environment, dropsondes, etc. It is that data that added to other RAOB, PIREPS to make up these charts. Most forecasters re-analyze the data on these charts, particularly contours and change of heights over the past 12 and 24 hours, and given where Hanna was 24 hours ago, you're going to see some big changes where Hanna was tonight, particularly with heights. These charts are like the surface analysis, but they are current upper air analysis which all model data is based on. What I do is print off these charts and then compare them to previous progged positions for this time frame. That is how we know what model is performing best and any single point in time. Models are a headache!


Terra
(Storm Tracker)
Sun Sep 07 2008 06:16 AM
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot

Looking at the sats (WV), it looks to me like Ike is trending back to the south a little bit, as the dry air comes in. I wouldn't say WSW, but a little S of due west. I guess we just have to keep watching and hopefully things will start to be more consistent in the next couple of days.

Evan Johnson
(Weather Guru)
Sun Sep 07 2008 08:29 AM
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot *DELETED*

Post deleted by Evan McCone

pcola
(Storm Tracker)
Sun Sep 07 2008 08:44 AM
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot

you might want to change that to the Florida Peninsula or east coast, don't think the panhandle is out of the woods yet, with the hwrf model hitting there and a slight turn late in the gfdl and gfs....it may all come down to the speed of the storm and where it is when a break in the ridge occurs

mcgowanmc
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sun Sep 07 2008 08:44 AM
Re: Current motion

Quote:

Yeah you can't get much more straightforward than this from the latest forecast discussion;

HOWEVER...I AM A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENT THAT IN FIVE DAYS...THERE
WILL BE A LARGE HURRICANE IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

The "central" line of the track now points almost directly at Houston, we'll see how this plays out. We should have additional recon data at 1am CDT that will tell us the more accurate strength and atmospheric conditions.




OMG

From Crownweather this AM:

"The forecast track for the next 36 to 48 hours is a difficult one because forecasting a major hurricane make landfall into Cuba from the east-northeast just isn't right. It is such a rare track that I cannot find an example of a major hurricane doing this. Therefore, I am very reluctantly forecasting a track that is close to the GFDL and HWRF model tracks and am forecasting Ike to come ashore on the north coast of Cuba near La Puerto and Manati late tonight as a very powerful Category 4 hurricane. Once ashore, Ike is forecast to track about 25 miles inland from the north coast of Cuba on Monday into Monday night. Ike should then track off of the north coast of Cuba about 60 miles or so east of Havana late Monday night or early Tuesday morning. This jaunt through northern Cuba may knock Ike down from Category 4 strength to as much as Category 1 strength."

This is Rita or Katrina ReDux.

And NOLA can't afford to evac again. BR is still on it's knees.

The oil industry will take 6 months to recover.
Port Everglades is the regional seaport for nine petroleum companies, which sypply gasoline, jet fuel, fuel oil, diesel fuel, propane, aviation gasoline and asphalt to 12 South Florida counties and all three local international airports.

Broward County - Port Everglades
A: Seventy-five percent of the refined gasoline delivered to Port Everglades on a daily basis comes from refineries in Louisiana, Texas and Mississippi. ...
www.broward.org/port//petroleum_faq.htm

Good Luck, All of Us


Hugh
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Sun Sep 07 2008 08:54 AM
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot

Quote:

you might want to change that to the Florida Peninsula or east coast, don't think the panhandle is out of the woods yet, with the hwrf model hitting there and a slight turn late in the gfdl and gfs....it may all come down to the speed of the storm and where it is when a break in the ridge occurs




Absolutely true. Plus, where and how long it goes over Cuba will be a factor. The models continue to wobble, it's almost as if they stay on a certain track long enough for the NHC to believe it, and then they shift. Powerful hurricanes are also more likely to move poleward, which tends to make me reluctant to believe a Houston landfall, but it's just too early to say for sure.


Evan Johnson
(Weather Guru)
Sun Sep 07 2008 08:57 AM
Re: Current motion

now you are tapping a entirely different realm. i cant buy into that hype. refineries and gas stations have reserves as well as the state. just like any other state, in the event that a storm is projected and or hits their main supplier, they either go to their secondary supplier or tap off their reserve. maybe our gas prices will go up a bit but thats about all. as it is most areas in palm beach county where i live are 20 cents above national average anyway so it doesnt phase me.

Evan Johnson
(Weather Guru)
Sun Sep 07 2008 09:01 AM
Re: Current motion

maybe this will help everyone better understand the current wind steering currents, how strong/weak they are.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm1.GIF

hope this helps.


jf
(Verified CFHC User)
Sun Sep 07 2008 09:04 AM
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot

It appears as though the cloud shield from Ike is expanding to the N while the main storm is moving W at a slightly slower speed. It is possible that Ike could bounce off the mountains in Cuba and wobble to the N or NW. I'm not sure why the cloud shield is expanding to the N but I'm sure someone could explain why.

Evan Johnson
(Weather Guru)
Sun Sep 07 2008 09:11 AM
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot

the fact the storm may be expanding on its north side may have to do with the fact that the current wind steering currents are weakining. there is less pressure on the storm to stay south. IE 2 days ago there was practically no north side of the storm because of the strong frontal boundry pancake'ing it steering it west. the waters it is in now have a weaker steering wind flow current. thats my best guess.

danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sun Sep 07 2008 09:15 AM
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot

Question is probably better answered by a Met.
My thinking is the outer pressure is weakening and allowing the storm envelope to expand.
Also known as the ridge moving or breaking down. Could be a good thing or it might be a bad thing. Only time will tell.

Models have updated and now have four out of twelve making landfall between Panama City Beach,FL and Vermillion Bay,LA.
https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_09.gif


hurricane expert
(Really Not an Expert)
Sun Sep 07 2008 09:19 AM
Re: Ike Approaching Great Inauga, Hanna Extratropical

Its still possible first of all our storm is to the east of us until we see this thing farther away its always good to be prepared. One reason i dont think were out of this as of yet is cause of this trough coming down the mid plains check this out in 48 hours http://www.accuweather.com/maps-galileo....face&fday=5
depending on this is where i think ike is going to go ?


mcgowanmc
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sun Sep 07 2008 09:25 AM
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot

[quote
Models have updated and now have four out of twelve making landfall between Panama City Beach,FL and Vermillion Bay,LA.
https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_09.gif




Now add in the "Ghost Tracks" of Edouard, Fay, and Gustav.

And the fact that NO did not get that much precip from Gustav.

That would rule out Vermillion (Please God says BR). And Panama would be a maybe.
But it's getting "late" into the season and the coriolis effect should negate the continued
"Rita" track.

I like Mobile and West though. In light of both the GFDL and HWRF models have shifted a little northward,
somewhere between PilotTown and Pascagoula. IMHO


pcola
(Storm Tracker)
Sun Sep 07 2008 09:32 AM
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot

models are still way too inconsistent for an accurate 5 day...GFS went from Cedar Key FL yesterday morning to Corpus Christi TX last night to central LA today....the changes per run are over 200 miles...we still have another day before i think an accurate Gulf path is determined

mcgowanmc
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sun Sep 07 2008 09:34 AM
Re: Current motion

Quote:

What's your guess on the current threat level for New Orleans? Do you know if they are already planning for yet another evacuation? Has Nagin made any statements?




Like every other program for Hurricane Preparedness, the people are not getting the info.

Watch what happens when Nagin gives the evac order. Not good.


mcgowanmc
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sun Sep 07 2008 09:50 AM
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot

Quote:

models are still way too inconsistent for an accurate 5 day...GFS went from Cedar Key FL yesterday morning to Corpus Christi TX last night to central LA today....the changes per run are over 200 miles...we still have another day before i think an accurate Gulf path is determined




That's true enough, but every model now shows a Cat 3 in the GOM by Friday AM . And these models have been accurate enough
this year. The instant Ike takes it's WNW track, everyone from Panama City to Vermilion Bay will have
to begin prep. And who can afford to?

Ex-Mississippi/Alabama will have to pull every power truck out of Louisiana.
By this Evening we should know the angle Ike will hit Cuba.
That'll tell us alot.

Sincerely,
James


hogrunr
(Weather Guru)
Sun Sep 07 2008 10:01 AM
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot

Once landfall is withing 48-72 hours, the error will be drastically smaller than 200 miles, so it will be a much more focused evacuation. there are still about 35 other states that have power trucks to send down, so while Mississippi may have to pull back their own trucks (if Ike hits in that area that is) there will be plenty of others just waiting to get in on the money to be made from this.

The same situation waits for TX, they will have to pull their resources out of LA if it hits in TX.


jf
(Verified CFHC User)
Sun Sep 07 2008 10:04 AM
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot

Quote:

Question is probably better answered by a Met.
My thinking is the outer pressure is weakening and allowing the storm envelope to expand.
Also known as the ridge moving or breaking down. Could be a good thing or it might be a bad thing. Only time will tell.

Models have updated and now have four out of twelve making landfall between Panama City Beach,FL and Vermillion Bay,LA.
https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_09.gif




I see from recent Sat images that Ike has wobbled to the NW as it approached the Island of Inagua.Does the recent expansion of the storm envelope to the North mean the storm could be moving into the least hostil environment.? What conditions would need exist to confirm a shift of a storm as strong as IKE.?


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sun Sep 07 2008 10:10 AM
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot

So this is no longer a central florida/south florida event?

ftlaudbob
(Storm Chaser)
Sun Sep 07 2008 10:13 AM
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot

Is there any site where I can find last Thursday's NHC forecast track.I believe it is currently still on THAT track.I think it had it going along the north coast of Cuba.

Ben F.
(Registered User)
Sun Sep 07 2008 10:14 AM
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot

Central and South Florida is out of the cone. There is no chance of it coming here.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sun Sep 07 2008 10:15 AM
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot

They usually have it in the archives. Interesting thing is. Only 1 storm ever has not hit florida that was within 300 miles of ike right now. This is a once in a lifetime event that it won't hit florida.All that tells me is, the chances of central florida like tampa area has a very slim to none chance to ever be hit directly by a hurricane.

jf
(Verified CFHC User)
Sun Sep 07 2008 10:16 AM
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot

The NHC website has an archive section

ftlaudbob
(Storm Chaser)
Sun Sep 07 2008 10:18 AM
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot

Quote:

There is no chance of it coming here.





If you know anything about hurricanes,that statement is very careless and wrong.It is STILL to the SE of Florida.


pcola
(Storm Tracker)
Sun Sep 07 2008 10:21 AM
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot

Quote:

They usually have it in the archives. Interesting thing is. Only 1 storm ever has not hit florida that was within 300 miles of ike right now. This is a once in a lifetime event that it won't hit florida.All that tells me is, the chances of central florida like tampa area has a very slim to none chance to ever be hit directly by a hurricane.




Just to repost, that is not correct..
Kate's path was directly over where Ike is now and she hit the panhandle. Baker was almost exactly on Ike's current point and made landfall in Alabama. Storm #597 (1933) was directly over Ike's location and made landfall in S. Texas. Frederic was within about 40 miles of Ike's position and made landfall in Mobile. Eloise was close to Ike's position and hit the panhandle


danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sun Sep 07 2008 10:21 AM
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot

Quote:

Central and South Florida is out of the cone. There is no chance of it coming here.




Until the storm... any storm is north of your location there is still a slight change, or 50/ 50 chance, of the storm hitting your location.

Hurricane Ivan in 2004 is a perfect example.
Hurricane Charley was forecast to hit Tampa and turned NE.
I could go on and on.

A Storm in the GOM or Caribbean requires a minimum of checking the Storms status and forecast every 6 hours. Regardless of whether you are in the Cone or not.

My personal opinion and not necessarily that of the Management or Administration.


ftlaudbob
(Storm Chaser)
Sun Sep 07 2008 10:22 AM
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot

Quote:

The NHC website has an archive section




But you can't get an active storm's past forecast track,like Ike's from last Thursday.


HurricaneHunter
(Registered User)
Sun Sep 07 2008 10:24 AM
Re: Mayor Nagan Fears IKE

Even as residents who fled the city ahead of Hurricane Gustav continued to return, Mayor Ray Nagin said Saturday that it appeared the city would need to start worrying about Hurricane Ike.


Hurricane Ike grew to Category 4 strength Saturday and could head into the Gulf of Mexico by early next week, putting residents along the Gulf Coast on alert less than a week after Gustav made landfall in south Louisiana.


Nagin told reporters he's worried about fast-moving Ike and about the wherewithal of residents who one week ago began leaving ahead of Gustav. Reactions of residents who've returned have ranged from relief to find their homes not flooded to frustration with the cost of evacuating and time away from home.


"Our citizens are weary and they're tired and they have spent a lot of money evacuating, some of them, from Gustav," Nagin said Saturday evening. "My expectations this time is, it will be very difficult to move the kind of numbers out of this city that we moved during Gustav."


An estimated 18,000 residents relied on government-provided buses, trains and planes to evacuate New Orleans. On Monday, when Gustav made landfall as a Category 2 storm in south Louisiana, police estimated that only 10,000 people remained in the city out of an estimated 310,000 to 340,000 residents.


Nagin's emergency preparedness director, Jerry Sneed, said the city will have buses and trains at its disposal, should it need to evacuate people. Sneed said that if anyone is reluctant to leave -- if the call comes to evacuate again -- they should remember the images of Hurricane Katrina, which included people stranded on rooftops, surrounded by floodwaters.


"If you look at being inconvenienced by a shelter or a long bus ride, you need to remember what Katrina was like," Sneed said. "Nothing can compare to that."


At this point, the city is monitoring Ike and its still-uncertain path.


Nagin said officials are faced with a "new set of challenges," including the possibility that evacuees will not be able to rely on many of the in-state shelters at their disposal for Gustav.


The mayor said officials will need to get a good assessment on the condition of the city's levee protection system and that the potential exists for phased evacuations -- or, the evacuation of certain parts of the city considered more vulnerable to a storm.


"We may have to rely upon our levee protection system this time in a way that we didn't with Gustav," he said.


Evan Johnson
(Weather Guru)
Sun Sep 07 2008 10:26 AM
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot

the way it looks right now, the chance of it nailing south florida with a direct hit is preety unlikely. THINGS DO CHANGE as i have specified before. and i agree with bob, while it is se of florida anything is possible and until it gets into the gulf should we breathe easy. however it is not looking like it will effect south florida with a direct hit at the given time. just because we arent in the cone and it isnt going to be a direct hit to south florida doesnt mean we wont get effected either. if this thing wobbles more north and it passes in between the keys and cuba, then south west and south east florida will experience some preety nasty weather. strong wind gusts, squally rains etc.

hogrunr
(Weather Guru)
Sun Sep 07 2008 10:33 AM
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot

Quote:

Quote:

Central and South Florida is out of the cone. There is no chance of it coming here.




Until the storm... any storm is north of your location there is still a slight change, or 50/ 50 chance, of the storm hitting your location.

Hurricane Ivan in 2004 is a perfect example.
Hurricane Charley was forecast to hit Tampa and turned NE.
I could go on and on.

A Storm in the GOM or Caribbean requires a minimum of checking the Storms status and forecast every 6 hours. Regardless of whether you are in the Cone or not.

My personal opinion and not necessarily that of the Management or Administration.




I guess the question with this situation is, were these storms forecast to hit Florida? I know things can change, but the there is a HUGE difference in a storm making a freak turn and hitting Florida when it is forecast elsewhere, and the storm being forecast to hit Florida.

In other words, if Ivan and Charley were forecast to hit Florida, then that doesn't exactly meet the example that people are trying to make now when saying that Ike is still likely to go AGAINST the forecast and turn towards Florida.

Again, not saying it isn't possible, but I think there is a huge difference in what everyone is trying to make it into. This is not a 50/50 or even probably a 70/30, but more like a 90/10 chance of Ike following the path it's projected to vs. it hitting central or south Florida.


danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sun Sep 07 2008 10:40 AM
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot

From the Mobile,AL Forecast Discussion:

THERE ARE A NUMBER OF "WHAT-IF`S"
INCLUDING THE POSITION OF HERETOFORE UNPREDICTED FEATURES IN THE
WESTERLIES THAT COULD STEER THE STORM DIFFERENTLY THAN WHAT WAS
THOUGHT OR CALCULATED...OR WHAT WOULD HAPPEN IF THE DRY AIR TO THE
NORTHWEST WERE INGESTED INTO IKE.

IT WILL BE SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE
ANYONE CAN SAY WITH MUCH MORE CONFIDENCE WHERE THIS TRACK WILL BE.
ONE MUST RECALL THAT THE ERROR CIRCLES (CONE OF UNCERTAINTY)
REPRESENTS A 2/3 CONFIDENCE WHICH IS A RUNNING AVERAGE OVER THE LAST
FIVE YEARS. THAT UNCERTAINTY IS THE REASON WHY IT IS IMPORTANT THAT
ALL INTERESTS CONSTANTLY STAY POSTED ON WHAT IS HAPPENING WITH THIS
HURRICANE. 77/BD

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/printable.php?pil=AFD&sid=MOB&date=2008-09-07%2009:31:17


jf
(Verified CFHC User)
Sun Sep 07 2008 10:43 AM
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot

If the NHC predication of a westerly move for IKE is accurate should that be plotted from the recent wobble of IKE ?

Loxgal
(Registered User)
Sun Sep 07 2008 10:46 AM
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot

Bob,
Check the archives...Then in the archive section at the top in blue there is another link for Graphics archive. Then you can pick the graphic you want. I found the 3 and 5 day cone history. It plays a loop but you can stop it, etc.

Betsy


danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sun Sep 07 2008 10:47 AM
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/071430.shtml

Key West Hurricane Local Statement:
......PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...

FOR KEY WEST...THERE IS A 65 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS
39 MPH OR GREATER. THERE IS A 18 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED
WINDS 74 MPH OR GREATER.

FOR MARATHON...THERE IS A 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS
39 MPH OR GREATER. THERE IS A 13 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED
WINDS 74 MPH OR GREATER.

FOR MIAMI...THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS
39 MPH OR GREATER. THERE IS A 5 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS
74 MPH OR GREATER.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/WTUS82-KKEY.shtml


danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sun Sep 07 2008 11:11 AM
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot

3 Day forecast for 11 AM Friday
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/graphics/al09/AL092008_3NLW_018_0.GIF

3 day Forecast for 11 AM Sunday
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/graphics/al09/AL092008_3NLW_026_0.GIF


mcgowanmc
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sun Sep 07 2008 11:19 AM
Re: Mayor Nagan Fears IKE

Quote:



Nagin said officials are faced with a "new set of challenges," including the possibility that evacuees will not be able to rely on many of the in-state shelters at their disposal for Gustav.


The mayor said officials will need to get a good assessment on the condition of the city's levee protection system and that the potential exists for phased evacuations -- or, the evacuation of certain parts of the city considered more vulnerable to a storm.


"We may have to rely upon our levee protection system this time in a way that we didn't with Gustav," he said.




Thank you. I was looking for this.

There is no shelter from BR to Houma. 80 Iron men from BR to NO have been knocked down. And a guy from WDSU(Ch 361 DirectTV) showed film of the concrete
wall, the Industrial Canal. It was battered. There were holes. The levees can't take a strong TS right now.


Evan Johnson
(Weather Guru)
Sun Sep 07 2008 11:20 AM
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot

the 3 day from fri to sunday are preety accurate as far as time frame, but thats a huge jump to the south. thanks for those posts daniel.

also note, only 3 models are pointing to a panhandle scenario now. 1 of which of the 3 doesnt even have a landfall plot yet.


mcgowanmc
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sun Sep 07 2008 11:40 AM
Re: Current motion

Quote:

now you are tapping a entirely different realm. i cant buy into that hype. refineries and gas stations have reserves as well as the state. just like any other state, in the event that a storm is projected and or hits their main supplier, they either go to their secondary supplier or tap off their reserve. maybe our gas prices will go up a bit but thats about all. as it is most areas in palm beach county where i live are 20 cents above national average anyway so it doesnt phase me.




But now you're into my forte. You can go to theoildrum.com.

The experts I rely on: WestTexas, Khebab, Ace, Gailthe Actuary.
Mexico has dropped it's exports to the US by 30% over last year.
Just in the last week 1 million bpd have not been produced in the GOM.

Even if we don't get another hurricane, MOL is here now. And don't even rely on the NYMEX as a predictor.
Port Fourchon/the LOOP won't be up for at least another week and crude is down?

And oyu think those crews are going to be put back iinto the GOM with a CAT 3 on the way?

And a BTW-there's not enough gasoline for another Evac of NO.


Evan Johnson
(Weather Guru)
Sun Sep 07 2008 11:55 AM
Re: Current motion

personally i think we should keep our eyes on where the storm is going and what it is going to do before we start to worry about the pre storm and after storm effects of what ike is going to do to the oil industry. even still we should keep this forum page to just what the storm is doing and what it is going to do.

native
(Weather Guru)
Sun Sep 07 2008 12:01 PM
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot

Sure you can Bob. If you click on the Archive section then click on maps it'll play the tracks out for you in loop. you can slow the play speed down or make it go faster. There's also a stop button I believe which will let you sort of "freeze frame" it.

If you can't slow it down enough, you could always go back through the Archives for the Public Advisories and/or Discussions which always give the coordinates in them as well and compare that way.


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sun Sep 07 2008 12:09 PM
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot

Quote:

Quote:

They usually have it in the archives. Interesting thing is. Only 1 storm ever has not hit florida that was within 300 miles of ike right now. This is a once in a lifetime event that it won't hit florida.All that tells me is, the chances of central florida like tampa area has a very slim to none chance to ever be hit directly by a hurricane.




Just to repost, that is not correct..
Kate's path was directly over where Ike is now and she hit the panhandle. Baker was almost exactly on Ike's current point and made landfall in Alabama. Storm #597 (1933) was directly over Ike's location and made landfall in S. Texas. Frederic was within about 40 miles of Ike's position and made landfall in Mobile. Eloise was close to Ike's position and hit the panhandle




I should of been clear.. any category 3,4,5 hurricanes...

http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at200809_climo.gif
Actually just 2.


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sun Sep 07 2008 12:44 PM
Re: Current motion

While I normally just lurk here for the great info. on hurricanes, I must reply to your incorrect statements as a resident of NOLA and south Louisiana.

Port Fourchon reopened to some traffic Friday, LOOP started offloading Friday as well.

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/business/energy/5985161.html

There is plenty of gasoline in in the New Orleans area, as soon as they started opening Wed. and Thursday, most
had plentiful supplies throughout the area. Most residents filled there tanks up upon return, so i would say there is more than enough for another evacuation.
We are keeping a very close eye on Ike, but now is not the time to panic.


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sun Sep 07 2008 12:53 PM
Re: Mayor Nagan Fears IKE

Quote:

There is no shelter from BR to Houma. 80 Iron men from BR to NO have been knocked down. And a guy from WDSU(Ch 361 DirectTV) showed film of the concrete
wall, the Industrial Canal. It was battered. There were holes. The levees can't take a strong TS right now.




This is incorrect as well, the wall shown was a Port facility wall, not part of the flood protection. The industrial canal walls had waves splashing over, there was minor erosion near a few R/R gate, but not much else. The New Orleans area is in good shape, the Grand Isle levee and one near Lafitte were breached, but not in the metro New Orleans area.
http://www.nola.com/hurricane/index.ssf/2008/09/corps_cites_areas_needing_quic.html

While we would prefer not to have another storm come this way, to say they cannot take a strong TS is both incorrect and could induce a panic which is unjustified.


EBinTX
(Weather Watcher)
Sun Sep 07 2008 01:47 PM
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot

Personally, I believe anything beyond 48 hours right now is a crap shoot. About all I think can be said with a standard deviation of confidence is that Ike will soon ht Cuba and then later will emerge somewhere in the GOM. I seriously question any models ability to accurately forecast how Ike will be affected by its time over Cuba, where it will come out and what kind of condition it will be in. I can easily see how Ike could end up on the south side of Cuba, head for the Yucatan and then head west toward somewhere between Corpus and Brownsville. Where when and how Ike emerges as it departs Cuba will be key.

At the 120 hr point the models are quite divergent, forecasting landfall from somewhere near Corpus to as far east as Apalachicola. Being just 12 miles inland south of Houston I will be watching every move carefully. But at this time it is way too early to get excited about a particular landfall possibility.


scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Sun Sep 07 2008 01:54 PM
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot

The only models everyone really needs to look at is the GFDL and the GFS, thats is unless 1 of them is a outlier.The ECMWF isn't bad but just generally gives us a idea of AROUND where a system might be. Rest of the models are not too liable. Sometimes a model, like the UKmet does well, but only if it is inline with the GFDL and GFS. So in summary, GFS-GFDL rest dont even bother looking at or you will start assuming possibilities that just wont come true.

Ed DunhamAdministrator
(Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator)
Sun Sep 07 2008 01:57 PM
Re: Current motion

By my rough calculation Ike would be about 5 or 6 days away from any potential landfall in Louisiana and at least a week from the Houston area. With that in mind, I think that Evan is correct and we should focus on the storm itself in this thread. 'Impact' concerns will be better suited for the Disaster Forum at a later time.

Someone noted that it was not only important to watch the 'cone', but also how the cone shifts over time...and that was good advice. The larger 5-day cone still covers a huge area which suggests continued uncertainty in the track beyond 3 days. Probably adding to that uncertainty is the notion that Ike is expected to grow in size after it gets into the Gulf.

While I'm at it, I'll also add that there has been some excellent dialogue in the Lounge over the past couple of days with the posting of some worthwhile information and data links.
Thanks,
ED


LoisCane
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sun Sep 07 2008 03:23 PM
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot

"Until the storm... any storm is north of your location there is still a slight change, or 50/ 50 chance, of the storm hitting your location."

Yeah..rule of thumb by my mother and older relatives.. until it's west of you or north of you... pay attention.

NHC doing an incredible job this year or I'd be really terrified with that big storm down there. Seriously, they have done a great job but as someone here said...things change

so ... him moving slowly doesn't thrill me even though the models are insistent


jf
(Verified CFHC User)
Sun Sep 07 2008 03:38 PM
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot

The storm has taken made a shift to the NW. Do any of you see the turn?

hurricane expert
(Really Not an Expert)
Sun Sep 07 2008 03:43 PM
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot

yeah i'm seeing the same thing more like a w/nw track now lets see how this plays out. If ike make landfall in cuba and stays in the north side of the island things are going to get intresting !

hogrunr
(Weather Guru)
Sun Sep 07 2008 03:48 PM
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot

I see about three or four frames of the animation that look like that kind of turn and then the last two frames take it back to the W or WSW, so lets see over the next hour or so what overall track it takes, it is easy for the system to wobble sometimes, so we'll have to see if that's all it is or not.

It's actually right at the latitude that the track has it changing to due west, so it's pretty close to expected now.


Evan Johnson
(Weather Guru)
Sun Sep 07 2008 04:07 PM
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot

on goes, i notice a clear shift of the eye to the NW. i have studied the past 60 images for reliability. plotting it there was a jog to the nw. whether this is perminent, or just a slight movement i am not sure i will continue to study the loops and get back to everyone.

studying everything further, at 13:15 utc the center of circulation was placed at 21.04N 73.41W off of the west coast Great Inagua Island. presently (19:15 utc) the center of circulation is at 21.08N 74.17W. correction WNW maybe. anyone else taking a look at this?


hurricane expert
(Really Not an Expert)
Sun Sep 07 2008 04:15 PM
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot

I would give it alittle more time to see if this is in fact a seriouse move more to the north. But other then that i do see this as a motion more to the w/nw.

hogrunr
(Weather Guru)
Sun Sep 07 2008 04:17 PM
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot

Yes, I can see that it would be at a slightly more northern position, however the 19:10-19:55 UTC images seem like it leveled out to a due west movement, I don't know yet which one is going to be the over all trend (west or NW), so we'll have to see if it goes west far enough to get over cuba or if it runs up the northern coast.

Evan Johnson
(Weather Guru)
Sun Sep 07 2008 04:22 PM
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot

given the most recent wind steering current product, i find this slight move facinating, considering the wind current steering product shows a steady push to the south.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm1.GIF


jf
(Verified CFHC User)
Sun Sep 07 2008 04:27 PM
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot

This appears to be a clear shift in the movement of IKE to the NW. On the current track it would be just off the northern coast of Cuba by about 60-80 miles at its closest point to Cuba as it heads to the Florida Straits. There must have been a weakness in the ridge to the north.

hurricane expert
(Really Not an Expert)
Sun Sep 07 2008 04:31 PM
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot

If this is really a trend now then i will really have to say that the ridge to the north is weakening right about now.

EBinTX
(Weather Watcher)
Sun Sep 07 2008 04:33 PM
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot

There's certainly a jog north. The visible sat shows it moved from about 21.0 °N at 15:15 to about 21..2 °N at 19:45. Cuban radar shows the eye well and position is about 21.2 °N at 19:30. The last discussion forecast movement from 21.0 N at 15:00Z to 20.9 at 00 Z. We'll need to wait and see if this is a rel move or just a temporary jog. For anyone interested the Cuban station at Hologuin is showing a nice image.

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILLAS&TB1=RADARES


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Sun Sep 07 2008 04:42 PM
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot

Quote:

There's certainly a jog north. The visible sat shows it moved from about 21.0 °N at 15:15 to about 21..2 °N at 19:45. Cuban radar shows the eye well and position is about 21.2 °N at 19:30. The last discussion forecast movement from 21.0 N at 15:00Z to 20.9 at 00 Z. We'll need to wait and see if this is a rel move or just a temporary jog. For anyone interested the Cuban station at Hologuin is showing a nice image.

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILLAS&TB1=RADARES




We're running a long term cuban radar recording http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?52 there too, I don't think it would be northwest. It's a good set up for the general wobble wars though. I'm thinking its going to move more west than anything and not really veer too much one way or the other.


hogrunr
(Weather Guru)
Sun Sep 07 2008 04:42 PM
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot

The last images at the NASA site HERE support the continued due west movement after that slight jog north, we should know by the end of the hour if this holds up.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sun Sep 07 2008 04:45 PM
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot

New 5pm is out. NHC sticking to their guns

HurricaneHunter
(Registered User)
Sun Sep 07 2008 05:07 PM
Re: My long term perdictions for IKE


As for Ike in the short term and all models now agree it will move into the Gulf of Mexico passing over or just north of Cuba coastline. Once it make it to the GOM a shortwave trough moving over the eastern US is expected to create a weakness to the North of Ike resulting in a turn to the WNW or NW with a decrease in forward speed. This shortwave trough is the critical player in Ike's Eventual Track at the Extended ranges. Dynamical Models are still split into two camps, but the NOGAPS run now shows a head on to New Orleans, LA as a CAT 3 or 4.

As for my perdictions its a little too soon to pin point a hit for Ike. But I will say that people living anywhere between Morgan City, LA and Mobile AL will see IKE making landfall somewhere in their region.

BELOW IS A LINK TO THE NOGAPS MODEL.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/metoc/nogaps/js_anim_no_amer_slp_wind.html

http://www.hurricanecity.net
http://www.hurricanecity.org



Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sun Sep 07 2008 05:08 PM
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot

Quote:

New 5pm is out. NHC sticking to their guns




the track is updated on the 2's and 8's advisories... so they are not neccessarily sticking by their guns, just not a cone update on the 5's


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sun Sep 07 2008 05:15 PM
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot

Quote:

Quote:

New 5pm is out. NHC sticking to their guns




the track is updated on the 2's and 8's advisories... so they are not neccessarily sticking by their guns, just not a cone update on the 5's


Actually you're wrong unfortunately. It's updated every 6 hours.

5pm 11pm 5am and 11am


LoisCane
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sun Sep 07 2008 05:21 PM
Re: My long term perdictions for IKE

very logical thinking

everyone likes to throw out the nogaps but its here for a reason

either way if he does move wnw starting at 11... that would be a good day earlier

watching his forward movement

discussion alluded to his movement being at 12 yet they wrote the forecast at 14

little things like this bother me a lot

weaker bm but dropsonde didn't hit it or it's not there?

too many inconsistencies


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Sun Sep 07 2008 05:27 PM
Re: My long term perdictions for IKE

another tool for wobble wars is the Microwave Imagery found here

Evan Johnson
(Weather Guru)
Sun Sep 07 2008 05:36 PM
Wobble Wars!

wobble wars ...

looks like less of a movement on the microwave animation but still a movement. goes shows more of a movment. not sure why that is, however we will just have to keep our eyes on it however tired of ike they are.


HurricaneHunter
(Registered User)
Sun Sep 07 2008 05:49 PM
Re: Wobble Wars!

Take a another LOOK at Cuba Radar, it appears to be moving near WEST.

Visit my websites:

www.hurricanecity.net
www.hurricanecity.org





gatorman
(Verified CFHC User)
Sun Sep 07 2008 06:02 PM
Re: Wobble Wars!

just wondering, AEMN, NGPS, CLP5, and HWRF, have pretty much stuck to a more north then north east curve, like most earlier thought Ike would go. are these dependable models? i know most times everyone says you cant really forcast a hurricane till it passes over, or has some sort of interaction with Cuba, seems hurricanes have done weird things after land interaction, is this the same with Ike? i need to give notice to NHC, with Gustav they were right on, a long way off, they nailed it. i didnt think they had a clue last time but they were right on!! respect given,, just hope they are wrong this time!!! anyways about the modeling,, is it kind of a toss up until it gets past cuba??

eulogia
(Weather Watcher)
Sun Sep 07 2008 07:30 PM
Re: My long term perdictions for IKE

Quote:

another tool for wobble wars is the Microwave Imagery found here




Looking at the Microwave Imagery at the site you provided, there is a wobble if not a trend to the NW.


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Sun Sep 07 2008 07:39 PM
Re: My long term perdictions for IKE

Just to clarify, it's pretty much on the track, still moving due west and recon verfies that as well. I think the NHC's path is going to right on for the next 12 hours or so.

Indeed it looks like Florida is going to miss the worst of it, (Keys will see some effects as it will get pretty close), but the cone at large is off of Florida for good reason I think. Points west, Louisiana or Texas still the most likely, but a good way to go to determine that. Mexico isn't out of the question either. Points east will still want to watch closely until Ike clears Cuba, though. But it's important to note that those places are a lot less likely to see anything.


scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Sun Sep 07 2008 07:46 PM
Re: My long term perdictions for IKE

There was only a 2 hr jog wnw then it went back to a due west motion. A west motion with a few jogs WNW will continue tonight with a bend to the WNW later on Monday.
It's too far out to make a forecast for landfall, but right now we know it wont hit S. Florida or the west coast of Florida. If I had to make a guess, it would be from Ne TX-central LA.


EBinTX
(Weather Watcher)
Sun Sep 07 2008 07:51 PM
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot

Looks like the Master, MikeC, is indeed correct - holding 21.1 - 21.2 ° through 23:30Z by Cuban radar -- steady west. Landfall near Banes in Holguin Province in about two hours.

Ed in Va
(Weather Master)
Sun Sep 07 2008 07:55 PM
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot

This is going to be an interesting call for NO. Both the GFDL and GFS ultimately go west of there, but not before going making a pretty direct line and then going west just before they do.

IMTechspec
(Verified CFHC User)
Sun Sep 07 2008 07:55 PM
Re: My long term perdictions for IKE

Agreed with the Westward track.

Here is a 12 hour high resolution loop, as of 2350z 07sept2008, starting just before Ike hits Inagua. It bobbles North and South just a bit, but the general motion is still due West.
Note: If you do not have a very high speed connection, do not try this link. Lower end xDSL probably cannot handle it. It is almost 400Mb.

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?vis1km_east_full+/12h/+-noauto

I have to wonder what is left standing on Inagua.


LoisCane
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sun Sep 07 2008 08:30 PM
Re: why this is a possible problem

eye has gotten very small

i think the eye wall replacement cycle they were talking about finished

really think it's stronger now than 5

from visible and others

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/jsl.jpg

really small eye..

about to hit cuba


EBinTX
(Weather Watcher)
Sun Sep 07 2008 08:32 PM
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot

While I honestly believe all bets are off until Ike clears Cuba, looking at the 18Z runs of GFDL, GFS and HWRF and the 12Z on NGP all appear to have converged on landfall in SW LA between the TX border and the Delta, very near where Gustav came ashore. Even the Canadian model is in agreement.

hurricane expert
(Really Not an Expert)
Mon Sep 08 2008 02:50 AM
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot

Some of the models have shifted east from the earlier runs. And I probably expect for them to probably continue that trend for now in my opinion. This is why i say this check out the trough location in about 2 days? it makes sense to me ! http://www.accuweather.com/maps-surface....c&fday=48hr Were probably going to have a stronger trough then earlier forcast as it shows digging south.

HurricaneHunter
(Registered User)
Mon Sep 08 2008 05:40 AM
Re: The NHC forecast is only good for 3 day, after 72 hrs a sharp short wave will pick IKE up

I disagree with the NCH after 72 hours with their forecast. I feel that the sharp short wave through moving across the plains will pick IKE up and move it north then northeast. The GFS and GFDL have been doing very well with IKE, why would they just throw the data out the window.

I'm still sticking to my guns and say IKE will move inland from Morgan City, LA to Mobile, AL as a strong CAT 2.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0908W_sm2+gif/025730W_sm.gif






(It is CFHC policy not to flame individuals or agencies and to recommend that site visitors always follow the advice of the NHC. You can state why you disagree with something, but a bend in a model track is hardly a good reason.)


EBinTX
(Weather Watcher)
Mon Sep 08 2008 07:19 AM
Re: The NHC forecast is only good for 3 day, after 72 hrs a sharp short wave will pick IKE up

Ike appears to be loosing a lot of strength over Cuba. The track overnight has been steadily westward at about 21.1 (+/-0.1) °. If that holds for another 7-8 hours Ike would emerge over the warm Caribbean waters on the south side. That could get interesting - same place where Gustav gained strength. If, however, the forecast track holds, Ike may degrade severely and have insufficient organization to become much of anything in the Gulf. Until it's emerges from Cuba I still believe it remain very undecided.

hogrunr
(Weather Guru)
Mon Sep 08 2008 08:14 AM
Re: The NHC forecast is only good for 3 day, after 72 hrs a sharp short wave will pick IKE up

I think the NHC made themselves very clear in their last forecast discussion on their reasoning behind their forecast...the GFS is the only model according to them that shows any kind of short wave trough moving across the US in the next couple of days. They said since the GFDL and HWRF use the GFS to get their boundary conditions, they may be picking up on this and not truly modeling that situation on their own accord. Until multiple models show this short wave trough, they won't shift their model, and actually the majority of the models in that last spaghetti model that was posted still point towards Houston, only about 4 of them point towards LA.

hogrunr
(Weather Guru)
Mon Sep 08 2008 09:14 AM
Re: The NHC forecast is only good for 3 day, after 72 hrs a sharp short wave will pick IKE up

The latest satellite imagery shows Ike has a NW jog (more like a wobble) in his motion, but is still more of a WNW motion and his eye is about to emerge over the southern coast of Cuba, we'll see if he makes it all the way off before he finishes his turn to the NW. He is definitely looking weakened, but not destroyed.

MichaelA
(Weather Analyst)
Mon Sep 08 2008 09:33 AM
Re: The NHC forecast is only good for 3 day, after 72 hrs a sharp short wave will pick IKE up

It looks like Ike is heading due West or very slightly North of West which is about to bring the CoC out over water just South of the Cuban coast. We'll see soon if that shortwave trough that the GFS has picked up is real or just a temporary anomaly. At any rate, things won't begin to gel until Ike is in the Gulf.

Evan Johnson
(Weather Guru)
Mon Sep 08 2008 09:53 AM
Re: The NHC forecast is only good for 3 day, after 72 hrs a sharp short wave will pick IKE up

good morning...

latest wind steering product.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm1.GIF


mcgowanmc
(Weather Hobbyist)
Mon Sep 08 2008 10:01 AM
Re: The NHC forecast is only good for 3 day, after 72 hrs a sharp short wave will pick IKE up

Quote:

I think the NHC made themselves very clear in their last forecast discussion on their reasoning behind their forecast...the GFS is the only model according to them that shows any kind of short wave trough moving across the US in the next couple of days. They said since the GFDL and HWRF use the GFS to get their boundary conditions, they may be picking up on this and not truly modeling that situation on their own accord. Until multiple models show this short wave trough, they won't shift their model, and actually the majority of the models in that last spaghetti model that was posted still point towards Houston, only about 4 of them point towards LA.




But those 4 are the Big Dogs of the season so far.

And Ike will not follow Gustav's track. Therefore Ike will go in East of Gustav.

Frederic 1979 or Elena 1985.

As the SciGuy, Houston Chronicle points out:

http://blogs.chron.com/sciguy/

Ike will now miss both Mountain Ranges in Cuba.


hogrunr
(Weather Guru)
Mon Sep 08 2008 10:08 AM
Re: The NHC forecast is only good for 3 day, after 72 hrs a sharp short wave will pick IKE up

Quote:

Quote:

I think the NHC made themselves very clear in their last forecast discussion on their reasoning behind their forecast...the GFS is the only model according to them that shows any kind of short wave trough moving across the US in the next couple of days. They said since the GFDL and HWRF use the GFS to get their boundary conditions, they may be picking up on this and not truly modeling that situation on their own accord. Until multiple models show this short wave trough, they won't shift their model, and actually the majority of the models in that last spaghetti model that was posted still point towards Houston, only about 4 of them point towards LA.




But those 4 are the Big Dogs of the season so far.

And Ike will not follow Gustav's track. Therefore Ike will go in East of Gustav.

Frederic 1979 or Elena 1985.

As the SciGuy, Houston Chronicle points out:

http://blogs.chron.com/sciguy/

Ike will now miss both Mountain Ranges in Cuba.




and 2 of the 4 are based off of a third out of that 4 and is the only one that shows that ridge so far...as far as Ike not following Gus's tracks, that is purely "rule of thumb" or conjecture, if the winds steer it that way, it's not going to just magically avoid it because there that path "has already been used" this season.

If the theory of one Hurricane avoiding the earlier path of another is true, then Ike going West of Gus's tracks is just as much of a possibility as him going East of it.

The latest IR data shows Ike has taken his due NW turn...he is now skirting the southern coast of Cuba, while still on shore, he may go temporarily off shore and then back on over the next couple of hours.


mcgowanmc
(Weather Hobbyist)
Mon Sep 08 2008 10:40 AM
Re: The NHC forecast is only good for 3 day, after 72 hrs a sharp short wave will pick IKE up

Quote:

...and 2 of the 4 are based off of a third out of that 4 and is the only one that shows that ridge so far...as far as Ike not following Gus's tracks, that is purely "rule of thumb" or conjecture, if the winds steer it that way, it's not going to just magically avoid it because there that path "has already been used" this season.

If the theory of one Hurricane avoiding the earlier path of another is true, then Ike going West of Gus's tracks is just as much of a possibility as him going East of it.

The latest IR data shows Ike has taken his due NW turn...he is now skirting the southern coast of Cuba, while still on shore, he may go temporarily off shore and then back on over the next couple of hours.




That's right, it won't be magic. Think of it as turbulence, like behind a tractor/trailer. AAMOF watch Gustav's "track" erupt in rain
as Ike nears it. And, yes cutting across Gustav is very reasonable, except the 4 Models have Ike veering into LA. And, again, Ike won't cross Gustav and then veer into Lake Charles. The turn will come after Ike crosses Fay's track and before it reaches Gustav's.

Ike has already moved out of the NHC's 800 Advisory by continuing West. Just beginning to come out into the Caribbean. It should turn w/in hours.

IMHO. Ike should be turning as it gets into water.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/wv-l.jpg

Go Hogs!


hogrunr
(Weather Guru)
Mon Sep 08 2008 11:45 AM
Re: The NHC forecast is only good for 3 day, after 72 hrs a sharp short wave will pick IKE up

The 11am EDT edition is out...from the forecast discussion:

DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE STILL FORECASTING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TO MOVE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IN A COUPLE OF DAYS
RESULTING IN SOME WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF IKE.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE IKE TO TURN TEMPORARILY TO THE NORTHWEST
WITH A REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED. ALL MODELS FORECAST THE
SHORTWAVE TO BYPASS IKE TO THE NORTH...AND ARE NOW IN MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT THAT IKE WILL TURN SLIGHTLY WESTWARD IN ABOUT 3 DAYS.

Just wanted to add in as well that Ike's eye is now back over water.


scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Mon Sep 08 2008 12:08 PM
Re: The NHC forecast is only good for 3 day, after 72 hrs a sharp short wave will pick IKE up

It wouldnt surprise me if IKE makes its landfall in SE TX just near Corpus Christi by Saturday morning! That's not my forecast but it wouldnt surprise me. Everything keeps shifting west and these troughs are July type having little- no impact on anything under 25dgN.

Neverwinter
(Registered User)
Mon Sep 08 2008 12:11 PM
Re: The NHC forecast is only good for 3 day, after 72 hrs a sharp short wave will pick IKE up

And it moves NW. Maybe, just maybe it will hit TX. It's too early to tell though...

hurricane expert
(Really Not an Expert)
Mon Sep 08 2008 12:17 PM
Re: The NHC forecast is only good for 3 day, after 72 hrs a sharp short wave will pick IKE up

I dont have a landfall location as of right now its pretty hard to say. But if i was to put a landfall location i will put it from new orleans right along somewhere in the gulf east coast !

docrod
(Weather Watcher)
Mon Sep 08 2008 12:17 PM
Re: The NHC forecast is only good for 3 day, after 72 hrs a sharp short wave will pick IKE up

Just back in checking on things - Monroe County ended the evac order as of noon today - sorry if this has been posted elsewhere ... http://www.monroecounty-fl.gov/Pages/MonroeCoFL_EmerNews/S020FFDD3

it's been a long night.


hogrunr
(Weather Guru)
Mon Sep 08 2008 12:21 PM
Re: The NHC forecast is only good for 3 day, after 72 hrs a sharp short wave will pick IKE up

Quote:

I dont have a landfall location as of right now its pretty hard to say. But if i was to put a landfall location i will put it from new orleans right along somewhere in the gulf east coast !




I know you are just projecting, but this is basically ignoring everything that the NHC is saying, especially from the last update from them.

Now to wait for the 1pm EDT update and the 12z model updates.

Also, Ike has grown in size quite considerably. He's gone from 45 mile Hurricane force and 150 mile TS force, to 60 mile hurricane force and 200 mile TS force.


Bev
(Weather Hobbyist)
Mon Sep 08 2008 12:54 PM
Re: The NHC forecast is only good for 3 day, after 72 hrs a sharp short wave will pick IKE up

Quote:

Quote:


Also, Ike has grown in size quite considerably. He's gone from 45 mile Hurricane force and 150 mile TS force, to 60 mile hurricane force and 200 mile TS force.




Several days ago, one of the models predicted Ike would increase substantially in size. Anyone remember which one it was?


doug
(Weather Analyst)
Mon Sep 08 2008 01:06 PM
Re: The NHC forecast is only good for 3 day, after 72 hrs a sharp short wave will pick IKE up

IKE's core lost some structure while over the island and that will expand the wind field. IKE is off shore now about 21.2 and 78.9 No more land until he crosses western Cuba. The microwave loop on the main page took IKE from 110kts to 80kts while traversing the island. Land interaction will keep too much re-intensification from occurring. Nothing ahead of it yet to cause a more northerly slide in the track. Not slowing down so there is still a good stream of air pushing him along.

Ed in Va
(Weather Master)
Mon Sep 08 2008 01:11 PM
Re: The NHC forecast is only good for 3 day, after 72 hrs a sharp short wave will pick IKE up

New GFS shows a significant shift to the south. Now much more Brownsville than Gal/Houston.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cg...;hour=Animation


Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Mon Sep 08 2008 01:34 PM
Re: The NHC forecast is only good for 3 day, after 72 hrs a sharp short wave will pick IKE up

The global models (GFS, ECMWF, Canadian) for several days have consistently forecast Ike to grow considerably in size once it reaches the Gulf, though they have disagreed with themselves and each other on the track. Whether or not it becomes a large and intense hurricane, or simply a large cyclone that is not particularly intense, will depend in part on what kind of shape it is in upon reaching the Gulf.

craigm
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Sep 08 2008 02:21 PM
Re: The NHC forecast is only good for 3 day, after 72 hrs a sharp short wave will pick IKE up

Looks like gfs is abandoning it's earlier solution and is trending west - UKMET also with NHC following suit. The shortwave tough that everyone has been posting about looks like it will be long gone by the time Ike could be influenced by it.

Ed DunhamAdministrator
(Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator)
Mon Sep 08 2008 02:30 PM
Ike Could Grow In Size

It was the GFS - and Dr Avila commented on this in the Saturday 11PM Discussion bulletin from NHC:

"HOWEVER...I AM A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENT THAT IN FIVE DAYS...THERE
WILL BE A LARGE HURRICANE IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO."

Cheers,
ED


hogrunr
(Weather Guru)
Mon Sep 08 2008 02:49 PM
Re: The NHC forecast is only good for 3 day, after 72 hrs a sharp short wave will pick IKE up

Quote:

New GFS shows a significant shift to the south. Now much more Brownsville than Gal/Houston.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cg...;hour=Animation




The GFDL and HWRF models both have it going to Houston/Gal with their 12z runs. The past 24 hours has really narrowed down the strike zone towards West LA/Texas Coast from pretty much the entire gulf coast like it had been, I'd say the next 24 hours will give us more of a consensus between the Houston/Gal area vs. the brownsville area. I'll be waiting


Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Mon Sep 08 2008 02:51 PM
Re: The NHC forecast is only good for 3 day, after 72 hrs a sharp short wave will pick IKE up

The models still disagree on their individual tracks, but there seems to be good agreement on the general scenario of Ike taking a "stair-step" path into the Gulf and eventually into the western Gulf Coast. Ike is currently moving west, but should turn more to the NW tonight and tomorrow as a shortwave slightly weakens the ridge to the north. When that shortwave moves away, the ridge will build back and Ike should turn back to the west. Finally, another trough approaching the central and southern Plains in 4-5 days should weaken the ridge again, causing another (and presumably final) turn to the NW and N.

If that scenario holds, that will mean at least 2 and maybe 3 changes in direction for Ike before final landfall, which obviously makes the track forecast complicated and uncertain. The 12Z GFS eventually tracks Ike into the south TX coast before it gets pulled to the north, while the 12Z GFDL and HWRF turn Ike to the NW over the Gulf before reaching the coast, resulting in landfall on the upper TX coast. The 12Z ECMWF is in between with landfall over the middle TX coast.

It looks like conditions will be very favorable for intensification over the Gulf, but Ike seems to have lost its inner core and currently seems to be more of a very large tropical storm than a hurricane right now. It will need to re-establish its inner core to take advantage of conditions over the Gulf. Ike's state of organization when it approaches the loop current in the south central Gulf will be crucial in determining how strong it will get.


hogrunr
(Weather Guru)
Mon Sep 08 2008 04:14 PM
Re: The NHC forecast is only good for 3 day, after 72 hrs a sharp short wave will pick IKE up

It is interesting to see how much of a consensus there is within the two different tracking groups right now.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200809_model.html

NOGAPS, GFDL, and HWRF are all aiming straight at Houston, whereas the NGFDL, UKMET, and GFS have Ike aimed straight at Corpus Christi.

The interesting thing is, the three models aimed further south, I believe, took this route due to Ikes current Westerly jog instead of the originally forecasted NW movement by now. However, if you look at the GFDL, and HWRF models on this site:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

They had predicted this Westerly jog with their current track.


Ed in Va
(Weather Master)
Mon Sep 08 2008 04:16 PM
Re: The NHC forecast is only good for 3 day, after 72 hrs a sharp short wave will pick IKE up

Looks like Ike is trying to make a comback if he manages to all, or most, of his center over water:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-wv.html


EBinTX
(Weather Watcher)
Mon Sep 08 2008 04:18 PM
Re: Ike Could Grow In Size

I've been watching both Cuban radar and various sat loops on and off through the day. It appears that Ike is still tracking due west along 21.2 °. From both radar, and the visible and water vapor sat loops it sure looks like Ike has lost most of its density, and the rain bands have certainly lost intensity through the day. The IR loop appears very broken. It looks like there is still good circulation, but nowhere near as much within the storm. I would think a lot of energy has been lost.

hogrunr
(Weather Guru)
Mon Sep 08 2008 04:19 PM
Re: The NHC forecast is only good for 3 day, after 72 hrs a sharp short wave will pick IKE up

Quote:

Looks like Ike is trying to make a comback if he manages to all, or most, of his center over water:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-wv.html




If you turn the tracking points on that WV image also, you can see that Ike is still right on the projected path and is actually going to arrive at his 0000 UTC projected location earlier than they had predicted.


JMII
(Weather Guru)
Mon Sep 08 2008 04:29 PM
Re: The NHC forecast is only good for 3 day, after 72 hrs a sharp short wave will pick IKE up

The GFDL and at times the UKMET has been doing pretty good with Ike, so take a look at those. Now with that said - every single time the track updates its SW of where the NHC projected. Just the other day they had the storm tracking thru the Keys now its SOUTH of Cuba. So at this point whatever they put up as a track I bet its goes south of that. Amazing how they can be right on the money with Gustav at 5 days, yet so far off with this storm. Also goes to show why you need to watch these things and not panic (or relax) just because you are (or are NOT) in the 5 day cone... just too many variables that far out to forecast landfall.

hogrunr
(Weather Guru)
Mon Sep 08 2008 04:35 PM
Re: The NHC forecast is only good for 3 day, after 72 hrs a sharp short wave will pick IKE up

Well landfall is just now 5 days out...so I guess we'll find out how accurate they are by if this sticks with Houston, or goes elsewhere.

Anyone have any input on how the flare up of convection in the SW GOM will affect Ike, if any at all?


craigm
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Sep 08 2008 04:48 PM
Attachment
Re: Ike Could Grow In Size

Quote:

I've been watching both Cuban radar and various sat loops on and off through the day. It appears that Ike is still tracking due west along 21.2 °. From both radar, and the visible and water vapor sat loops it sure looks like Ike has lost most of its density, and the rain bands have certainly lost intensity through the day. The IR loop appears very broken. It looks like there is still good circulation, but nowhere near as much within the storm. I would think a lot of energy has been lost.




Ike's cloud tops have warmed due to the pass over land He still has plenty of energy and his footprint is huge as evidenced by this microwave pass. Once he is back over warm open water and can draw from all quadrants one can only speculate on intensity, only it won't be from lack of structure. I personally think factors regarding intensity now almost trump landfall position because Ike could potentially be the strongest storm yet this year.


hogrunr
(Weather Guru)
Mon Sep 08 2008 04:51 PM
Re: Ike Could Grow In Size

Quote:

Quote:

I've been watching both Cuban radar and various sat loops on and off through the day. It appears that Ike is still tracking due west along 21.2 °. From both radar, and the visible and water vapor sat loops it sure looks like Ike has lost most of its density, and the rain bands have certainly lost intensity through the day. The IR loop appears very broken. It looks like there is still good circulation, but nowhere near as much within the storm. I would think a lot of energy has been lost.




Ike's cloud tops have warmed due to the pass over land He still has plenty of energy and his footprint is huge as evidenced by this microwave pass. Once he is back over warm open water and can draw from all quadrants one can only speculate on intensity, only it won't be from lack of structure. I personally think factors regarding intensity now almost trump landfall position because Ike could potentially be the strongest storm yet this year.




I definitely agree with you on that since Ike has taken the more southern route over water along the coast instead of over land. The latest IR shows a flare up of convection on the "half" of the eye that is over water right now, this should atleast keep Ike from weakening much further until he can pass over Cuba.

The other thing to watch for is that the data that the NHC will be using in their 5pm EDT update can be a little deceiving since as far as intensity is concerned because some of it will be from the recon data that came in about 2 hours ago.


EBinTX
(Weather Watcher)
Mon Sep 08 2008 05:28 PM
Re: The NHC forecast is only good for 3 day, after 72 hrs a sharp short wave will pick IKE up

Looks like Ike has begun that NW movement, just off the south coast, and am beginning to see increasing convection in the IR.

Daytonaman
(Weather Watcher)
Mon Sep 08 2008 06:56 PM
Re: The NHC forecast is only good for 3 day, after 72 hrs a sharp short wave will pick IKE up

Long time lurker who occasionally chimes in for an answer or understanding. The flair up in the BoC looks as though it maybe being picked up by the trough in the Plains. Would this feature tagging along for a ride on the trough affect the ridge creating a greater weakness in it?
Love this site, have learned so much from all of you.


hurricane expert
(Really Not an Expert)
Mon Sep 08 2008 07:07 PM
Re: The NHC forecast is only good for 3 day, after 72 hrs a sharp short wave will pick IKE up

Well if this movement is really N/W and the storm tracks into cuba i would have to say the models are off right now cause they projected this strom to stay in the water longer.

hogrunr
(Weather Guru)
Mon Sep 08 2008 07:13 PM
Re: The NHC forecast is only good for 3 day, after 72 hrs a sharp short wave will pick IKE up

actually looking at the IR loop from here:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-ir2.html

and turning on the tracking points, the eye is currently right underneath one of the tracking points. And it got there about an hour and a half too early as well.


hurricane expert
(Really Not an Expert)
Mon Sep 08 2008 07:17 PM
Re: The NHC forecast is only good for 3 day, after 72 hrs a sharp short wave will pick IKE up

Its making landfall right now again

hogrunr
(Weather Guru)
Mon Sep 08 2008 07:29 PM
Re: The NHC forecast is only good for 3 day, after 72 hrs a sharp short wave will pick IKE up

not trying to disagree with you necessarily, but I don't see it coming on land again yet...I guess I'll have to wait and see what the overall movement trend is.

EBinTX
(Weather Watcher)
Mon Sep 08 2008 08:19 PM
Re: The NHC forecast is only good for 3 day, after 72 hrs a sharp short wave will pick IKE up

By vis & short wave IR sat images and radar I have the coastline splitting the center. The models are increasingly looking like somewhere between Corpus and Brownsville. Unless the NHC adjusts the forecast track before Wednesday, I'll come into the 36 hour cone on the dirty side, which will create local mayhem.

hogrunr
(Weather Guru)
Mon Sep 08 2008 08:29 PM
Re: The NHC forecast is only good for 3 day, after 72 hrs a sharp short wave will pick IKE up

This may or may not be the same situation, but I remember with Gustav, just a little while before he came across the western end of Cuba, the models started showing a shift in track a little more to the west (western LA/East Texas area) but the NHC was hesitant to shift their track. They kept saying in the forecast discussions that they were keeping their track to the East of the consensus. Now the models are showing a little further South on some of them, and the NHC only slightly moved their track and is saying they are keeping their track to the north side of the consensus...I guess we'll see after Ike crosses Western Cuba if the NHC keeps their track steady and if the models shift back.

EBinTX
(Weather Watcher)
Mon Sep 08 2008 10:00 PM
Re: The NHC forecast is only good for 3 day, after 72 hrs a sharp short wave will pick IKE up

All the key models have moved landfall south. The current NHC forecast track is one of the northernmost. My guess is that either at the 11 pm update tonight or the 5 AM tomorrow they nudge the landfall down to Corpus Christi.

hogrunr
(Weather Guru)
Mon Sep 08 2008 10:09 PM
Re: The NHC forecast is only good for 3 day, after 72 hrs a sharp short wave will pick IKE up

Ike has taken a slight westerly jog, he's almost right back on track with the NHC path and more importantly, the entire eye is back over water.

I think the timing with the edge of the high pressure center that is going to be over the Western GOM and the trough that will be coming down from the US is going to determine if Ike goes straight into TX or has a N/NW turn before landfall.


native
(Weather Guru)
Mon Sep 08 2008 10:11 PM
Re: The NHC forecast is only good for 3 day, after 72 hrs a sharp short wave will pick IKE up

While there is no arguing that the models have shifted a bit southward. We should not be so quick as to second guess the preofessionals at the NHC. They have done and I'm sure will continue to do, a bang up job given the incredibly difficult and intricate nature(s) of their job(s).

Let's all remember how many here were saying they didn't see the "west" component to Gustav when he was less than 150 miles off shore...and sure as "poo" what happened?? He went west and spared NOLA (to the detriment of others) a direct hit.

Let's all not be so quick to be or pretend to be anything more than what we are.....weather enthusiasts.

(EBinTX...this was not directed at you. You were just the last person to post when I hit respond..but I see someone's got in before mine. So please, don't think this post was directed at you.)


native
(Weather Guru)
Mon Sep 08 2008 10:16 PM
Re: The NHC forecast is only good for 3 day, after 72 hrs a sharp short wave will pick IKE up

And in all fairness....a couple of days ago I said I was not sold on the more southerly track (south of cuba track) and...well looky what happened. See what I get for second guessing the professionals?? A mouth full of foot!

rayboat
(Registered User)
Mon Sep 08 2008 10:32 PM
Re: The NHC forecast is only good for 3 day, after 72 hrs a sharp short wave will pick IKE up

http://files.wtoc.com/weather/satellite/fy1d/rgba_1.jpg

IKE @ 6:05 pm courtesy of WTOC channel 11 Savanna GA. downloaded from Peoples Republic of China Fengyun(Wind and Cloud) 1D satellite. Pretty awesome!!


EBinTX
(Weather Watcher)
Tue Sep 09 2008 12:59 AM
Re: The NHC forecast is only good for 3 day, after 72 hrs a sharp short wave will pick IKE up

Quote:

While there is no arguing that the models have shifted a bit southward. We should not be so quick as to second guess the preofessionals at the NHC. They have done and I'm sure will continue to do, a bang up job given the incredibly difficult and intricate nature(s) of their job(s).
. . .

(EBinTX...this was not directed at you. You were just the last person to post when I hit respond..but I see someone's got in before mine. So please, don't think this post was directed at you.)



Second guessing the pro's is at least half the fun of being an enthusiast.

And I will agree, they do incredibly well at a job I would not want. No matter what they do they will have at least a million people telling them afterwards they did it wrong.


hogrunr
(Weather Guru)
Tue Sep 09 2008 08:49 AM
Re: The NHC forecast is only good for 3 day, after 72 hrs a sharp short wave will pick IKE up

The 12z updates are out for several of the models, and the general consensus move was northward. Now the NHC (who had been on the northern side of the consensus) is on the southern side. We'll see if this trend continues or not.

http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/picservice.asp?t=m&m=09&av=2008998


EBinTX
(Weather Watcher)
Tue Sep 09 2008 08:58 AM
Re: The NHC forecast is only good for 3 day, after 72 hrs a sharp short wave will pick IKE up

The South Florida Water Management District has a great summary of the models that includes NOGPS, HWRF and the GFS Ensemble (AEMN). From that view it looks like NHC is about middle of the envelope. The one that concerns me is UKMet - by NHC's acknowledgement it "can be quite skillful".

http://tinyurl.com/5qd7on


hogrunr
(Weather Guru)
Tue Sep 09 2008 09:31 AM
Re: The NHC forecast is only good for 3 day, after 72 hrs a sharp short wave will pick IKE up

It's interesting you said that because so far actuallly UKMET has been the most accurate one on Ike. It is the only one that had him originally dipping down so far south of Cuba and is the original one to pick this more southern route that the track is on right now. Alot of times it seems like it picks up on things that others don't at an earlier time.

Also, last night the NHC said that no Global models had picked up on the ridge coming down from the US over days 3-5 so they weren't paying attention to the Regional model that still had it in play. Well now, the UKMET ( a global model) has picked up on it, so we'll see if the pattern holds with the UKMET picking up on the features earlier than others.


scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Tue Sep 09 2008 10:33 AM
Re: The NHC forecast is only good for 3 day, after 72 hrs a sharp short wave will pick IKE up

The Ukmet will adjust with the rest of the models as IKE will move towards S TX. Houston wont get anything but maybe a band come up.Its too early to say forsure though. Its still 3-4 days from TX-MX!

Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Tue Sep 09 2008 10:43 AM
Re: The NHC forecast is only good for 3 day, after 72 hrs a sharp short wave will pick IKE up

I would not be surprised to see the model consensus bounce back to the north a little bit. Of the global models, the GFS and NOGAPS show little or no interaction with the approaching trough in 3-4 days, while the ECMWF, UKMET, and Canadian models do show some interaction, causing a somewhat further north track. The ECMWF is the best model overall, so I would hesitate to pick against it if it came to that. We'll see if there is any better model consensus among the global models today.

mcgowanmc
(Weather Hobbyist)
Tue Sep 09 2008 11:31 AM
Re: The NHC forecast is only good for 3 day, after 72 hrs a sharp short wave will pick IKE up

The usual suspects are flipping to the North.

Watch GFDL flip in the next update.


hogrunr
(Weather Guru)
Tue Sep 09 2008 12:01 PM
Re: The NHC forecast is only good for 3 day, after 72 hrs a sharp short wave will pick IKE up

Some reasoning from the most recent NHC forecast discussion:

THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY NEAR THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE ECMWF AND UKMET MODELS SHOWING A
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH COMING OUT OF THE ROCKIES THAT INDUCES A RIGHT
TURN ON DAY 4. THE GFS AND NOGAPS HAVE A DIFFERENT PATTERN...WITH
MORE RIDGING EXTENDING WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF IKE THAT KEEPS THE
HURRICANE MOVING BASICALLY WESTWARD. THE ECMWF HAS DONE VERY WELL
WITH IKE THUS FAR...AND HAS RELATIVELY HIGH SKILL IN FORECASTING
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERNS AT THE LONGER RANGES. OUT OF RESPECT FOR
THIS MODEL THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND TO
THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND IS PRETTY CLOSE TO THE
DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. BEGINNING TOMORROW AT 12Z THE NOAA G-IV
JET AIRCRAFT WILL BE SAMPLING THE ENVIRONMENT OF IKE TO ASSIST IN
THE DETERMINATION OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS.


Neverwinter
(Registered User)
Tue Sep 09 2008 12:07 PM
Re: The NHC forecast is only good for 3 day, after 72 hrs a sharp short wave will pick IKE up

It is indeed moving through the West. Don't you think it will be nice if we have a debate or poll about what or where it will make it's landfall?

edit- Not here. Not ever. Especially at 5 days out. Things will change... just watch~danielw


hogrunr
(Weather Guru)
Tue Sep 09 2008 12:21 PM
Re: The NHC forecast is only good for 3 day, after 72 hrs a sharp short wave will pick IKE up

Only if we have the ability to change our vote as many times as the NHC can

Ed in Va
(Weather Master)
Tue Sep 09 2008 02:07 PM
Re: The NHC forecast is only good for 3 day, after 72 hrs a sharp short wave will pick IKE up

As someone suggested, the GFDL track has indeed shifted north http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.c...;hour=Animation
On the other hand, how much faith can you place in a model that has Ike at hurricane strength over MO in 168 hours?
Gonna come as a real shock when the Hurricane Watch is posted there!


hogrunr
(Weather Guru)
Tue Sep 09 2008 02:14 PM
Re: The NHC forecast is only good for 3 day, after 72 hrs a sharp short wave will pick IKE up

Well there are two different aspects to the models...the NHC seems to keep the intensity aspect and the track aspect as two seperate beasts. So alot of times they will take the track forecast from some and completely ignore it's intensity forecast.

The 12z models are out for all models at that FSU link posted above, they all have a shift northward, so all of the major models are at or north of Corpus Christi now.

As wide as this storm currently is, it will still have great affects to Houston/ Galveston even if it doesn't take a direct hit.


Raymond
(Weather Guru)
Tue Sep 09 2008 02:14 PM
Re: The NHC forecast is only good for 3 day, after 72 hrs a sharp short wave will pick IKE up

Now all the modells (12:00 UTC runs of GFS, GFDL, HWRF, UKMET, CMC) show the northward turn during day 4 and move Ike to the middle of the Texas coast, somewhere between Corpus Christi and Galveston. They all pick up the solution already provied by the ECMWF at 0:00 UTC. So there is really a very good agreement between the dynamical modells on this track.

hogrunr
(Weather Guru)
Tue Sep 09 2008 03:22 PM
Re: The NHC forecast is only good for 3 day, after 72 hrs a sharp short wave will pick IKE up

Ike's eye is just starting to emerge over the GOM and he's in pretty good shape for having just spent so much time bouncing off of Cuba. He is also moving faster than the NHC has predicted so far. He is going to be arriving at his next tracking point a couple of hours early. We will probably see a decent amount of strengthening by tonight at the 11pm EDT update and certainly by tomorrow morning. He seems to still be on track.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Tue Sep 09 2008 03:32 PM
Re: The NHC forecast is only good for 3 day, after 72 hrs a sharp short wave will pick IKE up

I live on the Tx and LA border, what chances do you think we will get hit?

hogrunr
(Weather Guru)
Tue Sep 09 2008 03:47 PM
Re: The NHC forecast is only good for 3 day, after 72 hrs a sharp short wave will pick IKE up

well we can see from the recent huge swings that nothing is out of the question yet. It was pointed right at Houston, then Brownsville, now back up to Corpus/Houston area...while you are probably more likely to get the after affects than the direct hit, it would be smart to keep waatching.

hogrunr
(Weather Guru)
Tue Sep 09 2008 05:13 PM
Re: The NHC forecast is only good for 3 day, after 72 hrs a sharp short wave will pick IKE up

The 5pm EDT update is out

THERE HAS BEEN A SIGNIFICANT NARROWING IN THE SPREAD OF THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS...WITH THE GFS...GFDL...AND NOGAPS ALL SHOWING
LESS RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF IKE LATE IN THE PERIOD AND SHIFTING
THEIR TRACKS NORTHWARD TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE UKMET AND
ECMWF RUNS. IKE IS NOW EXPECTED TO RECURVE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED NORTHWARD ON DAYS FOUR AND FIVE...BUT
ALL OF THE BETTER DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE EVEN FARTHER TO THE RIGHT.


So they have shifted the landfall point very close to San Antonio Bay, or close to Port Lavaca, and according to the forecast this is conservative compared to the rest of the models. Basically they are following the ECMWF model exactly now, since it has been accurate so far on Ike.

There are also extremely favorable winds and atleast 3 warm eddies that he is supposed to pass near or through on his current track. The GFDL and HWRF intensity models have Ike reaching cat4 by landfall. His speed has slowed to 10mph, the speed over the next 48 hours is very important to the forecast track. In other words, the slower Ike goes, the further away from shore he will turn North.


Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Tue Sep 09 2008 05:40 PM
Re: The NHC forecast is only good for 3 day, after 72 hrs a sharp short wave will pick IKE up

Ike did rather well going over cuba twice... the small inner core still together... the surface and mid-upp level centers didn't get misplaced that much...i think that has a lot to do with how big Ike is... which to me is a negative factor now... i think ike will make a run up to Cat 4 and or maybe 5 here in the next day or so... hitting the loop current in hours ahead... i also think now that the storms projected landfall will slowly move east and north with time. Will need some good G-IV data in the models to pick out a landfall point.. There seems to be a good chance that Ike could make landfall as a major Hurricane.

OrlandoDan
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Sep 09 2008 06:39 PM
Re: The NHC forecast is only good for 3 day, after 72 hrs a sharp short wave will pick IKE up

It is possible that we could see rather rapid re-intensification. The system looks like it is in very good shape with good outflow and an intact inner core. I suppose explosive re-instensification is not out of the realm of possibility.

hogrunr
(Weather Guru)
Tue Sep 09 2008 06:55 PM
Re: The NHC forecast is only good for 3 day, after 72 hrs a sharp short wave will pick IKE up

Quote:

It is possible that we could see rather rapid re-intensification. The system looks like it is in very good shape with good outflow and an intact inner core. I suppose explosive re-instensification is not out of the realm of possibility.




I definitely agree...the key to me was how low his pressure stayed (968) even with him only being a cat 1.


Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Tue Sep 09 2008 07:34 PM
Re: The NHC forecast is only good for 3 day, after 72 hrs a sharp short wave will pick IKE up

The inner core is still there, but it is not in good shape at the moment. The convection is weak and recon shows the winds in the inner core are actually weaker than the winds further removed from the center in an outer wind maximum. In its present state of organization, it is not likely to rapidly intensify. It may rapidly intensify at some point in the future, but there could be a rather slow period of reorganization first before it is able to take advantage of the favorable environment in the Gulf.

There is some very dry air apparent on the water vapor image over the central Gulf, but the size of Ike's circulation should keep the interior of the storm relatively insulated from it.


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Tue Sep 09 2008 08:44 PM
Re: The NHC forecast is only good for 3 day, after 72 hrs a sharp short wave will pick IKE up

Ike's moved a bit further north (wobble perhaps?) than the earlier forecast track, which probably means a shift toward northern Texas later, but we'll see. Watching the wobbles isn't really important for huge changes, but it does impact the landfall point.

metwannabe
(Weather Hobbyist)
Tue Sep 09 2008 08:59 PM
Re: The NHC forecast is only good for 3 day, after 72 hrs a sharp short wave will pick IKE up

Sure looks healthy on iR sat. Eye made quick re-appearance. Could this mean that it could regain strength even faster than what is forecast and what, if any implications on it's track would that have? IF it intensifies very quickly and IF it becomes a deeper system could it feel the effects of the passing sw trough more, causing a more ploeward motion initially before turning back westward?

hogrunr
(Weather Guru)
Tue Sep 09 2008 10:10 PM
Re: The NHC forecast is only good for 3 day, after 72 hrs a sharp short wave will pick IKE up

Quote:

Ike's moved a bit further north (wobble perhaps?) than the earlier forecast track, which probably means a shift toward northern Texas later, but we'll see. Watching the wobbles isn't really important for huge changes, but it does impact the landfall point.




And the important thing to remember is, because of the 18z models that came out, they won't reflect this northward wobble as far as their landfall track, so the 11pm EDT NHC update probably won't either, I wouldn't doubt if the NHC track moves slightly southward at 11.


flahurricane
(Weather Hobbyist)
Tue Sep 09 2008 10:19 PM
Re: Ike jogging back to the NW?

Its going to take some time for the winds to catch up to the falling pressure. I'm expecting a Cat 4 at landfall in Northeastern Texas. Just a guess.

ShanaTX
(Storm Tracker)
Wed Sep 10 2008 01:27 AM
Re: Ike jogging back to the NW?

Quote:

Its going to take some time for the winds to catch up to the falling pressure. I'm expecting a Cat 4 at landfall in Northeastern Texas. Just a guess.




NE Texas is Texarkana-ish. Landlocked.

If you're thinking of where Texas meets Louisiana in the Gulf, that's the Upper Texas Coast or if you include inland cities, Southeast Texas...

Don't know why, but the Texas coast is divided up Lower/Middle/Upper.


Storm Cooper
(Moderator)
Wed Sep 10 2008 01:56 AM
Re: Ike jogging back to the NW?

The middle Texas coast looks to be the target...Thanks ShanaTX for pointing a few things out regarding the Texas coast line. The latest NHC discussion makes reference to the GFS and GFDL models.... but the last ECMWF run is right in line with the NHC track...or the NHC track is in line with the ECMWF. The Euro has verified very well lately.

scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Wed Sep 10 2008 02:47 AM
Re: Ike jogging back to the NW?

I'm still saying landfall will be between Corpus Christie and Brownsville. Only was off by .5 with Fay and Gustav 1dg (from 5 days out) and Hanna directlandfall. I need to keep this years landfall perfect within 1 dg LOL. I'm just waiting for a day where all the models say 1 thing, and oops he/she heads off in a totally different direction than the models indicate.

Raymond
(Weather Guru)
Wed Sep 10 2008 04:37 AM
Re: Ike jogging back to the NW?

I bet on the middle Texas coast. Second place for the lower and third for the upper coast. And alltogether I bet on .... Texas!!!

EBinTX
(Weather Watcher)
Wed Sep 10 2008 05:44 AM
Re: Ike jogging back to the NW?

My guess - Port Aransas,

hogrunr
(Weather Guru)
Wed Sep 10 2008 07:57 AM
Re: Ike jogging back to the NW?

The dangerous thing about the turn North now is that the NHC has it occurring before it makes landfall, which can make for interesting landfall. It could pull a Gus and scrape along the coastline for a while. Speed of Ike is crucial here, we'll have to see what he does.

DMFischer
(Weather Hobbyist)
Wed Sep 10 2008 08:59 AM
Re: Ike jogging back to the NW?

I was wondering about Ike's slow down. He is not stalling, but compared to his clip at 14 mph for days, this slow down has me wondering. One of the things I have found so amazing since starting to learn about canes here is the ERC. Could Ike's slowdown be a combination of his starting an ERC when crossing Cuba, and now struggling to do so now? Ike is a beautiful cane, as much as you want to ever call something with so much destructive power beautiful. When he strengthens he has that buzz saw appearance with a clearly defined eye that is tight.
I also noticed something on the Atlantic WV...Is Josephine trying to make a come back?


hogrunr
(Weather Guru)
Wed Sep 10 2008 09:16 AM
Re: Ike jogging back to the NW?

I think what is making Ike slow down right now is he hasn't quite reached the steering currents that are along the southern side of the ridge that is building over the north GOM. As he gets closer to this, he is forecast to pick up speed. This is something to watch carefully, if Ike stays at a slower speed, even for just a few hours, that will allow the trough weakness to move further East and will thus make Ike turn North sooner than it is currently projected.

I just found this cool website for anyone in the Houston/Galveston area. Especially if Ike turns more this way, this gives you an idea of the historical maximum wind speeds that your location has seen.

http://houstonhidefromthewind.org/


EBinTX
(Weather Watcher)
Wed Sep 10 2008 09:25 AM
Re: Ike jogging back to the NW?

Quote:

The dangerous thing about the turn North now is that the NHC has it occurring before it makes landfall, which can make for interesting landfall. It could pull a Gus and scrape along the coastline for a while. Speed of Ike is crucial here, we'll have to see what he does.




The appearance of the turn before landfall is simply a matter of connecting the dots on 12 hr points. If you look at the discussion carefully the forecasters note that most models have the turn coming after landfall. Selfishly, for me this would be a good thing.

The latest run on HWRF appears to have dropped back south and delayed the turn as well. It is beginning to look like the NHC is again on the north edge of model consensus.

Locally, this is a tough call. We evacuated from Rita 36 hours before landfall as the forecast track at that time was about as close to directly over our head as could be determined. At that time they were still saying Cat 4, maybe 5. Twelve hours later they moved the track 60 miles east, and 12 hours after that another 60 miles east. If Ike were to move 100 - 120 miles east in the last 36 hours it could be real interesting for our area. The good news if there is any is the Cat 2 outlook now. The bad news is the potential for stronger.

The mandatory evacuations for the low-lying coastal towns, like 10-12 miles away, started here this morning, with voluntary for the remainder of the county. It's already starting to be a zoo as folks react. Schools closed for the rest of the week as we found out this morning at 6:30 am.


hogrunr
(Weather Guru)
Wed Sep 10 2008 09:44 AM
Re: Ike jogging back to the NW?

The model that still concerns me for your/my area is the ECMWF model. Even the NHC commented on how accurate it has been with Ike and it still has it coming up kind of the same path as Alicia back in 1983, again basically over your head there in Lake Jackson. Basically it agrees with the NHC path, except it has it making a much sharper north turn as it gets to the coast line. The models all take a pretty good divergence at 36 hours, and I think your example of Rita is a great one to show just how easy it is for things to change at the last minute.

The 1pm CDT update will be a good gauge at the speed and track, one of the tracking points on the NOAA radar is set for that time today, so we will be able to see if Ike has varied his speed or track any at that point.


Prospero
(Weather Watcher)
Wed Sep 10 2008 10:18 AM
Interesting wooble to the NE?

Looking at the Key West 248 miles radar with 40 frames (paid membership), it looks like the center of circulation is taking a shift to the NE. I imagine just a wobble, but interesting to me.

Weatherunderground Key West Radar


Neverwinter
(Registered User)
Wed Sep 10 2008 10:29 AM
Re: Ike jogging back to the NW?

Quote:

The 1pm CDT update will be a good gauge at the speed and track, one of the tracking points on the NOAA radar is set for that time today, so we will be able to see if Ike has varied his speed or track any at that point.




I agree. Hope we can see it more clearly.

Anyway, here's some amazing pictures from space:
http://www.boston.com/bigpicture/2008/09/hurricanes_as_seen_from_orbit.html


hogrunr
(Weather Guru)
Wed Sep 10 2008 11:37 AM
Re: Ike jogging back to the NW?

10am CDT update is out now...basically steadily strengthening and growing in size. The 7 am update had Ike making landfall at about San Antonio Bay on the TX coast. While the landfall point is almost the same in the 10 am update, the last second norther jog to get it to that landfall point is gone. In other words, Ike's track has shifted North further out into the GOM. The piece of the track between 7 am Friday and 7 am Saturday is the section that shifted North overall.

There is still a definite split in the most recent models with the GFS on the west side, and the UKMET and ECMWF on the Eastern side. Also the peak intensity has increased.


mcgowanmc
(Weather Hobbyist)
Wed Sep 10 2008 11:49 AM
Re: Ike jogging back to the NW?

Quote:

10am CDT update is out now...basically steadily strengthening and growing in size. The 7 am update had Ike making landfall at about San Antonio Bay on the TX coast. While the landfall point is almost the same in the 10 am update, the last second norther jog to get it to that landfall point is gone. In other words, Ike's track has shifted North further out into the GOM. The piece of the track between 7 am Friday and 7 am Saturday is the section that shifted North overall.

There is still a definite split in the most recent models with the GFS on the west side, and the UKMET and ECMWF on the Eastern side. Also the peak intensity has increased.




And once Ike starts bending to the N, he won't stop. And if Ike's turning on Friday AM, why will
it turn to the W on Thurs AM?

If I lived in Houston I would be scheduling a long weekend starting this PM.


Neverwinter
(Registered User)
Wed Sep 10 2008 12:08 PM
Re: Ike jogging back to the NW?

They are starting to curve Ike north as it gets closer to the Texas coast. This tells us the ridge over the NE Gulf will steer the system NW at first and the ridge behind it will not be as strong. Hurricanes, and low pressures systems like to find a weakness in a ridge/HIGH pressure and follow the path of least resistance. It's like the two highs, one over SE Texas and the other over NE Gulf, are mountains. The Valley is in between and that spot right now is the Central and North Gulf Coast.

The update doesn't seem different to the last one...
!


hogrunr
(Weather Guru)
Wed Sep 10 2008 12:13 PM
Re: Ike jogging back to the NW?

Quote:

Quote:

10am CDT update is out now...basically steadily strengthening and growing in size. The 7 am update had Ike making landfall at about San Antonio Bay on the TX coast. While the landfall point is almost the same in the 10 am update, the last second norther jog to get it to that landfall point is gone. In other words, Ike's track has shifted North further out into the GOM. The piece of the track between 7 am Friday and 7 am Saturday is the section that shifted North overall.

There is still a definite split in the most recent models with the GFS on the west side, and the UKMET and ECMWF on the Eastern side. Also the peak intensity has increased.




And once Ike starts bending to the N, he won't stop. And if Ike's turning on Friday AM, why will
it turn to the W on Thurs AM?

If I lived in Houston I would be scheduling a long weekend starting this PM.




I agree with you completely...I'm hoping my work shuts down for Friday so I can ship my family over to San Antonio to stay with family. My boss and I have made a bet...if we work on Friday, I owe him lunch

Wow Ike has taken a nice little N wobble...the 1pm CDT update I think is going to be very interesting for the Upper TX coast

Very interesting look at the steering currents here...if you step through the last couple of slides you can see how close Ike is to reaching the weakness (edge) of the ridge to it's north...I am definitely predicting a more northerly track than the NHC is so far.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/movies/wg8dlm1/wg8dlm1java.html


jf
(Verified CFHC User)
Wed Sep 10 2008 12:55 PM
Re: Forecast Points

For the past 4 hours it appears as though IKE is drifting NNW and slowing down. Do any one of you see the same pattern?

hogrunr
(Weather Guru)
Wed Sep 10 2008 01:25 PM
Re: Forecast Points

Yes, and the NHC saw the same thing basically. They said that although Ike's eye has only been slightly drifting that the overall system was still moving WNW at 8mph. I would agree with you though and say his most recent movements have more of a NNW direction than WNW.

Also, the 12z model tracks are starting to come out. The GFS has moved up the TX coast to be more inline with the group now instead of being the outlier down close to Brownsville, we'll have to watch the rest of the models as they come out over the next 30 min or so.


EBinTX
(Weather Watcher)
Wed Sep 10 2008 01:26 PM
Re: Forecast Points

Ike appears right on track with the last forecast to me.

The 12:00 Z UKMET is just in and ... it moved landfall south to cross right at the point of the last HHC track forecast. With both UKMET and HWRF having moved landfall well south, this places the current forecast track on the northern edge of the the most noteworthy models, and well north of the GFS ensemble which has landfall down by Baffin Bay. It also appears that the turns are being delayed. If the short-term current track holds over the next 3+ hours, an adjustment of the track between tomorrow AM and landfall more towards Corpus Christi or even just south would be very reasonable.

It will be interesting to see where the watches go up -- should start tomorrow afternoon.


EBinTX
(Weather Watcher)
Wed Sep 10 2008 01:34 PM
Re: Ike jogging back to the NW?

Quote:

I agree with you completely...I'm hoping my work shuts down for Friday so I can ship my family over to San Antonio to stay with family. My boss and I have made a bet...if we work on Friday, I owe him lunch




Everyone needs to make their own choice. This morning at 4 am I changed our evac plans form San Antonio to Houston in the Galleria area. If I lived in Spring I wouldn't even be considering evacuating, and especially not to San Antonio. I was there for Rita. That city is going to be packed and the roads a mess with every one fleeing from Brownsville to Victoria. Plus, that's likely to be to rain and inland storm hotspot after landfall.

Good Luck !


hogrunr
(Weather Guru)
Wed Sep 10 2008 01:36 PM
Re: Ike jogging back to the NW?

Well this is again only if it takes a more direct aim at us, if it stays with it's current track or even a little further north, we won't. If it hits in your area, we may, especially if he makes it to cat4 or almost.

Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Wed Sep 10 2008 01:47 PM
Re: Ike jogging back to the NW?

The 12Z GFDL has shifted north with the GFS and now runs Ike over Galveston in about 60-66 hours. Before anyone freaks out about that, keep in mind that is still on the north (and fast) side of guidance. Model solutions will probably continue to bounce back and forth for awhile, given the subtle factors that will be affecting its path.

hogrunr
(Weather Guru)
Wed Sep 10 2008 01:50 PM
Re: Ike jogging back to the NW?

Tropical Weather Statements were just issued for all of the coastal counties expected to be affected in TX. Several counties/zip codes with mandatory evacs as well as some with voluntary. Expected storm surge with the current track si 15-18 feet in matagorda bay area and a little less as you go up the coast towards Houston with Galveston Bay expecting 4-8 feet of surge.

Again, this will change if the track does.

http://www.weather.gov/view/validProds.php?prod=HLS&node=KHGX


EBinTX
(Weather Watcher)
Wed Sep 10 2008 01:57 PM
Re: Ike jogging back to the NW?

Quote:

The 12Z GFDL has shifted north with the GFS and now runs Ike over Galveston in about 60-66 hours. Before anyone freaks out about that, keep in mind that is still on the north (and fast) side of guidance. Model solutions will probably continue to bounce back and forth for awhile, given the subtle factors that will be affecting its path.




Yep - just saw that. That sure changes things. GFDL has switched sides with UKMET & HWRF. I can't wait to see what they do to with the ensemble, AEMN. The NHC track is now in the middle of the pack. Those NHC folks sure know their work.


hogrunr
(Weather Guru)
Wed Sep 10 2008 02:01 PM
Re: Ike jogging back to the NW?

1pm CDT is out...Ike is at 100mph winds now, he's looking much healthier on the sat's now. The track is shifted north again, from San Antonio Bay to Matagorda Bay near Port Lavaca. This next 12 hours or so is going to be very interesting...

Thought this was interesting from a probability standpoint...notice that from just south of Corpus all the way up to the Houston area all have the exact same probability of having 50 knot winds....this thing is still so wide open!

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/151325.shtml?50wind120#contents

The HWRF 12z is out now also, and while not as pronounced of a move as the GFDL, it still shifted a little north, just above the NHC track.


scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Wed Sep 10 2008 02:16 PM
Re: Ike jogging back to the NW?

IKE is on a path to near Corpus Christi still. My idea has been from Brownsville-Corpus Christi, and now since its 2.5 days out its time to make it official with the data I see from Models, etc. My forecast is slightly further up from just south of Corpus Christi (near Santa)-Matagorda TX. The ridge over Mexico is having a hard time adjusting eastward and will probably not be strong enough to extend fully with the ridging over the northern gulf coast. This will cause IKE to move more WNW instead of almost due west. Landfall late Friday night or Saturday morning as a Cat 3 is still expected. I'm still 50-50 on Houston getting TS force winds, but they should get gusts over that.

BTW as a joke the GFDL has IKE imbedding with a cold front and strengthening near Lake Erie as a Cat 2... How funny is that. (Feedback problems on IKE)


hogrunr
(Weather Guru)
Wed Sep 10 2008 02:38 PM
Re: Ike jogging back to the NW?

Quote:

IKE is on a path to near Corpus Christi still. My idea has been from Brownsville-Corpus Christi, and now since its 2.5 days out its time to make it official with the data I see from Models, etc. My forecast is slightly further up from just south of Corpus Christi (near Santa)-Matagorda TX. The ridge over Mexico is having a hard time adjusting eastward and will probably not be strong enough to extend fully with the ridging over the northern gulf coast. This will cause IKE to move more WNW instead of almost due west. Landfall late Friday night or Saturday morning as a Cat 3 is still expected. I'm still 50-50 on Houston getting TS force winds, but they should get gusts over that.

BTW as a joke the GFDL has IKE imbedding with a cold front and strengthening near Lake Erie as a Cat 2... How funny is that. (Feedback problems on IKE)




Sorry I'm a little confused, matagorda is north of corpus...I think you meant to leave out the highlighted part up above? And I agree with your placement, possibly even a little further up, but I don't think it will further south than that.

Just another data point, Ike's current track has his eye following an 86* eddy almost all the way to the coast...that's alot of warm water for him to have access too.


Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Wed Sep 10 2008 03:09 PM
Re: Ike jogging back to the NW?

The intensity forecast for Ike is even less straight-forward than the track forecast. Ike continues to have a very large, broad, and atypical circulation for a hurricane, with recon recently finding hurricane force winds over 100 miles from the center (those winds being stronger than any winds near the center). Ike also appears to be entraining some mid-level dry air into its circulation from the surrounding environment.

The good news is that Ike is very unlikely to rapidly intensify in its current state of organization. Storms like this seem to have a tough time consolidating after becoming "unwound" like Ike did over Cuba. Fitful bursts of modest intensification should be the case in the short term. If Ike can overcome the mid-level dry air surrounding it, upper-level winds and SSTs may be favorable enough for Ike to eventually consolidate into more of a classic hurricane.

The bad news about Ike's size is that. even if it stays as broad and unfocused as it is now, a very large area could end up being affected by hurricane-force winds and storm surge, much more than you would expect with a typical hurricane.


EBinTX
(Weather Watcher)
Wed Sep 10 2008 03:16 PM
Re: Ike jogging back to the NW?

My wife just noted that this is getting amusing. At an estimated 66 hrs from landfall, the entire Texas coastline is in the cone.

If the county judges get excited we could be trying to break our own largest US evacuation from Rita. How about 5 million people scrambling on the highways looking for shelter ?


scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Wed Sep 10 2008 03:37 PM
Re: Ike jogging back to the NW?

No I said it pretty clear I think.. from Santa (which is just south of Corpus Christi) to Matagorda. Strength of the ridging will deteremine IKEs landfall!

RedCrosser
(Registered User)
Wed Sep 10 2008 04:03 PM
Re: Ike jogging back to the NW?

Ike is the "size of Texas!" --lol...in all seriousness it is a very large storm.. and I can only hope that keeps it from consolidating and from any rapid intensification. Currently, that seems to be the case. *fingers crossed*

EBinTX
(Weather Watcher)
Wed Sep 10 2008 04:14 PM
Re: Ike jogging back to the NW?

Quote:

No I said it pretty clear I think.. from Santa (which is just south of Corpus Christi) to Matagorda. Strength of the ridging will deteremine IKEs landfall!




Baffin Bay would be a more appropriate landmark since the town of Santa is about 25 miles inland.

The middle of your forecast range is about where I put my guess - Port Aransas. But that was before the 12Z GFDL release, which still has me baffled. About all the other models moved to about Port Lavaca, and then GFDL moves back toward Galveston. Very strange.


EBinTX
(Weather Watcher)
Wed Sep 10 2008 04:18 PM
Re: Ike jogging back to the NW?

If my eyes aren't fooling me, Ike is north of the short-term forecast track by about three hours. That may move the forecast further up the coast.

May be leaving tomorrow. This won't be any fun.


hogrunr
(Weather Guru)
Wed Sep 10 2008 04:24 PM
Re: Ike jogging back to the NW?

I see what you see EBinTX, he is definitely north of the track right now.

hogrunr
(Weather Guru)
Wed Sep 10 2008 05:03 PM
Re: Ike jogging back to the NW?

the 4pm CDT is out, another shift northward coming in almost completely north of matagorda bay now and the intensity is increased to a 4 from a 3...EBinTX, I would be packing my bags right about now for you.

Also, Hurricane watch now in effect from Cameron Louisiana, to Port Mansfield, TX


ShanaTX
(Storm Tracker)
Wed Sep 10 2008 06:35 PM
Re: Ike jogging back to the NW?

Evacuation will be messy because there will be a lot of people leaving late. I hope people realize that if they're in Galveston they should stay in Houston because conditions will not be good in most places they'll be going to...

(Houston, Austin and San Antonio are all within 100 miles of the projected landfall)


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Wed Sep 10 2008 07:33 PM
Re: Ike jogging back to the NW?

Looks like Ike is getting itself together quickly and might be much stronger than forecast to be during the next update

EBinTX
(Weather Watcher)
Wed Sep 10 2008 07:39 PM
Re: Ike jogging back to the NW?

The current forecast has it at a Cat 2 about 90 miles inland at Halletsville -- 104 miles from San Antonio, 115 miles from Houston -- and headed straight for Austin 74 miles away. This has more than a few similarities to Katrina, such as size and forecast strength. The storm surge damage along the coast east of its path could be as severe.

With the current path ~50 miles west of our home, we will be leaving tomorrow. Hope my boat off Galveston Bay makes it.


hogrunr
(Weather Guru)
Wed Sep 10 2008 07:40 PM
Re: Ike jogging back to the NW?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-ir2.html

If you go there and turn on the tracking points and the NWS Fronts, you can see the weakness starting to build in the ridge off to the NW of Houston...

Just a little further explanation, in case I wasn't clear (someone wrote and asked me about it )

The blue and red ridge line that appears on that map when you turn on the NWS Fronts check box, had previously been completely horizontal (parallel with the gulf coast), whereas now you can see the "hump" in it over East TX where the trough is starting to create the weakness that Ike should turn north into.

Also, the 7pm CDT is out and Ike is holding strong at 100mph, with a very low pressure level (947mb). There are now 4 models pointing right at the Houston/Galveston area, including the GFDL. We'll see if this trend holds through the night or if it changes again by morning


EBinTX
(Weather Watcher)
Wed Sep 10 2008 08:41 PM
Re: Ike jogging back to the NW?

Quote:

The current forecast has it at a Cat 2 about 90 miles inland at Halletsville -- 104 miles from San Antonio, 115 miles from Houston -- and headed straight for Austin 74 miles away. This has more than a few similarities to Katrina, such as size and forecast strength. The storm surge damage along the coast east of its path could be as severe.

With the current path ~50 miles west of our home, we will be leaving tomorrow. Hope my boat off Galveston Bay makes it.




Just out - our City has ordered a "mandatory" evacuation beginning at 10 PM tonight.


mcgowanmc
(Weather Hobbyist)
Wed Sep 10 2008 09:18 PM
Re: Ike jogging back to the NW?

Quote:


http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/movies/wg8dlm1/wg8dlm1java.html





Nice site. And no West turn in the latest NHC.
and Ike still hasn't turned from its "Coriollis Effect"track, close to Gustav's.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/wv-l.jpg

Good luck.


ShanaTX
(Storm Tracker)
Wed Sep 10 2008 10:57 PM
Re: Ike jogging back to the NW?

Ohhh... not good for Galveston and Houston! The new NHC shows Ike just south of Galveston...

Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Wed Sep 10 2008 11:10 PM
Re: Ike jogging back to the NW?

Keep in mind that the lines between forecast points do not necessarily represent the expected path of the storm. Drawing a straight line between the 48 and 72 hour forecast points makes it appear the forecast track is closer to Galveston, but the storm is likely to make more of a gradual curve between 48 and 72 hours, bringing it onshore further south and then arcing back into northeast Texas by 72 hours.

That is not to say that a further north landfall is not possible. Ike is a large storm and Galveston is still well within the cone and the Hurricane Watch and everyone in the area should be taking appropriate action at this point.


ShanaTX
(Storm Tracker)
Wed Sep 10 2008 11:23 PM
Re: Ike jogging back to the NW?

Thank you

I realized that after I looked at a better map.

Ike is one weird hurricane....

How long can it have that double eyewall thing anyway?


EBinTX
(Weather Watcher)
Wed Sep 10 2008 11:25 PM
Re: Ike jogging back to the NW?

Okay, so that means that the actual path may be about 10-20 miles west of my house rather than the 10 miles east that the new forecast track would imply. The straight-line connect-the dots put the track just east of Freeport, which is but about 9 miles from where I am sitting. Galveston would be severely affected being just on the east side of the track. My revised evacuation plan puts me right under the track about 50-55 miles inland.

Again - 36 hours before Rita made landfall the forecast indicated landfall very, very close to that presently forecast for Ike. Twelve hours later it moved 60 miles east to the Bolivar peninsula, and 12 hours after that it moved another 60 miles east. The bottom line is we still don't have a really good feel for exactly where it's going to fall and the TX coast has warnings up nearly all of its length. This is going to be a very, very messy evacuation. Hope CNN and TWC are ready for it.


EBinTX
(Weather Watcher)
Wed Sep 10 2008 11:57 PM
Re: Ike jogging back to the NW?

Okay, at something like 48 hrs before landfall, here's my revised guess .. Ike will make landfall somewhere between Port Bolivar and Sabine Pass -- High Island is about midway - and then run pretty much over Beaumont / Port Arthur. Final answer !

Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Thu Sep 11 2008 12:10 AM
Re: Ike jogging back to the NW?

Ike's double eyewall structure could persist indefinitely, but given the small size of the inner eyewall, it seems more likely that the outer eyewall will take over at some point. If there is an eyewall replacement, that could induce some temporary weakening, but that may be less of an issue with Ike's large size. Given Ike's unusual structure and the possibility of eyewall replacements, its future intensity is even more difficult to predict than usual. It is almost certain to remain a very large storm, though.

hogrunr
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 11 2008 12:13 AM
Re: Ike jogging back to the NW?

Just as a side note, the people in N. Houston are going nuts already. The gas stations near my house only have premium left, there was a line of cars in the lumber section at Lowes, the shelves at walmart were starting to look bare, and I even saw a lady buy 10 bags of ice from the drive thru window at mcdonalds...

(A reminder to attempt to stay on topic - this would have been more appropriate in the Disaster Forum under a new title.)


scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Thu Sep 11 2008 12:27 AM
Re: Ike jogging back to the NW?

I really dont see IKE getting higher than a moderate Cat 3 with winds around 120-125mph. Reason is, its a Big Storm. Usually big storms like IKE cant consolidate their winds in combination with its pressure. Nonetheless, A Cat 3 is a serious issue, no one needs 120mph winds coming ashore!

hogrunr
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 11 2008 12:36 AM
Re: Ike jogging back to the NW?

Quote:

I really dont see IKE getting higher than a moderate Cat 3 with winds around 120-125mph. Reason is, its a Big Storm. Usually big storms like IKE cant consolidate their winds in combination with its pressure. Nonetheless, A Cat 3 is a serious issue, no one needs 120mph winds coming ashore!




Especially when those winds do spread out so far...as Ike comes ashore (on the currrent track) pretty much all of Houston and even some suburbs north of Houston will be getting sustained hurricane force winds.

They have updated this website finally to reflect more recent information...it now shows even the north side of houston to be getting sustained winds in the mid to upper 80 mph's. If the intensity goes up, then obviously so will that.


hogrunr
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 11 2008 07:04 AM
Re: Ike jogging back to the NW?

Just watched the most recent visible sat and Ike seems to have reformed a new eyewall, as well as having a good deal of new convection around that new eyewall...Ike is almost 1000 miles across now. I wouldn't be surprised if Ike strengthens by the 10 am CDT update, and maybe evacs for the Houston area soon to follow.

I'm getting worried about how long we will be without power here now....

Now the 0600z UKMET and GFS models are out, they have moved further inline with the NHC right now than there 0000z models. Also note, as with Gustav, the NHC had their 5 day track right on.


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Thu Sep 11 2008 08:37 AM
ECMWF Called this landfall back on labor day weekend

Hello all. Don't post much here, but I do actively track hurricanes - I live in Tampa Bay! Using the link below the ECMWF model was predicting this landfall track (fairly close) all the way back on labor day weekend when Ike was barely a tropical storm. Interesting. I don't hear this model used a lot, I see a lot of focus on GFDL, GFS, and HWFI (I think). With the exception of I believe 2 model runs where it brought Ike into east Florida, the ECMWF held strong to a Houston - New Orleans land fall until Sept. 7th where it seemed to drop it, according to the link below? Question: is the model usually reliable? Was it just lucky? It really seemed to out perform other models for this storm early in the game. We all need to pray for the people of Texas and be mindful of the verbiage we use on this forum.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/...s!2008082712!!/


Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Thu Sep 11 2008 09:43 AM
Re: ECMWF Called this landfall back on labor day weekend

A couple of interesting notes about the 06Z runs, the GFDL has shifted back south of Galveston near the NHC track, and both the GFDL and HWRF show very little change in intensity (pressure-wise) until landfall. Of course, the max wind speed could increase even if the pressure doesn't fall, but the storm would have to contract its wind field to do that.

The ECMWF is the probably best model in the world. It is highly regarded by weather forecasters. Forecasters still usually prefer the model consensus at longer time ranges, though, which is why they were a little slow to initially bite off of the ECMWF solution for Ike.


Evan Johnson
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 11 2008 11:57 AM
Re: ECMWF Called this landfall back on labor day weekend

the latest wind steering product shows us a good idea of steering.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm1.GIF

and given the storm is so massive in width, im not sure if a frontal boundries, at this point can change much of anything. this is just my opinion, but things are very favorable for a texas coast impact. i dont really see the prediction shifting much more east.


Neverwinter
(Registered User)
Thu Sep 11 2008 12:42 PM
Re: ECMWF Called this landfall back on labor day weekend

Quote:

the latest wind steering product shows us a good idea of steering.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm1.GIF

and given the storm is so massive in width, im not sure if a frontal boundries, at this point can change much of anything. this is just my opinion, but things are very favorable for a texas coast impact. i dont really see the prediction shifting much more east.




I agree. And I guess it really shows in the models...


hogrunr
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 11 2008 03:31 PM
Re: ECMWF Called this landfall back on labor day weekend

Ike is looking much better right now...a little better definition on the eye, but more importantly, he is breathing much better out of his West side. He had been very lopsided with only 2 quadrants really brreathing, maybe 3, and now all 4 seem to be doing so. This may be enough to help him strengthen a little, lets just hope his winds don't catch up to his pressure level.

Right now we are looking at 94mph winds at our home as he passes directly over according to this:

http://houstonhidefromthewind.org


Raymond
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 11 2008 03:50 PM
Re: ECMWF Called this landfall back on labor day weekend

All modells are in a quite good agreement about the future track and landfall area. It shoould be not far to the SW of the Houton-Galveston-area, which is of course bad new, because they would get a remarkably high surge there.
The HWRF ist quite funny: All the time it had predicted a 900 hPa-monster and in the last two runs it has flipped totally to a TS-landfall!


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Thu Sep 11 2008 05:36 PM
Re: ECMWF Called this landfall back on labor day weekend

None of the Gulf storms this year have developed in intensity as anticipated. A few years ago, if it made it to the Gulf then it was Everyman for himself and God for us All. I am not complaining, but the intensity forecast have been off for Gulf storms...

hogrunr
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 11 2008 07:10 PM
Re: ECMWF Called this landfall back on labor day weekend

The 5pm EDT update moved the path slightly East (puts me on the west side of the storm) but the 18z GFS and UKMET just came out and both have it going to my West, if the GFDL comes out with it's 18z and also has it in the same spot it did before, the NHC track should also shift back slightly west. But we are also talking about a matter of maybe 20 miles, much less than the error on the 36 hour track.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Thu Sep 11 2008 07:55 PM
Re: ECMWF Called this landfall back on labor day weekend

The latest WV loop appears to be showing an eye in the last few frames but is to the left of the current forecast tract. A small cricle that could be an eye keeps popping up from time to time but is all over the place relative to the forcasted track.This wobble watching may be playing tricks on my eyes...Anyone else seeing this? I'm beginning to think the circle is not a true eye or the COC but is inside the COC and making the wobbles appear to be more pronunced. Yes? No? Maybe?

LoisCane
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Thu Sep 11 2008 08:01 PM
Re: ECMWF Called this landfall back on labor day weekend

If you have followed imagery of Ike over time his eye has often been on the left, so far to the left it looked open a few times despite the large cloud cover that was round and circular. Something about the strangeness of this storm vs movement. He is also speeding up a little I think and that should also make him look a bit stranger. He is leaning to the left wnw/nw towards the coast line like he is in a hurry.

8pm shows he is now in fact moving 12 mph forward speed not 10, that trend should continue.


Boomer
(Registered User)
Fri Sep 12 2008 08:13 AM
Landfall?

A lurker amateur question:
If Ike doesn't have a well defined eye, what is considered landfall? When does it occur?


Wxwatcher2
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Sep 12 2008 08:33 AM
Re: Landfall?

There is still an "eye" center of circulation if you will. Just can't see it on the SAT pictures.

I think Ike is the strangest looking hurricane I've ever seen. Just never got ramped up in the Gulf
which is a good thing. It appears that Ike just spread out which hampered it's strenghening.


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Fri Sep 12 2008 02:50 PM
Re: Forecast Points

What not to do in ike:


ShanaTX
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Sep 12 2008 03:23 PM
Re: Landfall?

oops... wrong forum!

Ed in Va
(Weather Master)
Fri Sep 12 2008 03:40 PM
Re: Landfall?

Good live TV link for Houston http://abclocal.go.com/ktrk/livenow?id=6384042
The local met just said that Ike looks to be strengthening and may already be a Cat 3 with 120 mph winds. He's also thinking that the track may be moved a bit south on the next update.


Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Fri Sep 12 2008 03:58 PM
Re: Landfall?

Flight-level winds have supported cat 3 for awhile now, but SFMR obs and the dropsondes that have made it all the way to the surface have yet to confirm cat 3 winds. Unless that happens, or the flight-level winds increase even more, they will probably not bump the intensity up to cat 3.


Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center