MikeC
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(Admin)
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Tue Sep 02 2008 07:58 AM
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Josephine Lounge
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This is the lounge for TD#10 (Josephine), right now I think the most likely fate of this is the classic fish spinner, but there are some models bending it back more west, the NHC is also leaning toward moving more west, so the jury is still out .
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scottsvb
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(Weather Master)
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Wed Sep 10 2008 02:43 PM
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Re: Josephine Lounge
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Just thought I open up this lounge and say Josephine's rements are still out there around 17.5 N and 58W as of Weds afternoon. Some models want to pick up on her but its pretty iffy right now. She has a flare up enhanced by the upper low to her west. If she can gain more convection and get a better defined circulation in a day or 2, she might be a threat to the bahamas!
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scottsvb
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(Weather Master)
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Thu Sep 11 2008 02:09 PM
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Re: Josephine Lounge
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Josephine or 91L heading to Florida. Now in what strength, its hard to tell. Most models have a strong wave- a moderate tropical storm. Alot of dry air might be a problem for this to become more, but not sure yet.
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Ed in Va
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(Weather Master)
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Thu Sep 11 2008 02:22 PM
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Re: Josephine Lounge
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What models are you looking at? What I can find shows two going south of FL (maybe one grazing the tip) and two out to sea.
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scottsvb
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(Weather Master)
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Thu Sep 11 2008 03:06 PM
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Re: Josephine Lounge
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Um,, CMC, GFS,GFDL,HRWF,Nogaps,Ukmet, and most dynamical models! LOL, now again, most have this as a strong wave, some show up to a moderate T.S ala (ships,GEM)
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Robert
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(Weather Analyst)
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Thu Sep 11 2008 03:22 PM
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Re: Josephine Lounge
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I hope they keep the name Josephine! I have been watching this area and well id say there is 50% of her contribution. The developing part that is. Had there been no wave to entrain i think the remants would not have fired back. Further there is the argument well had there been no remanints then the wave would have developed so pick your poision.
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Re: Josephine Lounge
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The NHC Tropical Cyclone Model Output Maps site is showing Invest 91 as a Low Pressure System. See attached.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~acevans/models/
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Ed in Va
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(Weather Master)
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Thu Sep 11 2008 09:17 PM
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Re: Josephine Lounge
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Well, that really nails the track. I guess we're going to have to wait awhile for anything definitive.
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DianneT
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(Registered User)
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Thu Sep 11 2008 10:04 PM
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Re: Josephine Lounge
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Hi! I'm new here. Here's my question. Since Josephine was once a TS and then not a TS, if she forms again, will she still have the name Josephine or the next name on the list? Thanks! 
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Re: Josephine Lounge
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i dont believe the storm will. once it leaves status of a tropical storm and the nhc center stops tracking it and it comes back it will most likely be issued a new name. so long as ike is still lurking this new tropical low will be a weather-maker for florida. latest wind steering product here: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm1.GIF . i personally dont think there is a enough time for this thing to get any stronger then a tropical depression, but who knows.
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Re: Josephine Lounge
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This area showing a bit of interesting convection firing today. Looking at the models for this, it could head right across Florida. I know all attention is focused on IKE, but does anyone have a read on whether this is going to develop/expand/stay the same?
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Re: Josephine Lounge
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right now it looks like the leftovers of josephine are having a hard time of doing much of anything. there is no forward movement right now it is kind of lurking which can be a bad thing if it were somewhat organized however, that is not the case. i will be watching it all day to see if it musters up enough steam to stay organized and begin a westwardly or north westardly movement whatsoever.
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scottsvb
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(Weather Master)
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Sat Sep 13 2008 01:16 PM
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Re: Josephine Lounge
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Upper Low has been hindering this for days now. The ULL never went SW as predicted by the NHC. Chance of this becoming a TD is less than 10% in the near term.
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Re: Josephine Lounge
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only one model has this thing spinning up into a tropical storm within the next 24 hours. the closest it will get is borderline tropical depression before it makes any kind of landfall. id sooner concentrate on the area of showers out to the east that actually have time to develope into something.
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