| Docster |
| (Registered User) |
| Fri Sep 05 2008 10:49 PM |
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Spaghetti" Model Plots for the Atlantic Basin
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What Spaghetti Model(s) "tools" do you follow, based on your "experience(s)", or the top 5 Spaghetti models you place your confidence in?
| weathernet |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Sep 06 2008 12:41 AM |
Re: Spaghetti" Model Plots for the Atlantic Basin
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There are just so many different models, and even here there is some subjectivity in which models are most preferred. Those that I find to be the most useful and those that I believe NHC has greatest faith in, include GFS, UK, EURO, BAMD, GFDL, HWRF. Not sure if all of these are displayed on each spagetti plot map. EURO is typically only found at their site alone. A few that I would almost always ignore include CMC, CLP, LBAR, and BAMS. Without going into an extensive explanation, I hope this helps.
Take care,
Andy
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Sat Sep 06 2008 02:15 AM |
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Re: Spaghetti" Model Plots for the Atlantic Basin
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Quote:
What Spaghetti Model(s) "tools" do you follow, based on your "experience(s)", or the top 5 Spaghetti models you place your confidence in?
The short answer is none, some, all, and very few some of the time.
If you are trying to reinvent the wheel and out-forecast the NHC (we all do it!) it can be a learning experience, and fun. But if you are merely trying to make your hurricane preparedness plans around models, my advice is always DON'T! Go with the official forecasts from the NHC, your local National Weather Service, the main page here on CFHC, and some of the reputable commercial weather forecasting services only.. some of these could be your better local TV mets, and I always highly recommend TWC. When it comes to forecasting and explaining hurricanes, Dr. Lyons is pretty hard to beat.
| Docster |
| (Registered User) |
| Sat Sep 06 2008 03:21 AM |
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Re: Spaghetti" Model Plots for the Atlantic Basin
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Quote:
There are just so many different models, and even here there is some subjectivity in which models are most preferred. Those that I find to be the most useful and those that I believe NHC has greatest faith in, include GFS, UK, EURO, BAMD, GFDL, HWRF. Not sure if all of these are displayed on each spagetti plot map. EURO is typically only found at their site alone. A few that I would almost always ignore include CMC, CLP, LBAR, and BAMS. Without going into an extensive explanation, I hope this helps.
Take care,
Andy
Thanks, your reply it was very helpful to me. I got to much Spaghetti (information) with so little Meat Sauce (time) to ponder over it....
Regards,
Doc
(who's still interested in hearing other opinions)
| Docster |
| (Registered User) |
| Sat Sep 06 2008 03:26 AM |
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Re: Spaghetti" Model Plots for the Atlantic Basin
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Indeed!
Thanks for your reply.
Regards,
Doc
| Neverwinter |
| (Registered User) |
| Wed Sep 10 2008 03:21 PM |
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Re: Spaghetti" Model Plots for the Atlantic Basin
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Quote:
There are just so many different models, and even here there is some subjectivity in which models are most preferred. Those that I find to be the most useful and those that I believe NHC has greatest faith in, include GFS, UK, EURO, BAMD, GFDL, HWRF. Not sure if all of these are displayed on each spagetti plot map. EURO is typically only found at their site alone. A few that I would almost always ignore include CMC, CLP, LBAR, and BAMS. Without going into an extensive explanation, I hope this helps.
Take care,
Andy
Very nice info! And I think it can also be based on your experience with that model?
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Wed Sep 10 2008 03:36 PM |
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Re: Ike jogging North?
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This is probably the best place for this post, but the last frame of satellite pictures I've seen from several different sources gave me the impression that IKE is north and east of the last fix a bit.
Anybody else seeing that? I think it must be an illusion as there does not seem to be any reason for that to be occurring as a trend.
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Wed Sep 10 2008 03:45 PM |
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Re: Ike jogging North?
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Take it back! not happenning. Sorry