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Igor Forecast Lounge
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I wonder if Igor will follow the same paths as the other storms or get a little closer to land ?
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Jasonch
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(Weather Watcher)
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Wed Sep 08 2010 06:19 PM
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Re: Tropical Storm Igor Forms in Eastern Atlantic
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if it goes north of the islands do you think it will recurve.
(Post moved to the appropriate Forum - long range stuff goes here.)
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Ed Dunham
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(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
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Wed Sep 08 2010 06:55 PM
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Igor Forecast Lounge
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Ay 08/15Z, NHC upgraded Invest 91L to Tropical Storm Igor located south of the Cape Verde Islands - close enough to the islands that a Tropical Storm Watch was issued for some of the CV islands. Igor is expected to move west to west northwest over the next few days and eventually attain hurricane strength.
This is the place to post your best guess as to what Igor will become and where it will go in the long term.
ED
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Ed Dunham
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(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
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Sun Sep 12 2010 06:11 PM
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Re: Igor Forecast Lounge
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Well the 12/12Z GGEM Model run is certainly interesting - it has Igor missing the weakness in the ridge.
Raleigh 12Z GGEM Model Loop
ED
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Ed in Va
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(Weather Master)
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Sun Sep 12 2010 06:40 PM
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Re: Igor Forecast Lounge
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I'm not familiar with this model...what is its track record? What track implications are there for his rapid intensification today?
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Unregistered User
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(Unregistered)
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Sun Sep 12 2010 07:21 PM
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Re: Igor Forecast Lounge
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Gee Igor has to be watched closely for us here in florida huh
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allan
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(Weather Master)
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Sun Sep 12 2010 08:03 PM
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Re: Igor Forecast Lounge
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Looking at the water vapor, it appears to me that Igor should start moving more west-northwest to northwest around 20N, 55W. I think Igor takes a NW turn do to the second trough, then as a ridge builds, Igor may steer WNW south of Bermuda. After that, It's up in the air what else could happen. Another trough may recurve it, that being the best scenario to look at right now, or a weak trough lifts it north along the East Coast.
The forecast for Igor believe it or not is actually a VERY complicated forecast. The two troughs appear to me to be too far north to really recurve it, the third one which is coming out of Canada in a few days is the one that is supposed to do it all the way. The question is when and where. I believe Igor will move south of Bermuda, then start turning north from there. Also where will the high be? If the high shifts east and strengthens, Igor will become a problem for the southeast. I'm really skeptical of it recurving "harmlessly" out to sea at this time. I need a few more days to see how far west Igor can make it before the turn occurs. This is a forecast of mine and is posted in the forecast lounge.
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Re: Igor Forecast Lounge
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How will Td#12 affect Igor?
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Re: Igor Forecast Lounge
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According to the forecast maps at 2pm Friday both Igor and Td#12 seem to be catching up with each other and paralelling. What effect will this have on Igor?
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MichaelA
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(Weather Analyst)
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Mon Sep 13 2010 05:23 PM
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Re: Igor Forecast Lounge
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No effect on Igor being the much stronger system. I'd expect Julia to be sheared by Igor's outflow much like Fiona was by Earl.
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WeatherNut
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(Weather Master)
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Mon Sep 13 2010 09:47 PM
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Re: Igor Forecast Lounge
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Checking out the 200-700mb steering layer it seemed the ridging that was NW of Igor was weakening thus allowing a direction change. Now looking at an update of the steering layer there is again ridging building NW of Igor. I dont see a change in direction today. Neither of these troughs are as strong or far south as the ones that have re-curved Danielle, Earl, or Fiona. Will be interesting to see since most models have been predicting an imminent wnw turn that is still not happening. Igors forward speed has slowed a bit but with the passing of the first trough it should move along again
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ftlaudbob
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(Storm Chaser)
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Tue Sep 14 2010 06:35 AM
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Re: Igor Forecast Lounge
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NHC must be going a little crazy now.Igor should have turned more NW by now.At 11pm it is still going due west.
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