Ed Dunham
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(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
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Sun Sep 26 2010 02:28 PM
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TD16 Forecast Lounge
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A weak low pressure system is evident in the western Caribbean Sea well to the southeast of Cozumel, Mexico, near 18.4N 84.6W at 26/18Z. Most of the convection is located well to the east of the center. The system is currently moving to the northwest, however as it develops better structure upper level winds should prompt more of a northward motion toward western Cuba. The system is under northwesterly windshear so only slow development seems reasonable and initially the system could take on more of a subtropical appearance. SSTs in the area are about 28.5C. Since the system appears rather weak, the current center may only be transient in nature.
Some of the models move a moderate system out of the western Caribbean Sea northward across western Cuba on Tuesday, over south Florida on Wednesday and off the Florida east coast on Thursday. Given the slow evolution of this system, while the track seems reasonable, the timing is still subject to reconsideration. If the system moves slower, a stronger system could develop. At this time there are no real indicators that point to the development of a strong cyclone and over the past 24 hours most of the models have backed off on intensity. Since the timeframe for any necessary preparation is only a few days away, this potential development area needs to be monitored closely by residents in the Yucatan, western Cuba and southern Florida.
ED
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Unregistered User
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(Unregistered)
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Sun Sep 26 2010 03:07 PM
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Re: Western Caribbean Forecast Lounge
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ed, thanks for starting a discussion on this potential tropical system. i think matthew distracted both the models, and now that he is out of the picture floridians need to concentrate on the very real threat of a slow moving tropical system potentially rapidly intensifying under near favorable conditions as it is drawn up from the south. the timing and positioning of this system may be perfect for it to suprise everyone and undergo rapid cyclogenesis before slamming the south half of the Florida peninsula as a short-lived strong tropical storm or hurricane next week.
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Re: Western Caribbean Forecast Lounge
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NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
237 PM EDT SUN SEP 26 2010
A 16Z HPC/TPC COORDINATION CALL FOSTER SOME FORM OF TROPICAL LOW INTO FL LATE WEEK/WEEKEND WITH A UNCERTAIN STRENGTH/SPEED...BUT DEEP LEAD MOISTURE.
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WeatherNut
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(Weather Master)
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Sun Sep 26 2010 03:18 PM
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Re: Western Caribbean Forecast Lounge
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pressures seem to be falling (or trending that way) all over the Western Caribbean at every buoy station I have looked at (only 3 working)
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Unregistered User
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(Unregistered)
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Sun Sep 26 2010 03:19 PM
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Re: Western Caribbean Forecast Lounge
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a moisture-rich air mass in the favored region for tropical cyclogenesis in late sept/oct, SST's at or near seasonal peaks, and a relatively low-shear environment...
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Wingman51
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(Weather Guru)
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Mon Sep 27 2010 01:13 PM
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Re: Western Caribbean Forecast Lounge
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GFS (usually overly aggressive) shows an interesting period ahead for Florida and the Southeast coast - - 3 or 4 storms in the next 14 days - - Is it time??
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MichaelA
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(Weather Analyst)
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Mon Sep 27 2010 01:17 PM
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Re: Western Caribbean Forecast Lounge
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With a front (or remaining trough) moving into Central/South-central FL during the near term, I'm thinking that the NGP 00Z run may have a decent handle on this - developing what may be a baroclinic system that rides up the trough followed later by another, possibly more tropical, low forming in the same area.
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allan
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(Weather Master)
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Mon Sep 27 2010 02:56 PM
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Re: Western Caribbean Forecast Lounge
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The situation is complicated, but the track is a no brainer. You have a nice trough digging into the southeast, bringing Florida a winter-like pattern. All that tropical moisture needs to go somewhere. As I constantly stated for days and days, whether it be Matthew or his remnants, eventually the left overs will move north. Though the complicating situation is the strength of the storm. Sure we have alot of warm water, but with so much convection and heat, it's going to be hard for it to really get going. Think of Alex.. Took 4 days to get going. I believe a weak to moderate TS will hit Florida in a few days, with a possibly more potent system for the Carolinas as it travels through the Gulf Stream. That's my thoughts on everything. I'm not ready to talk about the next system yet, too early to tell. 
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Unregistered User
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(Unregistered)
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Mon Sep 27 2010 03:33 PM
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Re: TD16 Forecast Lounge
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one thing that is fairly certain with the developing scenario is that the east central coastline of Florida will experience a prolonged period of strong onshore winds from around thursday into and possibly thru the weekend. a coastal erosion event is becoming increasingly likely given the gradient between the low pressure areas traversing the stalled front and strong high pressure to the north.
i sure hope that several days of heavy/soaking rain accompany the low pressure areas as they work N/NE along the frontal boundary. as of today i have recorded only 1.69" of rain in september, which is on track to break the previous monthly low rain total (18-yr records) of 2.67" in 2008, following the 2nd driest august with 3.54", following the driest July with a meager 1.03", following the second driest June with 2.76". the last time it rained more than an inch of rain in a 24-hour period was on May 25th!
(You need to register so that those rainfall measurements can have a reference point.)
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