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doug
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(Weather Analyst)
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Thu Oct 14 2010 07:42 PM
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GFS for mid week
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Just been looking at a GFS run that blows something upp in the west central carribean by mid week. Any thoughts?
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Unregistered User
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(Unregistered)
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Fri Oct 15 2010 04:14 AM
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Re: GFS for mid week
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Yeah the model looks like a hurricane may be cranking up out there by Wednesday or Thursday then head on to affect Jamaica, Cuba and The Bahamas maybe even Florida.
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Ed Dunham
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(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
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Fri Oct 15 2010 04:59 AM
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Re: GFS for mid week
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While the GFS and NOGAPS have been developing a system, I think that its way too early for any track or intensity specifics based on a couple of model runs. The 15/00Z run of the GFS does form a weaker system from an area of lower pressure north of Panama early next week, but moves it inland and dissipates it over Nicaragua/Honduras by mid week. Until (and if) an actual system forms, the global models will be all over the place on track and intensity from run to run - and essentially useless from a forecasting standpoint.
ED
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Unregistered User
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(Unregistered)
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Fri Oct 15 2010 05:34 PM
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Re: GFS for mid week
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12z GFS run still showing a system develop. How many model runs must occur until the NHC takes notice?
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weathernet
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(Storm Tracker)
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Fri Oct 15 2010 06:10 PM
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Re: GFS for mid week
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Trust me, the NHC does "pay attention" to model support. That said, just like you and I...., certainly something to watch for but beyond that, nobody is going to go out and put up the 'ol shutters, fill the gas tank, etc. The very fact that the same conducive conditions prevail ( warm SST's, low pressure, light upper level winds, etc ), while in a year that also supported the development of previous systems this year, then mix in the La Nina variable which would lend to potential for late season storms........., at minimum would make me think that given the short term 60-96 hour forecast time frame would indicate a better than 50/50 chance of "something" developing.
At the moment, Nogaps, NAM, Canadian, are in some degree of agreement with the GFS. Will be interesting to see if the Euro ( which has not shown new development here thus far ) comes on board too.
I have come to the conclusion though, that where I may place more trust into an alliance of model support indicating cyclogenesis, in no way can one anticipate accuracy of strength this far out - and absolutely cannot buy into any degree of accuracy regarding exact track. This said, because the Euro tends to be somewhat more conservative in developing "ghost systems", and my perception of its better global handle on "the big picture" , I will tend to pay greater attention when it continues to advertise development ( with other model support ), and give some credence to the Euro's forecast storm track and motion. If the Euro consistently anticipates a strong storm to approach and we are within a window of 120 hours or so........, I start to count how many cans of spagetti-O's we have on hand! 
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IsoFlame
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(Weather Analyst)
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Sat Oct 16 2010 12:44 PM
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Re: GFS for mid week
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well put. when the euro and "me-gut" feelings are in synch, i pay attention.
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vpbob21
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(Weather Guru)
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Sun Oct 17 2010 05:31 AM
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Re: GFS for mid week
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The area has been designated invest 99L. There seems to be a broad low just off the coast of Panama, around 10/81. The good news is that most of the models seem to have shifted west and take it into Central America before it can develop much. In fact the GFS which has been the most gung-ho on development now on its 00Z run takes it across Central America and develops it on the Pacific side. Things could change again but right now the threat (if there ever really was one) of a Western Caribbean hurricane seems to be dwindling.
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