| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Mon Oct 18 2010 03:12 PM |
Richard Forecast Lounge
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It seems the vortex has stayed off shore as it has moved NW'ly. The models don't have this fixed yet. Increased odds to develop? Then what?
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Mon Oct 18 2010 06:29 PM |
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Re: Invest 99L
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I'm thinking probabilities of development will increase tonight and tomorrow if a TD doesn't form before then. There is a dry air mass moving across the GoM and Mexico with SWesterly wind, so I'd think a North and then NE track is more feasible if a tropical system does form.
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Oct 18 2010 09:04 PM |
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Re: Invest 99L
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good observation
truth is many models had Paula hanging down in the Carib for days and she did not take that slow train thru the tropics....seeing as that was just a short while ago it stands to reason that 99 will not do that either, hard to say but there is something there... that would be potential
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Oct 19 2010 08:50 AM |
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Re: Invest 99L
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Looks better organized this a.m. Seems to be rotating around a point near 17.2 N and 82.5 W with a slow NNW motion. Sat. presentation looks good enough for a TD.
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Oct 19 2010 01:55 PM |
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Re: Invest 99L
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It's looking a bit ragged today and seems to be mostly stationary near 17.2N; 82.5W. It may be another 24 hours before anything more definite forms, if it does at all.
Edit: Make that 83.5W - it's hard to find a definite CoC.
| Edski |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Tue Oct 19 2010 05:38 PM |
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Re: Invest 99L
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I noticed yesterday that the 3 BAM models were scattered a lot, today 2 of them agree with taking the disturbance over Central America and into the pacific, the deep laymer model takes it shooting across the Atlantic...
sfwmd invest 99 plots
The NHC has it at 70% now
| weathernet |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Oct 19 2010 07:24 PM |
Re: Invest 99L
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Well, it would appear to indicate that 99L has enough depth that the shallow/mid level steering is not primarily steering current motion. Those models currently indicate a more S.W. motion, yet it has managed to drift north instead. In fact near term ( or perhaps longer term also ), motion may very well prove to be an effect of its own further deepening and developing. Certainly appears that 99L is getting its act together; low and mid level convergence appears to continue to increase. Perhaps a slight bit of SW shear towards its western quadrant. Right now, it would seem hard to argue against the BAMD for its future motion. Quicker deepening will have Richard likely crossing Cuba and "touring" the N. Atlantic with time. On the other hand, slower strengthening might permit itself to dawdle around long enough, so that ridging building in from the west Gulf ( and/or a skinny ridge re-asserting itself over Cuba, Hispaniola, etc. ), would certainly seem to cause any storm south of C. Cuba a few days out to be pushed back to the west ( or southwest ).
October systems can really have "squirlly motion". Right now, I could easier see motion taking a storm towards the N.E. or S.W., I just can't seem to rationalize how this system would have adequate time to deepen, remain over water, then hang around long enough to eventually be a threat to Florida. Richard ( if it forms ) would need to be still hanging around beyond 132 hours, AND be in a precise position, to end up being in such a position to then move across W. Caribbean and then N.E.'ward across Florida. Thus right now the largest threat would seem to be the risk for torrential flooding for Jamaica, E. Cuba and Haiti.
| weathernet |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Oct 20 2010 01:57 AM |
Re: Invest 99L
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By satellite appearance, it is my guess is that recon will find a slight drop in pressure ( 1007mb perhaps? ) and we'll have NHC classifying our next T.D. by daybreak. Would not be surprised to have further upgraded to Richard by late in the day, all the while moving N.E. around 5-10mph
danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Wed Oct 20 2010 08:08 AM |
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Re: Invest 99L
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While the GFDL might be an outlier. The HWRF is close on it's heels. Two outliers is not impossible.
They are forecasting a CAT 3/ 4 in the Southern GOM for Sunday night.
GFDL at 935mb and 135 knots, and HWRF at 933mb and 106 knots.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.c...&hour=126hr
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.c...&hour=126hr
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Wed Oct 20 2010 09:16 AM |
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Re: Invest 99L
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Interesting two model runs, and in agreement with each other. All of the models seem to indicate a meandering system in the Caribbean in the short term, though.
| Owlguin |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Oct 20 2010 03:10 PM |
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Re: Invest 99L
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Models seem to be shifting to first head west, and then eventually turn to the northeast toward Florida; so from a personal perspective, I am hoping that it doesn't develop.
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Oct 20 2010 10:21 PM |
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Re: TD 19 Forecast Lounge
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more interesting that the navy site has named it 19 and all night it has been explosive on funktop...
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc10/ATL/19L.NINETEEN/ssmi/track_vis/thumb/Latest.html
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Thu Oct 21 2010 06:30 AM |
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Re: TD 19 Forecast Lounge
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What a difference a day makes.
Latest model runs have taken a northerly turn and now nearly all of the models forecast a track toward the Western GOM or The Eastern GOM including the Bahamas.
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Thu Oct 21 2010 07:04 AM |
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Re: TD 19 Forecast Lounge
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A couple of those models make me a bit nervous, but only enough to be aware and vigilant for the next few days. It is still much too early to put a lot of trust into the long range time frames.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Thu Oct 21 2010 07:29 AM |
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Re: TD 19 Forecast Lounge
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Last paragraph, and more specifically the last sentence, of the Discussion is an early morning eye-opener.
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT TO
THE NORTH...AND IS HEAVILY BASED ON THE GFS...THE UK MODELS AND
CONTINUITY. I HAVE LESS CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST BEYOND 72 HOURS
BECAUSE THE GFDL...THE HWRF AND THE ECMWF TURN THE CYCLONE TOWARD
THE NORTH OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE TRACK HAS TO BE ADJUSTED
NORTHWARD LATER ON.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/210842.shtml
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Thu Oct 21 2010 08:28 AM |
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Re: TD 19 Forecast Lounge
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HRWF (link)and GFDL (link) this morning are a little alarming with the suggestion of a hurricane crossing Florida on the 26th west to east closely following the I-4 corridor.
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Thu Oct 21 2010 10:35 AM |
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Re: TD 19 Forecast Lounge
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The GFDL is putting it right on Tampa Bay early Tuesday morning (late Monday night) with 100 mph winds while the HWRF places it at Punta Gorda at the same time with 80 mph winds. Of course that will change from run to run. If that track begins to be supported by the other models and becomes more consistent, then we begin to worry and start our preparations. Right now, it's just enough of an "if" to get my attention and put me into a "wait and see" mode.
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Thu Oct 21 2010 11:21 AM |
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Re: TD 19 Forecast Lounge
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Well, the 11 AM discussion indicates that the NHC is really hedging their bets on the future track guidance. I'm waiting to see how things are panning out on Saturday/Sunday for the time being. I'm going through my mental list some and definitely keeping a wary eye out on Richard.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Thu Oct 21 2010 11:25 AM |
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Re: TD 19 Forecast Lounge
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Highest chances are probably closer to the panhandle right now (and weaker due to shear), but it's more in a flux than usual.
| Owlguin |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Oct 21 2010 03:11 PM |
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Re: TD 19 Forecast Lounge
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Big differences still exist between the models. Maybe it depends on how well the system develops? HWRF and GFDL continue to develope the storm and bring it north and east. Others seem to not develop it so much and dissipate it over Central America/Mexico.
| vineyardsaker |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Oct 21 2010 03:30 PM |
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Re: Richard Forecast Lounge
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Could you please give me your guesstimate of the chances of Richard both recurving towards Florida AND making landfall in Florida as a hurricane? I understand that this is way too early to call, but I want to check with you whether my gut feeling that the chances of BOTH of these happening in sequence are rather low.
Thanks!
(Post moved to a more appropriate Forum.)
| Marknole |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Oct 21 2010 04:32 PM |
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Re: TD 19 Forecast Lounge
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Quote:
Highest chances are probably closer to the panhandle right now (and weaker due to shear), but it's more in a flux than usual.
Thanks a lot Mike! I'm sure hoping/expecting a late-season death-by-shear event from Richard, but sure wish this Gulf Coast trof wasn't leaving...
| rgd |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Oct 21 2010 04:42 PM |
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Re: TD 19 Forecast Lounge
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If you read the 5pm discussion on this storm the models have shifted west now then the east which they were.
All in all it will be a few days before we can say ANYTHING about where it is gonna go.And that means from Florida to texas to nowhere.Here is the 5pm part i am talking about.
Tropical Storm Richard Discussion Number 4
Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on October 21, 2010
The best estimate of current motion is about 155/3. A trough over
the western Atlantic and northwestern Caribbean has been steering
the system slowly southeastward during the past day or so.
However... this trough is in the process of lifting out of the
area...which will allow a ridge to build over the Gulf of Mexico.
While the models are in reasonable agreement on the storm
eventually turning back toward the west in a day or so...they are
in rather poor agreement after that time due to varying ridge
strengths over the Gulf of Mexico. All of the forecast guidance has
shifted well toward the left...after moving toward the right
overnight. Given the erratic behavior of the model guidance...a
luxury the official forecast does not have...this is a low
confidence track forecast. The model consensus is actually now in
good agreement with the previous NHC track...and little change will
be made to the NHC forecast. The new 48-hour forecast point is
close enough to Honduras to warrant a tropical storm watch.
| IsoFlame |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Thu Oct 21 2010 09:34 PM |
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Re: TD 19 Forecast Lounge
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forecast track aside, +15kts h48-72, followed by -40kts h72-96 makes a good nickname for this system is "tricky dick"
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Fri Oct 22 2010 10:47 AM |
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Re: TD 19 Forecast Lounge
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Good Morning:
Observations this morning are that the system is drifting slowly just north of due west, and is consolidating a bit, so stregthening is likely. Also the track seems to be getting set up to be into the Yucatan /Mexico as the high building in from the NW increases in strength. I don't see this as a threat to Florida or any US mainland.
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Fri Oct 22 2010 11:56 AM |
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Re: TD 19 Forecast Lounge
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Well, not an immediate threat, but once the system enters the GoM, it has to either dissipate or it will hit the US mainland at some point along the Gulf coast. Whether that is as a TD, TS, hurricane or simply a baroclinic low on a front remains to be seen. At the rate things are developing and the slow movement, we won't see a landfall threat for the next 5 - 7 days out.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Oct 22 2010 12:42 PM |
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Re: TD 19 Forecast Lounge
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looking at the current loop below , i am guessing that eather the center reformed north of what the current forcast track is or he took a jump north. Any one else see this? am i wrong?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-bd.html
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Fri Oct 22 2010 12:55 PM |
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Re: TD 19 Forecast Lounge
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Yes, even the center fix on the 11 AM advisory is North of the forecast track position. The track overlay on the sat loops is initialized at 22/1200Z (22/0800 EDT). It does look like they've adjusted the track slightly for the short term to the 11 AM fix on the main 3 and 5 day forecast graphic.
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Fri Oct 22 2010 02:42 PM |
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Re: TD 19 Forecast Lounge
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Richard, I ran through the models and not many really prolong the system after the Yucatan.
The current runs certainly are not as dramatic as yesterday's GFDL or HWRF. GFS which was the first to pick up on this last week, and earlier this week did allow intrusion north of 21N, now sends it over Mexico and dissapates it. It has disappated it now consistently for two days. ECMWF also dissapates the system toward the end. In my opinion these two models have been most consistently accurate all year. Hence my opinion that the system will not last long enough into the Gulf to be considered a tropical cyclone strike upon the mainland.
| Edski |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Fri Oct 22 2010 05:33 PM |
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Re: TD 19 Forecast Lounge
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That's the general feeling I have gotten too over the last couple days - fizzles out over southern Mexico. Seems that the models are a bit more clustered today.
| berrywr |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sat Oct 23 2010 02:34 AM |
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Re: TD 19 Forecast Lounge
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Looking at model data this evening there will be two windows of opportunity; one right now and the next in about 5 days as ridging retrogrades from east to west and sets up shop over the GOM. It's whether Richard will be viable when the second opportunity becomes available. The last couple of systems that moved over the Yucatan did not weaken as rapid as models or NHC predicted and that will have to be watched as well. We're just going to have to wait and see what emerges in the GOM in a few days and how strong or weak Richard is at that point in time. It is late October and zonal flow will be over the USA and the westerlies are now as south as the Northern GOM.
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Sat Oct 23 2010 01:28 PM |
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Re: Richard Forecast Lounge
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As of the 11AM Richard Forecast Discussion #11, NHC notes that Richard is "strengthening quickly."
While not ideal, dry air entrainment has nearly come to an end, with shear also dropping to levels often associated with conditions that can favor rapidly intensifying cyclones. Environmental conditions for continued intensification are improving this weekend, and given that Richard is a relatively small tropical cyclone, it may keep having a tendency to respond fairly quickly to changes in its environment.
Richard has a window this weekend to strengthen more than currently forecast prior to landfall, and impact a small area significantly, depending on exactly where it goes, due to very high wind, and not just complications from rain.
This region is accustomed to very heavy rains during the summer and fall. In Belize City for example, October tends to be the wettest month of the year. As such, populations in this region may not be taken by surprise when a very heavy rain comes through. But residents may not be so prepared for a small, concentrated area of very high winds, which are likely to occur even with Richard not exceeding the current official forecast of about 70 knots around time of landfall.
This is definitely something those in Richard's forecast track may want to keep in mind when starting to make arrangements for the potential of a direct hit, which they should probably now be doing, just in case.