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As of 4:00 AM CDT, Tropical Depression Barbara was heading generally north at an estimated 8 MPH through the northern half of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, and is expected to enter the southern Gulf of Mexico later this morning. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to around 35 MPH, with stronger gusts. Within the past few hours considerable deep convection has been redeveloping right atop and to the north of an apparently still intact Low Level Circulation Center, and it seems reasonable to assume that Barbara probably has a better than 50-50 shot of becoming an officiated Atlantic basin tropical cyclone, which would make it the first of the season. Because Barbara has now become an Atlantic basin interest, we will open up a lounge at this time. This is where to put our mid to long range thoughts on Barbara's potential for further development, intensity, and forecast track. Longer range model output discussions are also appropriate here. Edited to reflect downgrade to remnants. |
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EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1124 AM EDT SAT JUN 01 2013 VALID 12Z TUE JUN 04 2013 - 12Z SAT JUN 08 2013 ...MULTI-DAY HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT FOR SOUTH FLORIDA... RELIED ON THE 06Z/01 GEFS MEAN MASS FIELDS AS A GUIDE FOR THE FRONTS AND PRESSURES FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7, CHOSEN BECAUSE IT BEST REPRESENTED CONTINUITY AND THE GROWING CERTAINTY IN SOME OF THE SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS POSING THE GREATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER THREATS. ALL THE GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE THE CONTINUATION OF AN UNSEASONABLY SUPPRESSED POLAR JET ACROSS THE UNITED STATES AT THE MEDIUM RANGE--ATTENDANT TO THE AT LEAST MODEST ONGOING BLOCKING AT HIGH LATITUDES. THE MEAN TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE ANCHORED OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE NATION, AND THAT IS WHERE THE WIDEST SPREAD RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED THIS PERIOD. SUPER-MOISTURE-PACKED TROPICAL AIR CIRCULATING AROUND A DEEP-LAYER VORTEX OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO WASH INTO SOUTHERN FLORIDA AS THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES ELONGATES THE GULF CIRCULATION. ALL THE MODELS BREAK OFF A CHUNK OF THIS TROPICAL SWIRL AND TRACK IT ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, THEN UP THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE POLAR WESTERLIES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE GEM GLOBAL CONTINUES TO PRESENT AN UNREALISTIC EMERGENCE OF A FULL-BLOWN TROPICAL CYCLONE VERY EARLY IN THE PERIOD, TRACKING IT ACROSS FLORIDA THEN UP THE ATLANTIC COAST PLAIN--DIRECTLY ASTRIDE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN PLACE. THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME IS A JUICY FRONTAL WAVE THAT SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE HIGHEST MOISTURE-CONTENT AIR EAST OF THE ATLANTIC COAST NORTH OF JACKSONVILLE, FLORIDA. THE 0.25KM ECMWF PUSHES A SLUG OF 2.50+" PRECIPITABLE WATER-LADEN AIR ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA, INCLUDING THE KEYS, NEXT WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, SUPPORTING MANY INCHES OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA. WILL BE COORDINATING WITH THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THE FIRST MEDIUM-RANGE HOTLINE CALL OF THE YEAR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON TO DISCUSS ANY TROPICAL CYCLONE POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM, AS WELL AS ANY OTHERS OVER THE NEARBY OCEANS. CISCO |
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MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 248 PM EDT SUN JUN 2 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: HIGH CONFIDENCE BLEND OF GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH MOST OF MON...THEN LOW TO AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH RESPECT TO POSITION AND INTENSITY OF FORECAST SURFACE LOW...CONTINUE TO LEAN MORE TOWARD ECMWF TRACK BUT SLOWER MOTION OF THE GFS.... .....GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATE PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MODELS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UKMET ARE SUGGESTING A GENERAL TRACK TO THE NE OF THE BROAD LOW PRES AREA AFTER ABOUT MON. THE 12 UTC GFS TENDS TO LATCH ON TO WHAT APPEARS TO BE CONVECTION FEEDBACK FROM CONVECTION OVER THE SE GULF AND PULL IT TO THE N TUE AND WED. THE GFS STILL APPEARS FASTER THEN THE ECMWF THROUGH WED NIGHT...BUT IS LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE 10M WINDS. THE ECMWF BECOMES FASTER IN TAKING THE LOW NE ACROSS W CENTRAL FLORIDA BY THU. EVENING. AT THAT TIME... THE GFS STILL HOLDS BACK THE LOW OVER THE NE GULF INTO FRI. AFTERNOON. IT THEN MOVES THE LOW INLAND N FLORIDA LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. THE UKMET IS FARTHER TO THE W THAN THE REST OF GUIDANCE ENVELOP DURING THE PERIOD...WHILE THE CANADIAN MODEL IS CONSISTENTLY TO STRONG IN DEVELOPING THE LOW...BUT VERY SIMILAR TO THE GFS IN TRACK THROUGH WED NIGHT BEFORE ACCELERATING THE LOW IN A NNE DIRECTION MOVING IT INLAND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THU AFTERNOON. INTERESTINGLY...THE LATEST GFS ENSEMBLE KEEPS THE LOW IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THROUGH DAY 5 (FRI)...WHILE THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE TAKES IT NE TO ACROSS N FLORIDA FRI NIGHT. IN ANY EVENT AMPLE MOISTURE OVER THE SE GULF WILL AND ERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH SCATTERED TOP NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS...SOME WHICH MAY BE ATTENDED BY STRONG GUSTY WINDS. |