MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Sat Jul 06 2013 12:06 PM |
Chantal Lounge
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This is the lounge discussion for Chantal in the Atlantic.
When it formed as 95L, global models don't seem to pick up on this yet, but the others suggest it could near or clip the northeastern Caribbean. The GFS tends to keep it weaker and enters the Caribbean, while some of the others strengthen it and turn it more northerly. Currently the dry air around it will keep it from developing in the short term, but if the system persists through this, it has a better chance of development later.
Odds favor it turning out to sea before the US, but a lot remains to be seen. This lounge is to discuss what may or may not happen with the system.
Early model runs (Which are usually trash at this point) suggest it may develop after several days.
| ftlaudbob |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Jul 06 2013 05:44 PM |
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Re: 95L (Central Atlantic Wave) Lounge
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It's up to 30% now.You can see from SAT that it is getting better organized. Conditions around it should improve over the next few days.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/flash-wv.html
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sat Jul 06 2013 06:56 PM |
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Re: 95L (Central Atlantic Wave) Lounge
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Hello - some personal obs:
Low SAL in its immediate vicinity and ahead of its current trajectory; large plume of SAL lurks N, however, so not much wiggle room.
Despite low SAL, dry air alone does encircle the Invest envelope. This can be overcome by rigorous internal processes associate with quasi-coupled ocean/air consistent with TS modeling.
Shear is low. There are moderate easterlies in the mid and upper levels in the region of the Invest, however, the Invest's movement along with those vectors is making for a bit of SRS favorable environment, and low relative shear.
Centroid blob of convection is nearly collocated with the perceived axis of rotation associated with at least the mid levels. According to http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters.html ...they do not have a floater yet focused on Invest 95, so it is harder to make a more discrete analysis.
I do not believe the Atlantic is as conducive to early curving seaward, as the scenario of abundant subtropical ridging currently is ubiquitous around the Basin. There is a weakness of sort at around 50W, but Invest 95 is too far S [most likely] to be picked up by it. Moreover, most middle and extended guidance suggest that only after a brief and partial dismantling, the Bermuda ridge might restrengthen. It could turn out precarious if a TC were to mature as it neared 70W, so long as there is a block N, and notable weakness in the geopotential medium along 80 W. Those 2 circumstances are A and B in the list of getting a threat all the way across. Lots of time.
John
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Sun Jul 07 2013 09:48 AM |
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Re: 95L (Central Atlantic Wave) Lounge
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Sunday HWRF and GFDL Model summary:
Both of the 00Z runs, and at least one of the 06Z runs forecast 95L to become a Tropical Storm.
Forecast path, at this writing, 6 AM EDT Sunday, is along a north of Barbados, to over/ near Martinique and then toward the Dominican Republic where the system is sheared by the mountains.
The remains of the system move NW just south of the Turks and Caicos Island chain and dissipate near Andros Island, Bahamas.
See Clark's model runs for images and the latest models forecast.
http://flhurricane.com/images/2013/clark4latest.png
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Sun Jul 07 2013 12:07 PM |
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Re: 95L (Central Atlantic Wave) Lounge
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The Euro doesn't have a great handle on this system, but it takes it slightly north of the Caribbean and loses it around Saturday (possibly turning north). The GFS model moves it right into the Caribbean as a weak system, and eventually dissipates it. Judging by the condition of 95L now and the immediate forecast, I don't think either of the global models really have a good handle on the system yet.
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sun Jul 07 2013 01:12 PM |
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Re: 95L (Central Atlantic Wave) Lounge
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I agree that the models haven't really latched on to this system just yet. There isn't a lot of historical guidance for storms in that region/area forming in early July; simply not what one would expect so early in the season. SSTs are fairly high already, so we may be in for a wild ride this year. It also looks like the wave train is setting up over the African continent a bit early too.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Sun Jul 07 2013 04:26 PM |
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Re: 95L (Central Atlantic Wave) Lounge
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Recon may start on this system on Monday, depending on how it geos, Dvorak T numbers are at a 2 this afternoon, but the circulation really isn't all that good and it still has a lot to make it through before development, but it is on the rise.
It's probably going to be a rainmaker for the east Caribbean islands and then it's a bit up in the air, either it stays south in the Caribbean and basically never does much (rides an getts torn up along the n. Caribbean islands), or it creeps up to the north and hits the threat potential for the southeast up by this coming weekend. Either way it'll be something to watch this week.
| ftlaudbob |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Jul 07 2013 09:32 PM |
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Re: 95L (Central Atlantic Wave) Lounge
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From everything I can see,I think 95L will go right to TS status.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Sun Jul 07 2013 10:52 PM |
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Re: 95L (Central Atlantic Wave) Lounge
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it may, but a few days out i suspect it may fall apart when it approaches the eastern Caribbean, the fact the wave season is starting may be overall more interesting.
| ftlaudbob |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Jul 07 2013 11:04 PM |
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Re: 95L (Central Atlantic Wave) Lounge
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Quote:
it may, but a few days out i suspect it may fall apart when it approaches the eastern Caribbean, the fact the wave season is starting may be overall more interesting.
Yea,I am seeing those waves.Amazingly early for this.
| RevUp |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Jul 07 2013 11:44 PM |
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Re: 95L (Central Atlantic Wave) Lounge
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At this point in the season in the tropical Atlantic, it's a little unusual but great to have something to look at, which may become quite a rain maker for the NE Caribbean.
| ftlaudbob |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Jul 08 2013 03:10 AM |
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Re: 95L (Central Atlantic Wave) Lounge
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The east coast of Florida may have to watch Chantal by next weekend.Still alot can happen.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Mon Jul 08 2013 01:17 PM |
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Re: 95L (Central Atlantic Wave) Lounge
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Still a bit too early to tell exactly what will happen, the NHC's track is the best compromise though, even though it may be a bit too far south/west. How strong or weak it is seems up for grabs. By the time it gets in the Bahamas, the steering currents may collapse so there may be a bit of a loop off the coast, which will keep it in the picture for Florida (most likely weak, but hard to say this far out) late this weekend.
Land interaction when it approaches Hispaniola and Cuba is another wildcard.
The rapid movement of the storm is keeping development in check right now, and it likely won't slow down until it passes south of Puerto Rico. It'll be a rough day on the Leeward/Windward islands, but shouldn't be too bad.
This may be the start of several of these types of waves coming across this season.
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Mon Jul 08 2013 03:42 PM |
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Re: 95L (Central Atlantic Wave) Lounge
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The GFDL seems to hint at the loop/stationary movement at the end of the most recent run just NE of the Bahamas. Time will tell.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Mon Jul 08 2013 04:46 PM |
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Re: 95L (Central Atlantic Wave) Lounge
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12Z GFS has landfall near Cape Canaveral +153 hours out (Sunday late afternoon), then a second landfall in Louisana a few days later.
This will likely change, but if that persists, expect a lot more activity here.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/
A few more runs (and the euro run) will be helpful to see if this persists, there may be a weakness in the ridge that allows the storm to curve away from Florida, so it appears the global "model wars" may be on for this system.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Mon Jul 08 2013 06:18 PM |
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Re: 95L (Central Atlantic Wave) Lounge
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12Z Euro loses Chantal and opens it up near Cuba, not a good init for it, it seems.
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Mon Jul 08 2013 08:07 PM |
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Re: 95L (Central Atlantic Wave) Lounge
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Neither of these two models are bullish on the system...poor initialization? Or, too many variables to confront the system? Recon data may clarify a bit.
The Euro has a stronger opinion on the strength of the ridge.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Tue Jul 09 2013 04:14 AM |
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Re: 95L (Central Atlantic Wave) Lounge
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G F S tonight has an interesting run a bit further east than before, at least in the near term. As of now it's about to 141 hours out, and it has a rough track strikingly similar to Jeanne from 2004 so far. (just a little more north. It appears lt again is predicting landfall in east central Florida around Melbourne to Cape Canaveral overnight Sunday into Monday and spends the entire day Monday and part of Tuesday over Central Florida. (A bit stronger than the 12Z also, with more time over warm water)
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Jul 09 2013 09:34 AM |
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Re: 95L (Central Atlantic Wave) Lounge
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GFDL is also showing a hook back toward Florida, similar to the GFS. GFS continues the storm across FL into the Gulf, but substantially weakened. However, anything, even a remnant, in the Gulf bears close watching.
Looking at the wide area tropical Atlantic IR, there are several systems showing signs of turning in addition to Chantal: (1) a cluster of thunderstorms near the Bahamas and (2) a wave near the eastern edge of the frame. Models are not developing either of these.
GFS is also showing a strong wave coming out of the eastern Atlantic in the next few days - looks like something to keep an eye on.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Tue Jul 09 2013 11:07 AM |
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Re: 95L (Central Atlantic Wave) Lounge
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6Z GFS along with the Euro do not show much for Chantal, the 6Z GFS loses it on the eastern Bahamas, the Euro never really shows it at all. So there are two runs not showing much at all for the system.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Tue Jul 09 2013 11:36 AM |
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Re: 95L (Central Atlantic Wave) Lounge
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HWRF shreds Chantal over the Hispaniola. Remains are weak and move toward a SC NC, south of the Outer Banks area. Max wind speed for this run of the HWRF is 69 knots.
GFDL veers north before being shredded over Hispaniola and moves into the Western Atlantic just shy of the Turks and Caicos. Movement more toward the Outer Banks, NC than HWRF. But not by much.
Max forecast wind speed for this run is 96 knots.
The GFS and it's Ensembles right now are in an area from Charleston, SC to the western tip of Cuba. That's the Cone of Certainty area for the most part.
I'm somewhat concerned with the "Left Turn Chantal" scenario seen in nearly all of the GFS models and in a few of the NHC's model.
I saw a flare and hover, stall over the Bahamas area on yesterday's run. Similar to a hummingbird or helicopter moving up to a location and then abruptly coming to a hover. Easiest way to explain it. I'm still waiting on the next few days runs to come up with a better solution.
| Owlguin |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Jul 09 2013 03:12 PM |
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Re: 95L (Central Atlantic Wave) Lounge
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Curious if the Barbados radar is new this year. It has provided the best images I can recall of a storm going through the islands.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Tue Jul 09 2013 06:10 PM |
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Re: 95L (Central Atlantic Wave) Lounge
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Barbados radar went internet available online last year if I recall.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Tue Jul 09 2013 06:25 PM |
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Re: 95L (Central Atlantic Wave) Lounge
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The midday (12z models) are having a bad time initalizing Chantal, and the extremely fast movement of the storm isn't helping either, so another round of mixed models that are mostly useless.
| ftlaudbob |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Jul 09 2013 11:41 PM |
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Re: 95L (Central Atlantic Wave) Lounge
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How can a system look so bad,yet have winds of 65 mph?Very strange to me.
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Wed Jul 10 2013 01:33 PM |
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Re: 95L (Central Atlantic Wave) Lounge
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The present situation indicates that the Euro has out performed the others as it never really had the system as a closed low at all and allows it to play itself out in Cuba, which is likely to be the resolution, IMO.
| ftlaudbob |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Jul 10 2013 02:53 PM |
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Re: 95L (Central Atlantic Wave) Lounge
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Now we have a huge flare up,could she be coming back to life?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/03L/imagery/rbtop-animated.gif
| mikethewreck |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Jul 10 2013 03:39 PM |
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Re: 95L (Central Atlantic Wave) Lounge
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I've been watching her closely all morning and each time I look at her she looks stronger. Not surprised to see recon still supporting TS status. It looks like the bulk of the circulation may skirt south of Hispaniola but I'm sure the mountains will still affect her somewhat. Chantal has proven to be a resilient storm that I'm sure will be looked at closely after this season is over to try and understand the dynamics that kept her going. There are still future land interactions ahead of her on the forecast track (some high spots in the part of Cuba she is projected to go over) but at her speed it doesn't seem like she is sticking around any one place long enough to get bent out of shape by terrain.
One factor that has concerned me is the ULL in the Bahamas that seems to have been meandering about off the Florida coast for some time. Is it indicative that once Chantal "turns the corner" and slips out from under the ridge that she may stall in the Florida Straits?
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Wed Jul 10 2013 04:29 PM |
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Re: 95L (Central Atlantic Wave) Lounge
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I expected it to be gone, but...The TUTT is the main feature now influencing the progress of the system. It has been meandering westerly for days and that motion seems to be continuing and it is slow. The TUTT has generated a general cyclonic flow effecting from South Florida and almost all of the north western Carribean, and the system should follow an upper level trough that extends from SE Florida over eastern Cuba to the north west and north,,,The TUTT is generating westerly shear as the system moves to the west.
The persistence of a vortex in the face of several obstacles should be of concern, IMO, because if the system does slide NW to N and the effects of shear lessen and it then slows in forward motion, it could have a future if the vortex is not interdicted by interaction with land...
The current WV picture suggests the system could avoid a great deal of land interaction by passing through between Haiti and Cuba if the upper trough catches it...
We should not take our eyes off it...
| mikethewreck |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Jul 11 2013 03:40 PM |
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Re: 95L (Central Atlantic Wave) Lounge
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Am I wrong or has Chantal broken in two, one section firing up storms over E Cuba and the other part continuing her sprint northward? Is the ULL north and east of the northern section at work in this?
| Lamar-Plant City |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 11 2013 03:51 PM |
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Re: 95L (Central Atlantic Wave) Lounge
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Ed just made this observation in the "Chantal no longer" thread. It sure looks like her energy has continued moving westward to between Jamaica and Cuba while the convection has blows off to the north and begun to dissipate and disperse. Still in a high sheer environment but that flare up may be past the worst of it....bears watching.
| JoshuaK |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Jul 11 2013 04:33 PM |
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Re: 95L (Central Atlantic Wave) Lounge
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I see a couple of interesting areas in association with the remnants of this system. There appear to be two weak areas of rotation, one centered near 19N and 73.5W and the other centered near 24N and 74W. The latter looks like it might be developing. Then there is the convection bloom near 20N and 77W.
| mikethewreck |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Jul 13 2013 06:28 PM |
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Re: 95L (Central Atlantic Wave) Lounge
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Question: I've been watching the remnants of Chantal and it seems like every day whenever the remnants are near a land mass (i.e. Cuba, Central America, etc.) a row of storms seems to blow up all of the sudden (like what Florida is experiencing right now). Is this the sea breeze front interacting with the energy from the remnants of Chantal?
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Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Sun Jul 14 2013 03:54 AM |
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Re: 95L (Central Atlantic Wave) Lounge
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Actually, the amount of energy associated with the remnants of Chantal is quiet low - which is one of the reasons why the probability for redevelopment is also quite low. But never-the-less you have asked a good question. The warming of the land during the day is what drives the sea breeze and, as the remnants have drifted north, a high level of tropical moisture has moved north over the land masses that you mentioned (when one thinks of the tropics or the sub-tropics its hard to conjure up an image of even higher moisture content - but it indeed does happen). The higher precipitable water values along with the heat of Summer and the sea breeze interactions all produce a higher than normal concentration of daytime convective activity that declines in the later evening hours as the heat source is lost and the atmosphere stabilizes.
ED