Ed Dunham
|
| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Sun Sep 29 2013 01:41 PM |
Karen Forecast Lounge
|
Invest 97L is currently poorly organized in the western Caribbean Sea south of Jamaica and moving slowly to the northwest. Some of the models slowly develop this system into a TD or weak TS and move it toward western Cuba and into the extreme southeastern Gulf of Mexico. The upper air environment is not ideal for development so the current potential is low. This is the place for your thoughts on the future development (if any) and long range movement of this system.
ED
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Oct 02 2013 10:47 PM |
|
Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge
|
Conditions have changed since Ed brought our attention to this feature.
Currently, TPC has heightened the area to a high chance for development. The outlook is uncertain out in time, as usual. This time it is because, although currently the system has acquired good upper level outflow, southwest shear is slated to evolve as the system [ likely ] moves northwest, then toward the north or northeastern Gulf.
Nevertheless, currently the system appears very near enough organization to initiate advisories, when observing high resolution satellite loops. As said it has very good upper level anticyclonic outflow. It has a cyclonic banded appearance on late day imagery, and parcels of very cold cloud top convection erupting near the perceived axis of rotation.
Recon was supposed to investigate this disturbance this afternoon.
John
|
MikeC
|
| (Admin) |
| Thu Oct 03 2013 12:49 PM |
|
Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge
|
Karen's model initializations are bound to be off this morning, but the trend of the GFS lately (To strengthen it) seems to be a possibility, even as Karen will likely hit more shear as it gets closer to land. The storm may have enough time for momentum to build up to become a problem.
| mcgowanmc |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Oct 03 2013 04:32 PM |
|
Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge
|
http://www.jamesspann.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/10-3-2013-10-52-34-AM.jpg
First to go over bpMacondo/DWH
The beaches and 1 km inland will be interesting....
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/12L_tracks_12z.png
|
Ed Dunham
|
| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Fri Oct 04 2013 04:33 AM |
|
Re: Karen Forecast Lounge
|
04/00Z GFS model run presents quite a change in the GFS forecast track. Brings Karen into Apalachee Bay with landfall early Monday morning, then into the Atlantic just offshore Georgia by early Monday afternoon and then stalls the system off of Cape Hatteras through Thursday as a ridge builds to the north. It will be interesting to see if future model runs support this trend.
ED
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Oct 04 2013 05:17 AM |
|
|
Re: Karen Forecast Lounge
|
I so want to just dismiss GFS as crazy. Although, my new generator did arrive today. So I'm covered if the blind squirrel found a nut.
It wouldn't be the first time I went to sleep thinking one thing and woke up to a complete surprise though.
|
MikeC
|
| (Admin) |
| Fri Oct 04 2013 11:02 AM |
|
Re: Karen Forecast Lounge
|
Ok Karen and the models are the tale of the split system all over again, I don't believe either of the main Euro/GFS models are wrong. GFS wants to take the mid level energy eastward as it approaches the coast, while Euro wants to take the low level part north.
So split system, if it winds up like Debby, the center will start to reform under the convection and the easterly run may be more likely, if the center sticks around it will just get sheared apart and be weak, still with most of the convection to the east. Watch today for any signs of center reformation, if it does reform to the east it has a much better shot at strengthening. This won't be easy to pinpoint.
| Owlguin |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Oct 04 2013 12:54 PM |
|
Re: Karen Forecast Lounge
|
Seems like more of the same for this year. In any case, the GFS this morning seems to take the LLC NNW as it is doing and then turns it ENE, at which time it may have an easier time combating the sheer.
| Owlguin |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Oct 04 2013 12:59 PM |
|
Re: Karen Forecast Lounge
|
BTW, the first shot of the visible satalite this morning is amazing as the cloud tops to the east of the center create a shadow over the LLC.
|
MikeC
|
| (Admin) |
| Fri Oct 04 2013 02:25 PM |
|
Re: Karen Forecast Lounge
|
I gather the thing to watch later today is for a slowdown in movement, if it stalls briefly like the GFS shows, then the easterly track is more likely sooner (And avoiding Louisiana) if it doesn't really slow much into the overnight, then weaker it is, and LA/MS/AL are the targets.
Interestingly the Euro model has trended eastward this morning, GFS really hasn't changed much.
|
MikeC
|
| (Admin) |
| Fri Oct 04 2013 03:47 PM |
|
Re: Karen Forecast Lounge
|
12z GFS is still running, but it's a bit weaker, takes it slightly more northwest, then an even harder right turn almost due east, never making landfall in LA. Well south of Mobile at the 51 hour mark , then moves it inland near Panama City Beach around the 66hour mark.
On the visual satellite, it looks like recent movement is more northward and a bit slower.
...
| Lamar-Plant City |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Oct 04 2013 06:27 PM |
|
|
Re: Karen Forecast Lounge
|
Anyone looking at the HWRF? It shows the storm coming in just north of Tampa as a pretty good tropical storm (at least is LOOKS that level). Is this just an outlier or does it have the heads-up on the stall and turn? It has been dry here the past week and a half but we are still way above normal for the year.
| Lamar-Plant City |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Oct 05 2013 03:20 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Karen Forecast Lounge
|
Tonight it just looks like the low center is completely decoupling from the overcast and moisture. Looks like it is dying a rather rapid death.
| mcgowanmc |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Oct 05 2013 07:56 PM |
|
Re: Karen Forecast Lounge
|
As Karen Continues to move N.
The models have really not kept up with
Karen.
The animated SFWMD has KAren going anywhere
but Central LA. Coast.
| JoshuaK |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Oct 06 2013 11:38 AM |
|
Re: Karen Forecast Lounge
|
Karen has just fallen completely apart. This morning she's barely a Depression with 30 mph winds and it now looks like she might go post-trop or dissipate before reaching the US Coastline. So much for what was originally supposed to be the first land falling tropical storm/hurricane of the year.
| mcgowanmc |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Oct 06 2013 05:25 PM |
|
Re: Karen Forecast Lounge
|
Just a reminder of what Karen was supposed to do....
90% chance. October 3.
(Post moved to the appropriate Forum.)
|
Ed Dunham
|
| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Sun Oct 06 2013 07:14 PM |
|
Administrative Note
|
I'm not quite sure just who needs to be reminded of what, but here are some important reminders:
1. Long range forecasts of tropical systems belong in the Forecast Lounge and not on the Main Page thread.
2. Your graphic image is a forecast output from one model for a single point in time. Model outputs are not the forecast, they are simply aids that are used to assist in the development of a forecast.
3. At no time did the official NHC forecast for Karen predict this track.
4. At the present time, perfection does not exist in Meteorology and I would comfortably predict that you could still make that same statement 200 years from now. If you expect perfection in Meteorology, expect to be frequently disappointed, especially when dealing with systems in the Gulf of Mexico.
ED