Ed Dunham
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(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
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Mon Oct 07 2013 03:08 AM
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Invest 98L Forecast Lounge
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Invest 98L in the far east Atlantic has a chance for slow development over the next few days. The GFS moves the system toward the west - just to the south of a zone of westerly windshear. This is the place for your thoughts on the long range track and development (if any) of this system.
ED
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Ed Dunham
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(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
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Fri Oct 11 2013 04:36 AM
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Re: Invest 98L Forecast Lounge
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Invest 98L is not as well organized as it was 24 hours ago. The system is moving toward a large area of strong southwesterly windshear and I'd expect that development chances should begin to decline.
ED
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vpbob21
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(Weather Guru)
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Fri Oct 11 2013 10:21 PM
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Re: Invest 98L Forecast Lounge
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I have thought all along that the NHC's odds of development (40-50%) were probably overly generous, but I have to say that 98L looks a lot better this afternoon than it has in a while. Deep convection has really increased and the circulation seems to be getting better defined. With all the shear and dry air ahead of it, along with the general unfavorable phase of the MJO, I'm still not convinced it's going to do anything. But I suppose if it can move slowly enough to stay behind the shear zone, it could have a chance. It will be interesting to see if the odds come up at 8:00 tonight.
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