cieldumort
(Moderator)
Mon Aug 28 2017 09:34 AM
HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE



A vigorous wave that has just left the coast of westernmost Africa has had solid model support for development over several runs, and this disturbance has been Invest tagged, 93L.

As of Aug 28 1215z, 93L was estimated to be centered near 12N 19.5W, with a minimum central pressure of 1009mb, and moving west at a rapid clip of 15 to 20 mph. The disturbance is being impacted by easterly shear, with convection displaced west of the approximate center.

There are some indication that a low level circulation may already be trying close off with 93L, perhaps at a location a little west of the presently estimated center. However, the fast forward motion of the disturbance and displaced convection will likely inhibit dramatic development in the near-term, but after 48 hours or so 93L's vigor may be able to overcome these detractors, and a tropical cyclone is expected to form - with NHC giving it a solid 70% chance of development within 5 days.

As an aside, props to vpbob21 for latching on to this wave early and bringing it to our attention more than once in the General 2017 Model Watching Lounge, where you can read from vpbob a little more on the model history of what is now 93L.

This is where to post thoughts on 93L's prospects. Long-term model discussions on 93L are also encouraged here. Pull up a chair, have a beverage of your liking, and share with us your thoughts. We may end up with lots of time to discuss this one.


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Tue Aug 29 2017 07:39 AM
Re: 93L Lounge

0Z Euro takes 93L into the Caribbean islands sep 6, then toward Puero Rico Sep 7 and Turks & Caicos int he Bahamas on September 8th. As a hurricane.

Something to watch closely post Harvey for the US also.


craigm
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Aug 29 2017 08:56 AM
Re: 93L Lounge

I'd like to post a good read on why the ECMWF outperforms the GFS. Although they both have their hits and misses as the article states. This pertains to 93L lounge only as we look at the current 240hr solutions for both of these models and also how well the Euro seems to be performing overall the last few years. This article is over a year old but, I think it still describes the most recent iteration of the ECMWF model. Not sure what is going on with the GFS with their longer range forecasts. Will do some more research to see how well the GFS has been verifying at 120+hrs since their new rollout. https://arstechnica.com/science/2016/03/...-just-improved/

doug
(Weather Analyst)
Tue Aug 29 2017 09:51 AM
Re: 93L Lounge

Euro is the only model that keeps the system in the lower latitudes up to 240 hours. The others have it significantly north.

cosmicstorm
(Registered User)
Tue Aug 29 2017 12:53 PM
Re: 93L Lounge

Great post Will look forward to your results.

MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Tue Aug 29 2017 04:05 PM
Re: 93L Lounge

Today's 12z euro keeps it north of the Caribbean islands, but has a cat 3 hurricane just east of the Bahamas on Sep 8. the 12GFS doesn't really develop it, but the weather moves over Florida on Sep 11th (after going through the Bahamas)

93L is worth watching over the next week or so.


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Tue Aug 29 2017 07:21 PM
Re: 93L Lounge

18z gfs weak system passing just north of the Caribbean islands on Sep 6, then strengthening tropical storm through the Central bahamas on Sep 9, cat 2 hurricane over the Keys on Sep 11th, Cat 4 landfall big bend on the 14th

MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Wed Aug 30 2017 09:39 AM
Re: 93L Lounge

NHC will be issuing advisories for this as Tropical Storm Irma at 11AM.

6Z GFS keeps the system out to sea the entire run, but develops it into a hurricane.

0Z Euro has a major hurricane Just east of the Bahamas on Sep. 9th.

GEFS Ensembles concentrate near Florida, so it will be something to keep watch over the next week or two, but there is a fair chance it will stay out to sea also.


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Wed Aug 30 2017 03:32 PM
Re: 93L Lounge

12Z models for Irma.

12Z GFS has Irma staying north of the Caribbean, but a hurricane by this Saturday, and recurving, but gets very close to Bermuda September 10th as a major hurricane.

12Z Euro has it a Hurricane on Sunday also, clips the Northeast Caribbean islands as cat 2/3 next Wednesday, Over the VI and Puerto on Sep 7 as a major hurricane, and continues through the Southeast and Central Bahamas as a major 0n the 8 & 9th where the model run ends.

HWRF and HMON keep it north of the Caribbean islands.


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Thu Aug 31 2017 07:58 AM
Re: 93L Lounge

Irma overnight runs:

6Z GFS Hurricane later today, maintains it, keeps it north of the Caribbean, cat 3/4 landfall near outer banks on Sep 10th.

0Z Euro, over Northeastern Caribbean, PR, on Wednesday, cat 2 hurricane, just north of Hispaniola by Friday, riding northern coast of Cuba at the end of the run on the 10th.

CMC misses Caribbean to the north,

GEFS Ensembles the majority of runs recurve, (good news)

Euro ensembles closer over the Bahamas, though.

Splitting the difference keeps it a threat to the US in play, ne Caribbean also. Still a long ways out, but it will be important to watch over the next week or two. The wildcard is the potential Gulf system, which could affect the track of Irma.

Both Euro and the GFS trended west.

If it were to affect the US, timeframe would likely be Sep 10-12th.


doug
(Weather Analyst)
Thu Aug 31 2017 08:43 AM
Re: 93L Lounge

I agree that development in the WGOM would allow a weakening in the ATL ridge that would allow a stronger storm to move more northward, so it is key for us to note whether a system does actually develop in the SW GOM over the next few days or not. The stronger the ridge the more south and west the track will be. The present Euro track is not favorable...

MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Thu Aug 31 2017 10:12 AM
Re: 93L Lounge

One notable thing about the pattern is that Irma's set up to become a very large hurricane (area wise), probably larger than the state of Florida. Which means it'll likely be a big surge generator, usually keeps the winds down (usually).

JMII
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Aug 31 2017 11:24 AM
Re: 93L Lounge

Irma looks really good for a storm so far east and so early in its development. Tight core, good outflow, almost has an eye already. NHC has upgraded to a 'Cane as of 11 AM update.

cieldumort
(Moderator)
Thu Aug 31 2017 12:54 PM
Re: Irma Lounge

Michael Ventrice (@MJVentrice) notes that with regard to the most recent ECMWF, which has a wide spread later in the period, the CFAN Wx/Climate EPS "High Probability Cluster" shows the best ensemble members (by initialization score) favor the Gulf.

Something to watch over the next few days to see if the other Euro members come into line with this (along with other globals, such as the GFS.)




Reaper
(Weather Watcher)
Thu Aug 31 2017 01:23 PM
Re: Irma Lounge

It will be interesting to see if it passes through Hebert Box 1 as a major and what that will mean.

MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Thu Aug 31 2017 02:59 PM
Re: Irma Lounge

euro has it moving west, goes through northeast of the Caribbean Wednesday then ends the run in the Florida Straits on Sep 10th.

GFS has no Caribbean or US landfall, but takes the storm into Nova Scotia in Canada sept 12th.

Reality will probably be somewhere in the middle.

We're not sure about the Caribbean yet, much less beyond, so that's about where it stands now. Something to watch very closely.


Lamar-Plant City
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Aug 31 2017 03:42 PM
Re: Irma Lounge

Quote:

It will be interesting to see if it passes through Hebert Box 1 as a major and what that will mean.



I am watching this myself....I have been fascinated with the Hebert boxes since I learned about them (on this site). I know they are not a sure thing but it is an interesting observation. I have added them to my tracking charts for easy reference. With every model trend toward the south it increases the chance of a pass-through.


JMII
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Aug 31 2017 05:40 PM
Re: Irma Lounge

Quote:

Quote:

I have been fascinated with the Hebert boxes since I learned about them (on this site).




I love how the South Florida Water Management District has the eastern "box" outlined on their graphics, oddly the western one isn't highlighted.

Irma certain got her act together quickly. From TS to Cat 3 in no time at all. Current pattern has a large, oblong blocking High (over Bermuda as typical for this time of year) but that high has a weakness in the middle. This is why the current Irma track goes NW then W then SW then back W in a lazy wobble over the next 5 days.

So the question is: does the H erode enough to let Irma turn N and finally curve out to sea.? Or does the weakness in the high close up and force Irma on a long track west?


Lamar-Plant City
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Sep 01 2017 12:36 AM
Re: Irma Lounge

Is it my imagination or is the NHC track leaning toward the EURO ensemble? So many models on the north side of NHC but the EURO is south and west of those....it might just be my rather limited understanding of how NHC figures its track....

MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Fri Sep 01 2017 12:43 AM
Re: Irma Lounge

It's probably a slight bias to the Euro, but the 5 day track is pretty similar regardless.

new model runs:

0zGFS slightly south of last run, but missed the NE Caribbean entirely, gets real close to the Outer banks on Sep 10 clips the outer banks as a cat 4, landfall near Virginia Beach Sep 10th.

0z CMC misses Caribbean to the north, barely, Cat 4 in the central Bahamas Sept 8, weakens to cat 2, landfall in upper keys Sep 10, rides up through Nples, and Just west of Ft. Myers at the end of the run.


ftlaudbob
(Storm Chaser)
Fri Sep 01 2017 06:13 AM
Re: Irma Lounge

Still a long way out, but by late next week.the north east may be under the gun.

MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Fri Sep 01 2017 07:27 AM
Re: Irma Lounge

Morning runs, better trends

0z euro clips the northeast Caribbean Thursday, then stays north (but close) of the Bahamas and ends the run with a recurve setup.

6Z GFS misses Caribbean to the north and recurves out to sea (west of Bermuda)

Slightly more than half of the GEFS ensembles show recruve now as well.

Hopefully this trend continues.


ftlaudbob
(Storm Chaser)
Fri Sep 01 2017 10:26 AM
Re: Irma Lounge

New England landfall?



Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Fri Sep 01 2017 10:52 AM
Re: Irma Lounge

Not being sarcastic, but with those plots, it could land anywhere??

ftlaudbob
(Storm Chaser)
Fri Sep 01 2017 10:54 AM
Re: Irma Lounge

Quote:

Not being sarcastic, but with those plots, it could land anywhere??




I think the GOM is safe.
Right now it looks like somewhere on the east coast or a fish spinner.


ftlaudbob
(Storm Chaser)
Fri Sep 01 2017 11:22 AM
Re: Irma Lounge


At this point, Southern New England would need some luck not to at the very least get effects from Hurricane Irma.I call it the tunnel effect.A High to the east and a trough to the west, and the storm has nowhere to go but stay in between them. Long way off,but that is my take at this moment in time.






JMII
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Sep 01 2017 12:57 PM
Re: Irma Lounge

Quote:

I call it the tunnel effect.A High to the east and a trough to the west, and the storm has nowhere to go but stay in between them.




Yes this tunnel, window or gap (whatever word you want) arrival timing with Irma will be the key. However the other factor will be her latitude during the trek west. If she stays low she could miss the gap. However the models are trending North which allows the trough to scoop her up and away. At that point her size would determine how much the NE coast feels as she races by.

Her shape today is classic 'cane - round with really good outflow, just a bit small and some dry air ahead to fight thru.


ftlaudbob
(Storm Chaser)
Fri Sep 01 2017 01:01 PM
Re: Irma Lounge

Quote:

Quote:

I call it the tunnel effect.A High to the east and a trough to the west, and the storm has nowhere to go but stay in between them.




Yes this tunnel, window or gap (whatever word you want) arrival timing with Irma will be the key. However the other factor will be her latitude during the trek west. If she stays low she could miss the gap. However the models are trending North which allows the trough to scoop her up and away. At that point her size would determine how much the NE coast feels as she races by.

Her shape today is classic 'cane - round with really good outflow, just a bit small and some dry air ahead to fight thru.




Agree it is going to have a lot to do with timing.Here are the latest runs,You can see the tunnel effect.

https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_11


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Fri Sep 01 2017 06:19 PM
Re: Irma Lounge

Today's model runs are a bit better news, mainly for the Caribbean islands, beyond that is still too soon to tell.

18Z GFS keeps the storm well north of the Caribbean islands, and east of the Bahamas, where the run ends, its a bit east, beyond that it's a bit odd but its still worth watching as it shows a landfall in western Long island on Sep 10th.

12Z Euro also keeps it (Barely) north of the Caribbean islands, but close enough for concern, the south side likely would be the weaker side (right of the eye is usually the strongest) It does get dangerously close to the Bahamas also by Sep 10/11th, closest to Florida on the 12th, east of the state, and moving fairly slowly. The trough toward the end of the Euro is the thing to watch if it would push it more into the coast.

In short, better news for the Caribbean, although they will still need to watch it very closely, but the official track is also leaning toward keeping it north. Beyond that is too soon to tell, impacts along the East coast are possible, but direct impact (landfall) is marginally less likely, but the future beyond 5 days is extremely uncertain. There is a good deal of risk that it could landfall along the US coast, more than most systems Still plenty of time to watch it, and there is no reason to hype this system other than being aware of it. This system is 10-12 days out and it is way too early to jump to any sort of conclusion any more than that at this point is probably hype. Watch and have a plan if you are along the east coast (particularly NC/VA/MD/DE/NJ/NY) although the GEFS says Florida, and watch, of course, in the Northeast Caribbean.

So in short just keep watching.


Prospero
(Weather Guru)
Fri Sep 01 2017 06:54 PM
Re: Irma Lounge

Five days is a long time in Hurricane forecasting!

Just for fun, this was a post on August 20th with Harvey 5 days out from landfall:

Quote:

cieldumort (Sun Aug 20 2017 12:12 PM ):
WSI Calibrated ECMWF EPS now showing a greater than 90% chance that Harvey regenerates.

While the GFS runs should not yet be fully discounted, it is my personal opinion that the new GFS (since the July 19 upgrade) has not performed as admirably with Atlantic tropical cyclones as might be desired, and even in the face of a dramatic convective resurgence this morning, the latest runs (20/0z, 20/06z and now the 20/12z) still do mostly nothing with now x-Harvey... maybe a TD crossing Belize, or forming in the extreme southern Bay of Campeche, at best. These runs now run entirely counter to the Euro, and defy the eyes.

Now awaiting the restarting of the TC-specific models HWRF & HMON. Run, runs, run.




Next post:

Quote:

ftlaudbob (Sun Aug 20 2017 01:43 PM ):
Harvey looks alive and well.Should be an upgrade soon.





And then...


Quote:

ftlaudbob (Sun Aug 20 2017 10:56 PM ):
And just like that, it died out again.





Harvey did not die, and by the morning of August 22nd it was a totally different story:

Quote:

cieldumort (Tue Aug 22 2017 09:30 AM ):
Model consensus for south Texas this Friday is growing much more concerning. HWRF, HMON, GFS, ECMWF, GEM & GFS Ensemble Members with almost 100% unanimity on a landfalling Texas hurricane Cat 1 to Major. Some runs hang it around just inland, others around the coast - with potential for very severe flooding if either of those scenarios verify (inland and/or coastal)...





ftlaudbob
(Storm Chaser)
Fri Sep 01 2017 07:58 PM
Re: Irma Lounge

Quote:

Five days is a long time in Hurricane forecasting!

Just for fun, this was a post on August 20th with Harvey 5 days out from landfall:

Quote:

cieldumort (Sun Aug 20 2017 12:12 PM ):
WSI Calibrated ECMWF EPS now showing a greater than 90% chance that Harvey regenerates.

While the GFS runs should not yet be fully discounted, it is my personal opinion that the new GFS (since the July 19 upgrade) has not performed as admirably with Atlantic tropical cyclones as might be desired, and even in the face of a dramatic convective resurgence this morning, the latest runs (20/0z, 20/06z and now the 20/12z) still do mostly nothing with now x-Harvey... maybe a TD crossing Belize, or forming in the extreme southern Bay of Campeche, at best. These runs now run entirely counter to the Euro, and defy the eyes.

Now awaiting the restarting of the TC-specific models HWRF & HMON. Run, runs, run.




Next post:

Quote:

ftlaudbob (Sun Aug 20 2017 01:43 PM ):
Harvey looks alive and well.Should be an upgrade soon.





And then...


Quote:

ftlaudbob (Sun Aug 20 2017 10:56 PM ):
And just like that, it died out again.





Harvey did not die, and by the morning of August 22nd it was a totally different story:

Quote:

cieldumort (Tue Aug 22 2017 09:30 AM ):
Model consensus for south Texas this Friday is growing much more concerning. HWRF, HMON, GFS, ECMWF, GEM & GFS Ensemble Members with almost 100% unanimity on a landfalling Texas hurricane Cat 1 to Major. Some runs hang it around just inland, others around the coast - with potential for very severe flooding if either of those scenarios verify (inland and/or coastal)...








Yes,that is how it went down.Havey was dead on the 20th.


Prospero
(Weather Guru)
Fri Sep 01 2017 08:31 PM
Re: Irma Lounge

Quote:

Yes,that is how it went down.Havey was dead on the 20th.




Yup, Harvey was dead, a blurry splash of clouds on a sat, and barely that.

Been looking at Hurricane history. Katrina five days out from LA, was approaching and landing on south FL as a Cat 1...no mention of New Orleans.

On August 13, 2004 Charlie did a sudden hard right, so Port Charlotte and everybody else in its path was taken by surprise even though aware there was a storm passing by. That was less than a few hour judo move from the predictions that nailed Tampa Bay and barely four days since Charlie was named.

So until Irma is two or three days out, all bets are off with me.


ftlaudbob
(Storm Chaser)
Fri Sep 01 2017 08:46 PM
Re: Irma Lounge

Quote:

Quote:

Yes,that is how it went down.Havey was dead on the 20th.




Yup, Harvey was dead, a blurry splash of clouds on a sat, and barely that.

Been looking at Hurricane history. Katrina five days out from LA, was approaching and landing on south FL as a Cat 1...no mention of New Orleans.

On August 13, 2004 Charlie did a sudden hard right, so Port Charlotte and everybody else in its path was taken by surprise even though aware there was a storm passing by. That was less than a few hour judo move from the predictions that nailed Tampa Bay and barely four days since Charlie was named.

So until Irma is two or three days out, all bets are off with me.




I was in Fort Lauderdale for Katrina.And Wilma later that season.


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Sat Sep 02 2017 07:43 AM
Re: Irma Lounge

Morning model runs:

0z Euro: Very close but just north of the Caribbean Islands Tues-Wed, Through the Central and northwest Bahamas sep 9-11th. Cat 4 landfall near Charleston, SC overnight Sep 11-12th.

6z GFS: Misses Caribbean and Bahamas, turns north, closest approach to NC on sep 10 (faster than Euro), landfall near Atlantic City, NJ in the morning of Sep 10th. cat 3. and quickly moves out.

HWRF has cat 4 north of the Caribbean islands, HMON as well.

Canadian misses Caribbean and Bahamas and turns Irma out to sea (West of Bermuda, East of the US)

The GFS Ensembles concentrate around NC/VA this morning.

Two camps are faster moving storm GFS/GEFS that moves further north and the euro which has a slower moving storm, caught behind and further south. Euro also has a stronger storm and is much more dangerous for the Bahamas.

Too soon to tell beyond 5 days, but looking better for the Eastern Caribbean islands, but mixed for the Bahamas, and east coast seems more likely than not for a landfall. Where is still up in the air, SC/NC/VA seems to be the current midpoint. But FL/GA and north of VA still have a high chance, but unless the timing drastically changes Florida seems less likely. Out to sea is still a possibility as well, more likely than Florida.



MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Sat Sep 02 2017 12:40 PM
Re: Irma Lounge

12Z GFS:

Misses Bahamas to the north, landfall Delmarva Peninsula as a cat 4 on the morning of Sep 11 then quickly moves over DC and into the great lakes from there.


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Sat Sep 02 2017 02:31 PM
Re: Irma Lounge

12Z Euro running, a bit south of the last run so far, this time it goes through or clips the islands of the Northeast Caribbean on Wednesday, comes close or clips the Turks and Caicos in the bahamas, but stays mostly north of them on Friday. Then turns out to sea.



MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Sat Sep 02 2017 03:52 PM
Re: Irma Lounge

The Euro ensembles are mostly west of the Euro operational itself. A lot depends on the position of the trough currently over the eastern half of the country, in a few days it may split and move southwest (more likelihood of US impact), stay over the mid Atlantic (more likely for out to sea), or slip northeast (steering collapses and Irma meanders near the Bahamas for a bit). The setup for the trough/ridge is really quite delicate, so even several days from now we may not have a good idea. The operation Euro is slipping through a narrow window, so there's a fair chance the Euro will change again in the overnight run.

Current focus should on how close it gets to the Northeastern Caribbean islands, beyond that too soon to tell.


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Sat Sep 02 2017 06:32 PM
Re: Irma Lounge

18z gfs avoids the Caribbean barely, stays east of the Bahamas, grazes the outer banks and landfalls as a cat 4 on the south end of the delmarva peninsula the morning of Sep 11th (monday) then heads toward DC/Baltimore. I know that area has had history with "I" storms before.

Overall thoughts, Mid Atlantic most risk, then Northeast, followed by out to sea, and then Florida/GA least risk. It's going to get uncomfortably close to the NE Caribbean, Bahamas may get some of it also. Confidence in general is staggeringly low.





Bloodstar
(Moderator)
Sat Sep 02 2017 09:01 PM
Re: Irma Lounge

I am starting to suspect the US has run out of luck. If the models hold up, Irma will be pretty brutal if and when it makes landfall.

ftlaudbob
(Storm Chaser)
Sat Sep 02 2017 09:42 PM
Re: Irma Lounge

Quote:

I am starting to suspect the US has run out of luck. If the models hold up, Irma will be pretty brutal if and when it makes landfall.




What are your thoughts on landfall?


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Sat Sep 02 2017 11:58 PM
Re: Irma Lounge

0z gfs run just starting, but already a bit faster and further south around 90 hours out and slightly stronger, although it still misses the NE Carib islands to the north, it's much close to them (about half the distance) of the earlier run, not a good trend so far. Ridging also slightly stronger. Just northeast of the Turks and Caicos by Friday morning (a good deal south, now about 100nm from turks vs 200nm at 18z) And approaching 160nm south of the old run a bit past that.

By Saturday it's slowing down, starting to feel the trough to the north, but not enough to get pulled in quickly, it may start to slow/drift just east of the northern Bahamas here.

By Sunday it's northeast of the Bahamas moving North-Northwest.

Landfall, Cat 5 near Wilmington, NC morning of Sep 11th rapidly moves inland, over Raleigh still at cat 3/4 strength, maintains hurricane strength into West Virginia.

0z CMC: Weaker hurricane, but passes through Central Bahamas on Friday, landfall near West Palm Beach Saturday Night/Sunday as a major.

0z UKmet is further southwest this run, misses Caribbean islands.

Overall trend, South and west.






Bloodstar
(Moderator)
Sun Sep 03 2017 02:46 AM
Re: Irma Lounge

Quote:

Quote:

I am starting to suspect the US has run out of luck. If the models hold up, Irma will be pretty brutal if and when it makes landfall.




What are your thoughts on landfall?




I've been really hesitant to make much in the way of forecasts recently, I haven't really had the time and energy to follow the dynamics. And with the storm this far out. it's very possible for the models to miss something that will impact the final path of Irma. Given that. at 120 hours, there is a strong system over the great lakes, with a positive trough axis, unfortunately that system appears to lift out after that, and it looks like some weak steering currents in place, and a strong high pressure to the north and east of the system. I would imagine that would tend for a slowing system that is moving more north than west. but unable to move back east. I think that's why the models are showing landfall along the Florida through Carolina coast.

My current guess is that the trough that could pull Irma away from the US won't dig far enough south and will be lifting out leaving weak flow over the south east coast. I really don't want to pick a spot, there's just too much uncertainty. But right now I think the highest risk is between Jacksonville and the outer banks.

If there is any specific thing to watch, I think it's going to be the evolution of the trough over the eastern US. I think that'll let us know the ultimate fate of Irma.


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Sun Sep 03 2017 07:07 AM
Re: Irma Lounge

More overnight:

0z euro: Clips NE Caribbean islands (barely) with the weaker side of the storm on Wednesday (cat 3?), Over Turks and Caicos in the Bahamas Friday, through Central Bahamas into Saturday Northern Bahamas by Sunday and starts heading north Sunday, (Goes through nearly all the Bahamas as a cat 4) Landfall near Wilmington, NC Cat 4 or 5 Sep 12th, then rides north through Eastern Virginia with the Outer banks and Hampton roads on the dirty side (East) of the system as it weakens.

6z gfs run mirrors the 0z with a Cat 5 landfall near Wilmington midday September 11th, then heading into West Virginia It barely clears the Caribbean islands and Bahamas to the north and east.

Again worth watching along the entire east coast and Bahamas as this still could change particularly after 4-5 days since a lot depends on the trough and ridge situation at the time. We aren't at the phase of the NE Caribbean yet, much less Bahamas, any long range models or projections are guidence on odds for future impact, I'd have a plan ready along the Bahamas, east coast regardless from Florida all the way to Boston, and start implementing things as the odds go up, particularly when watches/warnings go up, which could come this coming Saturday or so for the US.


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Sun Sep 03 2017 11:56 AM
Re: Irma Lounge

12Z GFS starts by not quite going as far south, but a bit further west, stays north of the Caribbean islands (but still very close) by Thursday it's north of Puerto Rico, but slightly west of the earlier run, so Irma is forecast to move a bit faster.

By Midday thursday it's slightly southwest of the prior run, and midday thursday it's very close to the Central Bahamas as a cat 4/5. (40nm sw of the earlier run) Saturday morning it's over the northern part of Cat island in the Bahamas

Then over Great Abaco as a cat 4/5 on Sunday (Sep 10th) where it starts to head north.





IsoFlame
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sun Sep 03 2017 12:08 PM
Re: Irma Lounge

I don't think Irma will continue to burrow WSW as deeply as last 12 hours for several reasons. First, historic tracks for the hurricanes of the similar strength in the same part of the Atlantic basin (though not many) did not continue south of due west. Second, the ridge north of Irma that has nudged her south of west appears to have a bit of weakness a few degrees either side of 50W, This very subtle weakness along the "belly" of the Bermuda high could allow her to track above 17N a bit longer during the next 24 hours. If this pans out, Irma may not bottom out at 16.4N as currently forecast in 36 hours.

MichaelA
(Weather Analyst)
Sun Sep 03 2017 12:40 PM
Re: Irma Lounge

Definitely need to pay attention to Irma now even though still over a week out. I just checked the FSU model site and a couple of them are a bit disconcerting for those of us in The Bahamas and Florida. Everyone's "radar" should be on from the Florida keys through Nova Scotia.

Bloodstar
(Moderator)
Sun Sep 03 2017 12:49 PM
Re: Irma Lounge

Quote:

I don't think Irma will continue to burrow WSW as deeply as last 12 hours for several reasons. First, historic tracks for the hurricanes of the similar strength in the same part of the Atlantic basin (though not many) did not continue south of due west. Second, the ridge north of Irma that has nudged her south of west appears to have a bit of weakness a few degrees either side of 50W, This very subtle weakness along the "belly" of the Bermuda high could allow her to track above 17N a bit longer during the next 24 hours. If this pans out, Irma may not bottom out at 16.4N as currently forecast in 36 hours.




Maybe, it's sometimes hard to tell if the upper air is exactly as analyzed, particularly without any real world soundings available. The big test will be when the Gulfstream does datasampling around Irma to get better data for the models to ingest. I think the first one will be taking off tomorrow afternoon.


OrlandoDan
(Storm Tracker)
Sun Sep 03 2017 12:53 PM
Re: Irma Lounge

Irma deserves monitoring. She is a long way out and it's too soon to tell how far the trough digs in to the east U.S. and how far the Bermuda high persists to the west.

cieldumort
(Moderator)
Sun Sep 03 2017 02:27 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Going to start out this reply by saying that I have been especially bullish on Irma's potential intensity for a couple of days now, and my confidence in this has only increased with each and every day. However, there are caveats. Subtle, but very possible changes in Irma's track, and/or degree of shear imparted by the upper low to her northwest, and/or potential for downstream effects from a (possible, but not yet NHC endorsed) development in the southern Gulf, etc. could have profound and as-of-yet unforeseen impacts on her future intensity, as well as track.

Given what is already known, plus considering the known unknowns, and unknown unknowns, my confidence for Irma's top wind speed during her lifetime breaks down along the following percentile basis (Please keep in mind, this is the "Lounge," and as such, I am taking wide liberty in sharing this, which is not, by any means, an official forecast. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center and its sister agencies for official information.

Opinion only. Top 1-min sustained wind speed attained by Irma at some point
High-end Cat 5 (175+ MPH) 35%
Cat 5 (160-170 MPH) 30%
Cat 4 (130-155 MPH) 25%
Cat 3 (Already attained) 10%

Put another way, it is my opinion (only) that Irma has almost a two-in-three chance of becoming a Cat 5 at some point before final landfall or dissipation at sea, and a 90% chance that Irma at least becomes a Cat 4.

I am rarely this bullish on a system. I was very bullish on Harvey, for example, but not nearly so much on any of the other TCs we had up until that point in the Atlantic basin this year.

Recon is finally getting in to Irma later today, which will help resolve some of the known unknowns, and maybe even some of the unknown unknowns. I will also be paying especially close attention to what happens with the Gulf trof, as well as (and they are of course all connected to greater or lesser degrees), the evolution of the Bermuda High. Again, recon flights will be very beneficial to my own opinions, as well as future model runs and official NHC forecasts.

Should Irma become both a large and very powerful hurricane (very plausible), locations prone to surge in her path may need to evacuate. Again, this is still highly speculative at this point, not an official forecast, and several days out.

- Ciel


MissBecky
(Weather Guru)
Sun Sep 03 2017 03:24 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

I haven't seen any talk here of the UKMET, which seems to be doing a very good job so far this year. What is the general opinion on this model? As a SWFL resident I'm particularly uneasy about its latest runs.

M.A.
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sun Sep 03 2017 03:26 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

I agree with every point you made. Looking at the HMON it has a peak intensity at 142-149kts. Most of the other models are staying around 125-135kts. This is a monster in the making. The overall size of the storm is what I am concerned with. By the Navgem it looks the size of Alaska in the central Bahamas. At the peak wind speeds of 170+ is it out of the realm of possibility to have TS force winds and surge effects 200 miles from the center? I remember Gilbert, Mitch, Katrina, Rita Wilma. This storm looks to have the potential to be as strong and much larger overall size. I'm not trying to hype this storm, but it doesn't look good for any thing in its wide path.

cieldumort
(Moderator)
Sun Sep 03 2017 04:25 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Quote:

I haven't seen any talk here of the UKMET, which seems to be doing a very good job so far this year. What is the general opinion on this model? As a SWFL resident I'm particularly uneasy about its latest runs.




UKMET is fairly reliable as a TC genesis tool. There are other models more fine-tuned to TC track and intensity. Also, its run goes out to 168, whereas other Globals being discussed here in the Lounge can be 240 +

As of the 0z 03 Sep run, the UKMET drives Irma towards South Florida, but that's where that particular model's run ends. To that point, its track is very similar to the other primary and consensus models.

Peak intensity up to the end of the Oz run is 139 knots at 925mb (roughly 2500'), which could correspond to about 140 MPH or so at the surface.


JMII
(Storm Tracker)
Sun Sep 03 2017 05:18 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

With each model run Irma gets further west and south.. not really happy with this trend. That cone is starting to get a little too close for comfort here in S FL. Every model has her going thru Herberts Box now. Right now she is pretty compact with hurricane force winds only 35 miles from the center.

WestFLJess
(Registered User)
Sun Sep 03 2017 05:25 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

yo.

JMII- I 2nd what you are saying about FL. 2 days ago it kept shifting north & east, now it's shifting south and west.

I guess we won't really know if it's going to hit FL until it goes over the islands (Leeward) & maybe Puerto Rico?

I haven't been on here in awhile but started coming on here back when Charley hit FL in 2003.


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Sun Sep 03 2017 06:22 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Afternoon models
18z GFS misses Caribbean islands to the north, (barely,they will still get affects), Friday morning over Turks and caicos cat 4, and moves through nearly all of the Bahamas through Sunday where it's over Great Abaco as a cat 5.then moves due north, staying east of Florida. Landfall near Wilmington, NC Overnight between Sep 11 and 12th as a cat 5 hurricane,

12Z Euro is further west over the Bahamas, but curves rapidly out to sea (Closest point to the us is sept 12).

Overall the entire East coast should be watching Irma, and hoping the out to sea scenario happens (like the Euro) Things are not looking good for the Bahamas, and the Northeast Caribbean may get some issues from the storm, but hopefully misses the core of Irma. Trying to specify where Irma will go at this point beyond 5 days is irresponsible, the western shifts are troubling for Florida, but odds still favor NC or out to sea. These aren't great odds though. So it really is too soon for any serious speculation on continental UI impacts.

GFS is likely overdoing the low pressures as well, it's very unusual to have cat 5 conditions last very long, so I'm hoping that is just overkill on the models part, odds are its way too strong (although Irma may very well be still very strong)


Psyber
(Weather Guru)
Sun Sep 03 2017 06:43 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Ok,

First I have to say it's interesting that everybody is ignoring the cyclonic system to the north/north west of Irma. I get that it's not that likely to get too strong but there's a pretty clear eye and cyclonic activity there. The reason I bring this up is that system without a doubt is affecting Irma. I'm going to say that it's going to weaken anything looking to chew on Irma to the N/N/W. Simply this is going to help keep Irma South of doing a kissing run up Florida.

The N.Equitorial current isn't exactly pushing Irma North either.

Now for my Irma DEEP thoughts.

First, i'm going to point out the obvious.

If Irma stays south, it's going to nail the D-R and Cuba (we're going to ignore D-R and Cuba's Hurricane hits because it doesn't matter if it's a 1 or a 5, NOBODY ever needs (or gets) aid on the D-R or Cuba.--sarcasm because we all know it's true)

IF Irma hit's Cuba she's going to drop intensity and strength in the mountainous regions(as usual) if the eye gets anywhere near rolling over the island. It's at that point where I believe Irma goes north.

The cone is currently north of the D-R and Cuba however this S/S-W push(and that baby system to the North keeps weakening the Gulf Stream) is still ongoing so it very well could get there.

My personal opinion is that the S-S/W continues and it keeps pushing Irma West. Admittedly my own personal weakness is predicting how Western/North Western ridges(with the Gulf Stream) affect storms but Irma just looks more south than people are thinking IMO.


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Sun Sep 03 2017 07:07 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

That upper level low is one of the things pushing Irma south of due west right now, but it should move off in time, that, and even other waves far away from Irma are making it a very complex system to track. I wouldn't doubt the NHC track though, but wouldn't be surprised to see it move a bit more south. I'm concerned that if the trend doesn't end soon the Caribbean Islands under watch right now may get a direct hit.

Prospero
(Weather Guru)
Sun Sep 03 2017 07:31 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Quote:

MikeC on August 29th at 7:39 am:
"0Z Euro takes 93L into the Caribbean islands sep 6, then toward Puerto Rico Sep 7 and Turks & Caicos into the Bahamas on September 8th. As a hurricane."




Not a bad forecast for five days ago compared to what is a possibilty today.


ftlaudbob
(Storm Chaser)
Sun Sep 03 2017 09:00 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Given the projection of a cat 4 or 5,I am a little surprised that no one has brought up the polar effect.Could she be pulled north and hug the coast?

Prospero
(Weather Guru)
Sun Sep 03 2017 09:12 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Quote:

Given the projection of a cat 4 or 5,I am a little surprised that no one has brought up the polar effect. Could she be pulled north and hug the coast?



"...the polar effect"? OK, my initial Google search did not provide anything I can relate to a storm. So I'll bite.

What is the "polar effect"??


Psyber
(Weather Guru)
Sun Sep 03 2017 09:14 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Quote:

Given the projection of a cat 4 or 5,I am a little surprised that no one has brought up the polar effect.Could she be pulled north and hug the coast?




Depends on the size. Irma is growing and at some point, it will make its own rules. A solid Cat 5 going pretty much west takes a high the size of the continental USA to bounce it north.

We'll have to see how many eyewall replacements she does with a relatively calm path right now.

These fast builders seem to have a mind of their own and only answer to MikeC's will.


M.A.
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sun Sep 03 2017 10:20 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

HMON 18z run brings the max winds too 162knts and the pressure to 856hpa. The HWRF to 145knts /910hpa. If memory serves me right, 882hpa was the lowest recorded in the Atlantic.

MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Sun Sep 03 2017 11:26 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Setup beyond 4 days or so is complex with a pattern that could bring a quick northeast turn, followed by a twist back west (or not at all and out to sea), if it drifts far enough south, then the north turn would not be as likely or pronounced which gives Florida a lot more issues, the Bahamas are in bad shape either way for Irma, unless it manages to get far enough south to be heavily impacted by Hispaniola (Which right now doesn't seem as likely)

The area that needs to monitor Irma is extremely large, from the Northern Caribbean islands (all the way to Cuba), Bahamas, Florida north all the way to Nova Scotia in Canada.


ftlaudbob
(Storm Chaser)
Sun Sep 03 2017 11:30 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Quote:

Setup beyond 4 days or so is complex with a pattern that could bring a quick northeast turn, followed by a twist back west (or not at all and out to sea), if it drifts far enough south, then the north turn would not be as likely or pronounced which gives Florida a lot more issues, the Bahamas are in bad shape either way for Irma, unless it manages to get far enough south to be heavily impacted by Hispaniola (Which right now doesn't seem as likely)

The area that needs to monitor Irma is extremely large, from the Northern Caribbean islands (all the way to Cuba), Bahamas, Florida north all the way to Nova Scotia in Canada.




You are truly the voice of reason.And as she gets stronger the crazies will come out.Thank you.


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Sun Sep 03 2017 11:39 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

0z GFS Run:
Updated as it comes in:
Starts off similar to the last run,Irma's obviously over warmer water now and we may wake up to a stronger hurricane.

By 36 hours, it's slightly south of the prior GFS Run, maybe 15 or 20 nm, but generally stays the same course until at least 42 hours out.

By Wednesday morning it's getting dangerously close to Barbuda, eyewall goes over Barbuda, then St. Maarten and Anguilla. By the evening it's over the British Virgin Islands (US gets some, but not as much as the northern British VI)

It stays north of Puerto Rico (to avoid the inner core), but still gets tropical storm force and maybe hurricane force along the northern side of PR.

Closer to HIspaniola this run, hits cat 5 late Thursday night as it nears the Turks and Caicos, and over them Friday morning.

Slips west of the Turks and Caicos Friday night, between Cuba and the Bahamas.

Saturday morning just offshore Cuba, then rides the northern coastline of Cuba. Sunday morning drifts north from Cuba into the Florida straits.

Category 5 landfall upper Keys, headed north AM of Sep 11th, maintains strength through Lake Okeechobee with dirty side of storm going through the populated areas of south Florida. Over Orlando (Still cat 4) by afternoon

Back offshore by St. Augustine by the end of the night, still a major another landfall in central Georgia.

Automatic winner for most insane GFS vs Florida run of all time.

Posting it here for the record, 10th straight US landfall prediction for Irma.









Psyber
(Weather Guru)
Sun Sep 03 2017 11:46 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Quote:

Setup beyond 4 days or so is complex with a pattern that could bring a quick northeast turn, followed by a twist back west (or not at all and out to sea), if it drifts far enough south, then the north turn would not be as likely or pronounced which gives Florida a lot more issues, the Bahamas are in bad shape either way for Irma, unless it manages to get far enough south to be heavily impacted by Hispaniola (Which right now doesn't seem as likely)

The area that needs to monitor Irma is extremely large, from the Northern Caribbean islands (all the way to Cuba), Bahamas, Florida north all the way to Nova Scotia in Canada.




I truly believe that the low to the N-N/W has caused/facilitated this continued south turn/flattening of the storm. Some might not have seen some of the satellite of it but for several hours it had the characteristics of a very organized system. It's turning into a big rain storm now but it's done the damage we didn't want to see. It's obviously being pulled apart now but. It's kept Irma in warmer waters, kept Irma out of the same sheer that's pulling the other low apart.

I see Irma staying north of Hispaniola however it's going to be getting some serious effects. For me, as bad as it is for Hispaniola and Cuba getting hit with hurricane effects, them being able to pull some strength out of the storm is better than it walking right at Florida as an H4 or H5.


lunkerhunter
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Sep 04 2017 03:23 AM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

thx for sharing. and not only a Cat 5 but Atlantic record 881 mbar!

Bev
(Weather Guru)
Mon Sep 04 2017 04:25 AM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

The 0Z GFS, Euro, and CMC are in fairly close agreement now with a S. Fla landfall or very near scrape.

What is going on with the GFS pressure, an anomaly?


lunkerhunter
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Sep 04 2017 04:58 AM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

see above 10PM the HMON called it first and much stronger than even the GFS

Curious to know MA's links to see exact data from the runs? Thx


Marknole
(Weather Watcher)
Mon Sep 04 2017 05:09 AM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge


Automatic winner for most insane GFS vs Florida run of all time.






And the 5:00 EDT update continues that trend. Time to take this seriously..


MichaelA
(Weather Analyst)
Mon Sep 04 2017 06:38 AM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

All of the 00z model runs are beginning to cluster on a severe hurricane impacting the entire FL peninsula. We'll see if the 06z and 12z runs continue the trend. At any rate, I'm going to start executing my preparedness plan before everyone begins to panic.

ftlaudbob
(Storm Chaser)
Mon Sep 04 2017 07:25 AM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

The trend seems to be that it's going into the GOM.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/090051.shtml?cone#contents


OrlandoDan
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Sep 04 2017 07:28 AM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

The 06Z run of the GFS calls for Irma going right up the spine of the Florida peninsula. i am starting to prepare my plans.

ftlaudbob
(Storm Chaser)
Mon Sep 04 2017 07:34 AM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

These models will change several times in the next few days.

Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Mon Sep 04 2017 07:35 AM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Can someone please explain to me what Herbert's Box is and where do I look for it? Ty!

MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Mon Sep 04 2017 07:40 AM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

0z Euro joins the GFS heading toward Cuba/ scraping the north coast then cuts north just east of Florida, and over the Western Bahamas, with a NC/SC border landfall on September 13th as a at 3/4.

6z GFS is similar at first to the 0z, but moves deeper into Cuba and exits north near HAvana, then crosses over Key West as a cat 4/5 on the morning of Sep 11th, then Landfalls again near Naples then rides just east of I-75 all the way up into Tennessee. Still overdoing pressures the whole way, but a major cat 4/5 the entire time.

Fortunately there is still some time and beyond 4 days the forecast becomes a bit difficult, so this will likely change, it may shift further west and go into the Gulf, or shift back east, the chances of no landfall (out to sea) are going down very quickly though. Continue to watch and monitor the system, the GFS's pressures are unrealistic especially with land interaction, but the idea of a major is not.

I suspect the models will shift (Again) today and tomorrow.


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Mon Sep 04 2017 07:44 AM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Quote:

Can someone please explain to me what Herbert's Box is and where do I look for it? Ty!




Geographic area defined by 1970's NHC forecaster Paul Hebert where statistically any hurricane passing through them has greater odds of affecting Florida than outside of it, more of a statistical thing than anything else, it's not a hard rule by any means. It's outlined on the South Florida Water management model chart.


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Mon Sep 04 2017 07:45 AM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Post adjustment

OrlandoDan
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Sep 04 2017 07:49 AM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Herbert Box. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hebert_Box

Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Mon Sep 04 2017 07:50 AM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Quote:

0z GFS Run:
Updated as it comes in:
Starts off similar to the last run,Irma's obviously over warmer water now and we may wake up to a stronger hurricane.
Are you saying this is a genuine scenario?

By 36 hours, it's slightly south of the prior GFS Run, maybe 15 or 20 nm, but generally stays the same course until at least 42 hours out.

By Wednesday morning it's getting dangerously close to Barbuda, eyewall goes over Barbuda, then St. Maarten and Anguilla. By the evening it's over the British Virgin Islands (US gets some, but not as much as the northern British VI)

It stays north of Puerto Rico (to avoid the inner core), but still gets tropical storm force and maybe hurricane force along the northern side of PR.

Closer to HIspaniola this run, hits cat 5 late Thursday night as it nears the Turks and Caicos, and over them Friday morning.

Slips west of the Turks and Caicos Friday night, between Cuba and the Bahamas.

Saturday morning just offshore Cuba, then rides the northern coastline of Cuba. Sunday morning drifts north from Cuba into the Florida straits.

Category 5 landfall upper Keys, headed north AM of Sep 11th, maintains strength through Lake Okeechobee with dirty side of storm going through the populated areas of south Florida. Over Orlando (Still cat 4) by afternoon

Back offshore by St. Augustine by the end of the night, still a major another landfall in central Georgia.

Automatic winner for most insane GFS vs Florida run of all time.

Posting it here for the record, 10th straight US landfall prediction for Irma.












Jumaduke
(Verified CFHC User)
Mon Sep 04 2017 07:51 AM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Hebert's Box is named for forecaster Paul Hebert, who determined that the majority of strong hurricanes that hit South Florida in the last 100 years had also passed through one of two specific regions in the Caribbean Sea. One Hebert Box is positioned near the Cayman Islands, while the other incorporates the Virgin Islands. Basically, if Irma passes over the Virgin Islands, Miami better watch out. Wikipedia isn't always the best source, but here's that link. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hebert_Box

ftlaudbob
(Storm Chaser)
Mon Sep 04 2017 07:56 AM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Quote:

Quote:

0z GFS Run:
Updated as it comes in:
Starts off similar to the last run,Irma's obviously over warmer water now and we may wake up to a stronger hurricane.
Are you saying this is a genuine scenario?

By 36 hours, it's slightly south of the prior GFS Run, maybe 15 or 20 nm, but generally stays the same course until at least 42 hours out.

By Wednesday morning it's getting dangerously close to Barbuda, eyewall goes over Barbuda, then St. Maarten and Anguilla. By the evening it's over the British Virgin Islands (US gets some, but not as much as the northern British VI)

It stays north of Puerto Rico (to avoid the inner core), but still gets tropical storm force and maybe hurricane force along the northern side of PR.

Closer to HIspaniola this run, hits cat 5 late Thursday night as it nears the Turks and Caicos, and over them Friday morning.

Slips west of the Turks and Caicos Friday night, between Cuba and the Bahamas.

Saturday morning just offshore Cuba, then rides the northern coastline of Cuba. Sunday morning drifts north from Cuba into the Florida straits.

Category 5 landfall upper Keys, headed north AM of Sep 11th, maintains strength through Lake Okeechobee with dirty side of storm going through the populated areas of south Florida. Over Orlando (Still cat 4) by afternoon

Back offshore by St. Augustine by the end of the night, still a major another landfall in central Georgia.

Automatic winner for most insane GFS vs Florida run of all time.

Posting it here for the record, 10th straight US landfall prediction for Irma.















If this happens,and we don't know that it will,it would be the biggest natual disater in U.S. history given that angle and the layout of Florida.


Beaker
(Registered User)
Mon Sep 04 2017 07:57 AM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Any idea on when the data from the recon flights will be in the models? (If not already).

MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Mon Sep 04 2017 08:06 AM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Recon data was in the model runs starting with this mornings 0z runs, they'll be able to send more planes when it gets closer, right now its still east of the Caribbean.

For Florida it just means going over the details of the hurricane plan, if the worst case of GFS pans out, it would mean incredible amounts of evacuations north through central Florida, and roads would be jammed up into Georiga. Other than going over a few options personally, I would wait until the system is a bit closer to the Bahamas and north of Hispaniola to start making harder calls.


Bev
(Weather Guru)
Mon Sep 04 2017 08:13 AM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

There's a plane in there now, but I don't know when that data will be incorporated into the models. Good question.

http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon.cgi?basin=al&mapping=cesium


B.C.Francis
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Sep 04 2017 08:37 AM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

I primarily watch weather hourly because of all the outdoor functions that I do where I work at the Crowne Plaza Oceanfront. From what I see this morning Florida seems to be in the crosshairs or close to it. We here at the hotel are scheduling a meeting to review our preparation plans in case we need to put them into affect. We had a good plan for Matthew and it worked great. I hope we don`t have to implement it again this year. I`ll be living on CFHC for the next 6-8 days. All in all it looks like some part of the south east is going to get some rude weather.

cieldumort
(Moderator)
Mon Sep 04 2017 10:05 AM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

A couple of quick points for all of us to keep in mind.

Always best not to focus too much on the exact center line forecast track -

*Average NHC track errors are about 175 and 225 miles at days 4 and 5, respectively. A simple rounding error could have Irma tracking over the islands and into the GOM, and all but miss Florida. Or, possibly, recurving out to sea and not touching any land directly at all.

*Damaging winds, extreme rainfall and tornadoes extend well out from any hurricane's center.

The right time to prepare for a hurricane if you live where they historically can strike is always, and now.


Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Mon Sep 04 2017 11:28 AM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Good advice! Just be prepared...I sent my husband and sons out to get more water, gas and propane tanks. If you have a generator, make sure you have enough fuel to use it. Also...with it this far out, you may want to think about getting flood insurance. I did that yesterday. Hurricane insurance does NOT cover flooding from a hurricane. Just stay safe no matter where it goes.

JMII
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Sep 04 2017 11:34 AM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Quote:

Category 5 landfall upper Keys, headed north AM of Sep 11th, maintains strength through Lake Okeechobee with dirty side of storm going through the populated areas of south Florida. Over Orlando (Still cat 4) by afternoon

If this happens,and we don't know that it will,it would be the biggest natual disater in U.S. history given that angle and the layout of Florida.




That model run is too horrible to even think about

I never paid attention to ONE model, but the south and west trend has continued over the last few updates with all models coming into a general agreement. The track has been steady W followed by a turn to the N, the a NE curve. The difference now is Irma runs longer W thus putting her in Cuba instead of the Bahamas. This means the N turn brings the track VERY close to the S FL regardless. So I am pretty much on full alert now.

Looking for forward to more aircraft data to help establish the strength and location of the blocking Bremuda high to the N. Next we have trough strength and timing as that is looking iffy - it might become a cut off low and not the pushing force once predicted. Her motion is still WSW so in the next update we should see W, followed by WNW. Anymore S and the west coast of FL starts to become a worry as we looking at a potential Charley situation. Seems hard to believe a storm that looked like a threat to Eastern Bahamas just 2 days ago could become a GOM event is pretty remarkable.

Only good news for now continues to be the small size of hurricane force winds unfortunately that too is predicted to change. Need to hope this front pushing the US builds a nice wall and kicks Irma back where she came from (the sea). If not... well it will be panel time again. Wondering if we will have a Matthew-like event with a coastal rider.


cieldumort
(Moderator)
Mon Sep 04 2017 11:37 AM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Current pattern suggests a window for Irma to nudge WNW today (although less likely). Otherwise, continued WSW to W track likely to continue.. putting more islands at risk of more substantial impacts. Right Front Quadrant in play.



MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Mon Sep 04 2017 11:41 AM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

12Z GFS run is going, at 42 hours out it's nearing Barbuda, about the same as the last run. By Wednesday morning southern eyewall over Anguilla and St. Martin, slightly north of the prior run (15-20nm).

Early Thursday morning the center of Irma would be 75nm north of the north coast of Puerto Rico, which is about 25nm further north than the earlier run.

Cat 4/5 over Turks and Caicos Friday morning, and by Saturday morning its west of there, but further away from the Cuban coastline than earlier runs. (50 vs 10 nm) this run keeps it north of Cuba.

Sunday morning Cat 5 very near South Florida, coming in just north of Key Largo Sunday afternoon. Keeps moving north with the Core and east side over Metro Miami, may exit back over the Atlantic near Ft. Pierce Monday morning, then clips Cape Canaveral before noon, Still Cat 4.

Another cat 3/4 landfall near Savannah, GA Late Monday night weakens quickly, but still a hurricane as it nears Charlotte, NC.

Again we go over these models to see trends not exact landfall information, this morning was extra far west, now its shifting a bit further east, still not good for the Southeast US and Florida.






MichaelA
(Weather Analyst)
Mon Sep 04 2017 11:41 AM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

When do the 12z runs drop? Waiting to see if they shift more to the West. The possibility of a very dangerous hurricane in the GOM is not out of the realm of possibilities.

Prospero
(Weather Guru)
Mon Sep 04 2017 12:36 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Two days from now we could be talking about a Cat 5 Irma hitting Houston, TX...

Yea, I know, unlikely, but just the shift from 24 hours ago reminds us how much things change in a very short period of time.


M.A.
(Weather Hobbyist)
Mon Sep 04 2017 01:13 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Agreed, but you also have to remember we are just getting real data now. Prior to the first aircraft pass, its all sat data. Nothing replaces actual dropsonde and flight recorded data. We all know the models are getting better every year. But still if someone were to ask " where this thing is going?" We all have to still shrug and say anywhere from here to there. But we certainly have a better idea than we did 10 years ago.

MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Mon Sep 04 2017 01:31 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

I believe with the better data input the track won't very too much from what it is now, maybe a bit west, maybe a bit east, but generally what we see is what we get, including the possibility for further up the east coast and out to sea, or slightly west for an north central or eastern Gulf hit. Middle is Florida, and this has shifted from NC/SC to here to be the most likley. (Although there is still a great deal of uncertainty) I think the models may trend east a bit, then back west over the next few days, it's going to be close enough to cause watches/warnings along Florida I do believe, maybe as early as Friday afternoon/Evening for eventual landfall somewhere Sunday or Monday.

HMON (replacement for the older GFDL) is a hurricane specific model that tends to do pretty well with developed systems like Irma, it only goes out a few days as well. The models in general are pretty tightly in agreement in the 4 day range. HWRF is similar, both show Irma become very large and intense systems, the ocean temps north of Cuba are some of the highest in the Atlantic so the energy is there.

HMON run keeps it north of Cuba and gets below 900mb, HWRF passes it right through Cuba (ends with it barely back in the Caribbean then turning it right back north into Cuba 955mb vs 872mb on the HMON, which doesn't take it over land)

Irma is still east of the Leewards, so we have a few days to watch it.



MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Mon Sep 04 2017 02:17 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

12Z Euro has Irma moving similar pattern over Barbuda early Wednesday morning, and Anguilla and St. Martin get the core later that morning, then cuts through the British Virgin islands late in the afternoon core stays north of Puerto Rico.

Northern edge of the Core along the Turks/Caicos Thursday night. Well clear of Hispaniola to the north. Does pass directly over the Inagua Islands early Friday morning as a cat 3/4.

Seems to be a bit further northwest on this run.

By Saturday morning it's between Andros Island in the Bahamas and Cuba (closer to Cuba). Cat 4 near the same position as the 12zGFS heading nw.

Landfall Miami or razors edge close (Western eyewall over MIA/FTL) Midday Sunday 926mb (High end cat 4)

Back over water Monday heading north.

Cat 3/4 landfall Savannah, GA Tuesday Morning, Sep 12th



TheOtherRick
(Weather Watcher)
Mon Sep 04 2017 02:44 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

You can evacuate the barrier islands, but for the people of Florida, there's no place to run. Not like you can head to the other side of the state. And anyone that thinks you can evacuate Florida northward on the interstates hasn't driven on them lately. it's bumper to bumper already. Hard to believe it could be that strong that long over land.

Lamar-Plant City
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Sep 04 2017 03:06 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Quote:

You can evacuate the barrier islands, but for the people of Florida, there's no place to run. Not like you can head to the other side of the state. And anyone that thinks you can evacuate Florida northward on the interstates hasn't driven on them lately. it's bumper to bumper already. Hard to believe it could be that strong that long over land.


Charlie wasn't supposed to retain speed and energy too long after landfall, yet my parents experienced almost 130mph winds off of Lake Pierce that nearly destroyed their house just outside of Lake Wales....they CAN retain speed over Florida.

MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Mon Sep 04 2017 03:48 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Euro ensembles, median is right through the Keys and up the spine, this is a west shift from earlier runs of the ensembles



Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Mon Sep 04 2017 03:49 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Let's all hope that the 5pm advisory shoves it east and makes it a "fish spinner"; but I'm guessing that's not going to happen. I have friends that live in Tampa saying "This will NEVER hit us." I'm also telling my relatives that live in the NE to get ready. They say the same thing. I'm prepared, I guess that's all you can do.

leecherney
(Registered User)
Mon Sep 04 2017 04:04 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

I'm in Delray Beach, with a house that has a generator and impact glass. We are still flying to NY Friday morning.

OrlandoDan
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Sep 04 2017 04:18 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

I'm in Orlando and I'm in the area that the rest of the people of South Forida evacuate to!!!! I went through the canes of 2004.

It's too early to tell with Irma. I am making my plans to make plans and that may eventualy turn to taking actions .i am just saying that it may be time to plan to make plans in the entire Florida peninsula. Please don't attack me for saying this. There seems to be a note on this board of one-upmanship. Know what I mean?


madmumbler
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Sep 04 2017 04:18 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Then they're idiots because I'm in Tampa and I'm scared poopless right now this thing will come through as higher than a Cat 2, regardless of where it actually makes landfall.

Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Mon Sep 04 2017 04:39 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

No, I didn't mean to imply that they are idiots. It could turn east (doubting that at this point) but you never know. I have no idea where it's going---I'm just saying people need to be prepared. I had a woman from TX tell me not to forget life jackets. I never would have thought about buying them. Good advice!

doug
(Weather Analyst)
Mon Sep 04 2017 05:16 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

I really don't know what you are talking about. It isn't unusual to be on alert. We should be. But this won't be Harvey if it does strike Florida it will move along in hours What my family did today was going over our plans and insuring we are prepared...as prepared as we can be. Tomorrow is an important day for Florida. 5 day cones tend to be fairly accurate. If things stay as they are now the storm my well turn to the east of the peninsula.

Lamar-Plant City
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Sep 04 2017 05:22 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Just stocked up on a few things. Walmart was a bit of a madhouse which is not unusual for a holiday, but they DID have a LOT of water. Worker said they had a semi full of water show up this morning. It was running out the door pretty quickly along with D batteries, lanterns and any other supplies folks could think of. Harvey has spooked a lot of folks back into respect for hurricanes. Friend of mine in West Palm Beach found the water all gone at the local Publix by 10am this morning. Store should be able to restock multiple times before the weekend. I really don't like the looks of the setup with this storm....

OrlandoDan
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Sep 04 2017 05:33 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

We appreciate the status report on the goods and services and so early. Just goes to reinforce that many people are aware.

Prospero
(Weather Guru)
Mon Sep 04 2017 05:46 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

My wife is diabetic and has insulin that needs refrigeration. We are five blocks from Boca Ciega Bay in Pinellas County, on a slight ridge so dry until a 20 foot storm surge. But with old oak trees are everywhere we could possibly be a few days without power when a high wind comes by.

I see several hurricane shelters in the area, and one "special needs" shelter. Would this be an option for a generator powered refrigerator for insulin?

I think I'll order a car cigarette powered cooler that we can plug into our car for her meds...

We may send her on the road, but the last time Pinellas County was evacuated the gridlock on the bridges was crazy and several friends eventually made it to Orlando to be hammered there when it was calm here (Charlie).

I'll ride the storm out here, as foolish as it is. Unless a cat 5 totally aims for Gulfport and St Pete...


JMII
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Sep 04 2017 05:55 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Quote:

I'm in Orlando and I'm in the area that the rest of the people of South Forida evacuate to!!!! I went through the canes of 2004.




Some of these models runs put pretty much EVERYONE in FL in some kind of tropical event. Charley did plenty of damage in central FL because our state is low (no hills) and the southern half has Lake O and the Everglades to give storms some water to draw up. Wilma's strength showed that. My normal plan is (as indicated) to head to Orlando because there are lots of hotels and generally doesn't get big winds. However that might not work if Irma tracks up the middle. A more western track puts most of FL on the dirty side, plus the Big Bend area could feel effects. A more eastern track likely gives us a stronger storm (using the energy from the Gulfstream) but would keep the really bad damage on just the eastern shoreline communities provided the eye wall hugs the coast.

The evacuation of the Keys will be critical if things play out as currently predicted since just driving to Miami/Ft Laud/Naples isn't really getting out of harms way. Plus the time required to get everyone out using just one 2 lane road puts massive pressure on our friends down there.


OrlandoDan
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Sep 04 2017 06:05 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Totally on the same page as you are. Winds were tough here in Orlando in 2004, but nothing like the west or east coast through the 3 canes that hit.

Btw. Just heard that State of Emergency is in effect from Governor Rick Scott.


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Mon Sep 04 2017 06:25 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Coming in late to the 18z, anyway slightly north in the near term, over Turks and caicos Friday morning, Landfall near Key Largo Cat 5 Sunday morning, and rides up the entire spine of Florida inland, still a major hurricane over Orlando when it moves there overnight Sunday into Monday, the up to just west of Jacksonville Monday morning, still a hurricane, and doesn't give up hurricane strength until around Augusta, GA or slightly north of there Tuesday morning.

Today's 18z is faster than yesterday's 18z.

Good, it moves fast, bad, category 5 winds and surge dwindling to Category 3 hitting the entire east coast of Florida and well inland. Those in south florida would start to see some of Irma's bands Saturday, with the worst not being until Sunday morning.





OrlandoDan
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Sep 04 2017 06:40 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Prospero. I had a sister that was highly dependent on insulin. In the short term, use a nice big cooler and stock up on ice. In the longer term, understand your options. A good cooler that is big and stocked should last a few days.

GoBigSurf
(Verified CFHC User)
Mon Sep 04 2017 06:44 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

First, thanks again for the great people here that I found back in 2004 when Francis and Jean raked across Martin/St Lucie County. Was very stressed with a very pregnant wife at the time!

Local businesses were hopping this morning selling out of water in St Lucie County (Central FL east coast). Good to see locals getting prepared. Going to check with my family in the upper Keys to see what they are planning.

If Irma decides to ride up the "spine" of Florida, what kind of water surge would the central East coast of FL see? I guess it would depend if it sticks at Cat4 or whatever strength it holds, but if it stays in the middle of FL, the east coast would get less surge right?

This South to North direction is not going to make it easy to get out of the way. I am worried about those older homes in the middle of the State that have never really experienced this kind of wind, and like others have mentioned, old Oaks, etc that are going to add to the overall mess.


ftlaudbob
(Storm Chaser)
Mon Sep 04 2017 06:53 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Quote:

First, thanks again for the great people here that I found back in 2004 when Francis and Jean raked across Martin/St Lucie County. Was very stressed with a very pregnant wife at the time!

Local businesses were hopping this morning selling out of water in St Lucie County (Central FL east coast). Good to see locals getting prepared. Going to check with my family in the upper Keys to see what they are planning.

If Irma decides to ride up the "spine" of Florida, what kind of water surge would the central East coast of FL see? I guess it would depend if it sticks at Cat4 or whatever strength it holds, but if it stays in the middle of FL, the east coast would get less surge right?

This South to North direction is not going to make it easy to get out of the way. I am worried about those older homes in the middle of the State that have never really experienced this kind of wind, and like others have mentioned, old Oaks, etc that are going to add to the overall mess.




The east coast would be on the dirty side of the storm and given the counter clock motion would also get the worst storm surge.


Prospero
(Weather Guru)
Mon Sep 04 2017 06:53 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Quote:

Prospero. I had a sister that was highly dependent on insulin. In the short term, use a nice big cooler and stock up on ice. In the longer term, understand your options. A good cooler that is big and stocked should last a few days.





Thanks, OrlandoDan!

I am Googling "Insulin Coolers". There are some good solutions for maybe three pens, but for a week or so of no power the options drop off drastically. So I am looking at basic DC powered small refrigerators and realize I have my work cut out for me.

We have several battery operated fans for our comfort when the power is out, and flashlights, etc. We have propane to cook food before it spoils, and canned food for regular meals. Instant coffee and creamer of course, and plenty of water (for a week anyway). So keeping her insulin cool is the main objective we need to nail down.


LilE
(Registered User)
Mon Sep 04 2017 06:56 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

They aren't talking to much about the Gulf Coast, well they have on and off. I'm not being critical, I just wish they had a crystal ball. lol I'm in Panama City up in the Panhandle. When do we think we will have a better understanding of forecast track info?

I live with my 84 year old Mom. she's old and I'm chronically ill. We have no family or friends to help.

My parents lost their house in Hurricane Opal 1995 and were displaced for a year. We had to mandatory evacuate then and they lived in town. the sheriffs were going door to door telling people to leave, if they wouldn't they gave them body bags and asked them to write #s for next of kin on their arms. The local media even left. They did not reverse flow the traffic so we sat on I-10 for 7 hours in bumper to bumper traffic as far as you could see with a lot of hysterical people. No police anywhere. People coming from Pensacola, Ft. Walton and then P.C. were all alone on I-10. When the weather started coming in we actually thought we were going to die on I-10, sounds funny to me now but it was pretty scary.
Just a bit of background and I'm new here.

Yes, I'm fretting a bit right now!

Its nice to meet everyone and if I'm not posting proper info I'll be in the graveyard, right? lol
Laura


RedingtonBeachGuy
(Moderator)
Mon Sep 04 2017 07:25 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Quote:

When do we think we will have a better understanding of forecast track info?




There are several updates each day from the National Hurricane Center which are typically disseminated by your local television stations. With each passing day we become more and more confident in the eventual track Irma will take. Therefore, it's time for you to put a plan in action. Will you stay? Evacuate? Etc..

Always follow your local emergency management's instructions. You can find them here at this link for Bay County and Panama City:

Bay County EMC


JMII
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Sep 04 2017 07:33 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Quote:

There are some good solutions for maybe three pens, but for a week or so of no power the options drop off drastically. So I am looking at basic DC powered small refrigerators and realize I have my work cut out for me.




I am in the same boat regarding insulin thus the reason I'm stock piling ice NOW. Already have enough for one small cooler just from the ice marker in the fridge. I figure I'll need enough to survive 3 to 4 days without power, after that enough gas to drive to where power is (got friends in Tampa & Atlanta). The long game isn't to stay put with generators and all that nonsense, just drive to a better location once the roads are cleared. A lot of people stick around and try to "tough it out"... ummm no thanks. 3 days after Wilma it was apparent the power wasn't coming back on soon (took 10 days FYI) so we drove north and just kept tabs on situation back home. Panels were up and insurance would cover whatever we left behind.

Speaking of which - quick tip: take pictures of all YOUR stuff: Inside, outside, vehicles, furniture, etc so insurance can verify their condition. We also take pics/videos of the house with all the panels up to prove we protected our asset as best as possible.


Daniel Jones
(Registered User)
Mon Sep 04 2017 07:36 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Quote:

Quote:

Prospero. I had a sister that was highly dependent on insulin. In the short term, use a nice big cooler and stock up on ice. In the longer term, understand your options. A good cooler that is big and stocked should last a few days.





Thanks, OrlandoDan!

I am Googling "Insulin Coolers". There are some good solutions for maybe three pens, but for a week or so of no power the options drop off drastically. So I am looking at basic DC powered small refrigerators and realize I have my work cut out for me.

We have several battery operated fans for our comfort when the power is out, and flashlights, etc. We have propane to cook food before it spoils, and canned food for regular meals. Instant coffee and creamer of course, and plenty of water (for a week anyway). So keeping her insulin cool is the main objective we need to nail down.




You may want to look into Cooluli. The one I linked, while not the most visually appealing, is at least available now via Prime One-Day for the Orlando area. I have all 3 sizes of their mini fridges, and while they're not cold enough to keep food for extended periods, they will work for keeping insulin cold enough for several days. My mother-in-law uses insulin, and we actually keep one of these plugged in and cooled for use in the event the power goes out. Also comes with plugs to use in the car or even USB power banks. Like most thermoelectric fridges, they only cool to about 40 degrees below ambient, so keep that in mind when using them.


lunkerhunter
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Sep 04 2017 07:37 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

YETI Roady 20 or larger Tundra.
get block ice, not cube.


justmeinflorida
(Registered User)
Mon Sep 04 2017 07:38 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Quote:

Quote:

There are some good solutions for maybe three pens, but for a week or so of no power the options drop off drastically. So I am looking at basic DC powered small refrigerators and realize I have my work cut out for me.




I am in the same boat regarding insulin thus the reason I'm stock piling ice NOW. Already have enough for one small cooler just from the ice marker in the fridge. I figure I'll need enough to survive 3 to 4 days without power, after that enough gas to drive to where power is (got friends in Tampa & Atlanta). The long game isn't to stay put with generators and all that nonsense, just drive to a better location once the roads are cleared. A lot of people stick around and try to "tough it out"... ummm no thanks. 3 days after Wilma it was apparent the power wasn't coming back on soon (took 10 days FYI) so we drove north and just kept tabs on situation back home. Panels were up and insurance would cover whatever we left behind.

Speaking of which - quick tip: take pictures of all YOUR stuff: Inside, outside, vehicles, furniture, etc so insurance can verify their condition. We also take pics/videos of the house with all the panels up to prove we protected our asset as best as possible.




FRIO insulin wallet gets activated with water and will keep insulin cool for 2 days, then you just wet it again to re-activate. http://www.frioinsulincoolingcase.com/how-the-frio-insulin-cooling-case-works.html


COML43
(Registered User)
Mon Sep 04 2017 07:53 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Prospero- Also consider dry ice and stock up on crush activated sports medicine ice packs. They are VERY handy in keeping meds chilled "on the go" and in unexpected outages. -Murph

OrlandoDan
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Sep 04 2017 07:58 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

I will say that the tall pines came down in the Orlando area in the the three canes of 2004. Live Oaks too, but a lot of pines came down. Center was only about 5 miles from me with Charley. Had some friends that had big Live Oaks come down on their house. Took months to fully repair. I won't mess with thinking Orlando residential areas that are near big trees or wooded areas are safe. Big hotel areas are safer. That's my concern, that big Live Oaks come down.

Too soon to know and probably a bit premature.


Prospero
(Weather Guru)
Mon Sep 04 2017 08:07 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Thanks Daniel Jones, just ordered a Cooluli which will come tomorrow free delivery (Amazon Prime).

I'm interested in the FRIO that justmeinflorida mentions, and may add that to out Diabetic home and road kit.

Insulin, and Diabetes in general definitely adds a level of concern when preparing for any kind of storm or power outage.

Thank you ALL and I am certain your info will be valuable for many others as well!

I'll copy this thread in part to the Ask/Tell forum for any further discussion...


Bev
(Weather Guru)
Mon Sep 04 2017 08:22 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

To those of you better at reading the model data. How far across are the hurricane winds predicted to be nearing Fla?

ftlaudbob
(Storm Chaser)
Mon Sep 04 2017 08:25 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge *DELETED*

Post deleted by RedingtonBeachGuy

Doombot!
(Weather Guru)
Mon Sep 04 2017 08:43 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Quote:

To those of you better at reading the model data. How far across are the hurricane winds predicted to be nearing Fla?




There are some "worst case", but realistic models rolling out now. Many of them show an "up the spine" approach that (figuratively) splits Florida in twain with the eye path.

In this case, all of Florida would get hurricane force winds (perhaps not the panhandle).

Keep an eye out, and don't panic. Take action when needed.


leecherney
(Registered User)
Mon Sep 04 2017 08:48 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

I notice the GFS went a bit west again, looks like in at Naples?

Prospero
(Weather Guru)
Mon Sep 04 2017 08:53 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

I'm not a pro, so looking at the HMON IRMA-11L 850 hPa Height (dam), Wind (kt), and MSLP Center (hPa) for Saturday, September 9, 2017 at 18z, between Cuba and Florida, is the Max Wind 211.1kt an actual prediction??

Is this at the ground level???

HMON IRMA-11L...


Doombot!
(Weather Guru)
Mon Sep 04 2017 09:14 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Quote:

I'm not a pro, so looking at the HMON IRMA-11L 850 hPa Height (dam), Wind (kt), and MSLP Center (hPa) for Saturday, September 9, 2017 at 18z, between Cuba and Florida, is the Max Wind 211.1kt an actual prediction??

Is this at the ground level???

HMON IRMA-11L...




No! This is at 850mb. You're looking for Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP) - found here: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis...os=0&ypos=0

Edit: Paradoxically meteorologists measure altitude in millibars as well. Common heights are MSL, 850MB, 500MB, 200MB, 50 (and sometimes 20MB)


Prospero
(Weather Guru)
Mon Sep 04 2017 09:20 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

OK thanks!

So basically 145 mph at sea level. Still impressive.

Question, 850mb. What is the "mb"? I'm thinking "millibars" but have no idea how that relates to the models. Altitude? Pressure?

I may be asking something that has no quick easy answer...



Edit: just read you edit and explanation!


JMII
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Sep 04 2017 10:19 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Quote:

In this case, all of Florida would get hurricane force winds (perhaps not the panhandle).




Currently hurricane force winds extend 40 miles from the center and TS out 140... this will likely increase so full state coverage is possible especially for areas south of Orlando. Currently Irma is still small compared to Wilma which had 90 mile wide hurricane force winds and almost unreal 230 miles worth of TS force. While you shouldn't focus on the line down the middle the worst winds/damage will occur there. For example in Andrew I lived 60 miles away and so we only got borderline Cat 1 winds vs the Cat 5 winds that hit southern Dade County. The resulting difference damage wise can be quite dramatic, your talking just some tree branches snapped vs having parts of your roof ripped off. The worry is ANY small shift in the track during the land encounter means you go from 60 mph winds to 130 mph winds in your backyard thus you have to prepare as if you will see the full force of nature.

While bad for the islands Irma's current track should give us good radar fixes on the storm during the critical Weds/Thurs time frame when she is near Puerto Rico.


Lamar-Plant City
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Sep 04 2017 10:30 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Quote:



Currently hurricane force winds extend 40 miles from the center and TS out 140... this will likely increase so full state coverage is possible especially for areas south of Orlando. Currently Irma is still small compared to Wilma which had 90 mile wide hurricane force winds and almost unreal 230 miles worth of TS force. While you shouldn't focus on the line down the middle the worst winds/damage will occur there. For example in Andrew I lived 60 miles away and so we only got borderline Cat 1 winds vs the Cat 5 winds that hit southern Dade County. The resulting difference damage wise can be quite dramatic, your talking just some tree branches snapped vs having parts of your roof ripped off. The worry is ANY small shift in the track during the land encounter means you go from 60 mph winds to 130 mph winds in your backyard thus you have to prepare as if you will see the full force of nature.

While bad for the islands Irma's current track should give us good radar fixes on the storm during the critical Weds/Thurs time frame when she is near Puerto Rico.




The same happened with Charlie. My parents' place is right at 50 miles east of where I live. They had 130 mph winds and incredible damage to trees and structures (80k damage to their house) while we didn't even have TS force winds. Will be interesting to see how the wind fields expand around this monster....just hope I don't see them first hand!


lunkerhunter
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Sep 04 2017 10:32 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

please chime in
for 24hrs the HMON and GFS have called for sub 890mbar at S FL landfall so why is the NHC at 130mph at 120 hours? thx.


Mike V
(Verified CFHC User)
Mon Sep 04 2017 10:39 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Quote:

. For example in Andrew I lived 60 miles away and so we only got borderline Cat 1 winds vs the Cat 5 winds that hit southern Dade County. The resulting difference damage wise can be quite dramatic, your talking just some tree branches snapped vs having parts of your roof ripped off. The worry is ANY small shift in the track during the land encounter means you go from 60 mph winds to 130 mph winds in your backyard thus you have to prepare as if you will see the full force of nature.





When you mention this, I was in the Eyewall of Andrew and it was not fun at all. In the aftermath, to me what was amazing was as you crossed roughly around SW 30th street on US1, it was like you crossed into the twilight zone. The amount of damage before that line was nothing compared to what was after.


M.A.
(Weather Hobbyist)
Mon Sep 04 2017 10:47 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Because the HMON is the highest wind speed and the lowest pressure. They take an average for intensity of the models and make the best educated guess.

On a second note, I haven't seen any thought of the Okeechobee dike. This I think would be one of my foremost concerns if I lived south of the lake. There has been talk for years about the need to reconstruct it. I know they have worked on it. Just food for thought.


lunkerhunter
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Sep 04 2017 11:18 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Okeechobee water level is 13.65 and they try to maintain it between 12.5 and 15.5 so water level isn't a problem and the dikes are substantial enough (and sloped) that I don't think wind would be an issue

lunkerhunter
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Sep 04 2017 11:32 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Total heat energy content has been rising along northern coast of Cuba

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1/work/HHP/NEW/cahhp.gif


Lamar-Plant City
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Sep 05 2017 12:46 AM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Quote:

Okeechobee water level is 13.65 and they try to maintain it between 12.5 and 15.5 so water level isn't a problem and the dikes are substantial enough (and sloped) that I don't think wind would be an issue



That dike should be proof against any rain Irma will bring. Irma is scooting right along and inland flooding shouldn't be an issue. It was built after a storm parked over the lake and flooded the area around. I want to say the 1928 storm.


Doombot!
(Weather Guru)
Tue Sep 05 2017 01:05 AM
Continuity.

What I find intresting is the continuity between the model runs. In years past, you'd have models all over the place, sometimes as soon as <36h out.

With Harvey (and so far with Irma), the models are pretty tightly clustered. While there is overall movement, all of the packages seem to trend the same way at the same time.

Have these two storms been easier to predict? Has the NHC reigned in their algorithms? Am I missing something?

It seems odd that for the last 48 hours most models are honing into and maintaing one general location, 5-7 days out.

D!


TPuppy
(Registered User)
Tue Sep 05 2017 01:43 AM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

I believe that the Naples and Ft Myers area has had an enormous amount of rain and flooding in the last few weeks. Will that make any difference or has that already drained off?

MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Tue Sep 05 2017 03:25 AM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

overnight mdoel runs:

0z 6FS just north of Caribbean islands (enough for some to feel the eyewall) Starting tomorrow morning, Puerto Rico escapes the core to the north,

Turks and Caicos get a direct hit Friday early morning cat 4, it reaches cat 5 between Cuba and the Bahamas, turn north starts early Sunday, by Sunday morning cat 5 landfall in middle keys, then sw landfall south of Naplesup through state, over Orlando Monday morning, still Major, moves just west of Jacksonville into Georgia by the afternoon, still hurricane. possible loses hurricane strength near Augusta, GA late that night and moves toward Charlotte.then through the NC mountains into TN/VA and up into the great lakes.

0z Euro clips the northeastern Leewards, stays north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, goes over the Inagua islands Friday morning, landfall Cuba's north coast, Saturday morning, exits Cuba then landfalls cat 4 in middle Keys late Sunday night, near Orlando by Monday night (still strong, but maybe weakens to Cat 2). This run gets weakened by Cuba interaction but still comes up through Florida. Remains head up to Augusta and the NC mountains do the rest in.

In short very similar to the last run, slightly west, but still up through Florida, Euro does hit Cuba this run, while the GFS does not, and the GFS winds up being stronger because of it. EPS members have also shifted slightly west, of those getting into the Gulf they still turn it back into Florida.

Again, model talk is in the lounge for a reason, it's just that, the NHC forecast is the best bet, and it really is just a guess beyond 4 days or so.



ftlaudbob
(Storm Chaser)
Tue Sep 05 2017 07:39 AM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

I have been tracking these things for a very long time, and I can not recall ever seeing a more perfectly shaped Hurricane.

Kraig
(Weather Watcher)
Tue Sep 05 2017 08:05 AM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

175MPH AT 8AM!

JMII
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Sep 05 2017 08:07 AM
Re: Continuity.

Quote:

With Harvey (and so far with Irma), the models are pretty tightly clustered. While there is overall movement, all of the packages seem to trend the same way at the same time.




Gotta assume the data, science and computer power have all increased leading to much better forecasting. I too remember when you could basically ignore the 5 day cone because it was so far off.

Overnight we had another shift S and W of said cone. This starting to look like a hybrid of a Charley / Wilma over land track. After going thru the middle to lower Keys it appears Irma would have a landfall on the SW coast between Naples and Sarasota (as Cat 4) with a track N to slightly NNE thru most of the state all the way to Jacksonville.

Given the environment Irma will likely be a Cat 5 today and maintain that (or darn close) until it reaches Puerto Rico with only ERC causes small up/down fluctuations.


ftlaudbob
(Storm Chaser)
Tue Sep 05 2017 08:19 AM
Re: Continuity.

It's a 5,175mph!

B.C.Francis
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Sep 05 2017 08:19 AM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Wow, no matter what, it looks more than likely the weather should start going down hill starting Saturday if the trends continue. Florida should really be concerned and take this seriously. If it should go into the gulf people in the big bend probably get spanked not to mention the west coastal areas.. I know its 5 days out but its really coming together for a Florida major weather event. How strong is the weather system that's going to turn Irma more north? Seems like all of a sudden it makes this dramatic turn and moves N then N NE

lunkerhunter
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Sep 05 2017 08:32 AM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

looking at the funk top convection has slowed. no more green and more dark red. and eyewall looks jagged. ERC?

Prospero
(Weather Guru)
Tue Sep 05 2017 08:43 AM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Post removed by Cieldumort



MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Tue Sep 05 2017 08:48 AM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Quick update, Harvey up to 175mph Cat 5, very bad for the islands even if there isn't a direct hit (Eyewall is huge)

6z GFS similar to 0z run but slightly east, landfall MiamI Cat 5 midday Sunday, then exits near Ft. Pierce, second landfall cat 4/5 north of Savannah late Monday.

Very limited time to update today.


chance
(Verified CFHC User)
Tue Sep 05 2017 09:02 AM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

It was trending West which made me believe it might keep trending that way But now the 06 GFS is back east again. We could get trends east or west but in my years watching these i have yet to see 1 go the exact path 5 days out like they have this at.

Like Charlie when the turn happens is the Key and as we know charlie was in the cone but not expected to turn till Tampa so even it it moved more west or east with the track ne ready as if it was coming to you.


lunkerhunter
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Sep 05 2017 09:38 AM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Looking at Clark's forecast track chart the models are flip-flopping E/W and there is a greater disagreement after the turn northward

lunkerhunter
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Sep 05 2017 11:40 AM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Surprised Irma is at 180 mph with the so so convection and unimpressive pressure. It must be a very well-balanced and efficient.

doug
(Weather Analyst)
Tue Sep 05 2017 11:41 AM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Started thinking last week that this storm was on a track that resembled Donna-1960...Hmmm! hope not.

JMII
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Sep 05 2017 11:56 AM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Very scary visuals of the GFS model run: https://www.ventusky.com

cieldumort
(Moderator)
Tue Sep 05 2017 12:08 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Quote:

Surprised Irma is at 180 mph with the so so convection and unimpressive pressure. It must be a very well-balanced and efficient.




Convection has been quite impressive - very cold cloud tops overnight. While there has been some warming during the morning, Irma remains a phenomenally well organized hurricane with cloud tops that are sufficiently cold, but if the trend of warming continues, we could see Irma's intensity back down some going forward later today. (TBD)

The pressure may seem to be a bit high for the 180 MPH, but keep in mind that the environmental pressures are not low to begin with, with very strong High pressure just to her north - all relative




Rotor
(Registered User)
Tue Sep 05 2017 12:13 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

My take as well. Rode that one out in Cocoa Beach.

cieldumort
(Moderator)
Tue Sep 05 2017 12:18 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge



chance
(Verified CFHC User)
Tue Sep 05 2017 12:24 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Does anyone think like me the models keep trending along? I have never seen them stay on the exact path for 5 days in a row.

What time do the 12Z GFS and Euro start coming in thanks.


IsoFlame
(Weather Hobbyist)
Tue Sep 05 2017 12:29 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Mike, I perfectly understand the "Harvey" typo in your last post! I have a request for Irma lounge visitors (outside of the impact zone) that will be very helpful in monitoring Irma as she nears my location one block off the Atlantic Ocean in east central Florida. After she makes the forecasted right turn and departs Cuba's north coast, please post any observations of eye wall diameter and current (or potential) eye wall replacements and eye diameter constrictions or expansions. Also, any significant wobbles west or east will be helpful to those within 50 miles of Irma's ultimate track. This type of information posted in the lounge helped me make final "tweaks" regarding my personal shelter in place hurricane plan (before we lost power) as Hurricane Matthew moved out of the northern Bahamas and tracked toward my location last October.

MissBecky
(Weather Guru)
Tue Sep 05 2017 12:29 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Quote:

Does anyone think like me the models keep trending along? I have never seen them stay on the exact path for 5 days in a row.

What time do the 12Z GFS and Euro start coming in thanks.




The 12z GFS is actually still coming in right now.

Tropical Tidbits


JMII
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Sep 05 2017 12:42 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Quote:

The 12z GFS is actually still coming in right now.




Right up the east coast of FL - nightmare scenario given the population density of this area.


Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Tue Sep 05 2017 01:00 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Quote:

Quote:

The 12z GFS is actually still coming in right now.




Right up the east coast of FL - nightmare scenario given the population density of this area.


Would you mind posting a link to this latest run? I'm having a hard time finding it. Thank you!

lunkerhunter
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Sep 05 2017 01:07 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

all the 5's I've seen have had a solid green ring on the funktop and Erma only had a little overnight and didn't even have much of the light red today.

JMII
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Sep 05 2017 01:08 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Quote:

Would you mind posting a link to this latest run? I'm having a hard time finding it. Thank you!




https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis...os=0&ypos=0

https://www.ventusky.com is really good too for the visuals but might be one run behind.

Hit the play button on each site to watch the forecast over the given time period.


WestFLJess
(Registered User)
Tue Sep 05 2017 01:12 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

wow.

"Based on these data the initial intensity is set at 155 kt for this
advisory. This makes Irma the strongest hurricane in the Atlantic
basin outside of the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico in the NHC
records."

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/051446.shtml


lunkerhunter
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Sep 05 2017 01:33 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Paralleling the east coast of FL and staying off shore actually could be ideal to keep the front right quadrant away. That could be the difference in only feeling Cat 1-3 effects versus 4/5 and would reduce storm surge

JMII
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Sep 05 2017 01:40 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Quote:

Paralleling the coast of FL and staying off shore actually could be ideal to keep the front right quadrant away. That could be the difference in only feeling Cat 1-3 effects versus 4/5 and would reduce storm surge




Yes off shore would be the key here, similar to Matthew. However a slightly drift to the W puts all the major cities of S FL in the eye wall.


typhoon_tip
(Meteorologist)
Tue Sep 05 2017 01:55 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge


Particularly true given the circumstance(s) with Irma, ...folks should not focus on whether the 'eye' its self stays on or off-shore.

This GFS solution is precariously close enough for obvious reasons, but more specifically ... an expanding wind field in association with a N turning Hurricane ...from an initial pressure that has plumbed (possibly) toward or exceeding 900 mb, would be very problematic for the entire eastern half of the Florida Peninsula.

Things can and obviously will change, but as is, Irma may not be moving appreciably fast as it is making its closest pass with the southern part of the state; there may be lesser benefit of forward motion subtracting from the western semi-circle for a polar-ward turning TCs.

It is a foregone conclusion that dealing with top tier juggernaut cyclones of this nature that every aspect and action to protect lives first, and property second, should begin in earnest.


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Tue Sep 05 2017 01:58 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Midday models (Main two):

12Z Gfs:
Turks Caicos Friday morning Cat 4/5
Eyewall scrapes Miami up to West Palm Beach Sunday, Cat 5
Cat 4/5 landfall near Savannah, GA Monday afternoon
Slightly east of prior run, and keeps barely offshore the east coast of Florida, but eyewall within major met areas.

12Z Euro (Running now):
Midday tomorrow, Cat 5 landfall over St. Martin.
Clears PR to the north, still some affects though. Stays north of DR on Thursday.
Friday Midday over Inagua Island, Cat 4/5 (Of note Bay of Campeche system develops)
Saturday Midday, over Central Cuba
Sunday Midday, exiting into Florida Straits near Havana
Monday, Landfall between Naples and Ft. Myers cat 4/5 then straight north up the state, into Georgia by Tuesday.

CMC: Hits PR, Plows through Cuba, then turns north into the Gulf, landfall near Panama City Cat 2. (West outlier) Already too far south.


HMON:
Midday Sunday landfall at West Palm Beach Cat 5 (briefly, then back offshore)
HWRF:
Landfall northern Cuba coast Saturday Morning, Cat 5
Back over Water north of Cuba Sunday Morning, Cat 3 (West of Key west)


lunkerhunter
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Sep 05 2017 02:24 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Love the chart thanks. Time to edit LOL. 185/926. Which is still exactly my point very efficient considering the pressure and no green on the funktop would seem there is still room to go

doug
(Weather Analyst)
Tue Sep 05 2017 02:38 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

The Euro and GFS are differing today after some trend toward agreement yesterday. The difference seems to be that the GFS senses a weakness in the blocking high pressure system to the NE of Florida on Sunday while the Euro seems to sense more of that ridge's influence to the north and additional higher pressure to the NW keeping IRMA south and further west on the north coast of Cuba. at 120 hours. IMO, so far this year GFS seems to have been the better of the two models when it comes to predicting movements. The HMON shifted eastward substantially.

eulogia
(Weather Watcher)
Tue Sep 05 2017 03:21 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

I want to thank you all for the expert interpretations you've given us over the years.

chance
(Verified CFHC User)
Tue Sep 05 2017 03:28 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

I wonder if this will effect the 5pm update track? they like the gfs and Euro and like to split the difference which to me is dumb to do but i can see the NHC having the 5pm going right up the middle of the state picking right between the 1st 2 models

StormHound
(Weather Guru)
Tue Sep 05 2017 03:46 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Quote:

I wonder if this will effect the 5pm update track? they like the gfs and Euro and like to split the difference which to me is dumb to do but i can see the NHC having the 5pm going right up the middle of the state picking right between the 1st 2 models




Splitting the difference right now might be the thing to do. First of all, the path models look fairly evenly split between west edge of Florida and east edge, with everything in between. It's really too far out to have a great deal of confidence in any of those variations, so splitting the difference keeps everyone in Florida on alert. Favoring one or the other too much may give some people a false sense of security. The NHC has a lot of things to balance this far out, and one of them is the reaction of the people potentially in a target area. You don't want panic, but you also don't want anyone thinking they are so safe they ignore the situation. I was reading that many people did not evacuate in front of Harvey because they thought it was "only" a Category 2 storm and when it strengenthed it was too late for them to leave.


ftlaudbob
(Storm Chaser)
Tue Sep 05 2017 03:54 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

She has now started moving WNW,as opposed to due W.

chance
(Verified CFHC User)
Tue Sep 05 2017 04:06 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

that is good news i think

ftlaudbob
(Storm Chaser)
Tue Sep 05 2017 04:24 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Quote:

that is good news i think




No,it just keeps it on the NHC's projected path.

But good news for SOME of the islands.


StormHound
(Weather Guru)
Tue Sep 05 2017 04:28 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

I'm not sure of the initialization of each specific model, but they seem to now be coming together on a trip up the east side of Florida.

TheOtherRick
(Weather Watcher)
Tue Sep 05 2017 04:32 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Quote:

Quote:

that is good news i think




No,it just keeps it on the NHC's projected path.

But good news for SOME of the islands.




1200 HWRF and UKM have it going through the mountains of Cuba longwise, then turning north. Bad news for Cuba but it should take some of the steam out of it.


Marknole
(Weather Watcher)
Tue Sep 05 2017 04:37 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

If the trend continues more north and east...and the apparent WNW motion isn't a wobble...this could be good news. Still, that's a sharp right turn predicted. Must be sound data that the next system will dig and pick her up.

JMII
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Sep 05 2017 04:52 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

The recent models runs have spread out - some show offshore to the east, others run thru Cuba, while some push into the west coast of FL. Difficult situation here, the 5 PM update should be entertaining.

Edit: 5 PM update... not much change - the cone just got wider indicating the lack of confidence 5 days out. TS force winds reaching the Keys/S FL Saturday AM.


ftlaudbob
(Storm Chaser)
Tue Sep 05 2017 04:58 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

5pm update:


Quote:

Fixes from the latest satellite and radar imagery suggest that Irma
is moving a little north of due west or 280/13 kt




I thought so.


Major Sharpe
(Registered User)
Tue Sep 05 2017 04:59 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

No entertainment value from the 5PM update. The NHC track seems to be virtually status quo on the track that eventually enters the Florida Straits and makes contact with the Keys. Versus the other, present models, it seems that the NHC is the one -- at least, for the time being -- at odds. The remaining models still seem to dictate a path that runs up the east coast of Florida. What this means, I have no idea. Is closeness to SE Florida better for that area, as it would seemingly avoid the impact of the eastern part of the storm? I will leave that to the pros- to decide.

Steve C
(Verified CFHC User)
Tue Sep 05 2017 05:17 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

It almost seems like NHC is waiting as long as possible on purpose before committing to where the northward turn will take Irma. In the meantime, they just keep leaving the last forcast day in the Straits. Even if they eventually decide it's an east coast scraper, they will just modify that last estimated position at the Keys to compensate. I could understand their reticence to committing to the turn. Once they do, the press will take it and run.

TheOtherRick
(Weather Watcher)
Tue Sep 05 2017 05:53 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Quote:

It almost seems like NHC is waiting as long as possible on purpose before committing to where the northward turn will take Irma. In the meantime, they just keep leaving the last forcast day in the Straits. Even if they eventually decide it's an east coast scraper, they will just modify that last estimated position at the Keys to compensate. I could understand their reticence to committing to the turn. Once they do, the press will take it and run.




Exactly. And what better place to put the last forecast than directly on top of the Keys, to encourage them to get the heck out, starting now.


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Tue Sep 05 2017 05:57 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

18Z GFS running, a bit further north in general this run (probably too far north based on the init since it avoids the islands, and looking at radar I don't see that happening), this run goes over the southern Bahamas starting Friday over the southern tip of Andros Island on Saturday morning (Cat 5) then starts to turn north over Andros Island. North Bahamas by Sunday.

130nm east of Cape Canaveral by Sunday night.

Landfall near Wilmington, NC late Monday night Cat 5

Again, this shows it clearing the NE Caribbean islands, if that does not happen its too far north from the get go. I suspect this will wind up swinging west again in later runs, unfortunately (and I wish it cleared the islands, for their sake)



doug
(Weather Analyst)
Tue Sep 05 2017 06:08 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

That only illustrates the discrepancies in the evaluation of the ridge between the two models. This is a return of the GFS to its earlier estimates before it seemed to settle further west before the turn. Believe me I don't want the storm in the east GOM. I am terrified of the storm surge and complications that will create. However I am not sold on the GFS solution and see the west coast solution as a distinct probability and am acting acccordingly.

chance
(Verified CFHC User)
Tue Sep 05 2017 06:14 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

This is the lounge and i understand people do not like to predict but Clark if you went pure gut where do you think it goes? I understand just a opinion like many of us..

Londovir
(Weather Guru)
Tue Sep 05 2017 06:16 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

The 18z GFS is almost unfortunate because it looks to be way too much of an outlier compared to previous model runs and other models. This run isn't even really showing an eyewall hit on Florida, or just barely at that. Very much a large departure which I expect we'll see return back to the west when it runs again in the future.

That said, it sure would be a nice track if it verified. Although no path that gets close to any land is "good", this would be "better" than many other, much worse scenarios for Florida.


bahamaweather
(Verified CFHC User)
Tue Sep 05 2017 06:18 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

I've been seeing the eastward drifts in the GFS runs over the course of today.

I'm located at Abaco Island in the North-Western Bahamas and it's a no win situation no matter where this monster ends up- but am becoming slightly more alarmed with each new run that edges east.

It will be interesting to see how much latitude Irma gains tomorrow- I might really have to start to worry.

Thoughts and prayers for the Leewards, the SE Bahamas where evacuations have already started, and whoever else may be in the path of Irma.


Prospero
(Weather Guru)
Tue Sep 05 2017 06:18 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Quote:

Exactly. And what better place to put the last forecast than directly on top of the Keys, to encourage them to get the heck out, starting now.



It's been a while since a serious wind/storm surge event hurricane has been covered Live on the Weather Channel. The "Cry Wolf" situation is a dangerous one, and so many people watch the Weather Channel waiting for a powerful storm and their team tries so hard to be in the most impressive location. We watch every time, and think, "That is nothing. Is that a kid flying a kite in the background?" Even storms near Key West we've watched on Live TV as anticipated to be strong seemed very weak.

But a storm like this could be a deadly nightmare to be anywhere close. My wife graduated High School in Key West in the '70s and is distraught over what could happen with a Cat 5 direct hit. The entire island would be destroyed.

Just because the last several passes by the keys have been mild, that does not mean it would be a safe place to hang out during an Irma.


JMII
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Sep 05 2017 06:36 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Quote:

Very much a large departure which I expect we'll see return back to the west when it runs again in the future.




Agree. Its either a bad model run or a new trend the other models haven't picked up on yet. Is the high becoming weaker? Is it pulling out? Where is the incoming front? Is the cut off low not happening now? This is why I don't pick a favorite model and instead follow the trends on all of them. We watched run after run go S and W. This moved Irma from out to sea (many days ago), to the Bahamas and finally into FL. Now we've got a single data point showing a near miss to the east? No real confidence in that scenario at this time.


OrlandoDan
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Sep 05 2017 06:43 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

It will be interesting what the 00Z Euro shows. Will it shift significantly east too

lunkerhunter
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Sep 05 2017 07:04 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

last few frames of the floater Irma getting even more of a buzz saw shape. 190mph? EDIT recon found 916

Prospero
(Weather Guru)
Tue Sep 05 2017 09:00 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

The 8:36 pm EDT tracks have a big shift East.

http://flhurricane.com/modelanimator.php?storm=11&year=2017&title=11


leecherney
(Registered User)
Tue Sep 05 2017 09:12 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Maybe the High won't be so strong? I won't believe were Irma goes, until it went.

MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Tue Sep 05 2017 09:47 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Wanted to mention the 18z Hurricane focused models.

18Z HWRF has landfall in Big Pine Key sunday midday as a Cat 5, then south of Marco Island on the mainland cat 5 later that afternoon, run ends just east of Naples inland.

18Z HMON landfall cat 5 near Tavernier in the keys, just after midnight Sunday. mainland landfall soon after about 10 miles west of the US1 bridge, then moves over lake Okechobee and the winds up near Orlando late Sunday night where the run ends (Cat 3/4 at the time)

Of note I believe the 18z GFS is too far north/east based on how the system initialized, (Too far north) Irma will likely be a nail biter up until the turn, which could take it from the Gulf coast to out to sea, still. If the trend lasts an entire 24 hours, I would feel better.



Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Tue Sep 05 2017 09:51 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Quote:

The 8:36 pm EDT tracks have a big shift East.

http://flhurricane.com/modelanimator.php?storm=11&year=2017&title=11



I have to say this: I'm not great at model runs and if this was a Cat 1 I wouldn't be so worried...I live inland. My husband is saying we need to decide whether to leave by tomorrow morning. I can honestly say that I don't know. Do we go to GA? I can only imagine the traffic and I don't want to run out of gas because I know the Keys are evacuating and Miami/Dade will probably be next...if not Ft. Myers/Naples. So I-75 to me is a no-go. We don't have any toll roads, so that's a great thing (although they've already suspended tolls). I guess I'm just looking for advice and I'm not getting much from the news. Do I wait for the next run? Will she run out of steam? Sorry, just venting. I have NO idea what to do. Flying is not an option at this point or I would already be in Chicago - but we have a dog that is sick with cancer and I've looked all over the place for shelters that will take pets but there aren't many options. My son goes to Florida Southern College in Lakeland and they are closing down on Thursday...out of country students *may* get a hotel room; out of state students are pretty much on their own. Thank goodness he only lives 10 minutes away from us. I could be jumping the gun here...so if I am, please feel free to tell me. I just don't know what to do. Ty in advance.


Myles
(Weather Hobbyist)
Tue Sep 05 2017 10:04 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Colleen,

I'm in coastal Venice and been worrying a bit too, especially because the stores were already out of plywood this afternoon when I went to get some, but at this point it's looking like late Saturday or early Sunday at the earliest, so I think it's still too early to call. And you're well inland, so unless you're in a mobile home or really old house I would probably stay unless evacuation orders were issued.


MichaelA
(Weather Analyst)
Tue Sep 05 2017 10:04 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

The GFS 12z and 18z results did show a more easrward track. It looked like the 18z HMON and HWRF also shifted ever so slightly eastward. We'll see if that trend continues in subsequent runs or if they shift back toward the west again. It will be interesting to see what they begin to indicate on Thursday and Friday. As has been stated, prepare now for the worst and hope for the best.

IsoFlame
(Weather Hobbyist)
Tue Sep 05 2017 10:38 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Stay calm and re-visit each step in your family hurricane plan.

In nearly 59 years of living in Florida, 40 of which were in multiple locations along the east coast of Florida, I've experienced the fringe on one Cat 4 (75 miles out on the "good" side of Floyd), within 40 miles of four Cat 3's (Donna as a toddler, Frances, Charley, Matthew) and the eye of Cat 2 David. I've been in 6-8 tropical storms (several on a sailboat). Each time I had a safe room or "hurricane hole" to ride out the worst conditions forecast. If Irma comes up the Florida peninsula and weakens to a Cat 3, we're staying in the original concrete block section of our house (built in 1950). If Irma holds as a Cat 5 (or a strong Cat 4) and the forecast has her riding up the east coast of Florida (a possibility), the wife and I will pack up the labs and cat and drive before conditions become perilous) west 75 miles inland to leave and shelter at the farm I grew up on.


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Tue Sep 05 2017 10:42 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

11PM Forecast track follows the Euro/HWRF Track fairly closely (over keys to extreme SW Florida), NHC Graphics haven't updated yet, but Central Florida is now in the cone as well.


chance
(Verified CFHC User)
Tue Sep 05 2017 10:47 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

They just said heck with all the other models we will go with 1 in the euro model. Why??? Why only go with that one. I understand the GFS is a outliner this run but last was east as well. The others are east of this as well. Why?? i do not see the reason they can give by just saying they will go with the euro only that is it.


Waiting on the 00 euro and if that shows east i do not see how they can go with it.


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Tue Sep 05 2017 10:53 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

GFS initialized poorly and too far north for one, it is an outlier with a lot of submodels based on it. They made the right call on that one, especially with the mean GFS ensembles being up the spine, the operational WAS an outlier. I hope the trend east happens also, but that wasn't it. (Edit: Trend east and out to Sea, I don't want the Carolinas seeing Irma either)


Tazmanian93
(Weather Master)
Tue Sep 05 2017 10:55 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Mike, wasn't the Euro 5-7 more accurate than GFS for Harvey?

JMII
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Sep 05 2017 10:57 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Quote:

I can honestly say that I don't know. Do we go to GA?




When to leave? By Thursday PM you'll be in the 3 day cone which (going by current history) is pretty darn accurate. That would be my go / no-go time frame. TS force winds would enter your area around Sat PM. What is downside to leaving early rather then later? Not much, you burn some gas, help the local economy with some nights in a hotel and get familiar with the menu at Cracker Barrel. Drive a few hundred miles a day, find a hotel, stop, fire up the WiFI and collect more information then plan your next move. If things look better stay put, if things get worse - keep driving. My worry would be gas. Down south here the lines are already getting pretty crazy.

Quote:

11PM Forecast track follows the Euro/HWRF Track fairly closely (over keys to extreme SW Florida)




So the NHC is going with more western solution (for now)... interesting. This was my call this AM and I haven't seen enough information to change it.


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Wed Sep 06 2017 12:00 AM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

0z GFS, corrected south this run,but still a tad too north, either way goes over Turks and Caicos Cat 4/5 on Friday, goes just south of Andros Island in the Bahamas Saturday night, (Southern tip catches eyewall), starts to turn north just west of the Island. eastern eyewall over Andros. Over Bimini as a cat 5 Sunday Morning. West eyewall is over miami. Just under 30 miles east of WPB on midday Sunday.

Cat 5 landfall, Charleston, SC Midday Monday.

Shift back west, but still offshore Florida. init was a bit too far north, it'll be a close call either way, I'd bet on another west shift later. It shifted 65 miles closer to Florida this run.

For an even bigger shift, CMC is shifting from a Panhandle landfall to an close call with the east coast and out to sea. (overkill to the east from overkill to the west)

0z ukmet has landfall at west palm beach and rides the east coast of Florida inland up to Jacksonville. Shift west, and less interaction with Cuba.


bahamaweather
(Verified CFHC User)
Wed Sep 06 2017 12:05 AM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Another 'eastern' run for the GFS.... I'll wait until morning to see the Euro and the possibility of a trend. GFS keeps things dicey in the Bahamas for sure...

Lamar-Plant City
(Storm Tracker)
Wed Sep 06 2017 12:10 AM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Quote:

0z GFS, corrected south this run,but still a tad too north, either way goes over Turks and Caicos Cat 4/5 on Friday, goes just south of Andros Island in the Bahamas Saturday night, (Southern tip catches eyewall), starts to turn north just west of the Island. eastern eyewall over Andros. Over Bimini as a cat 5 Sunday Morning. West eyewall is over miami. 30 miles east of WPB on midday Sunday.

Shift back west, but still offshore Florida. init was a bit too far north, it'll be a close call either way, I'd bet on another west shift later. It shifted 65 miles closer to Florida this run.





Hasn't GFS been east for most of the life of Irma. Euro has had this westerly track pegged for several days...that's gotta be why NHC is sticking close to that ensemble....


Londovir
(Weather Guru)
Wed Sep 06 2017 12:19 AM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Curious about how/where you can see the init. Would the 0Z GFS run init be correlated to 7pm EDT position of the storm, or am I off on how that works? If so, I'm comparing the rough center of the GFS position at +0 with the radar images from Barbados at 7:01pm looks to be in roughly the same spot, plus or minus a tiny bit.

If the GFS persists in making it an east coast event, and the Euro continues with the west coast event, it's going to be a nightmare for NHC in deciding how to advise on the potential track.


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Wed Sep 06 2017 12:25 AM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Only by comparing short term models vs actual data. I suspect Euro may shift slightly east, and gfs will shift slightly more west again.

Steve C
(Verified CFHC User)
Wed Sep 06 2017 12:57 AM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Quote:

and shelter at the farm I grew up on.




Yup. Similar in Houston. Short of a direct hit Cat 4-5, we are in no flood trouble and stick it out.. But with a close and big storm forecast, we bail early. We grab the computers, backup drives, and keepsakes. We shoot a quick video of the house contents. And we head to our daughter's in Austin. On the way, we call the insurance agent and remind him where the house is... heh. We stayed for Harvey; no wind and no surge. We left for Ike and Rita (though Rita eventually missed us, and we basically u-turned in austin after a quick nap.)


ObsFromNWFL
(Registered User)
Wed Sep 06 2017 02:03 AM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

HMON & HWRF have shifted east. Disney World saved. Mar-a-lago doomed.

ObsFromNWFL
(Registered User)
Wed Sep 06 2017 02:30 AM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

00Z ECMWF has shifted significantly east.

Marknole
(Weather Watcher)
Wed Sep 06 2017 05:24 AM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

5:00 AM discussion: "The bulk of the guidance now calls for Irma to turn northward between 78W-80W, moving near or over the
Florida east coast or the northwestern Bahamas. The officialforecast has also been shifted eastward, but out of respect for the
previous forecast and the possibility the guidance may shift back to the west, it lies to the left of the bulk of the guidance."

Not surprising given such a dramatic shift, however the guidance is very compelling. Would love to see this trend continue and let Irma ride up the Gulf Stream!


Jumaduke
(Verified CFHC User)
Wed Sep 06 2017 06:15 AM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

We are in the Gainesville area and are watching the model plots quite closely. Husband and I are in a debate as to which storm scenario is worse for the state. He argues that the NOAA model, making a direct hit on Lake Okechobee as she barrels up the center of the peninsula, would be worse because she'll directly affect more people and property. However, I contend that landfall would significantly weaken the eye faster; rather, the path projected by virtually every other model (showing it scraping up the coast and keeping the eye over open water) would be more damaging because nothing would dampen her power. I guess it all depends on when Irma decides to take the snowbird route and head North. Then again, I keep musing on the path of Floyd in 1999, which again scraped the coast of Florida but didn't have an entirely devastating impact because the eye was so far East of the coast. Irma looks to be on a trajectory which puts her eye closer to the beaches. In any case, I'm guessing that we won't be gassing up the truck and traveling TO St. Augustine to witness the storm (as we crazily did in '99).

ObsFromNWFL
(Registered User)
Wed Sep 06 2017 06:19 AM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

The 06Z GFS run just posted. Unchanged from previous run.

MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Wed Sep 06 2017 06:50 AM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

0z Euro shifted east, this time. The storm is aover the Turks and Caicos late tomorrow night in the cat 3/4 range, crosses the very southern tip of Andros island in the Bahamas Sautrday midday. Then western eyewall gets very close to West Palm Beach late Sunday night, <20 miles. Then landfall between Savannah, GA and Charleston, SC. Early Ttuesday morning,

6z GFS is very similar, but with landfall slightly south of the Euro and closest point to West Palm is 30-40 miles. The run is mostly identical to the 0z run until it gets east of Jacksonville, where it turns back west faster.

0z HWRF has also moved east of Florida 6Z HWRF Still running, a bit west of the 0z run,

0z HMon has landfall near Key Largo early Sunday as a cat 5, then up the state, and out by Daytona Beach Early Monday. 6Z HMON Takes it to north of Savannah, closest approach to WPB is about 60 miles.

this is a solid trend east with both the major models slightly east of Florirda, GFS Ensembles are still nearly a 50/50 split on a Florida landfall (mean winds up slightly east this time though) and the Euro ensembles still take it up the spine of Florida.

Hopefully this trend continues today with mulit-model agreement, but it is still too early to call this a sure bet. It's not good news for the Carolinas if this occurs, though. A few miles in either direction will make a lot of difference, look for bias corrects (GFS has been too far north consistently in the short range) Bottom line, wait to see if this holds or not, and take the word of the National Hurricane Center over any other source.


JMII
(Storm Tracker)
Wed Sep 06 2017 07:52 AM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Quote:

this is a solid trend east with both the major models slightly east of Florirda. Hopefully this trend continues today with mulit-model agreement, but it is still too early to call this a sure bet.




This is best news we've had in awhile. Hopefully the trend continues because the current track is too horrendous to even consider, it's the stuff nightmares are made of!


WestFLJess
(Registered User)
Wed Sep 06 2017 07:53 AM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Mike C (or others) Will NHC make their track shift a little East sometime soon? Or do you think they will stay where they are at going up the center of the state to keep people ready?

We are in Tampa Bay. I have many employees freaking out but we are in healthcare so we do not close unless there are evacuation orders.


ftlaudbob
(Storm Chaser)
Wed Sep 06 2017 08:02 AM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Thursday is the day I think we will know.Very accurate 3 days out.

MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Wed Sep 06 2017 08:24 AM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Quote:

Mike C (or others) Will NHC make their track shift a little East sometime soon? Or do you think they will stay where they are at going up the center of the state to keep people ready?

We are in Tampa Bay. I have many employees freaking out but we are in healthcare so we do not close unless there are evacuation orders.




Probably but they will do so incrementally, they don't like to shift the track left and right back and forth, if the models stay consistant it'll move further right, if they shift back west it'll hold as is. For what it's worth (not too much for Tropics) the Navgem (Navy model) shifted back west this morning over Florida. Really that entire cone should be looked at, not just the center line. Tomorrow they will have a better idea, even better still on Friday, but until the turn happens itself it'll likely be very close.


vineyardsaker
(Weather Guru)
Wed Sep 06 2017 08:44 AM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Please help me make sense of the models this morning. The NHC "official" track has Irma making landfall in southern FL and the go up over the peninsula. The South Florida Water Management District models all indicate that Irma might not even make landfall and that she would move parallel to the East coast leaving FL 50-100 miles on her left side. Why this discrepancy and which model looks more trustworthy to you?
Also, I am just south of Daytona Beach. What is the biggest threat for me? Winds, flooding or storm surge?
Do you have any idea as to how bad this one would be for my area? I am struggling hard with the decision to evacuate or not.
Thank you!


ftlaudbob
(Storm Chaser)
Wed Sep 06 2017 08:50 AM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Quote:

Please help me make sense of the models this morning. The NHC "official" track has Irma making landfall in southern FL and the go up over the peninsula. The South Florida Water Management District models all indicate that Irma might not even make landfall and that she would move parallel to the East coast leaving FL 50-100 miles on her left side. Why this discrepancy and which model looks more trustworthy to you?
Also, I am just south of Daytona Beach. What is the biggest threat for me? Winds, flooding or storm surge?
Do you have any idea as to how bad this one would be for my area? I am struggling hard with the decision to evacuate or not.
Thank you!




I think MikeC explained it best in his last post.


leetdan
(Weather Guru)
Wed Sep 06 2017 08:53 AM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Quote:

Please help me make sense of the models this morning. The NHC "official" track has Irma making landfall in southern FL and the go up over the peninsula. The South Florida Water Management District models all indicate that Irma might not even make landfall and that she would move parallel to the East coast leaving FL 50-100 miles on her left side. Why this discrepancy and which model looks more trustworthy to you?
Also, I am just south of Daytona Beach. What is the biggest threat for me? Winds, flooding or storm surge?
Do you have any idea as to how bad this one would be for my area? I am struggling hard with the decision to evacuate or not.
Thank you!




Ignore the line. Focus on the cone. Make your plans based on evacuation zones, how secure you can make your home, and how prepared you are to stay there for potentially days without utilities.


vineyardsaker
(Weather Guru)
Wed Sep 06 2017 09:20 AM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Thanks,

Any opinions on my questions:

Quote:

What is the biggest threat for me? Winds, flooding or storm surge?
Do you have any idea as to how bad this one would be for my area? I am struggling hard with the decision to evacuate or not




MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Wed Sep 06 2017 09:28 AM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Quote:

Thanks,

Any opinions on my questions:

Quote:

What is the biggest threat for me? Winds, flooding or storm surge?
Do you have any idea as to how bad this one would be for my area? I am struggling hard with the decision to evacuate or not







Depending on exact location, probably the surge (depends on approach and exactly where you live and exactly what direction and strength irma is approaching from and if the wind/eye is close enough to drive the field up... Matthew got close but not enough to bring the surge in noticeably to New Smyrna like it did to Flagler Beach north) Of the 3 big hurricanes to be close to central Florida in 2004 Jeanne was the one that did the most surge damage to New Smyrna, but that was with a landfall way south.

When Florida gets under a watch/warning they'll put up surge maps which will help.


vineyardsaker
(Weather Guru)
Wed Sep 06 2017 09:41 AM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

thank you very much Mike!

raine1212
(Registered User)
Wed Sep 06 2017 09:53 AM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

I am trying to so hard to figure out the threat for us here in the 30809 zip code, I know the models change but we keep staying in it. I flood with a bad thunder storm, not really sure how to prepare for this. If someone could please help guide me, I would appreciate it at my old age. Thanks

JMII
(Storm Tracker)
Wed Sep 06 2017 10:54 AM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Based on San Juan radar Irma looked to be slightly south of 8AM forecast position, so there was a tiny correction at 11AM.
The British Virgin Islands look to take a direct hit.

Edit: also track shifted east again to mirror the models.


Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Wed Sep 06 2017 11:05 AM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Yes, I'm watching the TWC. They said it took a little wobble to the south, which is not good for PR or the VI or the BVI.

scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Wed Sep 06 2017 11:19 AM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Good chance 90% this won't make it west of 82dgW and 60% chance this won't even make landfall in Florida.. This all depends on the speed of movement to the WNW over the next 3 days...Saturday before the turn, it slows down to 5-8mph around 78-79W.. but will it be south of 24N? that's the question right now. The ridge currently will have to build westward by about 80-100miles IMO for this to make landfall in the keys... otherwise right now.. it's looking like Nassua-Grand Bahama(Freeport) and north towards S Carolina by early next week. GFS and Euro coming out in the next 1-3 hours

MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Wed Sep 06 2017 11:48 AM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

12Z GFS running, Init seems good, reflects BVI issues.

Over Turks and Caicos late Thursday night, cat 4. avoids direct impact with the central Bahamas this time, stays to the south of the rest of the Bahamas (They still get north eyewall though) 40nm southwest of the earlier run at 60 hours. Faster forward motion, also. Jumps noticeably west of earlier run at 66 hours. 50nm ssw of earlier run at 78 hours.

Landfall or very near miss Ft. Lauderdale, Cat 5 midday Sunday, before that Metro Miami in eyewall. Moves north near/over West Palm and back into the Atlantic by late Sunday, then rides just offshore up the coast toward Savannah, GA. landfall, Savannah Monday afternoon, cat 4.



Steve C
(Verified CFHC User)
Wed Sep 06 2017 12:08 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Not sure where to put this, but Eric Berger at Ars Technica just published a nice article about the various hurricane models often seen in spaghetti plots. He gives a good one sentence summary of each of the models.
Please, please stop sharing spaghetti plots of hurricane models. All forecast models are not created equal.


StormHound
(Weather Guru)
Wed Sep 06 2017 12:23 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Quote:

Not sure where to put this, but Eric Berger at Ars Technica just published a nice article about the various hurricane models often seen in spaghetti plots. He gives a good one sentence summary of each of the models.
Please, please stop sharing spaghetti plots of hurricane models. All forecast models are not created equal.




I have to disagree. The spaghetti plots are fine if one knows how to use them. There isn't any such thing as too much information. It's great for a quick view of what all the models are doing, especially watching the trends over time. It would be ridiculous to base an exact forecast on them. It is also ridiculous to say that information should not be shared. Educate people, don't suppress information.


Steve C
(Verified CFHC User)
Wed Sep 06 2017 12:25 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Quote:

The spaghetti plots are fine if one knows how to use them.




That is the point of the article. Know how to use them. It's a good read.


Lamar-Plant City
(Storm Tracker)
Wed Sep 06 2017 12:28 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Quote:

Not sure where to put this, but Eric Berger at Ars Technica just published a nice article about the various hurricane models often seen in spaghetti plots. He gives a good one sentence summary of each of the models.
Please, please stop sharing spaghetti plots of hurricane models. All forecast models are not created equal.




Good advice for the general public and a nice summary of the models...I sometimes forget which is which. But around her if you hang long enough it will become apparent which ones to watch and which to ignore. I have known to disregard the Clip and most BAM (now TAB) models for a long time as well as the XTRP. His complaint about being 12 hours old JUST refers to those that were posted by silver. Here (and at Skeetobite) we get them much sooner than 12 hours, but you also have to watch when it was run. Knowledge and experience will help folks wade through the spaghetti!


flnative
(Registered User)
Wed Sep 06 2017 12:35 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

It's been so long since I was last on here that I had to re-register...(which is a good thing!) Thank you to the creators, moderators & meteorologists for what you all do here.

Should that south(ish) wobble a little earlier result in a close call with the northern coast of PR could that affect a change to the 5pm track update and how will that come into play with the timing of the anticipated poleward movement?


Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Wed Sep 06 2017 12:50 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

I've been watching the radar on our local news station and it looks like that was only a temporary wobble...looks like it's going to miss PR with a direct hit by a hair....at least, I hope so.

JMII
(Storm Tracker)
Wed Sep 06 2017 12:51 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IVISTTHO2#history

This weather station is (I would guess) approximately 40 miles from the eye and getting 105 MPH gusts. Pressure still failing but not as rapidly as before.


ObsFromNWFL
(Registered User)
Wed Sep 06 2017 12:57 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

No change in 12Z GFS run. That is 3 consistent runs. Official NHC track now matches this track.

bahamaweather
(Verified CFHC User)
Wed Sep 06 2017 12:58 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

It looks like that wobble to the South and West was very short lived. Should miss Puerto Rico to the North and East. AVN at15:45 UTC looks like it is already slightly north of PR's latitude.

GFS and CMC 12z are slightly west again though- not by much. Still riding the east cost of Florida.


DougBaker
(Verified CFHC User)
Wed Sep 06 2017 01:01 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

I see that Irma may become a cat 4 as it nears Fl, why would winds descrease as the storm hits the warmer gulf stream? and is there a maximum wind speed of a hurricane? given the right conditions, what is the max?

TheOtherRick
(Weather Watcher)
Wed Sep 06 2017 01:02 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Using the NHC Google plot, and weather.com's interactive radar map, both of which have extreme apparently accurate closeups...Irma will hit the Virgin Islands shortly, 10 miles north of the projected path. it is supposed to pass south of SpanishTown Island, and it hits it dead center.

Hard to say if they are that precise But if so, the good news is the models that have it miss Florida to the East, are further to the north.


ObsFromNWFL
(Registered User)
Wed Sep 06 2017 01:03 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

For those of you thinking Irma missing PR look at the PR radar. Link at bottom of page. https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=jua&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no

JMII
(Storm Tracker)
Wed Sep 06 2017 01:25 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Weather station linked above appears to have broken after recording a 113 MPH gust, pressures are dropping like crazy now.

Edit: Pressure finally bottomed out at 28.22" @ 2:05 PM... now it is starting to climb back up as Irma moves away from St Thomas Virgin Islands.


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Wed Sep 06 2017 02:22 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Key Largo hit by Euro on the 12z, Sunday morning at Cat 4, out Monday morning near Port St. Lucie as cat 3. Second landfall near Savannah at 132 hours.

most inland part of new Euro:



Goes over basically all of the S. Florida metro areas.


ObsFromNWFL
(Registered User)
Wed Sep 06 2017 02:25 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

ECMWF has now posted . Same as GFS, HWRF, HMON, NHC re Florida.

JMII
(Storm Tracker)
Wed Sep 06 2017 03:11 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Quote:

Key Largo hit by Euro on the 12z, Sunday morning at Cat 4, out Monday morning near Port St. Lucie as cat 3. Second landfall near Savannah at 132 hours. Goes over basically all of the S. Florida metro areas.




Population of Dade, Broward and West Palm = 6.7 million people

Per Wikipedia: Because the population of South Florida is largely confined to a strip of land between the Atlantic Ocean and the Everglades, the Miami urbanized area (that is, the area of contiguous urban development) is about 110 miles (180 km) long (north to south), but never more than 20 miles (32 km) wide, and in some areas only 5 miles (8.0 km) wide (east to west). The Miami metropolitan statistical area is longer than any other urbanized area in the United States except for the New York metropolitan area.


Reaper
(Weather Watcher)
Wed Sep 06 2017 03:23 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

I'm not sure if it's been mentioned already, but the one thing that I don't really understand is that regardless of the trajectory that each model run has produced in regards to possible paths, ALL of the models have projected continued increase in strength all the way and up to either landfall or the the eventual turn poleward, yet the NHC has consistently forecasted the weakening of the system toward the end of the runs.

bahamaweather
(Verified CFHC User)
Wed Sep 06 2017 03:30 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Quote:

I'm not sure if it's been mentioned already, but the one thing that I don't really understand is that regardless of the trajectory that each model run has produced in regards to possible paths, ALL of the models have projected continued increase in strength all the way and up to either landfall or the the eventual turn poleward, yet the NHC has consistently forecasted the weakening of the system toward the end of the runs.




I've noticed this as well- none of the model runs seem to indicate much in the way of weakening- regardless of the western or eastern bias.


ftlaudbob
(Storm Chaser)
Wed Sep 06 2017 03:55 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Correct me if I;m wrong,But to be it looks like all the major models are now agreeing on a Miami/Ft Lauderdale landfall.And we are not that far out any longer so....

Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Wed Sep 06 2017 04:04 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Are the models still trending east?

ftlaudbob
(Storm Chaser)
Wed Sep 06 2017 04:06 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Quote:

Are the models still trending east?




Doesn't appear so,looks to me like they have decided on Miami/ Fort Lauderdale.


StormHound
(Weather Guru)
Wed Sep 06 2017 05:03 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Quote:

I'm not sure if it's been mentioned already, but the one thing that I don't really understand is that regardless of the trajectory that each model run has produced in regards to possible paths, ALL of the models have projected continued increase in strength all the way and up to either landfall or the the eventual turn poleward, yet the NHC has consistently forecasted the weakening of the system toward the end of the runs.




Most of these models are pretty terrible at forecasting strength with any precision. There is one model which has been much more accurate at strength forecast. I forget which model that is, but the NHC has all the models at its disposal and tries to use the relative merits of each model to come up with the forecast. And remember, none of these going to turn out to be totally accurate.


MichaelA
(Weather Analyst)
Wed Sep 06 2017 05:21 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

The 12z runs seem to be trending slightly back toward the west. Once we get to the 72 - 48 hour time frame (tomorrow PM for south Florida and Friday AM/PM for central Florida), we'll have a good idea of track reliability. Stay prepared.

OrlandoDan
(Storm Tracker)
Wed Sep 06 2017 05:45 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

The 18z run of the GFS will be interesting. Will we see a slight adjustment East? Am I seeing that Irma is currently running just a tad north of forecast?

MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Wed Sep 06 2017 05:52 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

18Z GFS is slightly NE of the 12Z Run this one goes over the Turks and Caicos and Crooked Island in the Bahamas, as well as just south of Andros (so far) goes over Bimini Island in the extreme Western Bahamas Sunday morning, east of Miami. Closest approach to west palm beach is 25 miles. Cat 5 landfall just north of Savannah, Monday evening.




leetdan
(Weather Guru)
Wed Sep 06 2017 06:09 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

18Z GFS shoots the gap between West End and West Palm, as MikeC says above. It also shows deepening to 890 mb at hour 84, which would be #3 all-time if it were to pan out.

enterlaughing
(Registered User)
Wed Sep 06 2017 06:14 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

I have family in Winter Haven who are watching the threads move east and think they will be fine. Too many people are ignoring the cone! What can I tell them?

kapSt.Cloud
(Verified CFHC User)
Wed Sep 06 2017 06:37 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

The cone is there for a reason. The reason being Irma can fluctuate east or west. Apparently they are not listening to the news as it is reported over and over "PAY ATTENTION TO THE CONE". I for one do not suffer fools gladly! Also, as I replied to someone else tropical storms and hurricanes spawn tornadoes.

StormHound
(Weather Guru)
Wed Sep 06 2017 07:16 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Quote:

I have family in Winter Haven who are watching the threads move east and think they will be fine. Too many people are ignoring the cone! What can I tell them?




Hurricane Andrew. Many people went to bed that night thinking the storm was not going to hit them, and not be as strong as it turned out to be. We saw how that turned out. If you are in the cone, you need to be prepared. It doesn't hurt to prepare and not need it. If you choose not to be prepared, there will be nothing you can do.


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Wed Sep 06 2017 07:31 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

18Z HMON Has a Miami cat 5 landfall Sunday morning, and exits Florida near Melbourne Sunday afternoon, clips Cape Canaveral cat 4 and stays just east of the Florida coastline another landfall near Brunswick, GA / Saint Simons island Cat 3/4 Monday morning

18Z HWRF Running also, moves Irma a bit quicker but same path up to Saturday afternoon, shifts very slightly east.

18Z NAVGEM Landfall near Marathon Sunday morning,then straight up the spine of Florida, slightly west of the earlier run.



lunkerhunter
(Storm Tracker)
Wed Sep 06 2017 07:58 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Charley 2004 in 8 hours increased from 115 to 145 and veered right making landfall 80 miles to the south of where the line said it would. Hurricanes can change faster than they could react. you don't want to be stuck on a road. several semi's were overturned on 95 in Punta Gorda

JMII
(Storm Tracker)
Wed Sep 06 2017 08:06 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

That projected turn to the N is pretty dramatic, I don't think I can ever remember a track forecast like that. Most storms can't stop and change direction on a dime... I would expect a slow gradual turn. For this to verify Irma has to slow down to a crawl, then start moving again at a 90 degree angle. Hopefully we have full radar coverage of this out of Key West because its going to be a Charley like situation where the track could change rapidly within a short time frame - less then the normal 3 hour window of NHC updates.

A little more east of a track will be a BIG difference to S FL if she can just keep her core/eye wall off the coast by about 40-60 miles. Of course that puts our friends in the Bahamas in a much worst situation.

My first floor panels are up. 2nd floor is tomorrow. Along with two other homes I'm assisting. The wife mentioned how familar this felt... we did it almost a year ago with Mathew. It seems we are getting faster at putting up the panels thanks to practice


M.A.
(Weather Hobbyist)
Wed Sep 06 2017 08:17 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=JUA&loop=yes

Long range radar from San Juan. Looks like a double eyewall? I cant remember ever seeing this. Of course, I have never seen 185mph+ hurricane on radar either. It looks perfect!


Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Wed Sep 06 2017 08:34 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Quote:

https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=JUA&loop=yes

Long range radar from San Juan. Looks like a double eyewall? I cant remember ever seeing this. Of course, I have never seen 185mph+ hurricane on radar either. It looks perfect!


Bryan Norcross was talking about this on TWC about a 1/2 hour ago. He also mentioned that it looks like the eyewall looks like it's getting a bit larger.

M.A.
(Weather Hobbyist)
Wed Sep 06 2017 08:42 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Anyone know what the record is for hours or days over 180mph? I'm in the direct line for this storm and cannot get over how beautiful it is. On a different note, when was the last time we had 3 hurricanes active in the Atlantic?

kapSt.Cloud
(Verified CFHC User)
Wed Sep 06 2017 09:13 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

I agree with you. I have never seen a hurricane do such a right angle turn as is projected for Irma. It's analogous to a speeding car (Irma is moving fast at 16 mph) coming to a quick stop at a stop sign and doing a hard right turn! I've been watching these things since Donna in 1960.

Bev
(Weather Guru)
Wed Sep 06 2017 09:16 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Quote:

18Z HMON Has a Miami cat 5 landfall Sunday morning, and exits Florida near Melbourne Sunday afternoon, clips Cape Canaveral cat 4 and stays just east of the Florida coastline another landfall near Brunswick, GA / Saint Simons island Cat 3/4 Monday morning

18Z HWRF Running also, moves Irma a bit quicker but same path up to Saturday afternoon, shifts very slightly east.

18Z NAVGEM Landfall near Marathon Sunday morning,then straight up the spine of Florida, slightly west of the earlier run.






Which of these models do you generally have the most confidence in?


Lamar-Plant City
(Storm Tracker)
Wed Sep 06 2017 09:24 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Quote:

https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=JUA&loop=yes

Long range radar from San Juan. Looks like a double eyewall? I cant remember ever seeing this. Of course, I have never seen 185mph+ hurricane on radar either. It looks perfect!




Double eyewall means it is in an eyewall replacement cycle. the original eye will shrink as an out eye forms that then moves inward and takes over. Usually they lose a little strength during the process.....but probably not this one!


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Wed Sep 06 2017 09:24 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Quote:

Quote:

18Z HMON Has a Miami cat 5 landfall Sunday morning, and exits Florida near Melbourne Sunday afternoon, clips Cape Canaveral cat 4 and stays just east of the Florida coastline another landfall near Brunswick, GA / Saint Simons island Cat 3/4 Monday morning

18Z HWRF Running also, moves Irma a bit quicker but same path up to Saturday afternoon, shifts very slightly east.

18Z NAVGEM Landfall near Marathon Sunday morning,then straight up the spine of Florida, slightly west of the earlier run.






Which of these models do you generally have the most confidence in?




Honestly, none of them, but it helps to see what the Hurricane center may be thinking. Euro and GFS tend to be the best, but some of the others are good in other circumstances. UKmet, for example sniffed out Matthew's final track a good bit earlier than some others, but didn't do so well with Harvey. I'd go with the official forecast.


cieldumort
(Moderator)
Wed Sep 06 2017 09:32 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Quote:

https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=JUA&loop=yes

Long range radar from San Juan. Looks like a double eyewall? I cant remember ever seeing this. Of course, I have never seen 185mph+ hurricane on radar either. It looks perfect!




Double eyewalls are usually a sign of an Eyewall Replacement Cycle underway (or at least an attempt). Typically during an ERC, top winds speeds come down, but the radius of powerful winds expands. With a double eyewall there will tend to also be two distinct wind maxima. (An image of this as it looks via recon is currently up on the
Main Page Thread ).

Often once completed, top wind speeds will consolidate and increase again.

This is a fairly common phenomenon, not at all reserved for only the strongest systems, but is always a site to behold.


mikethewreck
(Weather Hobbyist)
Wed Sep 06 2017 10:03 PM
Attachment
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Didn't hurricane Cleo and Wilma make pretty sharp turns at some point in their lives?

And Cleo's sharp right turn was to go north through Miami (although it approached from south of Cuba, track from WU attached).

Cleo is actually my earliest memory. I was 2 1/2 years old and living in Miami.


Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Wed Sep 06 2017 10:14 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

We can always hope! I don't remember either of those storms, though. I guess it all depends on atmosphere at this point.

kapSt.Cloud
(Verified CFHC User)
Wed Sep 06 2017 10:32 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

In reply to MiketheWreck:

Cleo curved to go north...not a sharp right

https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/1964/Major-Hurricane-Cleo

You do have a point with Wilma, but she was an oddity. Slow travel speed in a short run before turning:

https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2005/Major-Hurricane-Wilma


bahamaweather
(Verified CFHC User)
Wed Sep 06 2017 10:49 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

I would look for trends in actual track over time. For example, is the storm consistently north or east of the forecast points? Hurricanes move in wobbles, not fixed lines.

JMII
(Storm Tracker)
Wed Sep 06 2017 11:09 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Quote:

You do have a point with Wilma, but she was an oddity. Slow travel speed in a short run before turning




Yep, then Wilma got wacked by a very strong cold front. I've never experienced such a 12 hour weather difference in FL like that. She pretty much hit a wall, stalled, bounced off, then rocketed off to the NE. She had that pin hole eye and crazy low pressure, thus not a "typical" cane at all. Guess maybe she is a good comparison to Irma since this is by no means a typical storm either. Irma is already rewriting the record books.

11PM update is out, small adjustment to the east. The models are really well aligned even at the 4 day point. Normally the spread is much wider, confidence is increasing as the clock ticks down.


AgentB
(Weather Guru)
Wed Sep 06 2017 11:15 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Sounds like what some of us were seeing on the P.R. radar. From the 11 p.m. discussion:

Quote:

Earlier radar observations from the San Juan WSR-88D showed a concentric eyewall, and observations from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft showed a secondary wind maximum over the northwest quadrant. These phenomena may be associated with some weakening, but since the central pressure hasn't risen much the intensity is held at 160 kt at this time. Moreover, the concentric eyewall has become less apparent in recent radar imagery. Considerable lightning activity has been noted in the eyewall of Irma, which
research has shown to sometimes be a harbinger of weakening. Notwithstanding, low vertical wind shear and warm waters along the forecast track of Irma should allow it to remain a very powerful hurricane during the next several days.




Hopefully, it's the start of a trend.


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Wed Sep 06 2017 11:35 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

0z gfs run starts now:

Initialization seems good position wise, pressure wise it's much too high, which is odd and a fair reason to discount some of it, It, stays on track for the first 24 hours (from last run) over Turks and Caicos Late tomorrow (Very slightly east of 18z run) then 35nm sse of 18z position at 36 hours.

Gets further west this run but bends up to match the 18z position, 30nm east of West Palm Sunday Midday, very little shift. 96 hours it's further east than the 18z run. Ridges appears to erode unrealistically quickly this run, between this and the bad pressure init I think it may be a defective run.

Cat 5 landfall Tuesday morning just south of Myrtle Beach, SC. Way east late in the run from prior runs. This may be a bad run in general because of the problems note. It also takes Jose over Barbuda.

0z UKmet with a big west shift, brief Cuba landfall,, then landfall Big Pine Key Saturday night Cat 4/5, second US landfall south of Everglades City Cat 4/5. Exits the state near New Smyrna Beach, then a third US landfall between Svannah and Charleston Cat 2/3

Doesn't really mean much in the grand scheme, but the UKMET did the best with Matthew last year this far out (for track).



scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Thu Sep 07 2017 12:44 AM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

I doubt the UkMet will verify but GFS/UkMet look decent out to 60hrs... I think this all depends on speed of motion on Irma over the next 3 days as it goes W to WNW... does it make it to 80W by Saturday night... or does it only get to 78-79W and turn then... a faster and more west system will make it to Florida.. anything under 16mph will not make it to 80W

scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Thu Sep 07 2017 12:48 AM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Hmm 0z run of the Ukmet isn't on our page yet.. I'll have to look into that


Update.... ok it finally updated.. yeah into Cuba...but will Euro follow and GFS on the next 2 runs? or will Ukmet join the GFS in it's 12z run... guess we have to still watch short term movement and models into tomorrow night.


Doombot!
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 07 2017 02:07 AM
Bad 00z initialization?

Mike,

I know you already hit on it, but it looks like bad pressure in several models. 968 on GFS, CMC, Navgem. The 00z run usually "balances out" the 12z run, but now everything looking split because of bad data.

Hopefully things can be reran or the 6z has better data because now isn't the time to have the models choke.


cieldumort
(Moderator)
Thu Sep 07 2017 04:28 AM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Lounge Reminder ...

It's foolish to consider the spaghetti and make decisions - any decisions - Even if one knows.. like really, really knows, what they are looking at. Forecast errors beyond 48/72 hours can be large. When in the Lounge, extreme caution is always advised.

About the spaghetti.. There is no *one* model that forecasters consider solid gold. Some handle certain situations better than most. And then some that perform poorly in one scenario, outshine in yet other situations. This is why human forecasters rely (still, for now) on some good ol' human brain power, along with weighted averaging super consensus models (models based on models, weighted for accuracy and relevance).

Within models, there are individual members ('ensembles'), and also the 'operational' version of that model. The operational is not the same as the model mean, incidentally. There is also that, and it's called, aptly, the "Mean."

The operational is the standard within that model family, but not necessarily always and every time the best version of that model. So, forecasters also consider the entire sphere of a model's ensembles, and, because this is the Lounge, and we are talking spaghetti, I'm sharing some of the top global models' ensemble runs from 07 0z. to give some idea of how much uncertainty there remains after 72 hours. There really is a lot. Therefore, use this intel to help you not decide whether or not model x or model y gives you warm n fuzzies about not having to worry, but rather an illustration as to why, beyond 72, heck, even 48 hours, one should pay way, way, way less attention to the 'center line,' and far more to the outermost bounds of the NHC Cone of Uncertainty.

What is the Cone of Uncertainty? It is that apparition that surrounds the 'center line' that people often misinterpret to be a region of any impacts, when in reality, it designates the range in which .. get this .. if you don't already know... maybe you'll want to even sit down first ... the Cone of Uncertainty actually 'represents the probable track of the center of a tropical cyclone, and is formed by enclosing the area swept out by a set of circles (not shown) along the forecast track (at 12, 24, 36 hours, etc). The size of each circle is set so that two-thirds of historical official forecast errors over a 5-year sample fall within the circle. The circle radii defining the cones.'

Did you catch that? In other words, its highly likely that the actual track is not going to be going right down the center line, but rather to the right or left of it (and possibly well to the right or left in some storms - possibly how far left or right? Look at the current NHC Cone).

On to some images of the most recent 07 0z Ensembles on Irma. Again, please use with extreme caution. This is not a forecast. This is a series of model outputs that describe a range of possibilities identified by a parent model.







MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Thu Sep 07 2017 04:49 AM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

0Z Euro. trend very very slightly west
Late tonight, over or very near the Turks and Caicos
Landfall, Maimi proper Sunday Morning. Cat 4/5, exits coast near Fort Pierce late Sunday afternoon
Clips Cape Canaveral Sunday Night Cat 3
Another landfall in GA Midway Between Brunswick and Fernandina Beach, FL cat 3 late Monday morning. Stays Hurricane into Georgia until just south of Athens (Milledgeville, GA) Early Tuesday morning.

Note: Euro Run ends with Jose as a major In the SW Bahamas (over andros) approaching Florida, after doing a Jeanne style loop Sep 17th.

HMON mimics the Euro run, Landfall near Mimi Sunday morning, Cat 5, exit near Ft. Pierce hugs coast, Landfall Brunswick, GA Cat 4
HWRF closer to GFS, slight shift east, although not as dramatic as the 0z GFS Cat 3 landfall just north of Charleston, SC.

6Z GFS shifts west 30 miles or so closer to Florida this run, still with the bad pressure init, It goes over Turks and Caicos and crooked Island, and the south tip of Andros Island early saturday morning also. landfall near Charleston, SC late Monday afternoon as a Cat 5.

The 5am National hurricane center discussion says it a bit better:
"The UKMET, UK Ensemble mean, and the NAVGEM are the models showing the latest turn, and they forecast Irma to move into
the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and near the west coast of the Florida Peninsula.

The ECMWF and ECMWF Ensemble mean are in the middle of the model pack and show Irma moving over the southeastern portion of the Florida Peninsula.

The GFS, Canadian, and GFS Ensemble mean show the earliest turn and show Irma moving east of the coast of Florida toward the southeastern United States. The new forecast track will best follow the ECMWF, as well as the Florida State Superensemble and the HFIP Corrected Consensus, and it calls for the center to move over portions of the southeastern Florida Peninsula between 72-96 h and then across the Atlantic into southern South Carolina by 120 h.

Users are again reminded not to focus on the exact track since the average NHC track errors at days 3, 4, and 5 are about 120, 175, and 225 miles, respectively."

That last line is very important.




Prospero
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 07 2017 04:56 AM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

The general agreement in the tracks that I was looking at last night when I went to sleep has been shaken up a bit. Might be an interesting day coming up...

JMII
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Sep 07 2017 06:43 AM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Notice her turn seems slower or not as sharp as before. The disagreement in the models is strange considering how tight they were last night. Hopefully those on the west coast of FL are still paying attention, since we can't rule out the GOM yet? Reed Timmer was in Key Largo @ 3AM but plans to relocate north.

JMII
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Sep 07 2017 07:29 AM
Attachment
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

See the attachment... my house is the dot, the line is the current forecast track. It looks like a forecast point!

doug
(Weather Analyst)
Thu Sep 07 2017 08:06 AM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

The whole battle ground can be visualized on the water vapor loop. There are four features impacting where that radical turn will occur and as of right now I think NHC has it right. Feature 1 is the hurricane in the Bay of Campeche which is a block in the southern Gom. 2 is the tropical ridge ,3 is the upper low feature in the Carribean south of Cuba and four is the west to east flow over the peninsula around the periphery of the trough over the SE US. Those features impact each other north of Cuba and south of the Keys as can be scene in the motion of the clouds in that area. That point of contact yesterday was in the Bahamas and it has migrated back west a bit. With Katia hanging out in the GOM for a couple of more days this pattern likely won't change much until the weekend. There is no impediment to Irma continuing all the way to this point of conflict. I am going to focus on this pattern to see if it continues and its potential impact on the future track.

ftlaudbob
(Storm Chaser)
Thu Sep 07 2017 09:11 AM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Quote:

See the attachment... my house is the dot, the line is the current forecast track. It looks like a forecast point!




I lived there for 12 years.My heart goes out to you and all my friends there.This is it,this is the big one we all feared.Be safe.


ftlaudbob
(Storm Chaser)
Thu Sep 07 2017 09:38 AM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

She is not weakening.For so many years down there people would talk about "What if" or "Can you imagine",now that is happening.One of my many fears is that some of the shelters may not survive these winds.

scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Thu Sep 07 2017 10:44 AM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

S Florida gets hurricanes all the time... not 180mph.. but Cat 1-4 (at times)... just think if this would go towards Tampa... still many people there won't leave cause they expect it to miss.. but they do hit the stores and get gas cause of the local media hype of Tampa not being out of the cone...but many that lived here over 10 years have heard a few times of Tampa being in a possible hit zone and they don't get more than squall or nothing at all. Soo many times....

chase 22
(Weather Hobbyist)
Thu Sep 07 2017 10:58 AM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

And that's the problem. Tampa Bay is due for a hurricane. They have been lucky far too many times...Charley being the biggest near miss. I do think that the old timers and natives will take a storm of this magnitude seriously though. It's all the newcomers from New York, Boston, and everywhere else that won't take it very seriously.

Bloodstar
(Moderator)
Thu Sep 07 2017 11:06 AM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

NAM 12z is not something South Florida wants to see materialize. Appears to move to middle keys, then head just east of due north. Have to see if the other models shift.

flnative
(Registered User)
Thu Sep 07 2017 11:13 AM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

I'm in Indian Rocks Beach (the western most point in Pinellas County) just west of the Tampa Metro area. I can assure you everyone here that I've encountered is taking this seriously. Stores have been cleaned out of essentials for 3 days now, gas lines have been long, etc...

Even with the current forecast track, folks here are most definitely preparing.


scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Thu Sep 07 2017 12:14 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Not worried about the Nam model... GFS 12z still keeps the core of the hurricane offshore but hurricane conditions east of the turnpike.. TS conditions maybe as far inland as state route 27 up thru Orlando keeping west coast fine with high clouds. Like to see if the UKMet keeps its course and Euro go 50-100 miles further west via UKMet before I have any concern of a west coast of FL impact of at least TS winds.

OrlandoDan
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Sep 07 2017 12:17 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

It appears as though the 12Z GFS run has shifted a bit west.

doug
(Weather Analyst)
Thu Sep 07 2017 12:23 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

This system is so powerful that it virtually controls the environment surrounding it. My fear is that the statistical models may not be able to factor the potential for Irma to literally over power the customary blocking features to the west and north. That being the case a more westerly point before the turn is still logical and not out of the questionp

AgentB
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 07 2017 12:30 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Quote:

It appears as though the 12Z GFS run has shifted a bit west.




Ever so slightly. Looks to be roughly 29.24N 79.31W at the 6Z run and 29.24N 80.0W at the 12Z.


Hammhound
(Registered User)
Thu Sep 07 2017 12:43 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Is it just me? Irma looks to have wobbled North and is now running on the North side of the prediction cone the last hour.

chase 22
(Weather Hobbyist)
Thu Sep 07 2017 12:50 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

I'm also not seeing how the blocking features will create such a sharp turn to the north like the models are plotting...that is unless Irma slows way down. I just can't see how 175 mph hurricane travelling WNW @ 16 mph will just turn to the north like that.

Corkhill1
(Registered User)
Thu Sep 07 2017 12:55 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Hats off to a great website giving us accurate information and helping us to prepare.
It’s going to take a miracle to move it off shore but I’ll take it.


Bloodstar
(Moderator)
Thu Sep 07 2017 12:58 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Quote:

This system is so powerful that it virtually controls the environment surrounding it. My fear is that the statistical models may not be able to factor the potential for Irma to literally over power the customary blocking features to the west and north. That being the case a more westerly point before the turn is still logical and not out of the questionp




Totally agree, I also worry that the storm will also do a better job holding together against shear.

I do think the GFS is trying to handle that, it is pushing the trough retrograde as Irma pushes in. It's also interesting to see the jet "streak" developing in apparent response to Irma (I put streak in quotes because it's not really that fast, less than 100 KTs).

Irma also seems to be following the PVA that develops over Georgia, which makes sense if there is some upper level divergence near the jet 'streak'.

Both the GFS and NAM 12z take the trough axis from positive to negative and retrograde - which could be what's pulling Irma more west after 84 to 96 hours. Then again, Irma could be what's inducing the trough to go negative, retrograde, and deepen. *Scratches head*

Figures, I don't get to take mesoscale until the spring! LOL


OrlandoDan
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Sep 07 2017 01:07 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Quote:

This system is so powerful that it virtually controls the environment surrounding it. My fear is that the statistical models may not be able to factor the potential for Irma to literally over power the customary blocking features to the west and north. That being the case a more westerly point before the turn is still logical and not out of the questionp




Doug, can you cite some examples of recent history storms where this occurred? Just curious if there is a precedent.


scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Thu Sep 07 2017 01:19 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Not that it matters too much but the 12Z Ukmet is about the same.. maybe not as far west but still has more of a S-N component on days 3-4 to take it up the state... 12Z CMC again shifted west to be closer to the UKMet almost... waiting on GEM still.. but these 3 models aren't what we really go by.. just see them as if a trend might happen. GFS 12Z slightly west but not much.. Euro still waiting. Will note the Nam also went west but that's the last model we only glance at for hurricanes. If the 12Z Euro shows a more west via the CMC and UKmet...then we'll have to see if the GFS keeps slightly going west.. and it's the short term movement that will determine the landfall.. further south it stays thru saturday (and how fast it moves west) before the turn will determine the landfall location in Florida (or off the coast via 6Z and 12Z GFS)

Owlguin
(Weather Hobbyist)
Thu Sep 07 2017 01:39 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Seems to be running slightly North of the forecast points. What, if anything, might that mean?

Doombot!
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 07 2017 01:52 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Quote:

Seems to be running slightly North of the forecast points. What, if anything, might that mean?




Could be a lot of things.

Most likely it's a wobble, but I've also seen storms that parallel PR and Hispaniola move north to "avoid" land friction.

I'd guess there will be a bit of a more of a westerly bend to compensate soon, but if it keeps moving north of the line, that would indicate a weaker Bermuda High and a Florida miss.

Don't count on it, thought. Hurricanes wobble all the time.


scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Thu Sep 07 2017 02:07 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

I don't see it going north of the forecasted pts.. last night it went south of it... question when does it turn more back around 275dg.. tonight? Friday and for how long is the question into saturday before the turn

AgentB
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 07 2017 02:20 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

12Z Euro pushed it back south and west. Skirts the northern coast of Cuba, through the Middle Keys, landfall around Naples and tracks up the peninsula between Orlando and Tampa.

Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Thu Sep 07 2017 02:21 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Quote:

I don't see it going north of the forecasted pts.. last night it went south of it... question when does it turn more back around 275dg.. tonight? Friday and for how long is the question into saturday before the turn


IF it turns...which I'm praying it does, but there's no guarantee it will with the speed at which it's going. We've been through this before. Remember Jeanne?
I sure do. Charley and Frances, too. I'll go with Mike C and Ceil with trusting the models.


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Thu Sep 07 2017 02:25 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Quick summary (I don't have much time this afternoon)
12Z GFS slightly west, just offshore, closest to WPB (20-30 miles) midday Sunday. Landfall midday Monday near Savannah, GA.

12Z Euro shifts west, over Marathon Key as Cat 5. Then landfall southwest Florida Sunday morning, then up through the spine, over or just west of Orlando near Lake City, FL Midday Monday. Extremely devastating run.

More detail later


scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Thu Sep 07 2017 02:29 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Yeah... trending in the models is the key.. GFS went west but only slightly.. HMon and HRWF follow suit when the GFS does things.. but CMC trender further west again..same with GEM and even UKMet is more west into the Keys. This is looking like it will hit florida (80%) or at least skiming the east coast of FL with hurricane force winds... this is on the eastern outliner models.. or if it goes with the GEM/UKMet, Euro.. even Tampa will get TS winds and maybe Hurricane force winds .. especially in Naples,Ft Myers area.

cieldumort
(Moderator)
Thu Sep 07 2017 03:12 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Experimental IBM Deep Thunder model now progging a worst case scenario for Miami, S Florida.

906mb Cat 5 landfall near Key Largo at 04z Sunday Sep 10. Surge alone would demolish much of the region. Winds would likely exceed ability for even the most well-built buildings, high rises, condos to withstand having windows blown out, structural damage. Cranes would likely sway into buildings, or crash into and on them. Etc.

*EXPERIMENTAL MODEL. AS AS WITH ALL MODELS, USE WITH EXTREME CAUTION!*

Image cr: Dan Leonard, Senior meteorologist at the Weather Company.


Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Thu Sep 07 2017 03:41 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Quote:

Yeah... trending in the models is the key.. GFS went west but only slightly.. HMon and HRWF follow suit when the GFS does things.. but CMC trender further west again..same with GEM and even UKMet is more west into the Keys. This is looking like it will hit florida (80%) or at least skiming the east coast of FL with hurricane force winds... this is on the eastern outliner models.. or if it goes with the GEM/UKMet, Euro.. even Tampa will get TS winds and maybe Hurricane force winds .. especially in Naples,Ft Myers area.


I just watched Governor Scott give an update. It doesn't sound great for where I live; we could get 100mph winds (not sustained, of course). I've never been a fear monger and I'm not going to start being one now. Just being cautious. I'm really tired of this storm, to be honest.

Bloodstar
(Moderator)
Thu Sep 07 2017 04:02 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Quote:

Quote:

Yeah... trending in the models is the key.. GFS went west but only slightly.. HMon and HRWF follow suit when the GFS does things.. but CMC trender further west again..same with GEM and even UKMet is more west into the Keys. This is looking like it will hit florida (80%) or at least skiming the east coast of FL with hurricane force winds... this is on the eastern outliner models.. or if it goes with the GEM/UKMet, Euro.. even Tampa will get TS winds and maybe Hurricane force winds .. especially in Naples,Ft Myers area.


I just watched Governor Scott give an update. It doesn't sound great for where I live; we could get 100mph winds (not sustained, of course). I've never been a fear monger and I'm not going to start being one now. Just being cautious. I'm really tired of this storm, to be honest.




I probably shouldn't mention that Jose does a loop in some of the latest runs... J storms and loops LOL (Off topic I know, but gotta find an excuse to smile and not cry)


IsoFlame
(Weather Hobbyist)
Thu Sep 07 2017 04:15 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE


Quote:
"I'm also not seeing how the blocking features will create such a sharp turn to the north like the models are plotting...that is unless Irma slows way down. I just can't see how 175 mph hurricane travelling WNW @ 16 mph will just turn to the north like that. "
-Matt

Agree. Given the historic intensity of this hurricane, the westward "inertia" in track since becoming a major a week ago, and the latitude of the weather features that are forecast to exert increasing influence in 48-72hr, the "turn" may be more of a "bend".


Lamar-Plant City
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Sep 07 2017 04:20 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Quote:

Given the historic intensity of this hurricane, the westward "inertia" in track since becoming a major a week ago, and the latitude of the weather features that are forecast to exert increasing influence in 48-72hr , totally concur. The "turn" may be more of a "bend".




Yeah...we are on the left portion of the cone but I am sensing (and seeing) models trending back towards me. My house is up and flood-safe and I have pretty solid home-made shutters that can go up quickly. But my 80 year old mom is in eastern Polk country (right under the paths of Charlie, Frances AND Jeanne) and with dad gone I will have to keep an eye out for her and the property as well.....THE TURN is what it is all about now...a little longer or less and we are dead center! Resting up today as the next 3 may be busy!


cieldumort
(Moderator)
Thu Sep 07 2017 04:30 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

GFS has been showing a distinct poleward bias vs ECMWF. w/ the ECMWF verifying much better. Almost spot-on.


Mapping cr. Brian Tang, Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences University at Albany.
H/t Philippe Papin


Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Thu Sep 07 2017 04:53 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

Yeah... trending in the models is the key.. GFS went west but only slightly.. HMon and HRWF follow suit when the GFS does things.. but CMC trender further west again..same with GEM and even UKMet is more west into the Keys. This is looking like it will hit florida (80%) or at least skiming the east coast of FL with hurricane force winds... this is on the eastern outliner models.. or if it goes with the GEM/UKMet, Euro.. even Tampa will get TS winds and maybe Hurricane force winds .. especially in Naples,Ft Myers area.


I just watched Governor Scott give an update. It doesn't sound great for where I live; we could get 100mph winds (not sustained, of course). I've never been a fear monger and I'm not going to start being one now. Just being cautious. I'm really tired of this storm, to be honest.




I probably shouldn't mention that Jose does a loop in some of the latest runs... J storms and loops LOL (Off topic I know, but gotta find an excuse to smile and not cry)



I hear you. ;-) I'm doing laundry like I work at a laundromat and cleaning like a maniac. Including the fridge. Stay safe. Tampa is backed up on all roads.

Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Thu Sep 07 2017 04:55 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

Yeah... trending in the models is the key.. GFS went west but only slightly.. HMon and HRWF follow suit when the GFS does things.. but CMC trender further west again..same with GEM and even UKMet is more west into the Keys. This is looking like it will hit florida (80%) or at least skiming the east coast of FL with hurricane force winds... this is on the eastern outliner models.. or if it goes with the GEM/UKMet, Euro.. even Tampa will get TS winds and maybe Hurricane force winds .. especially in Naples,Ft Myers area.


I just watched Governor Scott give an update. It doesn't sound great for where I live; we could get 100mph winds (not sustained, of course). I've never been a fear monger and I'm not going to start being one now. Just being cautious. I'm really tired of this storm, to be honest.




I probably shouldn't mention that Jose does a loop in some of the latest runs... J storms and loops LOL (Off topic I know, but gotta find an excuse to smile and not cry)





Mike V
(Verified CFHC User)
Thu Sep 07 2017 04:59 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Quote:

Quote:


I probably shouldn't mention that Jose does a loop in some of the latest runs... J storms and loops LOL (Off topic I know, but gotta find an excuse to smile and not cry)



I hear you. ;-) I'm doing laundry like I work at a laundromat and cleaning like a maniac. Including the fridge. Stay safe. Tampa is backed up on all roads.




I saw that and that is the last thing we are going to need down here.


chase 22
(Weather Hobbyist)
Thu Sep 07 2017 05:06 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Quote:

Tampa is backed up on all roads.




My wife's family left last night from Tampa. It took them over 4 hours just to get to Perry. Everywhere is gridlocked and out of gas. They're going to have to contraflow if they order any more mandatory evacuations. I'm actually surprised that I-95 and the turnpike aren't contraflow already.


chance
(Verified CFHC User)
Thu Sep 07 2017 05:07 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Can someone tell me what effect Sarasota would have if the center went right where the 5pm update has it? i know it can change either way but just if it went where the 5pm update has it right up the middle of the state what effect do you think i would get in Sarasota thanks i am just trying to fogure out weather to leave or stay.

JMII
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Sep 07 2017 05:11 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Quote:

I'm also not seeing how the blocking features will create such a sharp turn to the north like the models are plotting...that is unless Irma slows way down. I just can't see how 175 mph hurricane travelling WNW @ 16 mph will just turn to the north like that.




I too was asking about this before. The forecast path shows such a sharp turn. Big things can't turn corners very well. It was pointed out that Wilma did turn like this, but only after slowing to crawl. Such motion should be easy to track via the Key West radar.

We are all shuttered up here... just the trash cans to bring in, garage and vehicle lock down tomorrow. Then make the call to stick around or bolt to Central or West coast of FL depending on the dreaded cone. If it stays offshore I feel safe, it would like Wilma. If she is onshore then we gotta go, way too dangerous.

5PM update, right down the middle of the state again!


scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Thu Sep 07 2017 05:17 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

If you're going to leave.. you still have time cause we still need more model runs for 3 days out or so. Will have a good idea later tonight after the 0z runs... as of now..from the points the NHC gave.. you'll be on the west side.. probably TS force winds wind, rain, power outages...any more jog to the west will put you in hurricane conditions.. anything more back to the east will probably give you squalls of TS force winds between bands

scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Thu Sep 07 2017 05:18 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

It's forecasted to slow some Saturday afternoon into the night as it turns NNW

Lamar-Plant City
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Sep 07 2017 05:21 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

That was quite a shift west for the cone at 5pm! Brings a lot more of my interest back into more serious categories....I am still just kind of sitting and making plans. Still plenty of time to get mom's shutters up if the guy who put them in doesn't, get her here and board up my place if need be....I never really believed the GFS with its dramatic eastward shift the other night....stay on it, guys!

B.C.Francis
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Sep 07 2017 05:29 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

I have to agree with you about the shift to the left. Kind of puts me in the dirty side a lot more then I`d like. We`ll see at 11:00.

leetdan
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 07 2017 05:54 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

18Z GFS is moving left, coming ashore in Miami-Dade. The last several runs kept it offshore.

drummingcraig
(Registered User)
Thu Sep 07 2017 06:14 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Quote:



My wife's family left last night from Tampa. It took them over 4 hours just to get to Perry. Everywhere is gridlocked and out of gas. They're going to have to contraflow if they order any more mandatory evacuations. I'm actually surprised that I-95 and the turnpike aren't contraflow already.




My guess would be that they are trying to get as much gas/supplies down South as possible. As soon as they flip the Southbound lanes it is all but gonna cutoff timely deliveries (same can be said about 75).

First post here BTW. Been lurking for a few days since my dad linked me here. Hello to all (wish I could say that under happier circumstances).


scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Thu Sep 07 2017 06:17 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

0z will be important model runs...we'll see if the UKMet,Euro,GEM stay the same, move west or east... and also what the GFS does then. I don't care much for the CMC, or Hurricane models tbh really. Euro and UKMet has done best so far with Irma. I expect the cone will be adjust slightly again to the west cause of the 18Z GFS at 11pm

Corkhill1
(Registered User)
Thu Sep 07 2017 06:18 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

NHC has been showing us it was coming to Florida so use the cone not the line.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
The miracle is still possible but be ready.


Rob Moser
(Registered User)
Thu Sep 07 2017 06:33 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

From our experience with Wilma in Naples, power was out for 4 days. Winds gusted to 115mph in North Naples (Vineyards). Lack of power is likely to be much more severe with the entire state grid potentially damaged. With South FL extreme rains over the last 3 mo, Irma could stay stronger longer. Take heed... leave while you can. Better safe than sorry. Euro predicted track - not good -

bahamaweather
(Verified CFHC User)
Thu Sep 07 2017 07:43 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Wobble to the west...

OrlandoDan
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Sep 07 2017 07:53 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

This board is eerily quiet. Are we all waiting for the 00Z model runs?

bahamaweather
(Verified CFHC User)
Thu Sep 07 2017 08:02 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Quote:

This board is eerily quiet. Are we all waiting for the 00Z model runs?




I think a consistent west drift of those runs will be pretty conclusive.


doug
(Weather Analyst)
Thu Sep 07 2017 08:06 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Not much to say. Time for speculating is about over. Making our plans definite. I have not been through something similar since Donna in 1960.

MichaelA
(Weather Analyst)
Thu Sep 07 2017 08:16 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Saturday is my final prep day and battening down time. Will decide whether to board up late Saturday or early Sunday depending on Irma's location and local weather conditions. I have to work all day tomorrow.

Rubber Ducky
(Weather Watcher)
Thu Sep 07 2017 08:19 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

I rode out Donna in the Thames river, Groton CT, submerged in a submarine (USS CAVALLA - SS 244). Tied to pier, as were all the New London boats. Cycle the vents and sit on the bottom. About 2 ft of water over the piers at the height of the storm. Watched it all thru the periscope.

JMII
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Sep 07 2017 08:26 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Quote:

This board is eerily quiet. Are we all waiting for the 00Z model runs?




I think reality is setting in, we are looking a potential state wide disaster. On top of that one look at Jose's track makes you sick.


Prospero
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 07 2017 08:28 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

We have "Hurricane Canvas" to cover the windows and sliding doors on the newer part of our home, and lined up a reputable guy to come by tomorrow to put up plywood on our older windows. (First time ever!)

But, even though the websites say otherwise, Home Depot and Lowes around here appear to be completely sold out.

Oh well, still thinking it will miss us to the East, but the nervous energy in Florida is at an all time high. I would suspect many times higher than at the period of Andrew approaching. We just hope the paranoia and fear is unfounded primarily based on media hype and not based on the ripples of time working backwards.


chase 22
(Weather Hobbyist)
Thu Sep 07 2017 08:41 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Quote:

This board is eerily quiet. Are we all waiting for the 00Z model runs?




Not much to say that hasn't been said already. I think we're all in agreement on a Westward shift in the models. I'm watching the Westward wobble to see if it becomes a trend.


chase 22
(Weather Hobbyist)
Thu Sep 07 2017 09:04 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Pressure down to 919

scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Thu Sep 07 2017 09:19 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Accuweather stinks..... they are never "LIVE" and they spend most of the time talking about the western 2/3 of the country... and there is no local weather.... How does any cable company pick them up!!..

scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Thu Sep 07 2017 09:21 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Back to Irma.... has she already started her more W movement I think of around 275dg?? .... If so, this might have the UKMET as being correct and it might make landfall in 24hrs or so in N Cuba or skim the coastline

Lamar-Plant City
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Sep 07 2017 09:27 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Dug the generator out from where it has been hidden for over 10 years tonight...the sheet is real. Called mom and planning to get her battened down and bring her back here Saturday morning. If the current track or anything west confirms, I will put my shuttering up late Saturday (on the north side at least) and decide on the south side Sunday morning....unless I say screw it and just do the whole thing Saturday....not as young as I was 10 years ago. Trying to find space in garages for all of the cars....also may have to do something to the house next door which is vacant and owned by a friend who is in Bermuda. Lots to do and hopefully plenty of time to do it!

TheOtherRick
(Weather Watcher)
Thu Sep 07 2017 10:02 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Quote:

Back to Irma.... has she already started her more W movement I think of around 275dg?? .... If so, this might have the UKMET as being correct and it might make landfall in 24hrs or so in N Cuba or skim the coastline




Yeah, they''d be the geniuses. Doesn't have to keep it up much longer before those tall mountains on that side of Cuba start affecting it. Seems like they've started already, Haiti definitely has.


bahamaweather
(Verified CFHC User)
Thu Sep 07 2017 10:31 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

I can definitely see the western movement. Didn't most of the models, including the GFS and Euro show a western movement before the hook to the north?

I can't remember- I've been looking at too many models.

At this point I guess it's down to timing- it looks like the route of escape for Florida is just about done.


Prospero
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 07 2017 10:39 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Quote:

chance:
Can someone tell me what effect Sarasota would have if the center went right where the 5pm update has it? i know it can change either way but just if it went where the 5pm update has it right up the middle of the state what effect do you think i would get in Sarasota thanks i am just trying to fogure out weather to leave or stay.




Here is a visual with a Florida outline superimposed over Irma in the same scale:



Prospero
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 07 2017 11:26 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

11:00 PM update, my heart sank a little...

OK, speaking for everyone on the west coast of Florida:

All of us wishing for Irma to stay east of us is in no way reflective of how much we much we love you and care about your safety, your lives, families, homes, possessions, and everything else. We are just terrified to think of Irma running up the super warm waters just off to our east pushing the Gulf of Mexico into our towns with Cat anything force wind.

Our beautiful west coast Florida hasn't been tore up in a while. We are not eager for the next time.


scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Thu Sep 07 2017 11:44 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

0z GFS goes back east 30 miles at least

Lamar-Plant City
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Sep 07 2017 11:47 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Quote:

0z GFS goes back east 30 miles at least




Can't we just ignore the GFS...it hasn't been remotely accurate throughout the entire history of this storm....


Bloodstar
(Moderator)
Thu Sep 07 2017 11:47 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Quote:

0z GFS goes back east 30 miles at least




00z NAM is now curving to the point of missing FL, GA, SC, and NC. Thats... unexpected.


scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Thu Sep 07 2017 11:52 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Nam is garbage.. we look at it for laughs... it doesn't do well with Tropical Systems

USF893
(Registered User)
Fri Sep 08 2017 12:00 AM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

The NHC "model" has been the most accurate so far.

cieldumort
(Moderator)
Fri Sep 08 2017 12:10 AM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Quote:

00z NAM is now curving to the point of missing FL, GA, SC, and NC. Thats... unexpected.




NAM is about the last model I consider for tropical cyclones, but that is interesting. The larger trend is mostly baked in with the best TC track guidance. Florida and/or Southeast. Large system, with impacts likely direct hit or not.


WestFLJess
(Registered User)
Fri Sep 08 2017 12:16 AM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Post deleted by Cieldumort

scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Fri Sep 08 2017 12:36 AM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

I don't know if you're kidding or not with the XTRP but that isn't a model.. it's a current extrapolated movement it's current moving at.. example.. if Irma is moving around 285dg.. it will show that in XTRP the direction of 285dg.

CMC also slightly east also.. but I only weigh that slightly over the Nam... I like the Euro with this....GFS out to 48hrs and UKMet solutions


scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Fri Sep 08 2017 02:29 AM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Euro is slightly west with landfall middle keys and up thru to Labelle,Fl between Ft Myers and Lake Okeechobee by 0Z Monday (72hrs)

dolfinatic
(Weather Guru)
Fri Sep 08 2017 02:32 AM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Latest Euro with another shift west. Getting too close for comfort for us on the west coast. I am under a evac order at 6am and have been trying to decide whether to go or not. Im on St. Pete Beach. If west trend continues Irma will make that decision for me. UGH!!!!

Bloodstar
(Moderator)
Fri Sep 08 2017 02:33 AM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

I see what the NAM is doing, for whatever reason, it's ignoring the trough over AL and MS, and instead is taking the jet off the east coast to pull Irma to the east.

The models have decided to run Irma up the middle of florida for 00z, Not much time left for anything unexpected to happen, So south florida is looking pretty committed to a direct hit. Will it be east, central, or west of southern florida, that's the remaining question I think?


OrlandoDan
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Sep 08 2017 02:48 AM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

I am taking the day off. My office is in St Pete and I work remote from Orlando. My son and I are going to start boarding up and finish tomorrow. Also going to clean out the garage to make room for the patio furniture. The basketball hoop is going to be taken apart and is coming down.

Does anyone have a decent estimate of the possible range of winds and gusts in Northwest Orlando?


craigm
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Sep 08 2017 05:10 AM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Quote:

I am taking the day off. My office is in St Pete and I work remote from Orlando. My son and I are going to start boarding up and finish tomorrow. Also going to clean out the garage to make room for the patio furniture. The basketball hoop is going to be taken apart and is coming down.

Does anyone have a decent estimate of the possible range of winds and gusts in Northwest Orlando?



I just looked up the strongest wind gusts reported in Charley - 106 mph in Orlando. Compare Charley with Irma at landfall then add or subtract forward motion depending on which side of the eye wall you experience. If I had to take a guess, which I am doing, I would say gusts around 125 sustained around 100. Unfortunately I could be way off. I don't think we have a benchmark for this storm at least as long as I have lived in Florida - 45 years


WestFLJess
(Registered User)
Fri Sep 08 2017 06:23 AM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Quote:

Latest Euro with another shift west. Getting too close for comfort for us on the west coast. I am under a evac order at 6am and have been trying to decide whether to go or not. Im on St. Pete Beach. If west trend continues Irma will make that decision for me. UGH!!!!




NHC shows an "H" vs "M" around the time Irma gets north to Tampa Bay area. Do you think it will be worn down significantly by then?

I have to work and run a business in St Pete today. Important work so we don't close until we can't get in or we are ordered away. Will be an interesting AM with this shift West. Hopefully zone B won't evacuate, otherwise I am not sure where we will go.


JMII
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Sep 08 2017 06:27 AM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Quote:

If I had to take a guess, which I am doing, I would say gusts around 125 sustained around 100.




Seems about right as https://www.ventusky.com graphics (based on the GFS) shows 90 MPH gusts (just outside eastern core). However that model also has the center sitting over Palm Bay at 11PM on Sunday. Move the center directly over Orlando and 120 MPH gusts begin to show up (northern eye wall). The http://www.skeetobiteweather.com graphics show Cat 2 wind field in Orlando.

The 5AM update is a punch to the gut. Model tracks are grouped tightly from up the spine to just on the coast.

Made the call... we are heading to my parents place in Lake Placid, FL. Worried about trees coming down and being trapped in a rural area vs the 'burbs but a few miles could be the difference between days without power and WEEKS without power based on previous storm experience.


OrlandoDan
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Sep 08 2017 06:40 AM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

06z GFS appears to have shifted just a tad west. It's time to start executing the board up plan here in Orlando.

Londovir
(Weather Guru)
Fri Sep 08 2017 08:42 AM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

I notice both the GFS and Euro are spinning up a successor to Irma out in the Atlantic by 10 days, with the longer running GFS bringing it on a more northern but similar track through the Caribbean. Looks to be an "active" active period for the basin for sure.

Stephen250
(Registered User)
Fri Sep 08 2017 08:49 AM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

I live in Savannah, Georgia.

All of the paths look pretty sure that it's going to hit southern Florida and make its way through the state.

By the time out it reaches Georgia, it will be significantly weaker.

We are considering not evacuating, even though there's a mandatory evacuation tomorrow due to this, dependant on the paths.

If Irma continues on this path and it's correct, what would you guesstimate the wind for Savannah, Georgia?

I'm guessing weak tropical.storm force or less.

I'm praying for y'all down in Florida.


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Fri Sep 08 2017 09:06 AM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Euro and GFS shifted slightly west overnight, actually worse track as it brings more of naples and Tampa into the picture. May nick Cuba like the Euro and Ukmet say, but the conditions in the straits will be ideal for strengthening. It'll be chaotic for sure. If it shifts further west, Surge thread goes way way up for the west coast. The GFS has another hurricane moving in a simialr path to Irma around Sep 23rd (not Jose), although that far out in time is beyond unreliable, it's just an interesting footnote.




scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Fri Sep 08 2017 11:01 AM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

You might get 40-50mph winds on squalls..but it looks like the center will be almost 200miles to your west since it will be moving NNW to NW by Monday

B.C.Francis
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Sep 08 2017 11:03 AM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Looks like a ever slight shift to the left. I keeps this up those on the lower west coast might need to watch more closely if they`re still down there. The whole state looks like we`re going to get a weather event that will be talked about for some time to come

MissBecky
(Weather Guru)
Fri Sep 08 2017 11:51 AM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Watching it very closely here in Ft. Myers. Put my shutters up this morning. Local mets are talking about the storm surge, so at least people are aware. Barrier islands like Captiva and Sanibel have mandatory evacuations so hopefully they will get out in time.

AgentB
(Weather Guru)
Fri Sep 08 2017 12:06 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

12Z GFS keeps it slightly west of the center of the state with landfall somewhere between Naples and the Everglades. Regardless, everywhere in this state will feel effects to some degree. Hopefully, some of those more southern tracks pan out and Cuba can take a little energy out of this thing. Stay safe!

Corkhill1
(Registered User)
Fri Sep 08 2017 12:09 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

So, if the eye goes left of you and you are located on the right side of the eye (no pun here believe me) then the force of the wind is increased by the forward speed of the hurricane. For example, if the eye goes west of Orlando and the hurricane is traveling at 10mph and the wind speed is say 100mph, then you add 10mph to the 100mph a total of 110mph in Orlando, just to use round numbers. Likewise, if the forward speed is 20mph then the total affect would be 120mph in Orlando. This is a Hugh hurricane which will probably spun twisters with much higher force winds around them. Think safety first.

cieldumort
(Moderator)
Fri Sep 08 2017 12:34 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Estimating winds in tropical cyclones -

The forward speed addition is already included in the maximum wind speed. You do not add to that. However, if you are on the left side of a tropical cyclone's forward motion, it is reasonable to subtract the forward speed to get the max possible for that side.

Once tropical cyclones are over land, their maximum sustained winds over water tend to show up as gusts, rather than 1-min averages ("sustained").


Corkhill1
(Registered User)
Fri Sep 08 2017 01:05 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Thank you for the clarification, very helpful on wind speeds.
I am sure you noticed the NHC center line shown on Fla Radar from this site http://flhurricane.com/flradar.php
a small crimp to the west around upper Marion County, Florida.
Interesting?


Lamar-Plant City
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Sep 08 2017 01:30 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Being blessed so far this morning. Generator that hadn't been run in 12 years started on the first crank. Wawa here has gas and no-ethanol so I filled the gen tank and then all of my spare cans with it (ethanol is horrible for the carburetors). Also got silicon sealer for the tub, a hatchet (mine was broken), 2 nice buckets and a cool pump siphon all at Tractor supply. Got daughter's car filled AND located the long lost bag of wing nuts that will secure my shutters!!! So far, so good. I am just praying that it does NOT get to the west of us. My mom's is now set to be east of the eye which is NOT good. Getting her tomorrow morning!

JMII.
(Registered User)
Fri Sep 08 2017 01:50 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Quote:

12Z GFS keeps it slightly west of the center of the state with landfall somewhere between Naples and the Everglades. Regardless, everywhere in this state will feel effects to some degree. Hopefully, some of those more southern tracks pan out and Cuba can take a little energy out of this thing. Stay safe!




Another tweak to the west at 2PM. Hope those on the west coast have been paying attention... it sounds like they have.

Had to create a new account my previous one wouldn't log in despite resetting my password (twice in fact).


scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Fri Sep 08 2017 02:04 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Looks like Cuba will get a landfall.. might take it down to Cat 3.. but will be close.... more like thru it's northern islands. It's starting to look like the bend might happen slightly later, the further west it gets.. wouldn't shock me if landfall isn't up to Ft Myers-Sarasota...but Naples area is current thinking.

Kraig
(Weather Watcher)
Fri Sep 08 2017 02:19 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Quote:

Another tweak to the west at 2PM. Hope those on the west coast have been paying attention... it sounds like they have.

Had to create a new account my previous one wouldn't log in despite resetting my password (twice in fact).




"At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the distinct eye of Hurricane Irma was
located by a reconnaissance plane and Cuban radars near latitude
22.0 North, longitude 76.0 West. Irma has been moving toward the
west near 14 mph (22 km/h), but the hurricane should resume a
west-northwest motion later today."

Wonder if this movement to the west is a prolonged wobble influenced by the Cuban topography....blocking off some of the southern inflow and drawing Irma to the south?


islandtime
(Registered User)
Fri Sep 08 2017 02:46 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Can someone explain the difference between the steering currents this time yesterday and the one from today? Yesterday i could see the reasoning of the "cog" effect of the high and low pulling the storm northward. Today it looks like the currents should continue taking it west.

Yesterday:


Today:


scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Fri Sep 08 2017 02:47 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

A wobble NW is happening.. but it should continue more W or 275dg through the evening and tonight

MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Fri Sep 08 2017 02:51 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

12z Gfs slight shift west, euro slight shift west. Sunday morning, landfall near Long key, then lanfall near Flamingo Sunday afternoon. passes north over winter haven, and goes just west of orlando and in Atlanta by early Tuesday morning.

12z Euro slight shift west, but into Cuba, Keys landfall Sunday morning near Marathon, Mainland Florida landfall sunday affternoon near Everglades City, cat 4/5 then up over lakeland, Ocala, and Gainesville. Hurricane force winds extend east/west the entire state.

12z UkMet shifts EAST and does a bare scrape of Cuba (prior it was west and well into Cuba) but remainder of the track is like the Euro.


abyrd
(Weather Hobbyist)
Fri Sep 08 2017 02:58 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Quote:

[quote

Wonder if this movement to the west is a prolonged wobble influenced by the Cuban topography....blocking off some of the southern inflow and drawing Irma to the south?




I thought so too, but the last couple of satellite frames show a turn back wnw. Just a long wobble.


chase 22
(Weather Hobbyist)
Fri Sep 08 2017 03:15 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Quote:

Can someone explain the difference between the steering currents this time yesterday and the one from today? Yesterday i could see the reasoning of the "cog" effect of the high and low pulling the storm northward. Today it looks like the currents should continue taking it west.




Maybe this clears it up. (Disclaimer: Track not exactly accurate lol!)




Kraig
(Weather Watcher)
Fri Sep 08 2017 03:30 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Quote:

12z Euro slight shift west, but into Cuba, Keys landfall Sunday morning near Marathon, Mainland Florida landfall sunday affternoon near Everglades City, cat 4/5 then up over lakeland, Ocala, and Gainesville. Hurricane force winds extend east/west the entire state.




Hurricane force winds extend east/west the entire state. = meaning peninsular Florida, not the "entire state" including the panhandle....correct?


islandtime
(Registered User)
Fri Sep 08 2017 03:31 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Quote:

Quote:

Can someone explain the difference between the steering currents this time yesterday and the one from today? Yesterday i could see the reasoning of the "cog" effect of the high and low pulling the storm northward. Today it looks like the currents should continue taking it west.




Maybe this clears it up. (Disclaimer: Track not exactly accurate lol!)




How are the lines moving east to west that the storm is in now (in the image) not keeping it going west?


M.A.
(Weather Hobbyist)
Fri Sep 08 2017 04:33 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

The way I see that chart, the winds are less than 10knts. So the steering currents are not all that strong. We know that a storm this size doesn't exactly read all the papers telling it what it should be doing.

M.A.
(Weather Hobbyist)
Fri Sep 08 2017 04:48 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Irma's eye seems to be getting less occluded on the last couple of frames of the visible sat. End of an ERC? WNW wobbles. I believe it stays off the northern coast of Cuba and this track.

Lamar-Plant City
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Sep 08 2017 04:51 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Quote:

The way I see that chart, the winds are less than 10knts. So the steering currents are not all that strong. We know that a storm this size doesn't exactly read all the papers telling it what it should be doing.




I believe that is a wind shear map....so the shear is at 10 knts....which is pretty low.


JMII
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Sep 08 2017 05:15 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Beginning to rethink my plan. Might be worst here in Sebring that back home in Margate/Coral Springs if we get any more westward shifts. The problem here in central-ish FL are the trees - so many big, mature trees, like massive oaks and pines. I have no such around my house in the 'burbs.

Got my previous account working again, password reset just takes longer.


tracerrx
(Registered User)
Fri Sep 08 2017 05:22 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Also decided to stay in Boca (New house, hurricane glass, genset) instead of our place in sebring. Was worried about being able to get back from Sebring -> East Coast

B.C.Francis
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Sep 08 2017 05:36 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

I think you made a good move

Lamar-Plant City
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Sep 08 2017 05:39 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

If you follow the latest projected track..look at where it passes right between Hillsborough and Polk counties....and that is my house...right THERE! I really don't want to be to the right of this storm track....really....if it keeps going west, we may relocate the whole kit and kaboodle to my mom's place in Lake Wales....it is on the right but would be much farther from the core....dang!

MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Fri Sep 08 2017 05:49 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

18Z GFS run, scrapes Cubas north coast (offshore), landfall cat 5 just east of Key West (which is a shift west of the 12z run) late Sunday morning, mainland landfall south of Napes, Cat 5 late Sunday.

Over Wauchula, FL early Monday morning, cat 3/4 Cat 3 Over Bushnell by late Monday morning. Hurricane force winds extend all the way along the peninsula east and west through this point. Near live oak/Lake City, FL Monday afternoon, Cat 1/2, winds dying down either way. Worse winds (additive effect relative to forward motion) on right side. West side has negative effect on windspeed due to forward motion. The rides up I-75 into Georgia weakening the whole way. (Atlanta will get some TS winds)



OrlandoDan
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Sep 08 2017 05:55 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

So Orlando looks like it will be on the strong side of the storm now. I spent the entire day boarding up. What a pain due to the rock facade on the concrete block. Have to cut pieces of 2x4 and drill those into the block on the window frame and then perfectly cut plywood to screw into those. Took me 10 hours to do the remaining half of the windows that I had not done for Mathew.

Looks like another shift west would not be unreasonable now. We shall see.


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Fri Sep 08 2017 05:56 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Wanted to repost this from Mike Watkins

Don't be a wobble watcher!

The forecast for Irma has shifted subtly west over the last 24 hours.

If you're in Naples, the natural inclination is "this is bad news for us".

If you're in Miami, it's easy to believe this to be good news, and I've seen many posts that express relief.

The meteorological reality is this: neither are true.

Both sides of the coast are under a hurricane warning since last night, which means hurricane conditions are possible in either location.

In fact, I would bet every dollar I have that in 48 hours from now, Irma will not be exactly on the 2PM Sunday forecast position even though the forecast models are in tight agreement. Why? Agreement DOES NOT EQUAL accuracy.

At this time yesterday the forecast thinking was reversed. 2 days ago, west was bad, east was good.

Our ability to forecast exactly where the worst winds will be in 2 days is not 100% accurate. What happens if the model runs tonight shift back east? Then what?

We know that the odd shape of the Florida coast makes even a tiny shift in track huge for someplace. Remember Charley was supposed to go to Tampa, and it made a last second right turn?

This is a VERY complex situation, meteorologically speaking. The exact timing of the trough over the northeast, the short-wave diving in from the mid west, and the hurricane's inner mechanics all are unknown. Our models and forecasters can make predictions on what we know, but like always, we don't know what we don't know.

This is why it is extremely important that residents on both sides of the peninsula prepare for the worst. Do not let your guard down and do less tonight because it "doesn't look as bad for you". It's easy to think that way when you're tired, and we're all tired from preparing and watching every single update. Don't let the tired lead to a bad decision. This is not a sprint, it's a marathon.

Sooner than any of realize, the time to prepare safely will be out. It could be as early as Saturday afternoon. Don't watch the wobbles. Prepare for the worst, and hope for the best. If it misses your house, be thankful afterwards, and sleep tonight knowing you've done everything you can to prepare.

Mike


OrlandoDan
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Sep 08 2017 06:12 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Lamar. Best of luck to you. As bad as it may be, it's good that you prepared.

JMII
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Sep 08 2017 06:37 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Quote:

Was worried about being able to get back from Sebring -> East Coast




I'm worried about just getting one block down the street. That is after climbing out from under a house that has an oak tree sitting on top of it.

Quote:

Don't be a wobble watcher!




But are these wobbles or trends? Yesterday we had plenty of the "wiper effect" with the models flipping back and forth - east coast / west coast. 20 miles here or there suddenly starts to add up. I know Andrew was much smaller/more compact system but as I posted a few days ago (feels like weeks) there was a remarkable difference in damage from southern Broward, to central Dade, to southern Dade.

Irma looks to encounter some strong shear (finally!) about 1/2 way up the state which should allow some weakening during her run north. Right now that is what I'm counting on.


ftlaudbob
(Storm Chaser)
Fri Sep 08 2017 06:50 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Quote:

Quote:

Was worried about being able to get back from Sebring -> East Coast




I'm worried about just getting one block down the street. That is after climbing out from under a house that has an oak tree sitting on top of it.

Quote:

Don't be a wobble watcher!




But are these wobbles or trends? Yesterday we had plenty of the "wiper effect" with the models flipping back and forth - east coast / west coast. 20 miles here or there suddenly starts to add up. I know Andrew was much smaller/more compact system but as I posted a few days ago (feels like weeks) there was a remarkable difference in damage from southern Broward, to central Dade, to southern Dade.

Irma looks to encounter some strong shear (finally!) about 1/2 way up the state which should allow some weakening during her run north. Right now that is what I'm counting on.




But it is now forecast to go back up to a 5 at landfall.


danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Fri Sep 08 2017 07:05 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Latest NHC forecast forecasts Irma at a Cat 5 Landfall.

36H 10/0600Z 2 AM EDT early Sunday Morning
24.1N 81.0W 140 KT 160 MPH.

Category 5 begins at 139 knots. So Yes. At this time Landfall as a Cat 5.

The Lat/ Long given above is just South of Vaca Key in the Florida Straits


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Fri Sep 08 2017 07:27 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

{{Twitterembed|906266219304685568}}

JMII
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Sep 08 2017 07:30 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Going to be hard for her to avoid hitting Cuba, tracking very closely to due W. Has come N maybe .3 degrees in the last 5 hours?
NHC's next forecast position looks spot on.


danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Fri Sep 08 2017 08:03 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Yes Mike and NWS Key West. You do have time to Get Out.

I hate to use those words. But Get Out and Get High.
Get out of the Islands and Low Lying areas and try to get at lease 20 feet above sea level. If at all possible.


MissBecky
(Weather Guru)
Fri Sep 08 2017 08:11 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Thank you Mike. Not just for this post, but for all you do for this site and for those of us who come here for information.

I was out a little bit tonight and I can tell you everyone I've seen in Ft. Myers is taking this storm very seriously and getting as prepared as best they can. It's encouraging to see that. All of us here remember Charley very well and know that things can change drastically in a short period of time.


TheOtherRick
(Weather Watcher)
Fri Sep 08 2017 08:27 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Looks like it's sorting out the eye-wall and tightening up just as it's about to rake across the Cuba coastline. And perhaps q little further onshore than expected. Bad news for Cuba.

JMII
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Sep 08 2017 08:35 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Quote:

Looks like it's sorting out the eye-wall and tightening up just as it's about to rake across the Cuba coastline.




Noticed that as well, eye was ragged but the core is building again. Visible on the floater image: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/11L/html5-rb-long.html outflow seems limited on NW side is she starting to feel the trough? You can see the lower levels of weather moving SW from Lake O.

95 miles from Irma's center is Ignacio Agramonte International - winds are W at 60. They were WNW and just turned. Pressure still appears to be dropping.


danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Fri Sep 08 2017 09:11 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge


Very good web page for the 4 main questions. Wind, Surge, Rainfall and Tornado Threats.

NWS Southern Region Tropical Threat Page


TheOtherRick
(Weather Watcher)
Fri Sep 08 2017 09:21 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Could be a wobble, who knows, but a little in this case is a lot. It's about half the width of the now smaller eye-wall further inland. Puts the right hand quadrant over the barrier islands.

StormHound
(Weather Guru)
Fri Sep 08 2017 09:52 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Any radar we can watch as she interacts with Cuba?

M.A.
(Weather Hobbyist)
Fri Sep 08 2017 09:57 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Wobble or not It sure looks as though Irma is heading into Cuba. Almost 1/2 the eye looks to be moving on shore.

MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Fri Sep 08 2017 10:04 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Quote:

Any radar we can watch as she interacts with Cuba?




http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?301 has the cuban radar (over a long period)

A lot more Irma recordings are here http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/animationlist.php


JMII
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Sep 08 2017 10:14 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

On the floater she is south of her forecast position. The floater is too zoomed out, so I switched to Wundergrounds Wunder Map.
Coming ashore in Cuba.
Pressure falling at the airport, winds up to 67 mph out of the WSW with Irma's eye 50 miles due north.


M.A.
(Weather Hobbyist)
Fri Sep 08 2017 10:20 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

The only models that I recall bringing Irma onshore Cuba were CMC and HMON.

TheOtherRick
(Weather Watcher)
Fri Sep 08 2017 10:38 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Quote:

The only models that I recall bringing Irma onshore Cuba were CMC and HMON.


1

They backed off a little at 1200 but UKMET has been predicting the Cuba adventure all along. I don't know what 0000 is.

There's some mountains in there, that eye goes totally inland, it has to take a lot of the energy away. And seems more likely a westward shift too. Could change everything.


pincty
(Weather Watcher)
Fri Sep 08 2017 10:49 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Irma has been bogged down in the area of Cuba where she is now for quite a while. If not for this, Irma would be further west by now. Do you think that this could move the forecast a bit east since Irma won't be as far west when she makes her anticipated NW and then N turn?

danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Fri Sep 08 2017 11:00 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

NHC just bumped Irma to Category 5

..IRMA MAKING LANDFALL ON THE CAMAGUEY ARCHIPELAGO OF CUBA AS A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE... ...HURRICANE WARNINGS EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...


StormHound
(Weather Guru)
Fri Sep 08 2017 11:02 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Quote:

On the floater she is south of her forecast position. The floater is too zoomed out, so I switched to Wundergrounds Wunder Map.
Coming ashore in Cuba.
Pressure falling at the airport, winds up to 67 mph out of the WSW with Irma's eye 50 miles due north.




I'm using weathernerds.org and using the Zoom Feature. Really fascinating and unexpected. Does not appear to be making the north turn, though there was a NW jog a frame or two ago. The next few hours could change everything, or nothing.


danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Fri Sep 08 2017 11:08 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Former Director of the National Hurricane Center Dr Rick Knabb has asked everyone still in the Florida Keys right now.

To leave tonight to prevent Fatalities in the Keys.


JMII
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Sep 08 2017 11:08 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Quote:

Could change everything




Double landfalls - Irma in Cuba and Katia in Mexico! Irma actually went SOUTH for a bit there, could be a wobble, but she ain't behaving properly. That airport weather station I was monitoring went offline about an hour again, so no ground data on current situation. Models are shifting west again, hugging the western coast of FL now.

From the NHC:
Apparently the ridge to the north of Irma has been stronger than expected, and the initial motion remains westward, or 280/11 kt. The track guidance continues to insist on Irma turning west-northwestward soon, moving along the Cuban Keys adjacent to the north coast of Cuba during the next 24 hours. After that time, Irma is expected to turn sharply north-northwestward and accelerate after 48 hours, moving parallel to the West Coast of Florida and then into Georgia. Mainly because irma's eye has not deviated from its westward motion, the new NHC forecast track has again shifted slightly westward. Because of the hurricane's angle of approach to the West Coast of Florida, it is extremely difficult to pinpoint exactly where the center might move onshore.

Future forecast positions are Cudjoe Key and Fort Myers.


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Fri Sep 08 2017 11:18 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

The convection on the northwest side of Irma towards south Florida has really fired up tonight, usually a sign the ridge may be eroding, expect Irma to slow more and start the turn in the morning or so, it's going to be a nail biter to exactly where it makes landfall, but the surge, check the Inundation map (hasn't quite updated for 11 yet) to check if you are in it or not.

Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Fri Sep 08 2017 11:28 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

I don't think that those mountains in Cuba are strong enough to keep this from coming our way. I just listened to Dr. Knabb and he's saying the same thing. Don't count on Cuba to keep us out of danger. That being said --- if you're not out of the Keys by now..what were you waiting for? SMH.

StormHound
(Weather Guru)
Fri Sep 08 2017 11:33 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Might be a wobble, or it might be the beginning of the turn happening now (to my decidedly non-expert eye).

MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Fri Sep 08 2017 11:56 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Models are getting less important, but the turn and when it happens is still vital for impact

0Z GFS, turns midday tomorrow, then landfall late Sunday morning just west of Marathon, Cat 5.
Mainland landfall in the late afternoon, cat 5, near Everglades City passes over winter haven, cat 3/4, heads north near Interlachen Cat 3/2. moves nw cat 2 west of Jacksonville, weakening into cat 1 into Georgia up toward Athens, Ga.

This is a shift east for the GFS.

0z UKMET has landfall just west of Marathon also (Over 7 mile bridge) then landfall near Ft. Myers Beach. very slight nudge east of last run.



Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Sat Sep 09 2017 12:11 AM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Quote:

Might be a wobble, or it might be the beginning of the turn happening now (to my decidedly non-expert eye).


Trust me, I have no expert eye, either. Could be a wobble..my eyes are just tired. I'm just ready for it to be over. Just got an alert on my phone that we are now under a hurricane warning from the NWS. I live in Polk County. Not that I haven't been following it...it's just disconcerting. Now looking at it...it looks like it was a little bit of a wobble.

ftlaudbob
(Storm Chaser)
Sat Sep 09 2017 12:28 AM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Quote:

Models are getting less important, but the turn and when it happens is still vital for impact

0Z GFS, turns midday tomorrow, then landfall late Sunday morning just west of Marathon, Cat 5.
Mainland landfall in the late afternoon, cat 5, near Everglades City passes over winter haven, cat 3/4, heads north near Interlachen Cat 3/2. moves nw cat 2 west of Jacksonville, weakening into cat 1 into Georgia up toward Athens, Ga.

This is a shift east for the GFS.





I was thinking the models would switch a little east.My money is splitting the state right in the middle of South Florida.


Londovir
(Weather Guru)
Sat Sep 09 2017 12:53 AM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

As we all watch nervously to see where Irma is ultimately going, I thought I'd put out there that for all the grief that the NHC sometimes takes for their forecasts, this advisory from Monday the 4th was pretty darned good when you look at where Irma is at right now and where she's been:



scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Sat Sep 09 2017 01:06 AM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Amazing to the degree.. 99% accurate 5 days out

OrlandoDan
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Sep 09 2017 02:05 AM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Looks like the 00Z run of the the ECMWF is becoming visualized right now.

dolfinatic
(Weather Guru)
Sat Sep 09 2017 02:20 AM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

if that track verifies, god help us all here on the west coast. Ultimate nightmare scenario staring us down.

OrlandoDan
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Sep 09 2017 02:28 AM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Also looks like the close interaction with Cuba is having a weakening effect, at least in the short term. Irma has yet to make the turn.

OrlandoDan
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Sep 09 2017 02:45 AM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge

Quote:

if that track verifies, god help us all here on the west coast. Ultimate nightmare scenario staring us down.




Looks like the ECMWF has shifted west again.


cieldumort
(Moderator)
Sat Sep 09 2017 03:42 AM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Latest ECMWF (model has outperformed others with Irma) strongly suggests that the cyclone will ride along or just inland of the Cuban coastline for at least another 18 hours or so, and on this track Irma would have some significant and ongoing land interaction. The center would be traveling across lowlands at least off and on - possibly continuously -- and the broader circulation wound likely have at least some disruption from hills. But even on this track, the model shows only modest weakening.

The most recent recon pass found that Irma's pressure has already gone up several millibars, likely as a result of this continued westward track - into portions of Cuba. Given the degradation on satellite, along with the weakening noted in the last recon pass, it is possible that the Euro is understating the amount of weakening that will occur. However, keep in mind that once Irma gets mostly to all back out over water, restrengthening will probably commence, regardless.







OrlandoDan
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Sep 09 2017 04:04 AM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

We just had a strange and very quick burst of wind here in Northwest Orlando with showers moving from the northeast to the southwest.

danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sat Sep 09 2017 04:22 AM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

I saw several sub 900mb pressure forecasts on one of the GFS model runs earlier. I was using tropicalatlantic.com

Steve H1
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Sep 09 2017 04:39 AM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

I believe she is making the NW turn as we speak. If so, this would her back over water. Need a few more hours to verify. Is this a zone in Cuba that the US still needs permission to traverse with RECON?

OrlandoDan
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Sep 09 2017 04:40 AM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

It is possible that Irma will experience significant weakening if it tracks with a large portion of the center over Cuba. However, the straits are a very warm section of the Atlantic when it makes the turn. Time and direction will tell.

ObsFromNWFL
(Registered User)
Sat Sep 09 2017 04:45 AM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Irma appears to be totally collapsing over Cuba on the satellite images.

OrlandoDan
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Sep 09 2017 04:49 AM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

I don't think that Irma is totally collapsing, but I am wondering how much of the weakening will be cited in the 0500 NHC update. It might be too late for the NHC to recognize it.

cieldumort
(Moderator)
Sat Sep 09 2017 04:49 AM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Quote:

Is this a zone in Cuba that the US still needs permission to traverse with RECON?




AF98-5307 is entering her center right now, passed right through strongest (NW) eyewall and found top winds of about 120 MPH with pressures up to perhaps low 940s... edit 937.. still flying in


OrlandoDan
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Sep 09 2017 04:58 AM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Is it generally true that weaker storms are not effected by troughs as much as stronger storms?

cieldumort
(Moderator)
Sat Sep 09 2017 05:05 AM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

5AM Advisory is out 155/930, but this looks like continuity created before the most recent recon. I'm not really seeing anything in the current pass to support winds above 120 MPH or pressures lower than 935... but, the center is mostly, albeit barely, over 'water.'
Quote:

5:00 AM EDT Sat Sep 9
Location: 22.5°N 78.8°W
Moving: WNW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 930 mb
Max sustained: 155 mph




cieldumort
(Moderator)
Sat Sep 09 2017 05:11 AM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

A few key items of note per this most recent Vort -
Quote:


A. Time of Center Fix: 9th day of the month at 8:38:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 22°29'N 78°47'W (22.4833N 78.7833W)
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 104kts (~ 119.7mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 14 nautical miles (16 statute miles) to the NNW (337°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 69° at 112kts (From the ENE at ~ 128.9mph)
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 935mb (27.61 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 11°C (52°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,046m (9,993ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,043m (9,984ft)
L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 14 nautical miles (16 statute miles)





Highlights: Eye is still closed, 935mb, still very warm core, max surface wind per SFMR 119.7 MPH, center 22.48N 78.78W


Prospero
(Weather Guru)
Sat Sep 09 2017 05:53 AM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

41 mph gust on Key West at 5:40 am. Alligator Reef Light had a 58 mph gust.

Marknole
(Weather Watcher)
Sat Sep 09 2017 05:55 AM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

"48H 11/0600Z 27.7N 82.4W 105 KT 120 MPH...INLAND"

Maybe, but those coordinates are right at NWS Tampa Bay in Ruskin. Hope the wind shear takes it's toll, but more concerned about a continued west trend, all over water through Apalachee Bay.


JMII
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Sep 09 2017 06:29 AM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Quote:

5AM Advisory is out 155/930, but this looks like continuity created before the most recent recon. I'm not really seeing anything in the current pass to support winds above 120 MPH or pressures lower than 935




Are they afraid people will let their guard down?

We are returning home to Margate, seems like a safe call, winds could be way worst here in Sebring give current track and model guidance.

Traffic on 75 across the Alley looks normal, guess people in Naples aren't running and sheltering in place.


Ronn
(User)
Sat Sep 09 2017 06:42 AM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

This is definitely looking like one of those rare tracks that will take Irma parallel to the FL west coast, at or just inland. Cuba is taking a toll on Irma's top winds, but the overall circulation still looks good. We can only hope that Irma doesn't re-ignite once over the Florida Straits and SE Gulf. Many of the models, unfortunately, call for re-intensification and there is nothing that should prohibit this in the next 24 hours. I doubt Irma will regain Cat 5 strength, but all bets are off in the warm waters of the SE Gulf. The upper level winds are fairly hostile over the northern Gulf and maybe they will infringe on Irma sooner rather than later. We'll see.

I think the Euro has performed exceptionally well with this system compared to other models (GFS, HWRF) which have consistently been too far north and east. Even the Navgem has done better than those models, though its bias has been too far west. It's looking like a coastal runner up the west coast, unfortunately. My thinking right now is that Irma will weaken to high Cat 2-low Cat3 in the next 12 hours, followed by re-intensification to mid-upper Cat 3 along FL's west coast. The broad circulation may make it more difficult to spin up at the last moment ala Charley. At least that's what I am hoping.


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Sat Sep 09 2017 06:59 AM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

0z Euro shows Irma going fairly well inland into Cuba (more than it actually is, apparently,, watching it closely though) Does not turn it significantly to the north until around midnight. Landfall over Key West mid morning tomorrow Cat 4, Landfall near Port Charlotte/Venice tomorrow night, Cat 4. Over Tampa, Cat 3, then just inland along the west coast passing into Georgia east of Tallahassee. A shift west, but waiting for confirmation of the short term path.


6Z GFS moves Irma a bit more into Cuba, then start the turn north late tonight, Cat 4 landfall west of Marathon Key around noon tomorrow (slower), landfall just east of Naples Cat 4, Near Wauchula Monday morning cat 3 moving toward Gainesville, and into Georgia by Monday evening. More or less just a slight west jog, but very similar to the earlier run.


B.C.Francis
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Sep 09 2017 07:40 AM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

I certainly agree with you about the Euro. It has been doing a good job all season and the NHC has been almost spot on. With Irma skating a little inland on the Cuban coast, could this possibly take the wind out so to speak in some of the storms sails. Not sure on the lay out of the land area it will be clipping

OrlandoDan
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Sep 09 2017 08:12 AM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Cuba certainly is having its effects to Irma. I also still see good symetric outflow on the western half of Irma. Not that usual "wall" associated with a cane making a turn to the north. It is possible that the models will shift west again.

scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Sat Sep 09 2017 08:38 AM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Until the turn happens.. they might slightly.. I think the 12Z might be the last of the west trend in the models (thru landfall) cause the turn should slow start later this evening.

IsoFlame
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Sep 09 2017 09:05 AM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Thank goodness the southern eyewall tangled with the north coast of Cuba this am. Looking a bit better for Port Charlotte/Tampa, still bad for Key West/Everglades City up to Naples. I think the "turn" may end up being sharper than the current forecast when Irma finally pulls away from Cuba given weaker hurricane.

OrlandoDan
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Sep 09 2017 10:11 AM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

I thought weaker storms are less responsive to troughs. No?

chance
(Verified CFHC User)
Sat Sep 09 2017 10:30 AM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Quote:

I thought weaker storms are less responsive to troughs. No?





Weaker storms like a TS or low end cat 1 but we are talking about still a 2 most likely a 3 and maybe a low 4 but this is not going to be weak enough for that to happen.


scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Sat Sep 09 2017 11:01 AM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Everything is responsive to troughs.. from a TD to a Cat 5... some people say Cat5 can maybe create it's own steering but that's false.. it can help build up the ridge around it and cause a trough on it's back tail side but it can't just go through a trough..Fronts/troughs are like barriers.

JMII
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Sep 09 2017 11:08 AM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Another west shift. Extreme S FL about to become cone free.
Keys under the gun, followed by the west coast. Very Charley-like except no NE turn this time.


Bschucher
(Registered User)
Sat Sep 09 2017 11:19 AM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Any reason to expect ANY sort of easterly return going forward?

scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Sat Sep 09 2017 11:32 AM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

No.. the main question becomes slowly.. does this thing go of even Clearwater and most of the hurricane force winds just in the keys and along the immediate coast? right now.. no.. it looks on target for a Ft Myers-Naples landfall. 12Z runs of the GFS and Euro-Ukmet will give us the landfall (within 1 dg) in 24-30hrs

chance
(Verified CFHC User)
Sat Sep 09 2017 11:43 AM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Quote:

No.. the main question becomes slowly.. does this thing stay we of even Clearwater and most of the hurricane force winds just in the keys and along the immediate coast? right now.. no.. it looks on target for a Ft Myers-Naples landfall. 12Z runs of the GFS and Euro-Ukmet will give us the landfall (within 1 dg) in 24-30hrs




The GFS is out the 12z and is a little more east by a hair then last run. I guess it is showing the Naples landfall


scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Sat Sep 09 2017 11:44 AM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

I think it's a little west if anything and 6hours faster this run

chance
(Verified CFHC User)
Sat Sep 09 2017 11:51 AM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Quote:

I think it's a little west if anything and 6hours faster this run




Nah it is more north but you can click previous run at 30 and 36 hours and the current 12z and see the only difference is a little more north but not any west. Just hit current 30 36 then hit previous 30 36


erc024
(Registered User)
Sat Sep 09 2017 11:56 AM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Looking at recent radar, appears to have taken a turn to the NW. Could be just a wobble or perhaps it's starting to turn ... current radar

cieldumort
(Moderator)
Sat Sep 09 2017 12:22 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Model performance history for Irma. ECMWF has performed best. The upgraded GFS (AVNO), not so much.

OFCL is the OFFICIAL forecast track (NHC), and not a model.
TVCN is a Variable Consensus of other models



Image credit: UAlbany h/t Michael Ventrice @MJVentrice


JMII
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Sep 09 2017 12:24 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Appears that way, most NW motion we've seen in a long time. Finally pulling of the coast of Cuba but still riding the barrier islands.

MissBecky
(Weather Guru)
Sat Sep 09 2017 12:41 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Mandatory evacuations now for Zone B in Lee County. If you are in this zone, you need to leave NOW.

M.A.
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Sep 09 2017 01:17 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

In my opinion the NHC has preformed superbly. I have to say they have been pretty spot on with the forecast tracks and intensity. There have been many times during this that we have heard questions about the tracks they have posted. This all goes back to the quality of the computer models and the Mets interpreting them at the NHC.. Kudos

MichaelA
(Weather Analyst)
Sat Sep 09 2017 01:25 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

The 12z GFS and CMC have come into agreement. The GFS has not changed appreciably since 00z. Tomorrow night will be quite bumpy for us on the west coast of Florida.

chance
(Verified CFHC User)
Sat Sep 09 2017 01:31 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Quote:

The 12z GFS and CMC have come into agreement. The GFS has not changed appreciably since 00z. Tomorrow night will be quite bumpy for us on the west coast of Florida.




I live south of you in Sarasota going to go stay with my daughter who is not in any zone for flooding down the road. I just wonder how much damage this storm will make?

Yes we have had close calls before but this one i see no way out of. Bordered up as much as i could now it is wait and see mode.


Corkhill1
(Registered User)
Sat Sep 09 2017 02:05 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Eye wall now showing on this site Florida Radar http://flhurricane.com/flradar.php
It will be Interesting to see the turn as it relates to the NHC track. Be Safe


PA101
(Registered User)
Sat Sep 09 2017 02:07 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Most of the eye now visible on Key West WSR-88D.

JMII
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Sep 09 2017 02:20 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Now that we got her on Key West radar the track is very easy to verify: https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/current-weather-conditions

Seems to be an eye's width N of the forecast line.


enterlaughing
(Registered User)
Sat Sep 09 2017 03:46 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

As all of this is coming much closer now to reality, I want to thank all of you on this site for being here, taking your time to post and for sharing your considerable knowledge and expertise. I know many of you are in harms way - stay safe!!

JonBoy418
(Registered User)
Sat Sep 09 2017 04:09 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Thank you all for your work and interpretations on the models. I've been following intently for the past few days and this forum has been a voice of reason in the vast misinformation being circulated around online.

I had a quick question that someone may be able to help. I've been logging coordinates of the storm for the past few days, waiting to see the change in direction to the North. In my logs, I notice how the storm has been heading "West" for the past 24 hours. However, the lines of Latitude has changed from 22.0N to 23.1 N in the same span. The most egregious was between the 8AM to 11AM advisory this morning. It went from 22.6N / 79.6W to 22.8N / 79.8W. A change of .2 degrees north and west. Wouldn't that indicate a NW movement? The NHC showed a West direction, but I'm not sure why.

Obviously I still trust the NHC over my basic geometry knowledge, but I was wondering if there was an explanation. Thanks again for everyone's help.


Bev
(Weather Guru)
Sat Sep 09 2017 04:15 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

The NHC uses the general overall movement of the storm rather than just the eye with each update because the eye often wobbles due to eyewall replacement cycles.

scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Sat Sep 09 2017 05:18 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

From the NHC Discussion: Radar data indicate that Irma is moving toward the west-northwest
at about 8 kt. The turn toward the northwest and north-northwest is
about to begin since the hurricane is already at the western edge of
the subtropical ridge:


They said same thing earlier at 11am and 5am really... this storm is already almost 81W... if it doesn't turn NW in the next 3hrs and NNW by midnight.. this will pass west of Clearwater-St Pete.. how far depends each hour it keeps going wnw-nw


chase 22
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Sep 09 2017 05:47 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Quote:

From the NHC Discussion: Radar data indicate that Irma is moving toward the west-northwest
at about 8 kt. The turn toward the northwest and north-northwest is
about to begin since the hurricane is already at the western edge of
the subtropical ridge:


They said same thing earlier at 11am and 5am really... this storm is already almost 81W... if it doesn't turn NW in the next 3hrs and NNW by midnight.. this will pass west of Clearwater-St Pete.. how far depends each hour it keeps going wnw-nw




I do think that the poleward turn has started. The decrease in forward motion is enough evidence for me. Not to mention the edge of the ridge that she's sitting on.

Let's pray that it doesn't just ride off the coast of St. Pete. That would be so bad for so many reasons and would make a devastating storm absolutely catastrophic.


cieldumort
(Moderator)
Sat Sep 09 2017 05:54 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Quote:

I notice how the storm has been heading "West" for the past 24 hours. However, the lines of Latitude has changed from 22.0N to 23.1 N in the same span. The most egregious was between the 8AM to 11AM advisory this morning. It went from 22.6N / 79.6W to 22.8N / 79.8W. A change of .2 degrees north and west. Wouldn't that indicate a NW movement? The NHC showed a West direction, but I'm not sure why.





NHC does in fact track the eye, but there is consideration given to wobbles and other transitory or short-lived changes, and tends prefer smoothing movement into six hour averages - also what is kept in best track. .

If a NW trend covering 3 hours was to continue as NW when smoothed out over six hours, the verbiage would probably reflect that.


The 24 hour track of Irma from 11AM AST Friday to 11AM AST Saturday (today) per NHC was

08/1500Z 22.0N 75.3W
09/1500Z 22.8N 79.8W

That movement is 0.8 to the N and 4.5 to the W (or generally 'west')


Ronn
(User)
Sat Sep 09 2017 06:14 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

I am also concerned that Irma will ultimately end up slightly west of the official forecast. The WNW motion has definitely commenced, but it is more west than it is northwest. The last few radar frames even show a westward wobble, which means little for the overall forecast picture, but could make a big difference in the exact point of landfall on Florida's oblique coastline. Any prolonged westward movement will likely cause Irma to come ashore farther up the west coast. The next run of the Euro will be interesting.

AgentB
(Weather Guru)
Sat Sep 09 2017 06:21 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Yep, the motion does still seem to be slightly more west than north. From 11AM to 6PM it moved .8N and 1.1W. That's a more northward movement than the previous 12 hours, but I noticed in the special 6PM update that it hadn't moved north at all and .2W. Probably just a wobble, but we'll see if that continues.

According to the 5pm update, the storm should be centered at 24.1N 81.3W at 5am Sunday. It'll be interesting to see how close it comes to that point.


Prospero
(Weather Guru)
Sat Sep 09 2017 07:06 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Gulfport, Florida:
OK, reality setting in. The "Tampa Bay" storm that threatens almost every year and always teases and does very little, may very well be focused on us this year. And this is not "just some typical" hurricane.

Irma...

Certainly one of the record storms of the Atlantic, and also I am sure a record for media attention. Harvey is a hard act to follow, but Irma has earned the respect she deserves.

Irma...

24 hours from now Tampa Bay will likely be dealing with the storm we've dodged for so long. Granted, Sarasota, Ft. Myers, or other cities further south may take the brunt. But for we who live in the Tampa Bay area, this may be the storm of the century.

Honestly, we can "feel" it in the air already.


scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Sat Sep 09 2017 07:12 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Irma wobbles WSW over the past hour...not a typo

Steve C
(Verified CFHC User)
Sat Sep 09 2017 07:18 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Quote:

Let's pray that it doesn't just ride off the coast of St. Pete. That would be so bad for so many reasons and would make a devastating storm absolutely catastrophic.




We have extended family that have retired to Fort Myers. Their plan was to evacuate to a shelter, Island Coast High School. But it is full. Now they are staying at home. Not sure of their elevation or construction. "But if something else shows up, we are ready to go if we have time." I'm really worried time has run out.


danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sat Sep 09 2017 07:19 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Quote:

Irma wobbles WSW over the past hour...not a typo




Yes I saw that too. Definitely a WSW jog or wobble.

For the others. NHC Advisory storm headings are averaged over a 6-12 hour period. They've done this for years.

Hence, Charley taking a hard right turn into Punta Gorda,FL and the Average heading had Charley aimed at Tampa.

Watch the Birdie!


JMII
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Sep 09 2017 07:35 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Quote:

I am also concerned that Irma will ultimately end up slightly west of the official forecast.




She refuses to turn for some reason and appears to be off track by an eye's width again. Just jogged a tiny bit N, (undoing that WSW wobble) but I'd call the overall current motion W. Did any of the models pick up on this? I know there was always one or two with a wide west track but normally we dismiss those odd balls.


Corkhill1
(Registered User)
Sat Sep 09 2017 07:40 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Hoping the UKM comes in and gives it a push to the west and the NHC does too. Be Safe

cieldumort
(Moderator)
Sat Sep 09 2017 07:55 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Irma's track just offshore of northern Cuba has been remarkable. Many opportunities to head inland.. None taken!



JMII
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Sep 09 2017 08:03 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Quote:

Irma's track just offshore of northern Cuba has been remarkable. Many opportunities to head inland.. None taken!




Like a boat trying to avoid a sand bar!

8PM advisory 110 miles from Key West, completing EWRC now


StormHound
(Weather Guru)
Sat Sep 09 2017 09:30 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Quote:

Irma's track just offshore of northern Cuba has been remarkable. Many opportunities to head inland.. None taken!





Isn't that somewhat expected? There is an effect which basically keeps the hurricane offshore when it is skirting the shore like that. Essentially the path of least resistance, hurricanes don't like land. I've seen this before, maybe Charlie?


chance
(Verified CFHC User)
Sat Sep 09 2017 09:46 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

To me it looks like it is going almost due north. Does the last hour of radar not look like that to you?

scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Sat Sep 09 2017 09:49 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Nope... another wobble or slow movement WNW

JMII
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Sep 09 2017 10:10 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Presentation on GOES16 is impressive... http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso1-13-96-1-100 really getting her act together however become less circular and more N/S elongated. You can see the trough influence on the NW side well offshore.

scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Sat Sep 09 2017 10:22 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

That ridge is still digging in good trying to keep it more WNW @ 5mph

TheOtherRick
(Weather Watcher)
Sat Sep 09 2017 10:27 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Within the accuracy of the wobble background noise, seems it's going the same direction it's been going. Draw a line. Yeah, it's leaving Cuba, but Cuba is bending away from that direction.

cieldumort
(Moderator)
Sat Sep 09 2017 11:03 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Quote:

Isn't that somewhat expected? There is an effect which basically keeps the hurricane offshore when it is skirting the shore like that. Essentially the path of least resistance, hurricanes don't like land. I've seen this before, maybe Charlie?




Seems like that should be a myth, but then also a little intuitive, in that - if close enough to the coast, and steering currents aren't too strong, perhaps the center will keep leaping short distances into the area of deepest convection and lowest pressure that remains just offshore.

If anyone knows of solid peer-reviewed research on this (not of TCs jumping into deeper convection/lower pressure in general - that is well verified and explained - I'm talking of coastal 'runners,' only) I think some of us would love to read it


Lamar-Plant City
(Storm Tracker)
Sun Sep 10 2017 12:27 AM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Quote:

Within the accuracy of the wobble background noise, seems it's going the same direction it's been going. Draw a line. Yeah, it's leaving Cuba, but Cuba is bending away from that direction.




I am headed to bed but since you posted this it SURE looks like solid movement to the NW and dead-on toward Big Pine Key/Key West stretch. Hope all are out of there by now!!!


scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Sun Sep 10 2017 12:48 AM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

I think "Finally" the NNW movement has begun over the past hour..

drummingcraig
(Registered User)
Sun Sep 10 2017 02:05 AM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Back up to Cat 4 as of 2am update. Up here in Jacksonville the winds are picking up and we are getting some pretty heavy rain starting to come in here & there. Can't imagine being down South in this mess.

JMII
(Storm Tracker)
Sun Sep 10 2017 05:57 AM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Tracking just E of predicted now, looks to come in at Big Pine Key or just a bit south of there. Front side of the eye really strong, back side a touch weaker or maybe the radar just can't see thru clearly. 5AM update has it hugging the coast then turning more NW once past St Pete, heading towards the Big Bend region.

pincty
(Weather Watcher)
Sun Sep 10 2017 07:01 AM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Looks like it will be east of Key West and west of Marathon. With it's present movement I don't see it skirting the coast all the way to Tampa. After the Keys, it may make landfall in Naples.

B.C.Francis
(Storm Tracker)
Sun Sep 10 2017 07:16 AM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Interesting that the Euro has the track moving more inland than the NHC track. With the Euro handling storms pretty much spot on, and NHC doing well, I think we`re in for a very interesting Sunday here in Florida. I worry for the people that stayed down there and those in Naples not to mention the whole SW coast line.

OrlandoDan
(Storm Tracker)
Sun Sep 10 2017 07:21 AM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Looks like Irma is heading more NNW than NW, at least in the short term.

JMII
(Storm Tracker)
Sun Sep 10 2017 07:24 AM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Big Pine Key looks like its taking the worst of it, radar estimated 130 mph winds. 13 miles to landfall. Eyewall looking a bit ragged, dry pocket to the south.

doug
(Weather Analyst)
Sun Sep 10 2017 09:15 AM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Dare that I say this, but as time is passing by I am beginning to suspect that Irma may be susceptible to a "Charley affect". What is that? I noticed here in Parrish that the heavier squals migrate from east to west, but as they approach the westcoast they dry up...we are now getting some light rain, but Polk County has had heavy weather, including tornado activity, that disapated to mist here in central Manatee County. I have watched the WV loop and what I see is very dry air diving down from the NW toward the storm and moisture is evaporating along the western side. This is what occurred with Charlie. I am hopeful that this trough now in the central GOM will push Irma to the NE.
Could be wishing an outcome. But this affect seems to be influencing the progress of this system.


Londovir
(Weather Guru)
Sun Sep 10 2017 09:51 AM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Obviously this close to land every wobble is meaningful, but watching the radar on the Southwest Florida Water Management District site this sucker is looking like it's traveling nearly due north right now, if not with a tiny wobble to the east. It looks to my novice and nervous mind that it's definitely to the right of the NHC track, at least.

It would be beyond ridiculous if this system pulled a Charley and headed toward the right, making the turn the models had said for so long, but not when they expected.

Going to be a long, long day/night.


B.C.Francis
(Storm Tracker)
Sun Sep 10 2017 09:52 AM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Correct me if I`m wrong, but as Irma moved over the keys, did I see a slight movement more to the N than NW ?

StormHound
(Weather Guru)
Sun Sep 10 2017 09:59 AM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Quote:

Obviously this close to land every wobble is meaningful, but watching the radar on the Southwest Florida Water Management District site this sucker is looking like it's traveling nearly due north right now, if not with a tiny wobble to the east. It looks to my novice and nervous mind that it's definitely to the right of the NHC track, at least.

It would be beyond ridiculous if this system pulled a Charley and headed toward the right, making the turn the models had said for so long, but not when they expected.

Going to be a long, long day/night.




Pulling up the Satellite floater and turning on the forecast points, Irma looks significantly east of the forecast track. So much so that I wonder why TWC is not talking about it. Someone convince me the center Irma doesn't appear headed to Naples or east of Napes.


StormHound
(Weather Guru)
Sun Sep 10 2017 10:05 AM
Attachment
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Lastest snip of satellite and forecast points.

pincty
(Weather Watcher)
Sun Sep 10 2017 10:16 AM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

I totally agree with you. I remember when Charlie was moving up the Gulf years ago, Mike Clay of Bay News 9 spotted an eastern wobble and said that if may be nothing but if the next move goes the same way, then Charlie may be heading to landfall south of T.B. If it is known that Irma went slightly east of Key West and the hourly updates show a mostly northern motion (5 a.m. - 24.1, 81.5, 10 a.m. - 24.8, 81.5), at least a local met here in Tampa can state that the storm is tracking east of the model but caution people to not let their guard down. For caution's sake, I do understand it though.

StormHound
(Weather Guru)
Sun Sep 10 2017 10:19 AM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

I'm not an expert. But this is more than a wobble at this point. Irma is significantly east of track and no one is talking about it. It's like these weather people on the news have no training whatsoever.

JMII
(Storm Tracker)
Sun Sep 10 2017 10:22 AM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Yep she is east of the forecast line, off by maybe 20 miles? but tracking kind of parallel to it so far.

edit - moving faster and almost due NORTH? Looks to hit Naples.


Londovir
(Weather Guru)
Sun Sep 10 2017 10:27 AM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Probably going about 350 (NNW?) I'd say in the last handful of hours. I'm curious how the track will adjust (if any) at the next track update.

MissBecky
(Weather Guru)
Sun Sep 10 2017 10:30 AM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Quote:

I'm not an expert. But this is more than a wobble at this point. Irma is significantly east of track and no one is talking about it. It's like these weather people on the news have no training whatsoever.




They are discussing it on NBC/ABC in Ft. Myers. It's very evident on satellite and radar.


StormHound
(Weather Guru)
Sun Sep 10 2017 10:32 AM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Quote:

Yep she is east of the forecast line, off by maybe 20 miles? but tracking kind of parallel to it so far.




According to my eyes, it isn't really parallel. She was on track four or five hours ago, now quite a bit east. Seems to be heading due north.


OrlandoDan
(Storm Tracker)
Sun Sep 10 2017 10:39 AM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Wobble, wobble, wobble. Like a top spinning down. But it looks east of track to me.

doug
(Weather Analyst)
Sun Sep 10 2017 10:53 AM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

The motion has been virtually to the North since at least 7:15 a.m. The over all shape of the system is elongated north-south. The west side has been affected by the dry air moving over the GOM, and it is affecting its structure, IMO.. Sky here has lifted and brightened considerably in the last hour and on the satellite that is revealed by white in the north west quadrant..barometers here have been steady for a while now at about 29.66

Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Sun Sep 10 2017 11:01 AM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Quote:

Correct me if I`m wrong, but as Irma moved over the keys, did I see a slight movement more to the N than NW ?


I am seeing the same thing.

sara33
(Weather Guru)
Sun Sep 10 2017 11:08 AM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Quote:

The motion has been virtually to the North since at least 7:15 a.m. The over all shape of the system is elongated north-south. The west side has been affected by the dry air moving over the GOM, and it is affecting its structure, IMO.. Sky here has lifted and brightened considerably in the last hour and on the satellite that is revealed by white in the north west quadrant..barometers here have been steady for a while now at about 29.66




I see the same thing, curious to see if that dry air will continue to shread the west side.. I am a little rusty it's been awhile since I have been on here, but looks to me like a landfall further South..


MissBecky
(Weather Guru)
Sun Sep 10 2017 11:08 AM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Local mets calling for Collier County landfall now.

JMII
(Storm Tracker)
Sun Sep 10 2017 11:14 AM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Quote:

Correct me if I`m wrong, but as Irma moved over the keys, did I see a slight movement more to the N than NW ?




She went due north for 2 hours, now could be working or wobbling her way NNW. Naples landfall very possible on this track. While that would be bad for them (of course) it would be good for FL overall as the NE eyewall would come ashore in a very sparsely populated area vs a Charely situation with landfall near Sanibel, Punta Gorda or worst Sarasota or terrible if Tampa.


Marknole
(Weather Watcher)
Sun Sep 10 2017 11:32 AM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Marco Island is longitude 81.7. Irma is currently 81.5. So yes, Collier (big!) County landfall looks likely, hopefully east of Naples - more sparsely populated. But what's with Marco Island's bad luck? Wasn't that landfall for Wilma??

Corkhill1
(Registered User)
Sun Sep 10 2017 11:33 AM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

This 11am NHC movement of the forecast line a little east should notch up the Orlando winds

OrlandoDan
(Storm Tracker)
Sun Sep 10 2017 11:36 AM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Last couple frames of radar look like a NW motion.

chase 22
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sun Sep 10 2017 11:53 AM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Quote:

The motion has been virtually to the North since at least 7:15 a.m. The over all shape of the system is elongated north-south. The west side has been affected by the dry air moving over the GOM, and it is affecting its structure, IMO.. Sky here has lifted and brightened considerably in the last hour and on the satellite that is revealed by white in the north west quadrant..barometers here have been steady for a while now at about 29.66




I do think you are are having a bout of wishful thinking. While there is dry air to her West, It doesn't look to be doing much to her overall structure other than elongating it. It's certainly not infiltrating the core...at least not that I can see on any wv imagery. The sky has lifted and brightened because you all are in between rain bands and not quite yet under the cdo. At least that's how I see it on visible.

Also, Charley was supposed to turn to the NE. It just did it before the NHC thought it was going to. Irma is forecasted to turn NW. Turning to the NE would mean that the NHC's forecast (and all of the models) are completely wrong. Besides, I don't see how she can go any further East than she already has because of the Atlantic ridge.


doug
(Weather Analyst)
Sun Sep 10 2017 12:01 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Perhaps it is wishful thinking, but I would not have put that out there if the actual observable data did not support my opinion. The structure of Irma has been hampered significantly by the dry air infiltrating from the NW. The Charley affect I mention was the drying up of the northwest and westerly portions of the storm which left only a core and shunted it to the NE much earlier than expected. I live only about 20 miles west from where Charley caused considerable damage but we got virtually no dangerous weather as it flew past. Today is very similar to that here...the rain seems to be evaporating into small amounts or a mist....still getting gusty winds but far less rain than expected or advertised. Certainly that is a reason to be optimistic...

Kraig
(Weather Watcher)
Sun Sep 10 2017 12:03 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Quote:

Last couple frames of radar look like a NW motion.




SUMMARY OF 1200 PM EDT...1600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.2N 81.6W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SSE OF NAPLES FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...933 MB...27.55 INCHES

Still the 350 degrees that was reported at 11am...


chase 22
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sun Sep 10 2017 12:17 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Quote:

Perhaps it is wishful thinking, but I would not have put that out there if the actual observable data did not support my opinion. The structure of Irma has been hampered significantly by the dry air infiltrating from the NW. The Charley affect I mention was the drying up of the northwest and westerly portions of the storm which left only a core and shunted it to the NE much earlier than expected. I live only about 20 miles west from where Charley caused considerable damage but we got virtually no dangerous weather as it flew past. Today is very similar to that here...the rain seems to be evaporating into small amounts or a mist....still getting gusty winds but far less rain than expected or advertised. Certainly that is a reason to be optimistic...




Well, here's to hoping! My 11-year-old son lives in Parrish with his mother, so I hope you're right.


B.C.Francis
(Storm Tracker)
Sun Sep 10 2017 12:42 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

From the looks of the radar out Key West, our friends in Naples seem to be in the cross hairs. What about surge conditions for that area and high tide times. Must be getting pretty critical down there.

ljmax
(Registered User)
Sun Sep 10 2017 12:56 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Bands are starting to come through the Ocala area now. Winds are below TS strength but that will change over the next few hours. Stay safe everyone.

Corkhill1
(Registered User)
Sun Sep 10 2017 01:03 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

UKM 1200Z moved back to West closer to NHC forecast line, now getting more consensus. Be Safe.

JMII
(Storm Tracker)
Sun Sep 10 2017 01:05 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Quote:

Perhaps it is wishful thinking, but I would not have put that out there if the actual observable data did not support my opinion.




So true. I think the NHC needs a better way to explain the wind field to people. I've got friends/relatives from out of town that thing we are in a 155 mph monster, another Andrew. The wind here is blowing 40 max. I assume we will see some 60 to 80 gusts at some point, but I am 110 miles away from the eye. Key Largo has 60 mph winds now and they are only 60 miles away. The TS force winds extend really far, but the hurricane force winds do not. And the areas that are getting hurricane force are not experiencing anything near Cat 4 levels. Dig up my old posts, I complain about this during every storm with estimated winds, flight level winds, max winds., etc. Like temperature we need a "feels like" hurricane value. Sorry for the rant but this kind of stuff makes people think storms are "weak" and thus do not prepare next time.

However I must say this is feeling like David, its been going on for HOURS. The wind has been relentless since 10PM last night and I'd say we are only 40% done.


JMII
(Storm Tracker)
Sun Sep 10 2017 01:42 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Starting to look like a Naples landfall, 46 miles south and motion appears NNW, might be a glancing blow.

Jeff's periscope feed is up, he is live from Naples, seeing some light damage already.


Kigeliakitten
(Registered User)
Sun Sep 10 2017 02:11 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

What is the name of Jeff's Periscope feed? Never mind, it was right there when I opened Periscope.

cieldumort
(Moderator)
Sun Sep 10 2017 02:21 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Irma is being looped around (and eventually to within) the mid/upper-level vort diving down from the northwest. Center fixes show Irma to be bending back to the left a little as she gains latitude, and it is possible that she skirts western Florida with several landfalls.


It is growing apparent that the very gradual transition into a sub-tropical and eventually post-tropical cyclone is now underway, with dry air infiltrating Irma from the west, reducing not only precip (as can be seen on radar - not shown here), but the intensity of her winds in the western semicircle - perhaps by as much as a full category in addition to the half to full category that is already commonly reduced on that side of a TC (See recon data below - courtesy Tropical Tidbits).

The earliest beginnings of extra-tropical transition (going to take days to complete), along with how that mid-upper low is pinwheeling Irma around to the NNW-NW, is made clear in the water vapor image below





Image Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Irma is now a Cat III on the Saffir-Simpson wind scale. The Saffir-Simpson is not a measure of a hurricane's overall capacity to do damage. Remember, Katrina was a Cat III when she made her historic landfall near Buras-Triumph, Louisiana, and Ike was 'only' a Cat II when he made landfall over Galveston, Texas, yet these two TCs were some of the most destructive in history.


OrlandoDan
(Storm Tracker)
Sun Sep 10 2017 03:09 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Just had a decent band come through Orlando. A good downpour. Not much wind.

OrlandoDan
(Storm Tracker)
Sun Sep 10 2017 03:22 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Water vapor satellite is really showing how the dry air is disruptive.

Hammhound
(Registered User)
Sun Sep 10 2017 03:39 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Looks to be tracking a bit east of the forecast again.

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/current-weather-conditions


JMII
(Storm Tracker)
Sun Sep 10 2017 05:00 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

East of forecast line, tracking along the coast, becoming very disrupted and elongated N/S. There is almost no rain south of the eye for like 50 miles, wonder if the inner eye is falling apart and will be replaced because there is some banding still visible.

Corkhill1
(Registered User)
Sun Sep 10 2017 05:18 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

NHC says at 5pm: "Although weakening is forecast, Irma is expected to remain
a hurricane at least through Monday morning.
"Weakening sounds good to me."


chase 22
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sun Sep 10 2017 05:32 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

The dry air is definitely infiltrating the core now. You can see it wrapping around the South and West sides. Winds down to 110mph. Folks aren't in the clear yet though. Naples had a 142mph wind gust not too long ago, and major damage is being recorded there. Marco Island had 130mph wind gust with damage being reported as well. And keep in mind, the West coast has not even had the surge event start yet.

Flaguy2441
(Registered User)
Sun Sep 10 2017 05:34 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

NHC also needs to adjust the track based on current movement ( due NORTH ). Unless it starts a NW movement now, it will be far more inland that NHC is projecting.

WestFLJess
(Registered User)
Sun Sep 10 2017 05:51 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Quote:

NHC also needs to adjust the track based on current movement ( due NORTH ). Unless it starts a NW movement now, it will be far more inland that NHC is projecting.




Why do they need to adjust their track? Is the 5pm track not correct?


chase 22
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sun Sep 10 2017 05:54 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Quote:

NHC also needs to adjust the track based on current movement ( due NORTH ). Unless it starts a NW movement now, it will be far more inland that NHC is projecting.




In the last radar frame, it looks to be turning back NW. Remember to look for trends, not wobbles.

Also, EYW radar is down.


JMII
(Storm Tracker)
Sun Sep 10 2017 06:39 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Quote:

Why do they need to adjust their track? Is the 5pm track not correct?




Irma is east of the 5PM track already and moving N. So as mentioned unless she starts to turn NW this track will not verify and put her much further inland.

Power just failed in Sebring where I was yesterday, so it seems I made the right call to come home. Still have a long night of gusty winds to deal with however.


Kraig
(Weather Watcher)
Sun Sep 10 2017 06:52 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Quote:

Quote:

NHC also needs to adjust the track based on current movement ( due NORTH ). Unless it starts a NW movement now, it will be far more inland that NHC is projecting.




Why do they need to adjust their track? Is the 5pm track not correct?




The 5pm track is not correct as Irma has been going 350 degrees (just west of North) since 11am. The forecast track is at NNW or about 335 degrees. At this point the track has the core going over Tampa but over the last 8 hours the consistent track will now take Irma further inland and more closely over Lakeland than Tampa.


OrlandoDan
(Storm Tracker)
Sun Sep 10 2017 06:57 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Seminole county has been under a few different tornado warnings over the last hour. We had a decent gust here about 20 minutes ago. We are under a curfew from 7 to 7.

Marknole
(Weather Watcher)
Sun Sep 10 2017 07:01 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

I want to be optimistic. Given the more inland track, impressive and damaging SW shear, and dry air, now wrapping around to the front right quadrant, couldn't we assume more than "slow weakening"? It looks to be taking on non-tropical characteristics..

PA101
(Registered User)
Sun Sep 10 2017 07:14 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Quote:

Remember to look for trends, not wobbles.




The 05:00 EDT official coordinates were 24.1N/81.5W. The 17:00 EDT coordinates were 26.2N/81.8W.

If my quick math is correct, that's a cumulative course of roughly 352 degrees, and a 12 hour sample is not a wobble.


chase 22
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sun Sep 10 2017 07:25 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Quote:


The 05:00 EDT official coordinates were 24.1N/81.5W. The 17:00 EDT coordinates were 26.2N/81.8W.

If my quick math is correct, that's a cumulative course of roughly 352 degrees, and a 12 hour sample is not a wobble.




No, it's not a wobble.


StormHound
(Weather Guru)
Sun Sep 10 2017 07:39 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Quote:


No, it's not a wobble.




Agreed. Almost due north, or due north.


chase 22
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sun Sep 10 2017 08:04 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

8pm NHC update has movement N @ 14, but they are still confident that she's going to hug the West coast with an increase in forward speed. If it does continue moving due North, it would bring the center well East of forecast running it up Auburndale/Winterhaven/Lake Wales area.

Very well could be that they are expecting her to ride the mid/upper level vort in the Gulf.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Irma was located
by NOAA Doppler radar near latitude 26.7 North, longitude 81.7 West.
Irma is moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h), and a
north-northwestward motion with an increase in forward speed is
expected by tonight, with that motion continuing through Monday.


Littlebit
(Weather Watcher)
Sun Sep 10 2017 08:08 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Can someone please explain what's increasing her forward speed? Thank you.

drummingcraig
(Registered User)
Sun Sep 10 2017 10:30 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Lots of local news meterologists across the state saying its coming almost due North up through the center, over Orlando and passing just West of Jacksonville. Will be interesting to see what the 11pm update brings from the NHC Track.

Susan T
(Registered User)
Sun Sep 10 2017 10:46 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

That makes sense to me. Just follow the money--I mean, the orange bands on the radar. We are buckling our seat-belts here on Amelia Island; it's gonna be a bumpy night. We have 50+mph gusts roaring right now, 35+ sustained winds, hard rain lashing and shaking the house, and worse is on the way. We still have power, but likely not for long--lights are flickering as I type.

I've been lurking here for a couple of days, and there sure are a lot of smart people on this board. Thanks to all for your input. Please keep it coming.

Sutayl


drummingcraig
(Registered User)
Sun Sep 10 2017 11:00 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Quote:

That makes sense to me. Just follow the money--I mean, the orange bands on the radar. We are buckling our seat-belts here on Amelia Island; it's gonna be a bumpy night. We have 50+mph gusts roaring right now, 35+ sustained winds, hard rain lashing and shaking the house, and worse is on the way. We still have power, but likely not for long--lights are flickering as I type.

I've been lurking here for a couple of days, and there sure are a lot of smart people on this board. Thanks to all for your input. Please keep it coming.

Sutayl




I am right there with you (in Jacksonville). The 11pm NHC track is sticking with the computer models and still appears to have it passing between Tampa and Orlando and continuing its bend to the NW. There's been some mention of movement to the NE by our local station and another one, but I think that is likely just the wobble of the deteriorating eye. We'll see what happens and if that NW move happens.


StormHound
(Weather Guru)
Sun Sep 10 2017 11:30 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Quote:

Quote:

That makes sense to me. Just follow the money--I mean, the orange bands on the radar. We are buckling our seat-belts here on Amelia Island; it's gonna be a bumpy night. We have 50+mph gusts roaring right now, 35+ sustained winds, hard rain lashing and shaking the house, and worse is on the way. We still have power, but likely not for long--lights are flickering as I type.

I've been lurking here for a couple of days, and there sure are a lot of smart people on this board. Thanks to all for your input. Please keep it coming.

Sutayl




I am right there with you (in Jacksonville). The 11pm NHC track is sticking with the computer models and still appears to have it passing between Tampa and Orlando and continuing its bend to the NW. There's been some mention of movement to the NE by our local station and another one, but I think that is likely just the wobble of the deteriorating eye. We'll see what happens and if that NW move happens.




This is almost embarassing for the NHC. True, it doesn't make a huge amount of difference. But the NHC always used to use some common sense and experience in their tracks. The track has been wrong all day and they haven't adjusted. It's almost like they aren't allowed to vary from the computer models anymore.


WestFLJess
(Registered User)
Sun Sep 10 2017 11:31 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Quote:

Quote:

Why do they need to adjust their track? Is the 5pm track not correct?




Irma is east of the 5PM track already and moving N. So as mentioned unless she starts to turn NW this track will not verify and put her much further inland.

Power just failed in Sebring where I was yesterday, so it seems I made the right call to come home. Still have a long night of gusty winds to deal with however.




Thank you for the explanation. When a new 1x poster posts something like that with no explanation (especially during a Hurricane) it helps to understand the reasoning behind their statement.

Hoping for the sleep tonight. Irma is hitting us hard right now.


scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Mon Sep 11 2017 12:11 AM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Irma was weaker than expected in the Tampa Bay area ... expected 65-80mph winds and gusts near 100 in Tampa but currently getting 50-60mph and gusts over 70... pretty much a moderate tropical storm... Polk county got about what is expected 60-70mph with gusts around 80-90 as you go around Bartow-Lakeland. Remember the 100mph winds are above the surface and trees. I hear 1 lady on TV saying this is the worst she's ever seen.. well she must be from up north cause Jeanne and Francis was alittle worse. If Irma didn't go through Naples N and went further west thru even Ft Myers.. it would of held together alittle longer and since it was more west, Tampa-St Pete would of gotten what was expected. Also southern side of the storm is much less in the way of rain than expected. Overall, most of the west coast of Florida got a Tropical Storm unless you're around Ft Myers-Naples area. Expect Irma to stay a hurricane till 8am-11am by the NHC cause again they say the winds above the surface.

cieldumort
(Moderator)
Mon Sep 11 2017 01:58 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Irma's Cone of Uncertainty - Why it is so important to use the Cone and not the line.

OrlandoDan
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Sep 11 2017 03:53 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Why did southwest Seminole county take such a beating. We are without power and have trees uprooted pretty bad. More so than a local tornado.

JMII
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Sep 12 2017 08:34 AM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Quote:

Irma's Cone of Uncertainty - Why it is so important to use the Cone and not the line.




Overall the NHC did a very good job...
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/forecasts-have-done-a-good-job-predicting-irmas-shifting-path/

There were only 2 small errors but these lead to major differences in who was effected -

1) Irma's constant W to WNW motion and at one point a SW motion on the Cuban coast (9/9 @ 8AM). This altered landfall from the up the spine of FL to a west coast landfall.

2) Irma's NE motion after landfall in Naples (9/10 @ 6PM) followed by a due N run for 6 hours (thru 12AM). This spared Tampa but moved damage more into Central FL (like Orlando) as the eye moved over Arcadia vs Sarasota.

Another surprise was the 1/2 eye situation that occurred in Naples. There was nothing behind (south) of the storm, I was watching Jeff's live periscope feed and the eye came over, everyone came out, then... nothing. Its didn't even rain, the winds didn't seem to come back up at all. I think this helped to limit damage in Naples somewhat. See: http://flhurricane.com/images/mirrors/2017/LRRadar/LRRadar_091020171808.png

Still working on getting my time lapse video up, taking panels down today after general clean up yesterday.


doug
(Weather Analyst)
Tue Sep 12 2017 10:11 AM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

I generally agree that a post-mortem on Irma is important. NHC did an excellent job all along. There were two things on Sunday that seemed to not be factored in: the effect of the dry air that dove into the storm as it moved north off Cuba and apparently a low feature was contributing to the weather that developed up the east coast from Jacksonville to Charleston. Common opinion seems to support that the weather in those two areas were part of the tropical low, but were they?

MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Wed Sep 13 2017 07:26 AM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

The UKMet has joined the other models in keeping it away from the US. it still needs to be monitored, but much less likely to affect the US than before, Bermuda has a small risl also.


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