cieldumort
(Moderator)
Wed Sep 13 2017 11:52 PM
HURRICANE Maria Lounge




A vigorous wave now in the central-eastern Tropical Atlantic roughly 650 miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands at the time of this post is showing some initial signs of organization, with deep convection curling in towards a broad center.

As of the 8:00PM Sep 13 NHC Tropical Weather Outlook, this disturbance was given a 30% chance of development within 5 days, and this may be conservative.

Movement is generally westward at around 15mph.

This wave has been Invest tagged, 96L, and the title has been updated.

Maria is now a hurricane and the title has been updated. - Ciel


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Fri Sep 15 2017 04:59 AM
Re: 96L Lounge

The long range GFS 0z this morning has this as a Hurricane over the Eastern Caribbean islands Tuesday morning, Over Puerto Rico Wednesday night, then Long Island/Rhode Island late on Tuesday, Sept 26th. (after the same area is hit by Jose on sept 20)

0z Euro takes it over the Eastern Caribbean islands late Monday as a TS or cat 1 hurricane, then over the Dominican Republic as a hurricane next Friday, then through the eastern Bahamas late that night, moving north east of the US at the end of the run.


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Fri Sep 15 2017 08:20 AM
Re: 96L Lounge

6z gfs, cat 1 hurricane between Martinique and St. Lucia Tuesday morning.
Over Hispaniola Friday, then moves north staying east of the Bahamas

Cat 3/4 landfall just north of Savannah GA on Monday the 25th.


ftlaudbob
(Storm Chaser)
Fri Sep 15 2017 09:45 AM
Re: 96L Lounge

The GOM,Florida,you just know the east coast is next.

MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Fri Sep 15 2017 12:10 PM
Re: 96L Lounge

12z GFS Cat 2 hit on Martinique this go around late Monday night, clips eastern tip of the Dominican Republic Thursday (cat 3), east side over western tip of PR, then moves east of the Bahamas to near where Jose is at right now on Sep 24th, bends back to the west on sept 25th. Cat 3 landfall near Wilmington, NC late night on the 25th.


Bonus storm on the GFS in the Gulf on Sep 28th with a Cat 2 landfall north of Tampa.





MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Fri Sep 15 2017 02:33 PM
Re: 96L Lounge

12Z euro for 96L, lanfall near Dominica or Guadeloupe Tuesday morning, near PR Wed-Thursday (Northeast Eyewall clips PR), then moving toward Dominican republic. Then moves NNW just east of the Bahamas. Jose moving south, and TD#14 way to the east, very odd setup. Final frame 96L kicks Jose into Massachusetts on Sep 25th.




Bloodstar
(Moderator)
Fri Sep 15 2017 04:06 PM
Re: 96L Lounge

My thought on the 12z Euro? Odd is an unsderstatment. If it validates, people will go nuts from the uncertainty

doug
(Weather Analyst)
Fri Sep 15 2017 04:40 PM
Re: 96L Lounge

Re:bonus storm the very thought is nauseating. Emily and Irma are enough for one year

B.C.Francis
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Sep 15 2017 05:34 PM
Re: 96L Lounge

Here in Brevard County I`m watching 96L with a microscope. Lee coming up ? We got spanked here.

MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Sat Sep 16 2017 12:54 AM
Re: 96L Lounge

0z GFS no longer has the bonus storm, but takes 96L as a cat 3 into Jacksonville on Sep 25th, after moving through Hispaniola.

doug
(Weather Analyst)
Sat Sep 16 2017 08:15 AM
Re: 96L Lounge

Re: bonus storm. That is good news. Let's hope the GFS is overreaching on 96L as well. We would not want its record this year to begin to improve now.

MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Sat Sep 16 2017 08:57 AM
Re: 96L Lounge

0z euro shows 96l as a cat 1 over Puerto Rico thursday, then just east of the Turks and Caicos late Friday night, then ends the run as a Cat 3 approaching Morehead City, NC.


6Z GFS has it over Hispaniola Friday morning, over the Turks and Caicos Friday night, Cat 3 landfall near Charleston, SC on Late Monday the 25th, then exits over Deleware Tuesday (26th) afternoon then another landfall in Long Island the morning of Sept 26th.


Keith B
(Verified CFHC User)
Sat Sep 16 2017 10:57 AM
Re: 96L Lounge


NHC will initiate advisories at 11 AM AST on Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen, currently located east of the Lesser Antilles.


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Sat Sep 16 2017 11:52 AM
Re: 96L Lounge

12Z GFS Running takes it over Guadeloupe /Dominica Tuesday morning. Clips or direct landfall on southwestern Puerto Rico and the clips Eastern Dominican Republic, then goes over the Turks and Caicos on Friday Then a cat 3 landfall near Morehead City, NC on the Evening of Sept 26th, it then stays generally inland for the next 2 days after it, probably causing a lot of flooding.

CMC Has landfalls in Guadeloupe, Haiti, Cuba, South Florida, and Alabama. But keeps it a Tropical Storm after Haiti.


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Sat Sep 16 2017 05:59 PM
Re: 96L Lounge

18z for Maria: Seems to be starting out too far north from the get go.

Over Guadalope, cat 2 hurricane Tuesday morning. IOver St. Kits Cat 2/3 Late Tuesday night. Over St. Croix Wednesday morning, cat 3. Over Vieques later that morning, Landfall southeast Puerto Rico midday Wednesday, Cat 3. Exiting NW Puero Rico as a cat to Thursday morning. Clips the eastern tip of the Dominican Republic later thursday morning, then stays north of the island. Cat 3 over Turks and Caicos Friday night. It then moves north and is east of NC on Sep 26, a god deal east, with Jose still around to its east, the GFS gets a bit weird past the Bahamas, so not sure if it should even be taken seriously. No other landfalls.


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Sun Sep 17 2017 04:40 AM
Re: 96L Lounge

Overnight 0z runs (looking for trends, not exact track)

0z ECMWF: landfall near Dominica late tomorrow night, stays just south of PR Wednesday, over the Eastern Part of the Dominican Republic Thursday, over the Turks and Caicos and Eastern Bahamas next Sunday and the following Monday, Cat 3. Cat 3 landfall near Wilmington, NC Late on Sep 26th.

0z GFS Guadalope landfall Tuesday morning, cat 1/2 hurricane, Virgin Islands Wednesday morning Cat 2/3. veers barely north of Puerto RIoc, over Turks and Caicos Friday midday, cate 3, then stays away from the US, but hits Newfoundland in Canada on Sep 28th. The model is struggling with Jose still around.


B.C.Francis
(Storm Tracker)
Sun Sep 17 2017 11:42 AM
Re: 96L Lounge

Maria has really got my interest today. The system has a little more of a westerly movement than a north movement. If this continues, by tomorrow the cone should shift a little more to the left. I was wondering what weather system out there that would possibly steer Maria away from the US and Florida east coast. Does Jose have a bit of a influence on Maria ? I`m going to be watching Maria real close it looks like the rest of next week and in to the weekend. We don`t need any more tropical weather events here in Brevard County, not to mention the rest of the state.

doug
(Weather Analyst)
Sun Sep 17 2017 01:01 PM
Re: 96L Lounge

The discussion I heard today was if Jose is still lingering around the mid Atlantic coast in three days then Maria will move east of the coast. But if Jose is off Newfoundland the the Atlanic High has reasserted itself and Maria will be forced west. This from met at Fox 13 Tampa

Keith B
(Verified CFHC User)
Sun Sep 17 2017 05:30 PM
Re: 96L Lounge

CMC, 9/17 @ 12Z. Shows a low that appears to be crossing Central America and developing in the Gulf of Honduras, on 9/25. Moves North towards the southeast GOM and then south of Tampa on 9/27. Wow, hyper overactive season.

I would like to see other models show the same pattern to support this.


TPuppy
(Registered User)
Sun Sep 17 2017 08:49 PM
Re: 96L Lounge

Where can I find the CMC that shows this potential issue?

Biff83
(Registered User)
Sun Sep 17 2017 09:56 PM
Re: 96L Lounge

Quote:

Where can I find the CMC that shows this potential issue?





https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis...=0&ypos=100

Biff


Reaper
(Weather Watcher)
Sun Sep 17 2017 10:00 PM
Re: 96L Lounge

It will again be interesting if Maria will be another Hebert Box storm like Irma.

vpbob21
(Weather Guru)
Sun Sep 17 2017 11:23 PM
Re: HURRICANE Maria Lounge

The only good thing I can think of is that most of the model guidance suggest a track that should stay a little south of the islands that got crushed by Irma. The bad thing is that most of the models are calling for Maria to strengthen explosively as it approaches the islands - some suggesting a 20 - 25 mb drop in pressure in the last 12 hours before moving through the islands. It appears Dominica is pretty much in the crosshairs of the spot where Maria pushes through the Lesser Antilles (supported by the NHC forecast - 71% chance of hurricane force winds). I was on a cruise a while back that called in Dominica and got to see some of the island and I don't think most of the houses would survive a strong tropical storm, let alone a cat 4 hurricane. I am really worried of a major catastrophe if they were to take a direct hit from this.

Beyond that the models start to fan out but generally indicate St. Croix and eastern Puerto Rico as the most likely areas to get hit then maybe the Turks and Caicos (which did get hit by Irma). 0Z runs should be interesting.


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Mon Sep 18 2017 08:17 AM
Re: HURRICANE Maria Lounge

Quick summary

6Z GFS has Maria over St Croix, then Puerto Rico on Wednesday, cat 3/4. Then keeps it east of theTurks and caicos and sends it out to sea.

0z Euro clips just the southwest corner of PR with the eyewall, then over the eastern part of the Dominican republic, then over the Turks and Caicos, after which it heads out to sea, but not before knocking what's left of Jose into the outer banks.

Bad news for the islands, better news for the continental US, as it is unlikely to approach Florida and points north also have a low chance for impacts from Maria. Jose is a different matter, however.


doug
(Weather Analyst)
Mon Sep 18 2017 11:13 AM
Re: HURRICANE Maria Lounge

Jose must be setting some kind of longevity record by now, and certainly if it is still around next week. Here I am, newly excited by the dropping of the "bonus Storm" hitting the west coast of Florida around the 28th or so because I am going to the mountains on the 29th only to be faced with good ole Jose being kicked ashore about 250 mile SE of where I will be and certain to come on up to the mountains for a visit too. Having experienced Ivan passing through the mountains to my west one year and seeing first hand how that goes, I can say I will be most disappointed to have Jose in the neighbor hood the first few days of October...where is that high latitude trough that is needed to push Jose away?

Reaper
(Weather Watcher)
Mon Sep 18 2017 01:21 PM
Re: HURRICANE Maria Lounge

12z GFS appears to show Jose moving out a little sooner and a significant shift westward for Maria, getting really close to the outer banks area.

scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Mon Sep 18 2017 01:52 PM
Re: HURRICANE Maria Lounge

Was a west shift but not significant..especially on days 4-5... lets try to keep it 5 days out at most.. cause we ALL KNOW the models will jump around after 5 days unless the GFS and Euro are almost exactly alike

Steve C
(Verified CFHC User)
Tue Sep 19 2017 12:05 AM
Re: HURRICANE Maria Lounge

Maria seems to be half hurricane, half tornado.

0300 UTC TUE SEP 19 FORECAST ADVISORY

Eye diameter 10 NM
Max wind 140 KT, gusts to 170 KT
Max diameter of hurricane force winds 50 NM

So in a radius from the center:
5 NM of eye
20 NM of hurricane, winds profiling from 140 KT to 64 KT.


cieldumort
(Moderator)
Tue Sep 19 2017 12:13 AM
Re: HURRICANE Maria Lounge

Quote:

Maria seems to be half hurricane, half tornado.



With not only the wind, but pressure profile, to boot.

And speaking of her very low central pressure, 'Maria's current pressure of 924 mb is the lowest for an Atlantic hurricane this late in the calendar year since Wilma (2005)' - Phil Klotzbach


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Tue Sep 19 2017 05:54 AM
Re: 96L Lounge

0z gfs and euro take Maria over Puerto Rico and the Euro takes it close, but not over the Turks and Caicos, before turning it out to sea. Closest approach to the US is on Wednesday the 27th, but both models keep it well east of the US for now.

Models are generally in good agreement out to 5 days or so, so it is very likely this one stays away from the continental US. We'll keep monitoring it for that, though, particularly for the trends (Mid Atlantic/NE would have highest risk, Florida is extremely unlikely) With the strong trof approaching the east coast next week, it's fairly safe bet this won't directly affect the continental US. Large Surf/swells will continue to be a problem though, Jose is already causing that.

Puerto Rico/VI impacts would be Tomorrow and Thursday. The 6z GFS takes it over St Croix Wednesday early morning, then eastern Puerto Rico later that day.


M.A.
(Weather Hobbyist)
Tue Sep 19 2017 08:33 AM
Re: 96L Lounge

I guess this is the year of cat5 storms. I feel for PR. As compact as Maria is, a wobble could be the difference between a scrape and devastation.

"After smoothing out the trochoidal wobbles of Maria's eye, the
initial motion estimate remains west-northwestward, or 300/8 kt."

When the system is this small, I'm guessing it does behave more tornado like.


doug
(Weather Analyst)
Tue Sep 19 2017 02:47 PM
Re: 96L Lounge

prior storm Charley.. serious damage swath was probably confined to 15 miles wide,

Steve C
(Verified CFHC User)
Tue Sep 19 2017 05:07 PM
Re: 96L Lounge

Quote:

prior storm Charley.. serious damage swath was probably confined to 15 miles wide,




Is that because the max winds weren't cat 4-5 as often? I'd think serious damage (I'm thinking risk to structural integrity) would be limited to areas of sustained Cat 3 or higher.

The smallest radii (fastest winds) given in the Forecast/Advisory are for minimal Cat 1. I'd really like to see an additional line item for where Cat 3 winds start. (We're now designating H versus M on the track plots...)

We bailed for Austin when Rita was predicted to make a direct hit on Houston. Got caught in the 9+ hour traffic jam. By the time we got to Austin, Rita, having continued to slow coming across the Gulf (and the approaching front having made up the time) ended up much further east. At my house, we *maybe* had Cat 1 sustained. Probably only as gusts. As soon as I saw this in the Forecast/Advisory on arrival in Austin, we took off back for Houston.


TPuppy
(Registered User)
Tue Sep 19 2017 08:53 PM
Re: 96L Lounge

Praying for a shift in path or a downgrade in intensity but this gal is moving in on VI and
PR. Getting different views on destruction possibilities in the media. Got it hurricane cat 5 bad, small eye and wind field good. Lots of rain bad, mud slides in the mountains bad. Storm surge, a little of an after thought on weather channel. Highest population from Dorado along the northern coast to Ceiba. Other big population zones Caguas, elevated middle of island. Ponce south, shallow water, wondering about storm serge, it is close to directly south of San Juan. Finally Mayaguez, on the west coast slightly elevated, but directly opposit of land fall. I know in Florida the serge effected both coasts, what about an island will the storm serge be as bad on the back side for mayaguez and Cabo Rojo?


Kraig
(Weather Watcher)
Tue Sep 19 2017 11:29 PM
Re: 96L Lounge

First pass of the new hurricane hunter flight at 1120pm has pressure at 907mb.

MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Wed Sep 20 2017 10:53 AM
Re: 96L Lounge

Beyond Puerto rico it looks like it may be getting very close to the Turks and Caicos, but not directly over. Beyond that out to sea seems by far the most likely (no mainland US hit or Bermuda) but we'll have to watch to see if that holds.

MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Thu Sep 21 2017 09:33 AM
Re: 96L Lounge

For future track the biggest questions are how close it gets to the Turks and Caicos and how much will Bermuda be affected. Bermuda isn't likely to take a direct hit, but it may be close enough for some winds from Maria, especially with the windfield expanding and the massive eye (after being so tiny BEFORE Puerto Rico)

Continental US threat is even less likely today than it was yesterday.

Closest approach to Turks/Caicos will be tomorrow afternoon. Hurricane warnings are up Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Puerto Plata and the Turks and Caicos Islands and the Southeastern Bahamas. Closest Approach to the US/Bermuda is on Wednesday, but appears to likely be safely away from either then.


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Fri Sep 22 2017 05:25 AM
Re: 96L Lounge

From here all the models, save the CMC, take Maria out to sea. With Wednesday being the key day for any potential surprises based on that. However, with so much going against it it appears out to sea remains the most likely scenario.

Maria is passing just to the east of the Turks and Caicos today, close enough for them to feel many of the affects. Beyond that North Carolina and Bermuda will want to keep an eye on it, but it appears neither will see direct impacts (other than heavy surf, minor coastal flooding, and rip currents)


ftlaudbob
(Storm Chaser)
Fri Sep 22 2017 07:29 AM
Re: 96L Lounge

I sure am not going to write this storm off until I see what happens Wednesday,going to be interesting.


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