MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Thu May 10 2018 09:33 PM
2018 General Model Watching

Starting this one a bit early as the GFS is throwing up a system in the W. Carib around May 20th, and nears the Tampa area on May 25th. Nothing else collaborates it, and it seems a bit too far fetched based on general conditions in May to take too seriously, but I'm still going to mention it. I'm also going to mention I don't think it will develop.

IsoFlame
(Weather Hobbyist)
Fri May 11 2018 04:58 PM
Re: 2018 General Model Watching

Ooops.... I just posted same in the general discussion before I saw your post Mike. Yep~ conditions aren't favorable for this scenario so the GFS is probably out to lunch. However, any low in the eastern Gulf (most often dropping down from the north on the tail of a late cold front) in late May or early June will be in a historically favored region for pre or early season development. I agree that we shouldn't be too concerned for significant tropical cyclogenesis. Whatever pans out will probably be beneficial by kick starting the peninsula's summer monsoon season a week or so early, helping relieve the significant rain deficit (%50) in many parts of south and central Florida.

IsoFlame
(Weather Hobbyist)
Fri May 11 2018 05:02 PM
Re: 2018 General Model Watching

Latest discussion from NWS Melbourne agrees...

Tuesday-Friday (previous)...The cutoff low in the eastern Gulf is
forecast to lift northward and fill by mid week, but with a trough
aloft lingering down into the Gulf. Meanwhile, the Bermuda High will
hold steady and even strengthen a few millibars. This will keep a
moist southeast/south low level wind flow through the week. PoPs
should continue in the likely category through midweek then drop to
40-50 percent late in the week. High temps will be held down into
the lower 80s Mon by clouds/showers then nudge back to the mid-upper
80s by mid-late week.

We will have to see for certain, but the moist pattern setting up
could transition the area into the wet season, which would be a
couple weeks early.


Keith B
(Weather Watcher)
Sun May 13 2018 04:39 PM
Re: 2018 General Model Watching

MLB's AFD from 338 PM EDT Sat May 12 2018. Is conformation to the previous post:

Previous Mid-Range Forecast Discussion Modified...

Sun Night-Wed...Anomalous cutoff mid to upper level low over the
eastern GOMEX will be very slow to ease toward the NNE early next
week, as its center won`t reach the NE Gulf coast until Wed morning.
This feature will act upon the inverted trough which emerges from
the western FL peninsula Sun evening, generating weak surface low
development as it pushes away from the coast. This low will lift
slowly northward in tandem with its parent mid/upper level system.
The local air mass will finish its transition to featuring deep
layer SE to S flow with an anomalously high PWAT air mass of at
least 1.8 to 2.0" several days in a row. Similar to the late May
2009 cutoff over the state, this is expected to "jump start" the
Florida wet season about a couple weeks before the median date.
Several days in a row of well above normal rain chances (numerous to
widespread afternoon/evening showers with isolated to locally
scattered storms) QPF totals are forecast.


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Wed May 16 2018 10:34 PM
Re: 2018 General Model Watching

I'm extremely skeptical of this, but the GFS and Euro are showing something trying to get going in the eastern Gulf/Cuba late next week, GFS extended has it becoming a hurricane and eventually moving into the Central Gulf toward Louisiana, but not before bringing a ton of rain to Florida. (Again) after going over the Keys and Southwest Florida as a Tropical Storm or hurricane on Sat the 26th. Euro has a strong low or Tropical Storm just north of the west tip of Cuba on Saturday 26 May. The exerimental FV3 GFS actually has it becoming a major hurricane landfalling in Alabama on May 28th.

I remain extremely skeptical about all this based on shearing conditions alone, but it is worth calling out as an area to watch late next week, at least for a lot more rain.


RedingtonBeachGuy
(Moderator)
Thu May 17 2018 01:10 AM
Re: 2018 General Model Watching

saw that - came to check in early. Crazy early, eh? Some of the experimental paths are actually looping it back toward Florida late so we'll have to watch it a bit closer to see if it develops and, if so, if it stays west.

MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Thu May 17 2018 08:05 AM
Re: 2018 General Model Watching

This morning's 0Z GFS run shows the gyre start to spin up in the West Caribbean Wednesday, then gets into the Gulf just north of the west tip of Cuba Early Friday morning, then gets up to just west of Florida by Friday Afternoon and starts strengthening, sending massive rain toward Florida. It remains more or less in the same area until Sunday afternoon and makes it up to a borderline cat 1/2 hurricane during that time. (Saturday the 26th is when it hits hurricane) A sloppy cat one makes landfall near Panama City Beach very early on Monday May 28th.

The 0z Euro also shows a similar run, with the system as a Cat 1 Hurricane west of Tampa Saturday afternoon on May 26th. (Where the run ends)

The 6Z GFS is more or less the same as the 0z. The new highly experimental FV3 GFS model is a good deal west toward Texas, but is the outlier there. The 6Z of the same model seems to be trending much further east (its still running). Additionally the ensembles all have the system rather clustered in the Eastern Gulf next weekend.


euro:

gfs:


Don't focus on the details, but just be aware both of the major models are giving us some sort of heads up for late next week 10 days out is a bit long for a forecast. Shear and dry air likely will be working against anything developing (it would keep it fairly disorganized), but moisture is a given either way.


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Wed May 23 2018 10:10 PM
Re: 2018 General Model Watching

Although 90L is split between the Euro solution to the west and GFS to the east (and I think the middle w/ Panhandle or Alabama is most likey) There's another system showing up on the long range GFS models for the following weekend in the Gulf (June 2nd) eventually making a florida landfall on Wed. June 6th as a Tropical storm or lower scale Hurricane. It's fantasy range, but the general gist is enhanced rainfal may continue into June.

IsoFlame
(Weather Hobbyist)
Mon Jun 04 2018 02:29 PM
Re: 2018 General Model Watching

GFS has been consistent the past several runs showing a weak low developing from a slug of moisture in the western Caribbean near the Yucatan Peninsula ejecting northeastward into the SW GOMEX around the 12th. The low closes off as it drifts toward the Florida on the 13th, then sets up camp for several days near Tampa Bay, funneling copious amounts of tropical moisture into peninsular Florida before opening up on the 16th. If this scenario plays out, central Florida will be in for another extended period of heavy rain well above what normally is generated by the typical summer sea breeze dominated pattern.

MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Wed Jun 06 2018 07:21 AM
Re: 2018 General Model Watching

Mentioning this briefly, the GFS has been moderately consistant about developing something in the west Caribbean mid next week, (as well as in the East Pacific), but it doesn't have much support from the other models, so ti falls into the "wait and see", but don't expect anything category.

This same GFS run (6z) eventually shows a storm making landfall in the western panhandle on Friday, June 15th.

Euro, and other models do NOT show it. but do show the eastern pacific system.


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Thu Jun 07 2018 10:50 AM
Re: 2018 General Model Watching

GFS is still showing a system starting to form in the Western Caribbean on Tuesday, and eventually making landfall in the West Panhandle on Friday June 15h as a hurricane, but, unlike Alberto the ECMWF model shows nothing, instead preferring the eastern pacific development.

The canadan does show it, but the Navy, UK and German Icon model does not,

Something to watch next week, but nothing concerning, yet.


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Thu Jun 07 2018 02:38 PM
Re: 2018 General Model Watching

12GFS and euro are similar to prior runs. Nothing on the Euro, and the 12Z GFS is weaker with a Tropical storm to PCB.

Prospero
(Weather Guru)
Thu Jun 07 2018 11:54 PM
Re: 2018 General Model Watching

Watching the GOES-16 sats right now it appears to me there is an energy that is moving much quicker to the north and is already north of Cuba. If this little spin develops it will be near Tampa Bay tomorrow, the 8th.

Not sure what I am seeing though.


doug
(Weather Analyst)
Fri Jun 08 2018 09:28 AM
Re: 2018 General Model Watching

weak ULL in the NE GOM...it is discussed in the local forecasts...check out the one for west central FL.

IsoFlame
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Jun 09 2018 09:16 AM
Re: 2018 General Model Watching

NWS Melbourne overnight (6/9) discussion:
The GFS remains an outlier with respect to cyclogenesis near the Yucatan Peninsula late in the week. This forecast package will continue to lean heavily toward the ECMWF and CMC, which both show a much broader area of disturbed weather across the southern Gulf and little change to the overall pattern across central Florida.


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Sun Jun 10 2018 09:55 PM
Re: 2018 General Model Watching

GFS has been trending west and weaker, while the ECMWF still shows nothing, there's still no compelling reason to see development this week. But it is an area to watch.

IsoFlame
(Weather Hobbyist)
Mon Jun 11 2018 01:35 PM
Re: 2018 General Model Watching

Monday morning's 8 am Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion:

"A mid to upper level trough extending across the eastern Gulf and the NW Caribbean into northern Central America continues to enhance the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms across the eastern Gulf, and over parts of Florida. Convection is now more concentrated over the Se Gulf and the Yucatan Channel."

At mid-day, the GOES-East Caribbean sector loop illustrated an elongated area of convection firing over the open waters of the NW Caribbean Sea. Hmmm....


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Wed Jun 13 2018 09:29 AM
Re: 2018 General Model Watching

Updating 91L/Other areas. 91L is all but gone from the GFS in 6Z this morning, and Euro has almost no support, however the satellite presentation is decent, I'd expect it to hold at 20% development but never develop.

There is a potential for something to spin off the east coast of Florida seen on the Euro model Sunday, which is still unlikely, but worth watching to see if anything comes of that, if nothing else from the proximity alone. Monday morning it has a TS offshore of West Palm Beach, after spinning up from a low that comes off the coast from near Jacksonville the day before.


doug
(Weather Analyst)
Wed Jun 13 2018 11:15 AM
Re: 2018 General Model Watching

Any time a surface low, weak or otherwise, develops along a tropical wave as suggested in the discussion this morning, it bears watching.

MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Wed Jun 13 2018 09:24 PM
Re: 2018 General Model Watching

Just to follow up the W. Carib area and the E. Florida are both have no model support to speak of today.

Keith B
(Weather Watcher)
Thu Jun 14 2018 05:52 PM
Re: 2018 General Model Watching

Quote:

Updating 91L/Other areas. 91L is all but gone from the GFS in 6Z this morning, and Euro has almost no support, however the satellite presentation is decent, I'd expect it to hold at 20% development but never develop.

There is a potential for something to spin off the east coast of Florida seen on the Euro model Sunday, which is still unlikely, but worth watching to see if anything comes of that, if nothing else from the proximity alone. Monday morning it has a TS offshore of West Palm Beach, after spinning up from a low that comes off the coast from near Jacksonville the day before.




Just saw this from MLB AFD @ 1451. In ref to the FB post:

Previous Discussion...

Sun-Wed...Broad high pressure ridging aloft centered over the Ohio
Valley extends southward to across the Florida Peninsula early in
the period. This high pressure gets pushed southward to across the
Gulf Coast States through early next week, then retrogrades toward
east Texas midweek. As this occurs, the latest GFS takes a shortwave
trough along the eastern seaboard and drops it southward where a
closed low circulation develops aloft by late Mon over the Bahamas.
Rotating around the periphery of the previously mentioned high
pressure, it continues through the Florida Straits where it finally
weakens into midweek.


IsoFlame
(Weather Hobbyist)
Fri Jun 15 2018 07:03 PM
Re: 2018 General Model Watching

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion As of 1500 UTC on 6/15/18:
A surface trough is located E of Florida, and extends from 31N77W to 27N80W. Scattered showers and tstms are near and ahead of the trough. The trough offshore of northern and central Florida will be overtaken by a backdoor cold front this weekend, which will move S through early next week. The high pressure ridge located S of these boundaries will sink southward ahead of the features. New high pres is forecast to build from N of the area by Tue.


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Wed Aug 01 2018 04:43 PM
Re: 2018 General Model Watching

August starts with nothing much, the extended EPS (Euro Ensemble Model) doesn't really show much for August, although things change rapidly in September. August 18th or so has a hint of activity in the long range, but not much else. Hawaii may want to keep an eye on on Hector.

MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Tue Aug 21 2018 07:47 PM
Re: 2018 General Model Watching

The Atlantic is still very slow, but a few things of note on the models, late August the 12Z Euro shows a strong wave emerging in the Gulf. The 18z GFS shows something going in the Gulf on Labor Day Weekend. Neither are alarming right now, but its something to keep an eye on over the next week or so for persistence.

Lane near Hawaii is still the big event at the moment.


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Wed Aug 22 2018 03:17 PM
Re: 2018 General Model Watching

Gulf idea from last night has gone away, but the follow up is the 12Z euro showing something starting over the Bahamas (From the TWO Wave currently at 20%) on September 1st.

Good news is that there's still nothing showing but a faint few signals (like the Bahamas) that activity might begin to pick up in a few weeks.


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Fri Aug 24 2018 10:50 AM
Re: 2018 General Model Watching

Still nothing solid, in the models, but the European Ensembles insist things start up in the first weeks of September. One outlier in the models in the 0z CMC (Aka Canadian Model) which forms a system in the Bahamas late next week and has a hurricane into Miami on Labor Day. This is too far out to take seriously, but it does indicate what general locations to start looking at in the coming weeks.

MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Sat Aug 25 2018 07:50 AM
Global Model Watching in the Atlantic

Still nothing ultra solid on the models, the CMC still showing popping up in the Bahamas a week from today, but nothing else is mirroring that yet. Earlier runs of the GFS were hinting at something also, but the most recent 6Z does not. Some activity in the Main Development Region in the central and eastern Atlantic, but nothing solid.

The 0Z Euro shows a weak area in the Bahamas next Saturday also. What the CMC and Euro picked up on is the wave that was called out a few days ago as a 20% area, but is no longer mentioned in the TWO. So in short, for now, following that area along (Which is hard to see at the moment since it is so disorganized, in the east Atlantic) is the only thing going on. Virtually No chance for development in the next 5 days, a bit beyond that, maybe.

The very end of the GFS FV3 has 3 systems in the Atlantic in the 2nd week in September..

Conditions are starting to change again in the Atlantic,


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Sat Aug 25 2018 01:47 PM
Re: Global Model Watching in the Atlantic

operational GFS is not showing much development in the 12Z runs, however the FV3 GFS does show a developing tropical depression or storm making landfall along E. Central Florida a week from Tomorrow. Canadian does also, and keeps it up the spine of peninsula, whereas the FV3 enters into the Gulf for a second landfall in Louisiana as a stronger storm or hurricane on September 4th. The operational GFS has no sign of either of them.

This doesn't mean much other than a suspect area to watch this week as it crosses the Atlantic and watching the model trends. The CMC has gone nearly 24 hours with something developing near the Bahamas next weekend. FV3 GFS only more recently. IF others join in, particularly both the Euro and normal GFS, it will become a big focus later this coming week.

This setup is prime for sleeper waves (waves that don't develop until they make it into north of the Caribbean), which can have the tropical situation change rapidly.




RedingtonBeachGuy
(Moderator)
Sun Aug 26 2018 12:08 AM
Re: Global Model Watching in the Atlantic

Nice pickup Mike. Seems to be several models now hinting at something coming across Florida during that time frame. Canadian seems to really blow it up. Interesting side note, if you look at the CVSv2 weekly Accumulated Percip Anomaly, it's also hinting at +2 - +3 for that period, and a +4+/- two weeks later around the 15th - 21st. Long, long time out but still interesting to see.

MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Sun Aug 26 2018 11:42 AM
Re: Global Model Watching in the Atlantic

0z Canadian and 6Z GFS FV3 have both backed off development for labor day weekend, German Icon still does. 6Z GFS and 0z Euro shows a weak wave in the Gulf on Sep 3rd, and two areas in the east Atlantic starting

Based on this, the Atlantic should start up late next week. (the system closer likely won't develop this coming weekend, but still should watch it)


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Mon Aug 27 2018 10:53 AM
Re: Global Model Watching in the Atlantic

6Z GFS shows a weak area making landfall near Melbourne, FL a week from tomorrow. However it is alone, The 0z CMC does show an area in the South Bahamas that goes over the Florida Keys on Labor Day. German Icon model continues to show development east of the Bahamas starting this Wednesday.

Beyond that by late next week, there may be 3 things being tracked in the Main Development region in the Central and Eastern Atlantic (GFS, CMC, AND 0z Euro show this)


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Mon Aug 27 2018 05:12 PM
Re: Global Model Watching in the Atlantic

12Z Euro ensembles at https://weather.us/cyclone-tracks/euro/902-w-263-n/2018082712-240.html are interesting showng some tracks for next week.



But the main run of the Euro shows it entering near Corpus Christi on Sep 6th. Something to watch closer, as well as other systems behind it.


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Tue Aug 28 2018 12:28 AM
Re: Global Model Watching in the Atlantic

Model trends tonight,. tropical sparks, but nothing catching fire. The 0z GFS backed off development in the Gulf, the Nam shows something spinning in the northwest Gulf this Friday, The GFS does show a wave exiting off Africa this weekend, that eventually recurves further west in the Atlantic.

The system east of the Bahamas does not develop.

Nothing has a decent enough chance currently (for the next 5 days) to be mentioned in the official Outlook, It's more of a signal things may pick up in September.


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Tue Aug 28 2018 06:58 AM
Re: Global Model Watching in the Atlantic

0Z Euro has a system developing in the Bahamas late Sunday/Monday then gets going Late Tuesday in the eastern Gulf, with a landfalling Tropical Storm or low end Hurricane in Southeastern Louisiana, late Thursday (Sep 7th). This is from the same area that models were sparking up over the Bahamas this weekend. 6Z GFS Shows this area also, but much weaker, and never develops it so much, but also winds up in Southeastern Louisiana on Thursday. Something to watch even though the area looks like nothing now.



Don't focus on the track of it this far out, but rather the fact something may start to get going later this weekend in that general area.

The Esemble runs give you an idea of the spread, and intensity at this far out is extremely unreliable.


This area still has nothing solid to track, and could disappear in a day or two, important to watch if this thing persists or not this week to see if this happens at all.


The 20% area the Euro develops, but recurves it northward in the Central Atlantic



MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Tue Aug 28 2018 02:44 PM
Re: Global Model Watching in the Atlantic

12Z GFS is much weaker and further north, never really develops the system east of the Antilles. 12Z Euro has a tropical storm making landfall near Miami/Ft. Lauderdale Monday night, then exits into the Gulf near Venice, FL and strengthens into a hurricane... Thursday night (7th) landfall in Southeast Louisiana.

This far out, it doesn't mean much other than yes, this is worth watching for Florida and the Gulf into next week. Impacts/exact track/intensity is way too early to tell. (There's nothing really to track on satellite yet)

Ensembles:


Euro tropical formation probabilities:




NewWatcher
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Aug 28 2018 03:40 PM
Re: Global Model Watching in the Atlantic

European consistent for quite a few runs now with that wave getting into the Bahamas and strengthening before and after traversing Florida in some capacity. Would like to see more model consensus but I do put more stock in the Euro.

MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Wed Aug 29 2018 07:16 AM
Re: Global Model Watching in the Atlantic

Model summary this morning (mainly for the wave near the lesser antilles)

GFS 6z keeps it a weak wave all the way into texas, affects keys with rain on Sep 6th.

Euro 0z develops it over tha Bahamas, depression or TS near West Palm Beach on late Monday night, exits near tampa by Tuesday night, then Pensacola as a Tropical storm by Wednesday night.

Ensembles:



The Euro does develop the 30% chance wave in the east atlanic, but recurves it out to sea starting around 42W. Two other waves are in the east Atlantic by the end of next week.

The GFS also develops the east atlantic wave, but it also recurves it around 42W. Only one other wave shows up by the end of the week., and it makes it much further west before the end of the model run.





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