Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Thu Aug 17 2006 03:16 AM |
What Do You Think Now?
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While we are waiting during this quite period, I thought that it might be fun to get your thoughts on two items:
1. On what date will Debby become a 'named' tropical storm?
2. Having seen how the season has evolved so far this year, what do you now think the final season tally will be for named storms/hurricanes/major hurricanes?
No rationale is required for your 'guesses', although you can state them if you wish. Lets run the 'contest' until 21Z on Sunday the 20th. I'll post my own thoughts at that time when we close the contest at 5pm EDT on Sunday..
Just reply in this thread with your answers, and please, only those that are willing to stick their neck out should respond. Give it your best shot!
Cheers,
ED
| Storm Cooper |
| (User) |
| Thu Aug 17 2006 08:26 AM |
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Re: What Do You Think Now?
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Debby will be named on August 22nd and I'll stick to 14/6/4 for the season total.
| CoalCracker |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Aug 17 2006 12:34 PM |
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Re: What Do You Think Now?
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Based on the last few GFS runs, climo and an exhaustive discussion with my weather advisor, the eminent Dr. Clamso Linguine, professor emeritus of meteorology at Bologna University, I'll go with 23 August as the date Debby is named. Season totals guess (and it's a guess at best) 15/8/4.
| VMI Bran |
| (Registered User) |
| Thu Aug 17 2006 06:14 PM |
Re: What Do You Think Now?
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Since the 25th is a Friday, and these things always happen on Fridays, I'll go with that. Totals, completely SWAG-ged, at 12/5/2
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Aug 17 2006 07:10 PM |
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Re: What Do You Think Now?
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I went with 15/9/5 back in May, and I'm going to take liberty to lop 2 numbers off of each. I'd look even worse had I gone forward with my plans to bump my numbers to 17...glad I didn't. It's not the seasonal stuff I'm all that great with, anyway.
As for Debby...soon, depending on what that CV wave the GFS is so bullish with does. Coop's Aug. 22nd looks good, give or take a day or so.
| ltpat228 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 18 2006 01:04 AM |
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Re: What Do You Think Now? *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*
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This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard
| Storm Cooper |
| (User) |
| Fri Aug 18 2006 09:54 AM |
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Re: What Do You Think Now?
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Test Post...
| B.C.Francis |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 18 2006 03:23 PM |
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Re: What Do You Think Now?
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I`ll go with 12/6/3..........As for Debbie.....August 24th ??????
| native |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Aug 18 2006 07:14 PM |
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Re: What Do You Think Now?
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Oh, how I love a good guessing game!
Firstly, I am going to trim my numbers to 12/5/3. No logical reasoning behind this, just good ole' gut instinct. As for Debbie/Debby I'll go with August 28th....because I have to be out of town that day and stuff always seems to happen when I'm away from home.
| weatherwatcher999 |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Fri Aug 18 2006 09:14 PM |
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Re: What Do You Think Now?
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Wow, it seems like the Atlantic is dead compared to last year.
I'll go with August 24th for Debby.
And 11/5/3.
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Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Fri Aug 18 2006 11:06 PM |
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Re: What Do You Think Now?
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Hmmm - not too many entries yet, so I'll offer some motivation of historical interest. The winner of the final season tally for named storms/hurricanes/major hurricanes in this thread will receive a color copy of an original WSR88D (NEXRAD) printout of long range base reflectivity from the Melbourne radar taken on August 24, 1992, at 1427Z (the framed original is on the wall in my den).
Remember, you've only got about 46 hours left to post your forecasts/guesses. Good Luck!
Cheers,
ED
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Aug 18 2006 11:25 PM |
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Re: What Do You Think Now?
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Yeah.. Well, this little question has compelled me to rethink my thinking on the season totals to come, once again.
To qualify my vote - these numbers are also going to reflect systems which I believe are deserving, and have the best chances to get, post-season reanalysis inclusion - so, it's possible that I am going to be *way* high until the final tally is done ... and perhaps then I'll just be high, and not be coming from the furthest reaches of our solar system
I was even a little bit north of these just prior to watching the past few weeks worth of possibles wither and die on the vine, having taken the fast track to destruction by making one too many an appearance on the SunnyDry & WindyShear Show, long after it was realized among tropical wanna-be's that doing so amounted to blowing the flame out on any future aspirations.
15/7/3
*** Oh yeah *** As for Debby's B-day, I'll push my vote out on that up to the limit when I can get a better handle on the coming few days.
Edit on 8/20 at 3AM - for best guessing the naming of Debby on 8/23
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Aug 19 2006 11:44 AM |
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Re: What Do You Think Now?
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8/30/06
9/6/2
| NewWatcher |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Aug 20 2006 12:07 AM |
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Re: What Do You Think Now?
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what the heck
12/5/3
and debby august 26
| sara33 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Aug 20 2006 02:54 AM |
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Re: What Do You Think Now?
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Okay,
I am going with...
10/7/2
Debby.. August 29th
Christine
| Hurricane Fredrick 1979 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Aug 20 2006 02:57 AM |
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Re: What Do You Think Now?
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Ok let me get in on this
10/7/4
Debby on the 22nd. Based on the GFS runs
| BillD |
| (User) |
| Sun Aug 20 2006 03:15 AM |
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Re: What Do You Think Now?
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9/6/06 for Debby
9/3/1
Bill
| ElizabethH |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sun Aug 20 2006 09:15 PM |
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Re: What Do You Think Now?
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Debby: 8/27/06
Season: 12/7/4
*I know I'm 15 minutes late... It doesn't have to count..but why not??
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Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Sun Aug 20 2006 09:29 PM |
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Re: What Do You Think Now?
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No your not late since I haven't posted until now. Based mostly on statistical analysis with some MJO and wind shear patterns thrown in, I'm going with 9/13/06 for Debby and 10/4/1 for the season (my guess doesn't count for the season totals).
Thanks to all who participated.
Cheers,
ED
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Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Sun Dec 10 2006 02:12 PM |
...And The Winner Is...
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"Having seen how the season has evolved so far this year, what do you now think the final season tally will be for named storms/hurricanes/major hurricanes?"
The final total was 9/5/2 and John C's guess was 9/6/2 so he's the winner!
Cheers,
ED
| Storm Cooper |
| (User) |
| Tue Dec 12 2006 12:30 AM |
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Re: ...And The Winner Is...
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Congrats John C.! As for 2007 I"ll go with 11/4/2 at this time
| allan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Dec 13 2006 01:57 PM |
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Re: What Do You Think Now?
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9/6/2 it is I guess.. Still think they should name the unamed storm we had rolling far off the coast before Beryl came into the picture. For 2007.. I may be crazy about this but 18/9/7 ... Reason why?? I believe the El Nino will be gone and there may be more favorable conditions for development. May start late and thats why i'm saying 18 instead of 28 lol. The 2007 season doesn't look like it will be another dead one in my eyes. Sorry guys.. it's just my opinion, but if this bothers anyone.. let me know.. it's just a prediction.
| weather_wise911 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Dec 16 2006 08:39 PM |
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Re: ...And The Winner Is...
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Any forecast for next year at this point is little more than a guess--but I`m going to say, just a little over Storm Cooper`s #`s---I`ll go with 14/5/2 for `07.
WW-911
| allan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Dec 18 2006 06:36 PM |
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Re: ...And The Winner Is...
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The winner is wrong.. The NHC has finally declared that the unnamed storm before Beryl in July happened to have 50 mph. sustained winds and a pressure of 998 mlb. This now proves that our tenth storm is declared today! go to the National Hurricane Center page and it will be the first headline. So the count is now 10/6/2!
I knew they wouldn't leave that storm behind.
2006 - 10/6/2
NHC review identifies a 10th Atlantic tropical storm in 2006 Bill Proenza to Succeed
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
* This proves now that we have had an average Hurricane Season! *
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Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Wed Dec 20 2006 03:10 PM |
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Re: ...And The Winner Is...
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Actually, you have made a few mistakes - according to the NHC Archive, the adjusted seasons total for 2006 was 10/5/2, not 10/6/2, so the winners list is not incorrect, its just incomplete.. Four individuals were off by a total count of 2 - so we have a tie, and the winners are:
VMI Bran
weatherwatcher999
John C
sara33
Congrats to all of them - I'll now need to make 4 copies of that NEXRAD image!
Cheers,
ED
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Dec 30 2006 01:41 AM |
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Re: ...And The Winner Is...
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Thank You, and yes it was a gut feeling guess!