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allan
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(Weather Master)
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Sun Aug 27 2006 01:51 PM
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Hurricane Ernesto track
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ok so I see i'm just south of this track ( Palm Coast, FL, east coast). Not good. Generater time! This is just what I predicted to happen... except I predicted it to graze just west of the florida coastline.. Hopefully this track will go more south so I won't be affected much.... Sorry south FL.. Guess schools should close by Wed. over here if things don't change.. I believe if the track doesnt signifigantly shift west ... us here in Central Florida and northeastern Florida are in for a big week! 
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Re: Hurricane Ernesto track
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Not a forecast really...more of a question...but thought more appropriate here.
What if Ernesto misses this ridge & keeps more to the N & actually ends up on the E coast of Fl...or even more against original thinking somewhere else on the Estrn Seaboard?
Looked at one longrange run of the GFS last week showing a cat2 off thee E coast of Fl..of course that far out you don't put too much stock into it.
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cuidado
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(Verified CFHC User)
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Sun Aug 27 2006 03:22 PM
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Re: Hurricane Ernesto track
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I'm glad somebody started this"track" thread since I have no techno-references to back up my "forecast" and I don't want a graveyard on my record while I'm still only a "registered user".
I've been reading the formal discussion and wondering aloud to myself where all the people are who see this storm trying as hard as it can to go NORTH (and thence NE, hopefully)!
He's even Waving at us from 25 70 - YOO HOO .....
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RevUp
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(Weather Guru)
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Sun Aug 27 2006 03:33 PM
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Re: Hurricane Ernesto track
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So, the UL trough is hanging tough against Ernesto, although not enough to diminish its intensity. This is a dramatic change, and the change in the forecast models over the last 24 hours is remarkable. The history of Ernesto and previous forecast tracks are quite amazing! Do you realize the forecast errors for Ernesto beyond 72 hours? Ernesto is one of the reasons these avg forecast errors are so large -- and it's not done yet. At this point, I expect the CENTER of Ernesto to never make landfall in the U.S., although the entire SE US coast will get some rough surf. The subtropical ridge is retreating quickly. After getting torn up crossing Cuba, I believe Ernesto will strengthen to a cat III off the E coast of FL before zooming off to the NE.
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Unregistered User
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(Unregistered)
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Sun Aug 27 2006 04:45 PM
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Re: Hurricane Ernesto track
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Ernesto will die in the mountains of Cuba.
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ltpat228
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(Storm Tracker)
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Sun Aug 27 2006 05:13 PM
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Re: Hurricane Ernesto track
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The eye of Ernesto will exit directly over Daytona Beach.
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sdear
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(Registered User)
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Sun Aug 27 2006 05:15 PM
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Re: Hurricane Ernesto track
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I sure hope it does break up over Cuba ! The track of this thing "for now" shows right by me in Sarasota.
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Bob Dag
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(Registered User)
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Sun Aug 27 2006 05:34 PM
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Re: Hurricane Ernesto track
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Ernesto is going right over my house, and I'm not happy about it.
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JMII
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(Weather Master)
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Sun Aug 27 2006 05:54 PM
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Re: Hurricane Ernesto track
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Quote:
Ernesto will die in the mountains of Cuba.
I wouldn't go that far, but I do think it will be downgraded to a minimal Cat 1 or maybe even TS levels. Heck I find hard to believe it's a Cat 1 'Cane now. Sure the outflow is good but the center is still not wrapped up very tightly. Then again after seeing so many Cat 4/5 last year maybe I just forgot what a Cat 1 really looks like.
I've said it in another post but I believe we got a jumper here. It will have trouble over Cuba making the center hard to find, then re-appear in a disorganized state over the Straits of FL / east GOM, from there it will spin up to a Cat 2/3 then hook sharply - ala Charley. In fact I'd bet Ernesto becomes know as Charley Jr when all is said and done. In the end I see a larger wind and rain field (displaced from the center), but a weaker storm wind-wise overall (in other words no Cat 4).
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hofloka
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(Verified CFHC User)
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Sun Aug 27 2006 06:14 PM
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Re: Hurricane Ernesto track
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Ernesto looks like is doing the same than Charley, but this time he might come to the tampa bay area
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Unregistered User
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(Unregistered)
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Sun Aug 27 2006 06:26 PM
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Re: Hurricane Ernesto track
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I live in the Clearwater area and it looks right now that it may come here. The area is way overdue and we have a lot of complacency here about hurricanes. It has changed so much in 36 hours, however, that once again we will just wait and see. This time, different from the past 3 years, I really do have a different kind of feeling about it. Maybe one that our luck up till now has been just too good. Maybe Cuba will just stop it in its tracks. That would be the best thing.
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chase 22
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(Weather Hobbyist)
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Sun Aug 27 2006 07:12 PM
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Re: Hurricane Ernesto track
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the Tampa Bay area
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Wxwatcher2
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(Storm Tracker)
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Mon Aug 28 2006 02:43 AM
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Re: Hurricane Ernesto track
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My guess at this point is that it skirts the SE tip of cuba and possibly comes up to the Key Largo area and then North and into the Atlantic and the Bahama's.
I have doubts that it ever makes it into the Gulf of Mexico.
This one is a real head scratcher to me.
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Rasvar
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(Weather Master)
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Mon Aug 28 2006 02:46 AM
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Re: Hurricane Ernesto track
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I am now thinking this will be an Everglades shot, out between the Ft Lauderdale and Jax and then up to give a direct hit as a major hurricane into North Carolina.
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hofloka
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(Verified CFHC User)
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Mon Aug 28 2006 02:48 AM
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Re: Hurricane Ernesto track
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Not at all crazy what you say, hopefully for tampa bay area you will be right
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Unregistered User
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(Unregistered)
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Mon Aug 28 2006 02:59 AM
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Re: Hurricane Ernesto track
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I agree with others that have posted... I think it is going to clip south FL and head out to the Atlantic.
Regarding another post about the storm coming over a persons home and that person not being happy about it; I recall the song "its the end of the world as we know it and I feel fine..."
It'll be fine - hopefully better than New Orleans anyway.
Be safe.
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Unregistered User
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(Unregistered)
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Mon Aug 28 2006 03:01 AM
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Re: Hurricane Ernesto track
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no gulf, no Florida, up the eastern seaboard
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debwire
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(Registered User)
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Mon Aug 28 2006 03:26 AM
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Hurricane Ernesto track
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I see Ernesto going over the Ft. Myers area.
I live in St. Pete and frankly, I wish no storm for any part of Florida. Any chance it could just spin fish in the Gulf and die out? 
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Nateball
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(Weather Watcher)
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Mon Aug 28 2006 03:32 AM
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Re: Hurricane Ernesto track
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Just a quick note from our local Met here in Tampa, first he says the chances are very good that cuba might kill Ernesto all together. But if it does make it out of cuba he ended his report saying that he just got a new update that the high in the atlantic might hold on more then they thought keeping Ernesto a little more west then the current track.
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Re: Hurricane Ernesto track
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Was that a BN9 met? Just curious, because they keep repeating the same thing.
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Re: Hurricane Ernesto track
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That sounds about right to me. I'm guessing that Ernesto will emerge off the northern coast of Cuba as a depression. The latest GFDL track would require significant continued westward movement, yet this weak storm seems to be oozing poleward already and I don't see anything in particular that would hinder it from continuing in that direction. Perhaps it may graze southeastern Florida as it tries to pull itself back together, but I think this will be an event for the Carolinas -- not Florida.
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Unregistered User
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(Unregistered)
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Tue Aug 29 2006 02:59 PM
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Re: Hurricane Ernesto track
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Gulf of Mexico. It will continue going North and West. Briefly hit Florida and then go into the Gulf and build up strength.
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