| Cycloneye |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Jul 12 2004 09:04 PM |
Tropical Storm Blas forms at EPAC
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http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/tropical/atlantic/models/04071300
Finnally the second tropical storm of the season has formed in the EPAC but wont be of a long duration because cooler waters await it to it's west.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Mon Jul 12 2004 09:13 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Blas forms at EPAC
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Luis,
I think we'd all agree that this one was "just a matter of time."
Blas
Looks to be short lived, but it's quite possible that Celia is right behind. If HF's notation that (deeper in the season) Atl development is 5-9 days behind, I'd say we'd have Alex by the end of the month. However, MJO and dry air, plus Saharan dust seem conspiring against it, I think at this point in time Alex may have to wait...
Still, a couple of waves to track...the atlantic a "jack in the box" just waiting to crank in August...don't think we're too quiet for too much longer.
Cheers,
LI Phil
| James88 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Jul 13 2004 06:54 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Blas forms at EPAC
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Blas is now up to 50kts. The latest advisory has it peaking at 60kts, but the discussion says that it is quite possible that the storm could make hurricane status. It looks good on satellite imagery.
| Cycloneye |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Jul 13 2004 07:51 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Blas forms at EPAC
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Agree it looks like it will reach hurricane status just before it gets into cooler waters.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Tue Jul 13 2004 09:04 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Blas forms at EPAC
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James & Luis,
Winds were up to 60 mph last I checked...it's going to be close to Hurricane status. If it does make, it will JUST make it. I'd still bet against it, but the odds aren't nearly as good as they were yesterday. Blas has maybe 24 hours before he encounters cooler waters where he will fade away fairly quickly. So, for at least one day, we have something to track.
Cheers,
LI Phil
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Tue Jul 13 2004 12:27 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Blas forms at EPAC
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Of the models, the GFDL is actually forecasting Blas to reach hurricane strength for a short period, while the UKMET is predicting a path much closer to the coast (and hence, over warmer water which could also nudge Blas to H status). Official track and progs are for a TS for 24-36 hours with a WNW track.
tracking models.
Also of note is now the models are backing off forming Celia in Blas' wake, as they were doing yesterday. I still feel there's a chance for Celia, but not a great one.
New disturbance in the WestPAC, should reach TS status and affect Taiwan down the road.
Cheers,
LI Phil
| James88 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Jul 13 2004 01:09 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Blas forms at EPAC
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Is it just me, or is Blas beginning to look a bit ragged on satellite imagery? I get the feeling that it will not get much stronger (at least judging by its current appearance). The centre also looks like it is becoming exposed.
The season out there is so quiet this year. This time in 2003 they were already on Tropical Storm Enrique. When is activity out there going to increase?
I'm more interested in the Atlantic basin, but the E. Pacific normally gives us something to watch in the early months. Not this year it seems.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Tue Jul 13 2004 01:49 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Blas forms at EPAC
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Blas is definitely looking a little more ragged, but this may be temporary. Cloud tops are getting warmer, but again, this may just be a phase. Problem is, the more he moves NW, the colder the waters beneath him become, so he may have reached peak development as we speak. He'd need to slow down and try to restrengthen or we may just have seen his best. But as I said, this could just be temporary and strengthening could still occur as the waters are still warm enough to support strengthening.
| James88 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Jul 13 2004 03:47 PM |
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Blas on the wane?
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I don't know - there is very little convection on the west side of the storm and what there is on the east appears to be fading away. I think that Blas may have peaked and that he is beginning to decay. Having said that there does seem to some convection clinging to the centre, but not enough I fear.
Even though the system is not as impressive as earlier today, it is very large.
| JasonM603 |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed Jul 14 2004 03:31 AM |
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Re: Blas on the wane?
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Blas is now beginning to weaken. There will not be any comebacks now...Blas is moving into dry air and cooling temps. One look at the latest IR will tell you that Blas is about to RIP.
Hey guys.
| James88 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Jul 14 2004 11:04 AM |
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Re: Blas on the wane?
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Despite the fact that Blas has very little convection to speak of and is moving over increasingly cooler water, he still continues to cling to tropical storm status. He will probably be downgraded to a remnant low by this time tomorrow.
Oh well, he gave us something to watch during the quiet time.