(Storm Tracker)

Tue May 17 2005 03:02 PM

90E Strengthens

new T# are 1.5/1.5

(Moderator)

Tue May 17 2005 03:20 PM

Re: 90E Strengthens

Well, you can now call it tropical depression 1 for 2005 in the E Pac. as the NRL have it as noname. Welcome to the start of a brand new season

(Storm Tracker)

Tue May 17 2005 03:29 PM

Re: 90E Strengthens

td1 first advisory 5 pm

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Tue May 17 2005 03:32 PM

Re: 90E Strengthens

check out GFDL nvest90e 2005051712 not a good thing..... suspect a td/ts in carb... in 4-6 days?

but i do remember last year.... gfdl had little trouble in the bermuda high strength/ shear too

(Storm Tracker)

Tue May 17 2005 03:42 PM

Re: 90E Strengthens

i was looking at that also same thoughts. the mountains of central america will be pretty harsh on this one so im not sure about a ts in the carib... yet...

(User)

Tue May 17 2005 03:57 PM

Re: 90E Strengthens

Good catch hr... if the NRL has this as "NONAME-E" we'll have TD1 at the next advisory...

(Meteorologist)

Tue May 17 2005 04:05 PM

Re: 90E Strengthens

Don't discount the GFDL solution just yet. Conditions are there for rapid intensification once this thing gets going, despite the direction of motion. The SSTs are very warm -- 30+ C -- in the region, shear is low, and the subtropical jet to the north will only assist in enhancing outflow while in the east Pacific. As the storm organizes and becomes better defined, we could see one round of rapid intensification before landfall, perhaps even to major hurricane status (as the GFDL calls for). I wouldn't go 125kt yet, but 100kt is possible. The people along the entire Central American coast -- Pacific and Caribbean sides -- need to watch this one. Two-three days is the time frame we're looking at, particularly the latter end of that.

As for evolution after landfall: what path the storm takes across land will determine how much survives into the Caribbean. Obviously, the narrower the path, the stronger the remnant circulation. A deep trough should be located off-shore of the U.S. coast as it re-emerges into the Caribbean, but a cut-off low over the Gulf (not the one there now, but down the road 4 days) as a ridge builds across the central Plains may interact with the storm, resulting in a deviation to the track from what we might expect. Best bet now is to go with the "flow" and call for a continued NE progression, similar to that shown in the GFDL. Shear is going to be pretty high no matter where it goes here, though, and the evolution may not end up entirely tropical as a result.

We may well get our first Atlantic May storm in nearly 25 years in the next week. I'm not going to say that it will happen for certain, but the ingredients are there to potentially see something. I'm more confident in something happening here than I was before, and I'll leave it at that for now. Watch this storm in the EPac though -- it's certainly going to affect the coast of Mexico/Cent. America pretty hard in a few days' time.

(Storm Tracker)

Tue May 17 2005 04:18 PM

Re: 90E Strengthens

taking what clark said into consieration look at the cyclone intensification potential
chart shear forcast

(Weather Master)

Tue May 17 2005 04:23 PM

Re: 90E Strengthens

Any evolving system would sure be kept south of Florida. This may simply become a Carribean problem if it does migrate, and survive the trip, across Central America Any pathway north of Jamaica would surely become a soaker for Cuba and So. Florida.

(Storm Tracker)

Tue May 17 2005 04:25 PM

Re: 90E Strengthens

the first advisory is out NHC

(Weather Hobbyist)

Tue May 17 2005 04:26 PM

TD 1-E forms

Tropical Depression One-E Advisory Number 1

Statement as of 2:00 PM PDT on May 17, 2005

...Early season depression develops southwest of Guatemala and El
Salvador...could cause torrential rains over Central America...
Interests along the Pacific coast from southeastern Mexico to El
Salvador should closely monitor the progress of this system over
the next few days.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 2 PM PDT...2100z...the center of Tropical Depression One-E was
located near latitude 9.9 north...longitude 95.0 west or about
470 miles... 760 km...west-southwest of Guatemala and El Salvador.

The depression is moving toward the east-northeast near 5 mph
... 7 km/hr...and this unusual motion is expected to continue for
the next 24 hours. On this track...outer rainbands may begin to
affect the coastal areas of Guatemala and El Salvador on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph... 55 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours...
and this system could become a tropical storm by Wednesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb...29.68 inches.

The depression is expected to move slowly northeastward...which is
not typical...over the next few days. On the forecast track...this
system has the potential to produce torrential rainfall over
portions of Central America during the next few days.

Repeating the 2 PM PDT position... 9.9 N... 95.0 W. Movement
toward...east-northeast near 5 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 35 mph. Minimum central pressure...1005 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center
at 8 PM PDT.

Forecaster Knabb/Stewart

(Storm Tracker)

Tue May 17 2005 04:27 PM

Re: 90E Strengthens

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 12.7N 91.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.

winds gusting past hurricane strenght on the 19th

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Tue May 17 2005 04:33 PM

Re: 90E Strengthens

the TWC just did a tease on tde-1.....

330cdt

(Storm Tracker)

Tue May 17 2005 05:14 PM

Re: 90E Strengthens

"coming up next the latest on the new TD in the Pacific" he he

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Tue May 17 2005 05:19 PM

Re: 90E Strengthens

not sure if this is right sat winds

(Moderator)

Tue May 17 2005 05:31 PM

Model Runs and thoughts on TD-1 (E Pac)

From my (untrained) eye, Most models are bringing *something* across into the atlantic. Now mind you, what that something is, is really up in the air. Most of the models have about a 1000mb low kinda meandering over near cuba in 144 hours or so, with the exception being the gfdl which really ramps that sucker up and then ramps it up again.

At the moment track is the key to any threat to the atlantic, a slight northern deviation and the storm spends less time over land, a slight southern deviation could end up destroying all the organization.

As far as the intensity goes, I'd wait to see a model run with a better initalization of the storm than the current model set. But the outflow looks nice, and the storm looks pretty impressive for a tropical depression. particularly with the banding features already starting to fire up, low shear, and very warm water temps. As Clark pointed out above. The storm does have a possibility to get pretty nasty.

IANAM (I am not a meterologist), but I would want to put up hurricane watches along the pacific coast of El salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras by the evening advisory.

-Mark

(Storm Chaser)

Tue May 17 2005 05:45 PM

Re: Model Runs and thoughts on TD-1 (E Pac)

The problem is, most of all models are not purely dynamic-they are more so hybrid (staticscal and dynamical). The fact that there is virtually no climatology for this storm doesn't help forecasting, but I like what the NHC is doing, although I would favor a bit higher. Just go back to your basics, it's forming in a a pool of 30 C+ waters, and no shear with aided outflow from jet above. To top it off it's moving slow! I hope this isn't a bad omen.

(Storm Tracker)

Tue May 17 2005 06:14 PM

Re: Model Runs and thoughts on TD-1 (E Pac)

since there is basically no climatology for this storm the NHC has to play it as they seem fit. Before it get to the coast i agree that the intensity forcast be raised but unless it get really strong is being more than a td when it enters the carib is not likely. remember mitch? after being in the carib for a while i would give it some chance of being fo making ts

(User)

Tue May 17 2005 08:05 PM

Re: Model Runs and thoughts on TD-1 (E Pac)

NOAA is doing some new things this season...

(Storm Tracker)

Tue May 17 2005 08:29 PM

Re: Model Runs and thoughts on TD-1 (E Pac)

they did that last season but it wasn't on the main page last season. you hd to kinda look for it

(User)

Tue May 17 2005 08:33 PM

Re: Model Runs and thoughts on TD-1 (E Pac)

Didn't know that. Good idea to put them with on the map page. Goes in hand with the drive to detract from the centerfold line /

(Storm Chaser)

Tue May 17 2005 08:48 PM

Re: Model Runs and thoughts on TD-1 (E Pac)

I must say this is undergoing some serious cyclongenesis, bands are coming together quite quickly, and a CDO is forming. Also, it has a great outflow boundary, meaning this storm is pretty deep-which makes snese b/c there's very little shear. Anywho, I would be taping the windows as we speak if I was in the path of TS Adrian.

(User)

Tue May 17 2005 08:58 PM

Re: Model Runs and thoughts on TD-1 (E Pac)

Keith� don't encourage the taping of windows on this site. It doesn�t help!

(User)

Tue May 17 2005 09:05 PM

Re: Model Runs and thoughts on TD-1 (E Pac)

Quote:

Keith� don't encourage the taping of windows on this site. It doesn�t help!

besides, the mud huts don't have windows...

but it would help keeping down flying glass and in the event that plywood or shutters were not an option, it's better than NOTHING. i don't think keith is encouraging it...merely offering up the suggestion that those in the path of adrian-to-be take whatever precautions they can...

(User)

Tue May 17 2005 09:17 PM

Re: Model Runs and thoughts on TD-1 (E Pac)

I was only joking with him. However I think that in our excitement that we all need to remember that this has the potential to kill allot of people. It torments me that I will be sitting in a theater having the best time of my life opening day for ROTS, where just across the gulf people may be dying in the midst of a landmark tropical cyclone.

EDIT: Just looked at the latest sat images. Keith is right about the CDO. In the words of Luke Skywalker... "I have a bad feeling about this".

(Storm Tracker)

Wed May 18 2005 09:27 AM

Re: Model Runs and thoughts on TD-1 (E Pac)

Lysis, we should send you down there to do some filming. Do you speak Spanish ? and did you get your H.D. camera yet ?........Weatherchef

(User)

Wed May 18 2005 05:24 PM

Re: Model Runs and thoughts on TD-1 (E Pac)

No I have not found the money to buy my camera yet. Hopefully before august roles around I will have the finances. As for my speaking Spanish, remember I used to live in Miami! But let�s stay on topic�

GDFL now has it tracking past eastern Cuba.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.c...;hour=Animation

(User)

Wed May 18 2005 05:58 PM

Re: Model Runs and thoughts on TD-1 (E Pac)

the only spanish jeffie knows is:

"consiga lejos de m� mestizo"

(Weather Hobbyist)

Wed May 18 2005 06:53 PM

Re: Model Runs and thoughts on TD-1 (E Pac)

Oigan que ustedes quieren saber en espanol?

I can translate anything that you may want to know in spanish.

(User)

Wed May 18 2005 10:49 PM

Re: Model Runs and thoughts on TD-1 (E Pac)

i guess you are saying my espanol is really poor (which it is) what was it you thought i was trying to say?

(Storm Tracker)

Thu May 19 2005 12:35 PM

Re: Model Runs and thoughts on TD-1 (E Pac)

Cycloneye11, what happened to your island yesterday or the day before? I was watching TWC and I thought I heard them say that there was a deluge of some sorts and some big time flooding or was I just dreaming? If this is so , what caused the havoc?........I hope all is well down there for our CFHC forward observer amigo.......Weatherchef

Administrator

(Moderator)

Wed Jun 01 2005 10:07 PM

Re: Adrian Update June 1. 2005

...A POST-STORM ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT ADRIAN DID NOT MAKE LANDFALL AS A HURRICANE IN EL SALVADOR EARLY ON THE 20TH... AS ASSESSED OPERATIONALLY. BASED ON EXAMINATION OF SATELLITE DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS... INCLUDING SHIP DATA OBTAINED AFTER THE EVENT... IT HAS BEEN DETERMINED THAT ADRIAN WEAKENED OFFSHORE... WITH THE
CENTER MOVING EASTWARD EARLY ON THE 20TH AND ENTERING THE GULFO DE FONSECA... JUST EAST OF EL SALVADOR... AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
THE DEPRESSION THEN MADE LANDFALL ON THE PACIFIC COAST OF HONDURAS DURING THE EVENING OF THE 20TH...
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/tws/MIATWSEP_may.shtml?

(Weather Guru)

Thu Jun 02 2005 06:18 AM

Re: Adrian Update June 1. 2005

Quote:

...A POST-STORM ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT ADRIAN DID NOT MAKE LANDFALL AS A HURRICANE IN EL SALVADOR EARLY ON THE 20TH... AS ASSESSED OPERATIONALLY. BASED ON EXAMINATION OF SATELLITE DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS... INCLUDING SHIP DATA OBTAINED AFTER THE EVENT... IT HAS BEEN DETERMINED THAT ADRIAN WEAKENED OFFSHORE... WITH THE
CENTER MOVING EASTWARD EARLY ON THE 20TH AND ENTERING THE GULFO DE FONSECA... JUST EAST OF EL SALVADOR... AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
THE DEPRESSION THEN MADE LANDFALL ON THE PACIFIC COAST OF HONDURAS DURING THE EVENING OF THE 20TH...
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/tws/MIATWSEP_may.shtml?

That certainly answers alot of questions as to why the storm appeared to have weaked so fast.

MaryAnn

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