Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Sat Jan 15 2005 05:06 PM |
Initial Outlook for 2005
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I spent a considerable amount of time on Friday examining the likely level of activity for 2005 and came to two conclusions:
1. My initial thoughts for 8/4/1 were too low, and
2. Dr Gray's preliminary numbers of 11/6/3 seem to be very realistic.
I don't really expect too much of a pattern change for the 2005 season. The ITCZ has retreated well to the south (similar to last year) and extends across northern South America toward the west northwest (also similar to last year). As the ITCZ lifts north in the Spring it will promote a slightly better chance than last year for an early season storm to form. Not a great chance, but a May or June storm will certainly be possible in the southwestern Caribbean.
My expectations on ENSO have changed considerably, and while a weak El Nino will be around for a few months, I no longer believe that it will reach moderate intensity and therefore it will not last as long. A weak El Nino may hang around for awhile but I it looks like it will not be much of an influence on the totals for the season.
Threat areas would seem to be pretty much as stated earlier with all of the Texas coast to western Louisiana in a potential danger zone - can't get any more specific on this area since it will all depend on the strength of the Atlantic ridge and the extent to which it ridges into the Gulf of Mexico. With the axis of the ridge expected to be a little further north at times (a more normal pattern), south Florida would also be at a greater risk during the upcoming season. I also expect that one or two recurving storms (sliding offshore the east coast of Florida - and jarring nerves) will pose a threat to the eastern Carolinas. So far this winter, the jetstream has been riding at a more northern latitude and if this trend continues through the summer, New England would not be a likely threat area.
My initial thoughts are for a normal summer pattern with minimal El Nino influence and not quite as hot in the Southeast as it was during the Spring and early Summer last year. With a normal pattern I would expect a more normal Cape Verde season with some long-track storms in the mid to late Summer. Best Analog years are 1958 and 1978 and, for track pattern only, 1951. My initial outlook numbers are 11/7/3.
So far, the following seasonal forecasts were made for 2005 (taken from the 2004 Storm Forum):
Dr Gray: 11/6/3
TSR: 14/8/4 (also the average for the past 10 years)
ED : 11/7/3
Clark: 13/7/3
HanKFranK: 17/11/5
Keith234: 12/6/4
LI Phil: 12/7/2
James88: 13/7/3
Heather: 14/7/4
Here is your chance to add your own thoughts and early season forecasts for the number of Named Storms/Hurricanes/Major Hurricanes. Just like last year, I'll 'freeze' the numbers around June 1st - as conditions change you can certainly revise your forecast for the season until then. Give it your best shot!
Cheers,
ED
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Sat Jan 15 2005 11:30 PM |
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Re: Initial Outlook for 2005
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Excellent analysis Ed (yeah, like I'd know), but it certainly seems reasonable in mid-January. I think we should all update our numbers in April, and then again, just before June 1. I share your thoughts about ENSO and the weak el nino not being too much of a factor. Of course, the SOI, PNA, NAO, CIA & FBI will also have to be considered.
Also a question...should we get an "off season" storm such as we had in 2003, with Ana, Odette & Peter, I know they would "officially" count towards predictions, but for our purposes here, should we only count our "in season" storms towards our totals? Just a thought, I'll leave the call up to Mr. Dunham.
Please inform the varmint his constantly changing numbers will be subject to editing this season. His 6/1/05 guess WILL remain in his signature ALL SEASON.
Thank you. Thank you very much.
Cheers,
LI Phil
Everything counts, including Subtropical Storms - no matter what the month. If we get 3 named storms before June 1st, I'd imagine that quite a few folks will be updating their numbers
ED
| Storm Cooper |
| (User) |
| Sun Jan 16 2005 12:05 AM |
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Re: Initial Outlook for 2005
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See below
... and a fine job Ed as normal!
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Jan 16 2005 10:05 PM |
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Re: Initial Outlook for 2005
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I'm predicting 15/10/6.
| javlin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Jan 17 2005 08:52 PM |
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Re: Initial Outlook for 2005
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Here it goes never made a prediction on a number yet 13/8/4.I actually like Clark's numbers but this will do.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sat Jan 22 2005 07:11 AM |
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Re: Initial Outlook for 2005
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It's an interesting setup in the Eastern Pacific right now...cooler than normal near-shore, while a bit warmer than normal towards the Nino 3-4 region(s). On the whole though, anomalies rarely exceed 1° anywhere in the basin, so whatever is out there is rather weak. It will be interesting to see how this plays out over the course of the season, though we're seeing now what will likely be the influencing factors for the beginning of the season.
I still feel confident in 13/7/3, but we'll see what happens over the course of the next few months. If the current pattern holds, we'll get a lot of fish spinners; if we retreat into the pattern of a couple of weeks ago, we'll see a lot of landfalling storms. Likely, it'll be somewhere in between. I don't have any skill in identifying that however, so I'll leave that for the others.
| Lysis |
| (User) |
| Sat Jan 22 2005 01:13 PM |
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Re: Initial Outlook for 2005
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Dr. Grays numbers seem to be the lowest. While I personally will not even hope to make a prediction for fear of bieng wrong, I thought that the NHC diddnt forcast intensity, --only location. At any rate, these varying forcast differ greatly --and this isn't the NHC. Now, I know that it is still early in the game, but could we have some reasoning with each respected forcast? Or is that not the purpose of this game? I use the term 'game' loosly, and I am in no way implying that hurricanes are a game. However, I feel that this forcasting competition has become one. To add a bit of a scientific flair to all this, I believe that anyone who dares to bet on the numbers, should include at least a little reasoning. Sorry --just had to say it.
EDIT: for example, like Clark
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Jan 24 2005 01:51 AM |
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Re: Initial Outlook for 2005
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ENSO-warm-phase subject to change as time progresses, I feel that if it is active in the summer time, that southern "jet" really will retreat the mean sub-tropical ridge, father west and north then normal.
QBO( Quasi-Biennial Oscillation)-peaked in August this year at -24 eastery phase, that tells you something...forecasted to go westerly for the next 12 months and once again peaking in late August and September only this time the opposite.
ATC (Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation)- in the strong phase for the decade at least, but subject to large fluctuation a la 2002. Probably produce some warmer then normal waters (noticeable) in the Caribbean and the GOM, usually suspects.
NAO-This year was positive at least as a mean. Really pumped the subby, thereafter steered just about every storm into the GOM Florida region...next year as a average I feel it will be positive, or just higher up - not necessarily in the mid-Atlantic coast region. Suggesting that the flow will favor recurviving storms.
Mean Development Region
Gulf of Mexico area/Caribbean sea- probably see an early storm pop up off the coast of South America ride it's way over the Yutcan and get into the Bay of Campeche (TD). See 1 major hurricane impacting the mouth of Mississippi area late July early August and then a tropical storm late in the end of September.
Florida/Southeast - not nearly as many storms as this year, 2 hurricanes storms one CAT 2 and one CAT 3 brushing the coast area on they're recurvature, but no direct hits. Maybe a tropical storm *late*, obviously too early to tell! Phew!!
OB area- I'm going to be "banging the drum" for CV systems to hit this area, only because the set up of the flow. It does along with the past record s following strong hurricanes hitting Florida. So a total of 5 storms will impact the area - three being hurricanes- two majors, Bermuda (homegrown) development (especially when negative MJO), and one tropical storm forming near the Bahamas, ala Jeanne.
New England Coast - 1 tropical storm, with significant coastal flooding and beach erosion from every storm, especially CV systems that partially touch land, in the middle of the season.
Eastern Atlantic- Two TD’s form become “Fish spinners” recurve in late July.
Month by Month
June- early storm,* relatively* quiet. Many people will anticipate the first hurricane too early and try and develop things that have no physical chance! Late June, waves start picking up one may develop by the end of June, track into July.
July- active with 2 of the major hurricanes impacting the Florida/GOM area, MJO starting to drop negative by the end of the month. Homegrown development in GOM very early, affecting Texas.
August- Very active (once again) with no respite as the “Wave train” reaches a maximum, and MJO hits the bottom. NAO positive with some minor changes. OB get's all their majors!
September - Slowing down, but GOM and Florida get some action, with a sudden deja vu of last year. Though only 2 storms, they will be the strongest of the season when on approach to Florida, devastation occurs in Bahamas yet again.
October/November- Wave gets blocked by ridge dropping down, briefly but enough to significantly recurve the system. Rides up coast near miss on OB but just brushes the Delmarva peninsula at moving at a speed over 30 mph. Polar Votex sets up in Eastern Canada...winter pattern predominate and hurricane season ends in a brusque manner.
In conclusion...I’m calling for 12 Storms... 4 majors, 2 non-majors, 3 Tropical Storms, and three TD. As Clark said, nothing out of the ordinary...this is just preliminary!
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Thu Jan 27 2005 04:24 AM |
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Re: Initial Outlook for 2005
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geez keith. guess i shouldn't go to disney world this july.
i'm gonna leave the six-month lead individual storm forecasting to keith.. reckon i'll just explain my numbers as lysis suggests we who wish to qualify them should. very well.
my numbers are crazy high.. 17/11/5. it's a departure from my old strategy of going with high-average numbers.. which worked well in the late '90s and to a lesser degree the last couple of years. last year i interpreted the warm ENSO conditions in the pacific to mean a slightly inhibited season.. which was every bit reasonable.. but the result was another 15 system year with a couple of marginal systems that nearly pushed the numbers higher.. and five major hurricanes. all five of these major hurricanes affected the u.s. (two weren't major at the time though). so, the first year i've predicted and gone low, we get what is probably the landmark year of the decade. natural.
so anyway, what is different about this year. ENSO is doing roughly the same thing.. i believe tilting back to neutral. so using 2003/2004 type numbers. don't think the truncated october that we had last year will happen in '05. i like the idea of a 2003-like, spread season. odds are always for a system prior to august. one of the big questions i have in mind is whether we'll go back to a segment, mjo-driven season. 2004 wasn't that sort of year.. mjo just didn't do much to affect the temporal distribution of systems.
this is outside of sheer numbers, but the one other thing i'm pondering is what effects el nino had on the mean global circulation in august/september last year. ridging persisted on the japanese and u.s. coasts and drove storm after storm westward into them. the ENSO warm event was mostly a western and central pacific event.. which has happened some in recent years. but the cool water spike off peru was essentially gone.. i wonder if that tipped the scales and shifted that notorious saving-grace of an east coast trough inland, and brought the storm track west with it. doubt i'll be able to write my thesis paper on it.. but if i ever go for a doctorate.. oh i'll worry about that later.
i'll probably adjust my numbers down later.. i've finally conceded and given up my shred of pride in having outpredicted with a december forecast the june numbers from more official sources for a few seasons.. but of course that was mostly luck. when i have a better feel for the pulse of things, later in the spring, i'll probably tweak them a little. but i don't think they'll come down much. i'm betting '05 will be another active one.. but active seasons aren't always bad. it's not how many form this season, it's whose door they come knocking on.
HF 0328z27january
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Jan 27 2005 05:12 PM |
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Re: Initial Outlook for 2005
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just a educated guess, why not go all out now. the water profile in the atlantic is starting to heat up...NAO is going negaitive, blocking is developing. Your right HF it is much to early to determine things, spring we will have a better pic...and will be able to time the indices better. Had a blizzard a couple days ago, nasty weather...
| Luis Martinez |
| (Registered User) |
| Fri Jan 28 2005 01:54 PM |
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Re: Initial Outlook for 2005
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Cycloneyes outlook is 12/7/3 but I will elaborate more in april when I have more data to say by then if those numbers I have will stay the same or I have to go up or down.I am glad to see my old friends again.
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Fri Jan 28 2005 08:00 PM |
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Re: Initial Outlook for 2005
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All this is very interesting, esp. the educated analysis of Clark and Ed...I see nothing in any thing said so far to go to far from the guru Dr. Gray.
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Jan 29 2005 05:00 PM |
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Re: Initial Outlook for 2005
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hey, the farmer's almanac does it. but this is just for fun...the real stuff comes later.
| Lysis |
| (User) |
| Tue Feb 01 2005 10:41 PM |
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Re: Initial Outlook for 2005
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I think that my cat is more weather wise than the farmer's almanac
it's not how many form this season, it's whose door they come knocking on.
You speak the truth!
| Matthurricane |
| (Registered User) |
| Mon Feb 07 2005 02:31 AM |
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Re: Initial Outlook for 2005
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I will make a guest at the Number!!!
15 named storms
7 hurricanes
4 Maj hurricanes
2 Landfalling hurricanes
3 Landfalling tropical storms!!!
great guest. -HF
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Tue Feb 08 2005 05:57 AM |
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early trend?
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a familiar-looking spike of cool SSTs near the galapagos has started asserting itself in the last couple of weeks. it's early to say anything yet, could be transient.... just watch it into the spring. we've had neutral to moderate el nino conditions since 2002, so things ought to swing back to ENSO cold before too many more months go by anyway.. with a cold-natured PDO template to work against, i don't think we'll have too many strong or persistent el nino's for the next decade or two.
HF 0450z08february
| Spike |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Feb 11 2005 01:09 AM |
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Re: Initial Outlook for 2005
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I know it's not really a good thing to want an active season, but I really enjoy tracking storms, I hope we have an active season with minimum dammage and no loss of life.
| Storm Cooper |
| (User) |
| Fri Feb 11 2005 01:24 AM |
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Re: Initial Outlook for 2005
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We will have what we have and run with that.... about all we can do.
| Lysis |
| (User) |
| Fri Feb 11 2005 03:29 PM |
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Re: Initial Outlook for 2005
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I dont know what I want anymore.
| JustMe |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Feb 14 2005 05:05 PM |
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Re: Initial Outlook for 2005
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Numbers
13/8/4
will be an interesting year as always.
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Feb 22 2005 10:13 PM |
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Re: Initial Outlook for 2005
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When you think about, what could be some differences from last year that could have affected hurricane activity and landfall? I remember last year we had a relatively dry May- which would be conducive to a similar placement of Upper air features. The ENSO is fickle-but by the looks of things seems to be going neutral. Also factor in the cycle we're in, the time period from the late 40's and 50's and it seems like a active season has over a 50% chance of happening.
| twisted-weather |
| (Registered User) |
| Wed Mar 16 2005 02:13 AM |
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Re: early trend?
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Hello all. My nam is Harry and i have used the handle KingOfWeather and Wxman70@ the wwbb which a few here i see should know already.
I will be issuing my Outlook for the season in a couple of weeks on my site which i encourage all to check out. I go by Harry_KOW on there. It's very detailed and as well has a very good proven track record as well.
In short right now i expect another active season and like the originator of this thread stated i am as well heavly favoring the western GOM states from about LA westward. Anyways alot more to be added soon.
Great board/site here. I look forward to discussing the systems with all here!
| Beaujolais |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed Mar 16 2005 01:48 PM |
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Re: early trend?
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Quote:
Hello all. My nam is Harry and i have used the handle KingOfWeather and Wxman70@ the wwbb which a few here i see should know already.
I will be issuing my Outlook for the season in a couple of weeks on my site which i encourage all to check out. I go by Harry_KOW on there. It's very detailed and as well has a very good proven track record as well.
In short right now i expect another active season and like the originator of this thread stated i am as well heavly favoring the western GOM states from about LA westward. Anyways alot more to be added soon.
Great board/site here. I look forward to discussing the systems with all here!
Please keep us informed as you go along. I live like 10-15 minutes away from the beautiful city of New Orleans. Cause any Cane that hits us from the South is bad and if a Cane hits to our West, depending on size and strength, we would naturally be on the East side of the Cane, which we all know is the "WET" side of it!! Like I said before please keep us informed and please advise. Thank You so very kindly in advance.
| Katie |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Mar 18 2005 12:36 AM |
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Re: Initial Outlook for 2005
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Add me in 11/7/2
| B.C.Francis |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Mar 19 2005 10:01 PM |
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Re: early trend?
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We in central Florida should watch the so called" Bermuda High" this summer. If it shifts more to the west we might be in for some trouble. I pray that it shifts more to the east. The space coast doesn`t need another summer like 2004...I`ve been using U M Weather web site for the last five years and I`m happy to have a site to go to that is from my local. Thanks for letting me join....B.C.F.