The weak El Nino of Winter 2004-2005 is still alive and kicking and is responsible for Florida's late season cold fronts. It appears to me that El Nino will continue to linger into the first half of the summer season. It’s attendant west to east wind shear should act to
prevent any significant tropical cyclone formation in the Gulf Of Mexico and the western Caribbean Sea until August. From August onward Dr. Gray’s forecast numbers seem reasonable to me.

The barrage of 5 tropical cyclones to strike Florida in 2004 was no fluke. A large colder than normal pool of water east of Florida acted to pull the Bermuda high pressure ridge further south and west in the long term shutting of the storm recurving corridor east of the state. The end result was an open corridor across the state.

That colder than normal pool of water is still in existence. See it at http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.5.10.2005.gif . This will act to give Florida a higher than normal tropical cyclone landfall probability again this season.

Take Care,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
kn4lf@arrl.net

SWFWMD Rainfall Observer #574
NWS Tampa Bay, FL SKYWARN Observer #HIL-249

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