| Cycloneye11 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri May 27 2005 07:35 AM |
Dr Gray increases his numbers=15/8/4
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http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/2005/june_zzz/june05.html
My reaction to his update is.
He ups the numbers primary due to the warm sst's in the tropical atlantic and the lack of el nino.So folks let's be prepared and hoping for the best.
| B.C.Francis |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri May 27 2005 08:05 AM |
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Re: Dr Gray increases his numbers=15/8/4
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Looks like a very interesting summer coming up for us. I wonder who`s in for a spanking this year. Time will tell. Like Cy said " BE PREPARED "...Weatherchef
| rmbjoe1954 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri May 27 2005 02:41 PM |
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Re: Dr Gray increases his numbers=15/8/4
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I guess we will know soon enough..so be prepared.
SkeetoBite
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| (Master of Maps) |
| Fri May 27 2005 08:04 PM |
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Re: Dr Gray increases his numbers=15/8/4
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Animated SST comparison - May 26, 2004 to May 26, 2005
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SkeetoBite
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| (Master of Maps) |
| Fri May 27 2005 10:31 PM |
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Re: Dr Gray increases his numbers=15/8/4
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The following link will take you to a PDF file download of an analysis of the June 1st forecasts by Dr. Gray for each season compared to the actual observations for the entire season for each period since 1999. Note that this overview also includes the revised June 1, 2005 numbers, however, the revised 2005 forecast numbers are not included in the averages calculated for each category.
This file includes a variance report (from forecast) of the June 1st forecast numbers, several charts and the final two pages are the raw data.
Since our focus is the graphical dissemination of data, no effort was made to prepare a synopsis beyond our observation of the trend that Dr. Gray tends to be conservative in his forecasts.
http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/analysis/dr_gray.pdf
| Prospero |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri May 27 2005 10:35 PM |
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Re: Dr Gray increases his numbers=15/8/4
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Your animated SSI comparison is quite effective.
She heatin' up, that's for sure.
Whoa nelly!
| Prospero |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri May 27 2005 10:39 PM |
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Re: Dr Gray increases his numbers=15/8/4
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Ummm, I mean SST comparison.
| ftlaudbob |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Sat May 28 2005 11:09 AM |
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Re: Dr Gray increases his numbers=15/8/4
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He is good!!!!
| RedingtonBeachGuy |
| (Moderator) |
| Sun May 29 2005 03:08 AM |
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Re: Dr Gray increases his numbers=15/8/4
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Nice work SkeetoBite.. have you considered doing some research/graphs of the time when they have hit? In other words, how many Cat 1 have hit Florida in June, Cat 2 in June, etc.. Cat 1 in July, Cat 2 in July, etc.. all the way thru the year?
New site showing probabilities of exposure in 2005:
http://hurricane.methaz.org/
I loved the mapping they have done and some of their links.. I could zoom right into a 20 mile path around my home and see every cain that had passed by my property over the last 100 years, the wind speed, even the flooding.
OT: BTW, has anyone seen Storm Stopper's panels?
http://storm-stoppers.com/
If so, thoughts?
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SkeetoBite
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| (Master of Maps) |
| Sun May 29 2005 08:52 AM |
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Re: Dr Gray increases his numbers=15/8/4
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Quote:
Nice work SkeetoBite.. have you considered doing some research/graphs of the time when they have hit? In other words, how many Cat 1 have hit Florida in June, Cat 2 in June, etc.. Cat 1 in July, Cat 2 in July, etc.. all the way thru the year?
If so, thoughts?
We are preparing a database driven analysis of the 275 known hurricanes to have impacted the united states between 1851 and 2004. This project is nearly complete and will include:
- date info
- storm name (if any) strength at landfall
- U.S. State(s) affected and category for each state affected for each storm
- maximum winds in kts and mph
- minimum central pressure
- a brief narrative
- Storm track map
Obviously, once you have all the data, you can sort and crunch it any way you like. We will provide multiple sort and search options. Once this project is complete, it will be available on our website. I will post the link as soon as testing is done.
| Cycloneye11 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun May 29 2005 07:48 PM |
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Re: Dr Gray increases his numbers=15/8/4
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Very interesting to see all of that when it gets out so I can't wait.