Ed Dunham
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(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
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Sun Jul 03 2005 03:34 AM
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Area of Interest - East of Barbados
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Small but active easterly wave near 12.5N 52.5W at 03/00Z moving west at 10-12 knots. Systems remains disorganized, however, wind shear is light and generally expected to remain light as the wave moves to the west. Some slow development of this system is possible over the next few days.
Cheers,
ED
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Re: Area of Interest - East of Barbados
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I mentioned this in the am w. DW, you are referring to what MM5 is showing 120 hrs out over Jamaica?
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danielw
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(Moderator)
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Sun Jul 03 2005 04:59 AM
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Re: Area of Interest - East of Barbados
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Okay, the new Tropical Genesis models are out, with the exception of the FSU MM5.
The area that Ed mentioned above is one of the three areas the MM5 is progging. The model is 18 hours old right now so it's hard to say what it was 'seeing'.
It does indicate something of a vortice along the longitude of Jamaica. Depending on which model run you view.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
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rmbjoe1954
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(Weather Master)
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Sun Jul 03 2005 09:37 AM
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NW Caribbean
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This area looks like it's ready to explode into something at any time today.
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Unregistered User
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(Unregistered)
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Sun Jul 03 2005 09:27 PM
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Re: NW Caribbean
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SSEC Wind Shear Analysis - Western Atlantic
(Whenever possible, please try to use links rather than direct images. This is helpful to reduce load time and is very important when the site gets busy because of storm activity.
Thanks, ED)
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Ed Dunham
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(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
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Mon Jul 04 2005 12:30 PM
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Re: Area of Interest - East of Barbados
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This tropical wave has become much better organized over the past 24 hours and a weak circulation center may be forming just east of Grenada at 12N 61W at 04/11Z. Movement is to the west or west northwest at 15 knots. The GFS model moves this system to the northwest and paints a rather ominous picture for Florida this weekend. While this system is still disorganized and is still many days away from any threat to the U.S., it is certainly a system that needs to be watched closely this week. Additional development of this tropical system seems likely.
ED
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Re: Area of Interest - East of Barbados
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gfs and euro are latched onto this thing. if it develops in the next 48 hrs it's going to spell trouble. just keep your fingers crossed that it scrapes westward along the venezuela coast and doesn't get organized.. nothing good is going to happen if it consolidates.
HF 1614z04july
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doug
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(Weather Analyst)
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Mon Jul 04 2005 08:26 PM
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Re: Area of Interest - East of Barbados
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both should be upgraded before tomorrow am
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Re: Area of Interest - East of Barbados
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H.F. you sound a little nervous about this wave. It does look very very interesting. Could the future tropical storm in the gulf drag the system up toward Florida ? It looks like theres a good chance of it to intensify, and plenty of warm water to help it grow....Where`s Clark ?, he knows the scoop.....Wow! July is off to a good start and the two monster months to come. Who`s going to win and who`s going to loose in the 2005 Hurricane Landfall game is the biggest wonderment in the back of all of are minds. We can only play the game and hope that the dice land in our favor..........Gotta a feeling there`s going to be a lot of talk about tropical weather come fall time, I pray my coast and neighborhood are not part of that conversation ...........Weatherchef
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Kevin
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(Weather Master)
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Mon Jul 04 2005 09:34 PM
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Re: Area of Interest - East of Barbados
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The high pressure ridge is forecast to weaken and slide eastward as more extensive troughiness/low pressure develops over the central part of the US towards the middle of this week. Whatever is in the Caribbean should begin to move more northerly on that alone. And yes, the remnants of TD3/Cindy will help weaken the outer portion of the Bermuda High even more. There may be some slight similarities to TD3 and the E. Carib wave and Bonnie/Charley last year. 97L is definitely something to keep an eye. A few of the forecasting models have even suggested the potential for a significant hurricane approaching Florida by the weekend.
It's watch and wait for now. I'm out...
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Re: Area of Interest - East of Barbados
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Just for the halibut (notice the non curse word ?), what side of Florida do you think ?..Looks more east side to me, down near the Keys and south Florida....Who knows...Some thing to really keep an eye on though.........I can feel the adrenaline flowing already just knowing what the possibilties for the next few days are with this system........Eyes to the south east mates.......Weatherchef
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Kevin
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(Weather Master)
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Tue Jul 05 2005 04:10 AM
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Re: Area of Interest - East of Barbados
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Right now, I'm thinking the western side of Florida. Also, the small differences in the 4 and 5 day positions from NHC will make a big difference as to where the system really is. By Thursday, Floridians (hopefully) will be able to make an informed decision on how to prepare for TD 4.
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Lysis
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(User)
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Tue Jul 05 2005 11:13 AM
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Re: Area of Interest - East of Barbados
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It is difficult to believe that, realistically, I may have to prepare for a hurricane by the end of this week. I suppose we better hurry up and get the roof on. 
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Liz
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(Weather Watcher)
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Tue Jul 05 2005 12:43 PM
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Re: Area of Interest - East of Barbados
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I know what you mean. My shingles where just delivered last week and I know they will not be installed by this weekend. This system feels like a "Charley" 
Liz
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ftlaudbob
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(Storm Chaser)
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Tue Jul 05 2005 01:26 PM
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Re: Area of Interest - East of Barbados
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Well ,right now everyone from the gulf coast over to the east coast of Fl.,Will have to watch this one.It is just to early to know where she will end up.Anyone know the last time we had 4 named storms this early?It's time to get in the seat and fast'ën your seatbelts,it going to be a very bumpy ride.
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Re: Area of Interest - East of Barbados
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I tell you one thing, if I lived in the Keys, I`d be getting prepared for some action. If the storm moves west of there they still have to deal with the northern and the eastern side of the hurricane, generally are the most aggressive qaudrants in any storm. Actually, its a little early to tell exactly where its heading , things chould change with every update. The southern end of Florida on both sides should be ready for action just in case they become a target......Wow and its just the first week of July...........Weatherchef
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Ryan
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(Storm Tracker)
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Tue Jul 05 2005 07:56 PM
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Re: Area of Interest - East of Barbados
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i don't think the keys or southern florida will be hit, they could get some outer bands or moisture, but if i lived anywhere from Panama City to Pensacola to Mobile to even Gulfport, MIssissippi i'd be keeping a very close eye on Dennis The Menice over the next few days.
Good Luck Gulf Coasters.
.Ryan.
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Re: Area of Interest - East of Barbados
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I don`t know if this is true, but I was under the belief that when tropical systems generally hit the eastern Carribbean Sea this time of the year that historically they tend to fizzle out until they hit the Gulf or western Caribbean until now. I know I read about this sometime ago , I just don`t know where......?????????...Weatherchef
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Kevin
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(Weather Master)
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Tue Jul 05 2005 10:51 PM
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Re: Area of Interest - East of Barbados
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Looks like my Dennis ideas are now rather outdated. Earlier yesterday, many of the models showed a track into the FL Peninsula...now they are further west. Today's model runs have also formed an amazing consensus...dead towards the north Gulf Coast. Model agreement like that is hard to argue with, and I'm not going to argue against the models myself.
Unfortunetly, the intensity trends have been pointing upwards since yestearday. Dennis is really one to watch. Even thought I was expecting a strong hurricane season, I never would have thought that we would be seeing a threat like this in early July. 
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Lysis
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(User)
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Wed Jul 06 2005 12:27 AM
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Re: Area of Interest - East of Barbados
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Well, think back to Charley, where the models oscillated between a northern and southern landfall. People are invariably hyped up about this, but what we need to watch out for is trends. One thing I do know that this area really doesn't need a big hurricane now, as people are still living in FEMA trailers.
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Re: Area of Interest - East of Barbados
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Yo Lysis, with the model runs I`ve looked at, I think your area will be spared. But like you say, osillations on the projected model paths could change everything real quick. I`m not worried over here on the east coast, but if I lived on your side I`d be watching 24/7..and if if I lived in the panhandle I`d be putting my ducks in row and preparing for the worst and hoping for the best. A cat 3 landfall up there will put them back in the dark ages......And this is just the start for all of us. Looks like our state is in for a spanking again this year..........Good luck over there on the west coast and you people on the south east gulf coasts my thoughts are with you...Weatherchef
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adogg76
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(Weather Hobbyist)
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Fri Jul 08 2005 03:19 PM
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Re: Area of Interest - East of Barbados
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OKOK....All eyes are on Dennis.....What is this new wave east of the Lower Antilles??? And another following that??? The second wave was very impressive yesterday coming off of Africa.....I am not a Pro, so lets get the jump on these next two as well....if that is indeed the case!!
The wave just east is starting to show some development signs, IMHO!!!
Since we are "fairly" certain that Dennis will be mainly a west Florida event, maybe the people at the Melbourne NWC could start looking ahead as well........
Weren't there supposed to be some new technological advances in model forecasting this year that would extend warining time to 5-7 days???
Also, there are many odd signs in nature, that lead me to believe an event is close......it is unbearably HUMID.....the clouds are coming....bugs EVERYWHERE....I know it is normal for Florida to have bugs, of all types.....actually our bugs down here are quite ummmmmm...monstrous!!! But too see all these bugs out and about, and low.......slugs or snails climbing the walls......
No Beach Weekend!!!
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Re: Area of Interest - East of Barbados
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The storm season ahs been a heavy one. And when all of the storms Ivan, Charley, Frances, and Bonnie came in , that was September. This is July...! So yuo never know, the Atlantic may run out of storms if there are many hurricanes in July all the way up to September.
Emily seems to be moving westernly. It is still uncertain.
I do not know the last time there was this many storms in the Atlantic in July. It is going to be a disaster this Hurricane Season. Everyone needs to be prepared and if evacuations are put out, they need to follow becuase you never know what any of these Tropical Systems are going to do?
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