| Ryan |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Aug 07 2005 03:48 PM |
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Tropical Storm Irene Forms
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another onee on our handss..winds of Irene are at 40 mph with a pressure of 1005mb located at 20.5N 45.5W moving west-northwest at 9 MPH
| Ryan |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Aug 07 2005 03:54 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms
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what do people think she'll do, turn off to sea, affect northeast, affect canada, or what?
-Ryan
| Kevin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Aug 07 2005 04:32 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms
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I think Irene will turn out to sea. I'm fairly certain of that now. The persistent northerly center reformations that have occured over the last day or so have effectively killed any chance of Irene coming westward. I had some small doubts about recurvature yesterday, but the recent events have satisfied those doubts.
To be very honest, Irene's chances of a US landfall ended on Friday morning. The increasing shear and significant center reformation (12 N to nearly 17 N) ended any major US threat from Irene. To add to that, a storm in the process of recurving along with a storm developing in the deep tropics generally isn't a good pattern for the developing system to get very far west. The stage needs to be clear, so to speak.
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Sun Aug 07 2005 05:57 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms
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franklin, harvey and irene going out in the central atlantic may be establishing one of the recurvature pathways in the atlantic. that persisting through the expected active span with mjo may be a good thing. then again the basin is showing signs of a pattern change, so it may be a whole different ballgame in another week.
HF 1757z07august
| Kevin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Aug 07 2005 06:12 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms
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NAO can also provide helpful clues as to what the ridging in the western Atlantic will be like. Two different forms of modelling that I look at:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index_mrf.html
(MRF)
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/new.nao_index_ensm.html
(Ensemble)
As far as the ensemble goes, looks like we're split between negative or positive NAO. Guess we'll find out...
| Multi-Decadal Signal |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Aug 07 2005 07:05 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms
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"that persisting through the expected active span with mjo may be a good thing." I checked the several glossorys but couldn't find a definition of MJO. Anyone help please?
| Lysis |
| (User) |
| Sun Aug 07 2005 08:19 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms
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MJO is the Madden-Julian Oscillation
Good faq on what exactly that means from the cpc:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/intraseasonal_faq.html
Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 02:40 AM |
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Brief Thoughts on Irene
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The circulation behind departing (or looping?) extratropical Harvey and an upper level low near 33N 31W are building a ridge southward along 55W. This will place TD Irene under some northerly shear. An upper level high (300mb) is expected to cut off near 20N 60W. If Irene can survive the shear it will be interesting to see if this developing ridge will force her on more of a westerly or even west southwesterly course for the next two or three days. The shear is forecast to slowly weaken and the dry air ahead of her to modify with time. If she can survive the next couple of days, Irene could be around for quite some time.
Cheers,
ED