| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Thu May 04 2006 04:21 AM |
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may updates
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hey all you folks who posted pre-season forecasts back in the winter: time to make our may updates. what with the developments in el nino and atlantic ssts some of you might want to adjust your season forecasts. or knock those crazy numbers exceeding 2005 down into reality, maybe?
post your updated numbers in this thread and i'll chunk them all together with the adjustments from earlier. if you didn't post in december, just tack your numbers on anyway. if you don't update or don't want to update that's fine, too.. i'll just keep your december numbers.
as an extra feel free to toss in your guess at the date the first named storm forms. we'll go with the date it gets named doesn't go to storm strength the day the depression forms. subtropical storms count.
forecast deadline is tuesday, may 30th, right ahead of the klotzbach/gray season kickoff issue.
i'll start it off: 18/12/6, a shift up to the crowd from nov/dec. call me bandwagon. i'll feel dumb if 14/9/4 verifies.
first storm, may 23. that'll be the day.
HF 0420z04may
| Evil Jeremy |
| (Registered User) |
| Thu May 04 2006 02:43 PM |
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Re: may updates
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19 Tropical Storms} 1 subtropical
10 Hurricanes
6 Major
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
First Storm: Anywhere withen 2 weeks. GFS is showing a system in the GOM in a week.
Landfall Forecast:
June-July: A weak hurricane will probaly hit Mexico, while a TS will it somewhere in the Guld of Mexico.
August: A Cat1-2 hurricane will strike the centreal East coast, while the FL Keys are threatened by a small hurricane or TS.
September: S. Florida is threatned once, and so is the panhandle of FL.
October: S. Texas gets their Due, and so does the Tampa area with a TS. Florida will get another suprise hit from the south.
November: all gets quiet with a Tropical Storm coming up from nowhere and hiting the Carribean.
About 5 of these storms will affect the Carribean, and 2 of them will affect the Bahamas. 75% chance that the FL. East Coast will get hit. 55% Chance that the Carolinas will get hit.
| firestar_1 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu May 04 2006 02:46 PM |
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Re: may updates
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My original numbers were: 20/8/3 on dec 1. And I will go ahead and adjust these numbers to 18/10/5. As for the first named storm, I will go with May 16.
| Psyber |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu May 04 2006 03:13 PM |
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Re: may updates
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I posted mine late in another forum because honestly, I was so sick and tired of seeing hurricanes last december, I just put everything down and walked away for a bit.
Anyways, i'm sticking with my april forcast:
21/11/5...i'm an odd fellow so my numbers are all going to be odd.
First Named Storm: July 6
Personal note: what are the chances of them they retiring PATTY just because it's an icky name and putting 'Psyber' in it's place?
they'll make that replacement right after replacing michael with meatwad. besides, isn't psyber a 'male' name? wrong gender for that slot. -HF
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri May 05 2006 03:03 AM |
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Re: may updates
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Back in Nov/Dec/whenever, I went with 15/9/4. Now I'm going to go with 15/9/5.
Date of first storm: oh, give me June 27th
| Nateball |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri May 05 2006 08:21 PM |
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Re: may updates
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Hello everyone my name is Nate and hurricane's are a major hobby of mine. I hope to learn a lot from this forum and from all of you. I joined the forum last year but didnt chat much but this year I'm looking forward to learning more and more about hurricanes and forcasting. As far as this year Im guessing 21/12/7 with the first storm coming May 29th.
| Hurricane Fredrick 1979 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri May 05 2006 11:46 PM |
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Re: may updates
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My Dec forecast was 23/10/7. I will revise my May forecast to 20/14/5.
I am still looking for a landfall from Gavelston, Tx to Tallahassie, Fl. This is based on a possible nutural La Nina warmer that normal SST's. IMO
| Enrique |
| (Registered User) |
| Sat May 06 2006 02:33 AM |
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Re: may updates
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My original numbers were: 22/12/6; I'll modify to 19/9/4.
| CaneTrackerInSoFl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon May 08 2006 09:18 PM |
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Re: may updates
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I'll move my numbers up to 16/8/5
I want to say the first storm of the season will come around June 22nd and then it is quiet until mid July.
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon May 08 2006 10:25 PM |
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Re: may updates
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Last year I did not think a serious hurricane would bother Florida overly much and unless one considered Wilma to be a real nusance we did not have a serious hurricane. The news media was less than reliable here in Central Florida as to what was happening with Wilma to our south.
This year I am feeling a dread of at least one of our Gulf of Mexico storms putting a world of hurt on the Florida Peninsula this year. The reasons are not noticeably different from 2004. Fireweather and drying winds have placed us very vulnerable to sudden flooding with trees and sinksholes etc. I have also noticed an unusual critter activity this spring. We have some kind of flies that are really a nusance and the store repellents are not even making them wet, much less killing them. My birds are laying eggs about once every two weeks or more often. Its like they are stocking up on family members. I don't care how many numbers of hurricanes form, it only takes the one to finish off the job that was started by the 3 muskateers in 2004. I keep saying to any one who comments about the Northeast being in the line of hurricane landfall this year, most cold fronts dip down from the west, into the Gulf and then ride back up to the Northeast. There is nothing to prevent a hurricane from doing that either. Florida is not wide enough to slow a Katrina size storm down at all. Especially if the storm takes on subtropical characteristics and does not respond to cooler water temperatures or the position of the Gulf stream. Numbers of storms? 19/5major one or two Cat 5 where and when I don't know. All I know for sure is that Texas and Lousianna started off pretty dry last year. Florida is pretty dry this year and very much more windy than I seem to remember.
| Multi-Decadal Signal |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed May 10 2006 11:36 AM |
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Re: may updates
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Going with the Fibonacci Series. 21-13-(8-2} except for a reduction in majors. Hopefully the 2 less will be those slated for the Gold Coast.
(Use the PM capability for personal messages)
| madmumbler |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed May 10 2006 07:53 PM |
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Re: may updates
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Oh duh...
My guess 19/9/5
May 29th.
Lesli.
| Doombot! |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu May 11 2006 04:26 AM |
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Re: may updates
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I'll play....
16/9/5 (with 2 major US landfalls)
"A" storm July 17th
| tpratch |
| (Moderator) |
| Fri May 12 2006 02:59 AM |
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Re: may updates
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*dusts off login*
I got sucked into soccer full time not too long after Wilma and threw my hands in the air around Gamma.
Accordingly I never posted my feelings on this season.
20/11/5
I'm not even going to touch landfalls
*waves hello to everyone*
First storm will be June 17th.
| harmlc.ath.cx |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri May 12 2006 05:58 PM |
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Re: may updates
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22/14/6
First storm will be July 16th.
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Fri May 12 2006 06:21 PM |
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Re: may updates
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I said I wouldn't change my numbers after Dec unless we had some subtropical storms, and I'll stick to that.
First named storm? Ummm...not 'til July 1st. I picked the beginning of a holiday weekend, so if Mother Nature will oblige, I'll have time to watch it inbetween the picnic at the lake. :-) Let's just say it's my way of being patriotic. Probably not the first pick of anyone who happens to be a professional met specializing in tropical weather! Who would want to work on a big holiday weekend.
Of course that's probably the worst date to pick. If we have an early start to the season, that would mean a June date (HF what were you thinkin' there with the end of May), but if we have a normal start to the season, it'll be further out in July.
Do I have a reason for picking July? Not really -- no expertise to do so. But look at the jet stream position over the ATL and all the shear. And even if the ITCZ has kicked off, it's still below 5N. And SSTs not anywhere near last year. And the mother lode of warm water in the NW Carib is cooling down lately (what's that all about). And it's 40 degrees and raining here in MSP today. Summer's going to take her time showing up.
| dave foster |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri May 12 2006 09:20 PM |
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Re: may updates
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Never made a prediction in December so, here goes.
I don't believe all the doom-sayers that this year is going to be very bad. So, I'll go with 12/8/2.
Earliest Storm:
I'll be in Florida all June and July, so I'll say August 1st at the earliest
| Tak |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sat May 13 2006 11:08 AM |
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Re: may updates
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Sticking with 18 / 13 / 6 and hope I am wrong. First NS 7/16
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat May 13 2006 12:31 PM |
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Re: may updates *DELETED*
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Post deleted by Ed Dunham
| Cycloneye11 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat May 13 2006 01:59 PM |
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Re: may updates
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My final numbers are 15/9/4.First storm on June 18.
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat May 13 2006 03:47 PM |
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Re: may updates
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I forgot to predict when I thought first named storm would occur. I believe that would be the 2nd week in August. for 2 reasons.
1) People are NOT complacent this year. I already have people asking me what I think at work.
2) It is still very cool for nearly the middle of May here in Central Florida.( Don't ask the construction workers).
The moisture is not consistent over land or even near land.
3) Unless there is more than usual political derrier covering, they will not be quick to name storms that are far away(not in Gulf of Mexico) to save the names for the threatening ones.
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sat May 13 2006 09:39 PM |
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Re: may updates
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Ha ha. I posted a date yesterday just to get in the spirit of the thing, and had no idea I'd be looking at my first tropical wave of the season today! HF, did you have a crystal ball? Shear ahead of the wave is dropping off and there is even a chance it may make it into the Carib. If it does then something could get cooking.
Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Sat May 13 2006 11:39 PM |
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Re: may updates
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Minor adjustment to 15/9/2 with first named storm on 7/23.
ED
| Storm Cooper |
| (User) |
| Sat May 13 2006 11:52 PM |
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Re: may updates
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I will stay with 14/6/4. First named on June 3rd. 8 days off. Not too bad
| MrSpock |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun May 14 2006 12:53 AM |
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Re: may updates
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I am on record at another site for 20/12/6.
My first US landfall was July 12th.
My thoughts have been for the greater threats this year being on the EC, due to my expected conditions this year.
| Kevin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun May 14 2006 07:00 PM |
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Re: may updates
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Howdy
I'll go with 15/9/5; first storm on June 25.
| Wingman51 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed May 17 2006 08:57 PM |
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Re: may updates
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OK - - Here Goes - - sound like 2004 all over again - - so 19/10/6 with the first named storm in the second week of June. :?:
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Fri May 19 2006 11:56 AM |
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Re: may updates
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I'll keep my numbers the same. Scientifically, osscilations in patterns tend not to be extreme from year to year. However, with fairly average SSTs, I believe it won't be quite as active as last year. The cool spring won't affect mid-late season as the SSTs warm up quickly and the continued higher global temperature trend increases the numbers of hurricanes over a normal season, though not as extreme as we saw last year. The likely hood of lots of named storms is high, but I don't expect them to be as strong systems.
Here are my winter numbers, unchanged: 23/9/2
Now, first storm: The cool spring will delay the start slightly, so I expect the first names storm in the 3rd week of June.
| ltpat228 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri May 19 2006 09:55 PM |
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Re: May Updates
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Quote:
time to make may updates.
I've lived in Florida since I was born 52 years ago.
We have hurricanes every year.
I do not second guess, nor predict, how Mother Nature will perform.
She does what she does.
She does it well.
And as a Floridian, I accept her.
This is something that we do every year. It is not done seriously, however, it does match our guesstimates against the 'numbers' provided by professional outlets. Our intent is to encourage participation, not discourage it. If you don't intend to post your thoughts on seasonal numbers, don't make a post in this thread.
| dolfanblondie |
| (Registered User) |
| Mon May 22 2006 04:03 PM |
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Re: May Updates
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I think I will try this year. My numbers - 19/10/5
I have been a professional lurker so I hope I have learned a lot from you guys and plan to learn a lot more this year.
| madmumbler |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed May 24 2006 11:34 AM |
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Re: may updates *DELETED*
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Post deleted by Ed Dunham
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu May 25 2006 09:44 PM |
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Re: may updates *DELETED*
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Post deleted by Ed Dunham
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu May 25 2006 09:46 PM |
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Re: may updates
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I forgot the prediction.. =0) I'm saying 21/11/4 .. First named storm on June 24th. .. hopefully, I'm going to Miami the first week of June.
| madmumbler |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat May 27 2006 01:51 PM |
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Re: may updates *DELETED*
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Post deleted by Ed Dunham
| Lysis |
| (User) |
| Sat May 27 2006 06:32 PM |
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Re: may updates
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Hello everyone! While I never paid much attention to the supposed baroclinic super powers of love-bugs (who are probably too busy procreating on my windshield to care), I must digress I was half expecting an early season storm before the month’s end… but lo, the likelihood for such an event is rapidly diminishing; I shall surrender Alberto to sometime before June 15.
I am most likely leaving the state for college in the spring term, so this is in many respects my last season for now.
My numbers are:
15/7/3
Everyone ready? : )
| PutnamGator |
| (Registered User) |
| Sun May 28 2006 01:07 AM |
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Re: may updates *DELETED*
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Post deleted by Ed Dunham
| Joe |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun May 28 2006 04:57 AM |
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Re: may updates
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I'll go 15 / 9 / 4, first named storm June 27th.
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon May 29 2006 12:09 PM |
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Re: may updates *DELETED*
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Post deleted by Ed Dunham
| poolwatcher |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Mon May 29 2006 06:55 PM |
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Re: may updates *DELETED*
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Post deleted by Ed Dunham
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Tue May 30 2006 05:57 AM |
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Re: may updates
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lots of off topic stuff on this thread. oh bother. i guess i could be grumpy about it, but a messy room isn't the end of the world.
reminder that today, may 30th, is the deadline to add your take. the colostate bunch will issue their update tomorrow. they might slash a storm or two, but i doubt they'll make any significant changes.
HF 0657z30may
| poolwatcher |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed May 31 2006 03:22 PM |
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Re: may updates
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WIth absolutely no training, I am relying upon my Ouija Board (jus kiddin) and will plunge in anyway--chances of being right are greater than winning Powerball, afterall:
Twenty Tropical Storms
Nine Hurricanes
Five Hurricanes Cat 2 or greater
August: First Hurricane to Threaten Florida
Sept and October Two Hurricanes Hit Florida and One Tropical Storm
Florida Definitely gets Hit during the season
Gulf Coast Definitely gets hit
New England barely dodges a Hurricane and gets flooded by heavy rain on the outer bands.
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Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Sat Jun 10 2006 06:00 PM |
Administrative Note
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Just a reminder that the Storm Forum, like the Main Page, is a strictly moderated Forum. Off-topic posts will be edited or deleted. Please attempt to stay on-topic in this Forum.
Thanks,
ED
what'd i tell ya'll about ed, now? i opted to let the offtopic stuff ride and he still went and cleaned house. the man sticks to the rules, i tell ya.
anyhow, since the thread is locked i'll just edit the results in. tpratch had the closest day guessed at june 17th. alberto was named on the 11th. wingman51 guessed week 2 of june, which isn't specific (geez, just guess a day in week 2...), but technically falls closer. so, thanks to people not following rules to the T, we have no clear winner. yaay. -HF 0247z15june