Ed DunhamAdministrator
(Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator)
Wed Aug 30 2006 09:06 PM
Area of Interest - Central Atlantic

Small tropical low near 17.5N 48W at 31/00Z moving west at 10 knots. Convection has blossomed in the past 5 hours. Shear is currently light, but expected to increase in about 36 hours. SST about 28C. System has some potential for additional development in a couple of days. Something new to watch.
ED


craigm
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Aug 31 2006 10:53 AM
Re: Area of Interest - Central Atlantic

Getting busy in the Atlantic. Here are two more areas where I'm seeing some vorticity. 44W 18N and 34W 13N. I'm sure we'll see our next invest out of one these areas of convection soon or both.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html


Ryan
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Aug 31 2006 12:12 PM
Re: Area of Interest - Central Atlantic

144 hours out onGFS, CMC, and NOGAPS and the 120 hours out on FSU all show a cape verde system with a pressure about 996 mb. What do people think about this?

BillyG60
(Registered User)
Thu Aug 31 2006 12:47 PM
Re: Area of Interest - Central Atlantic

Cant find any info about thst blob north of PR. Is it upper level low?

Billy


Bee-Beep
(Verified CFHC User)
Thu Aug 31 2006 01:38 PM
Re: Area of Interest - Central Atlantic

I am quite sure that it is an upper level-low. Looking at the ITCZ, things seem to be heating up. Still, dry air & shear has been the big reason for less storms this season.

http://image.weather.com/images/sat/tropsat_720x486.jpg


Black Pearl
(Weather Watcher)
Thu Aug 31 2006 03:15 PM
Re: Area of Interest - Central Atlantic

There has been an increase in convection over the last 4 hours at 13N / 35 W. Any thoughts?

Central Atlantic - AVN


Ed DunhamAdministrator
(Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator)
Thu Aug 31 2006 03:54 PM
Re: Area of Interest - Central Atlantic

This tropical wave has good structure (actual latitude is about 10N) but it will soon encounter some modest wind shear. It does however have some chance for additional development in a couple of days.

It is worth noting that the African continent itself looks quite barren this evening - highly unusual for this time in the season.
ED


craigm
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Aug 31 2006 05:30 PM
Re: Area of Interest - Central Atlantic

Nws/TPC High seas forecasts pick up on a couple of features we have been talking about,GFS, CMC and UKMET initialize what were seeing around 10N. Send it NW looking for weakness in the ridge only CMC does anything with it, morphs it together with the stronger wave that the other models develop. CMC is a strange model always seems to over develop systems.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/pub/forecasts/marine/MIAHSFAT2


rmbjoe1954
(Weather Master)
Fri Sep 01 2006 04:35 PM
Re: Area of Interest

I wonder how much weight was given to atmospheric conditions being affected by the general dry conditions as well as the amount of Saharan dust off Africa? Surely these must have been considered in trending the number of storms for the season. If not- I wonder if there is a way of incorporating these factors for future predictions.

I wonder how this will impact on the new 98L (13N/35W ) and the others off Africa?


Ed DunhamAdministrator
(Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator)
Sat Sep 02 2006 09:31 AM
Re: Area of Interest - Invest 99L

This small tropical low has finally developed and maintained convection and has now been identified as Invest 99L. The system is passing through the southern Leeward Islands. Although not the best of environments, some slow development is possible as the system moves to the west and west northwest.
ED



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