Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Fri Sep 01 2006 05:08 PM |
Area of Interest - Invest 98L
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Active tropical wave, with a hint of a low level circulation near 11.5N 39W at 01/21Z, moving to the west at about 12 knots. The system is still rather disorganized and is embedded in a narrow strip of light wind shear. Stronger shear to the north of the system is expected to relax over the next couple of days, so the system has some chance for additional slow development. It will be interesting to see what the next wind shear forecast looks like for the Atlantic basin. Movement should be to the west, however although some models currently move the wave to the west northwest, the strong Atlantic ridge may actually move the system a little south of due west.
Also of interest is a large area of Saharan dust that exited the African continent a few days ago (and still is). This dust shield extends westward to about 18N 49W at the moment, so if Invest 98L develops at all, I think that the process will be a slow one. At any rate it seems to be the only significant player on the field at the moment.
ED
| Ryan |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Sep 02 2006 01:33 AM |
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Re: Area of Interest - Invest 98L
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on http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ they have the different models and loops and such.
144h frame on CMC anc UKMET show a system witha pressure of about 1000mb. The 120h on the FSU shows a storm with pressure of about 996mb. And finally, invest 98l on GFDL has a cat one storm moving northwest on september 7th.
i think 98L needs eyes kept on it as it treks across open waters. This could become Florence if the models are right.