Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Thu Jul 05 2007 12:27 PM |
Forecast Updates
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Yesterday (07/04) TSR issued their revised forecast of seasonal activity in the Atlantic basin and lowered their expectations to 15/8/4. Given what is now expected for ENSO conditions, it would not surprise me at all to see them further lower their expectations again next month.
This morning NCEP issued their updated 6-month forecast of anticipated SST conditions. They now (once again) anticipate a strong La Nina to be in place by August and maintain it at strong to moderate strength for the remainder of the year. The forecast also continues the trend of slightly cooler than normal conditions off the southeast U.S. coast and in the eastern tropical Atlantic.
Latest 6-month SST Forecast
Coupled with a resultant increase in tropical trade winds, this usually translates to an active season - but not a highly active one. If the strong La Nina materializes, statistically there is only about a 12% chance for a highly active season.
Cheers,
ED
| HURRICANELONNY |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Jul 05 2007 05:33 PM |
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Re: Forecast Updates
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It seems every year TSR starts dropping there #'s. Now I'm worried I'll get hit again.
| MrSpock |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 07 2007 01:52 AM |
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Re: Forecast Updates
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Boy, it's been a while since I've posted here, I don't know where I've been lol
IMHO, I don't see any sort of strong la nina during the summer. The CFS has had trouble with the SSTA magnitude, and with recent SOI trends, that could continue longer, it would seem to run counter to what the model is showing. The SOI has been slightly negative of late, but was very negative just recently (after a string of very strong positives).
I did a study last year that showed that the teleconnection pattern that favored the most activity, and landfalls of named storms on the east coast, happened with a -PDO, +AMO, and neutral-cold ENSO conditions. Some of that is common sense though, as there should be more activity with a +AMO, and neutral-cold ENSO.
One thing that I found most interesting was the AMO/ENSO numbers. A -AMO/+ENSO averaged about 7 named storms per year, whereas a +AMO/+ENSO averages about 11 storms per year. That was the biggest difference in combinations that was seen, 4 extra storms over the -AMO is huge. Last year, 11 named storms. (I still think one should have been named). That showed me the importance of the AMO, which is running postive.
A couple months ago, I went with 16/9/4, and I will stay with that for now.
Jack
| HURRICANELONNY |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Jul 08 2007 02:58 PM |
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Re: Forecast Updates
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I never knew about the AMO and the #'s. Good to know. As for 16 names that sounds about right. As for landfalls. Who knows. No 2005 and no 2006. Other then that. I'd be the first to say I have no clue. This year has got me a little baffled.